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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal
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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal

  #111 (permalink)
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Well that was quite a fall to about $9.64. the good news is

1. that I got my bid price at $9.92
2. that I did not yield to emotion and chase that stock in early morning to buy it at the HOD of $10.11

the bad news is that it kept falling to eventually halt at $9.64

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It could be that this run since the end of Feb may be entering a consolidation phase but this does not bother me long term. I can find no news explaining this fall and I note that most other O&G stocks also suffered a dip today so my analysis is the same...for what it is worth ESN.TO suffered a similar drop down over 5% today whereas BXE.to dropped half that percentage.

Life goes on.

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BXE.TO, Gold and KLS.V

a) BXE.TO

well BXE.To rebounded to end today at $9.96....so fater this roller coaster ride of the last 2 days we are back where we almost started...we are in the black to the tune of a nickel on this stock. as you can see the chart looks good again.

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You can see how the MACD and BBwidth have resumed their positive slopes and the Slow Sto remains above 80

And this is important to observe...simply the fact that the share price plummeted is not a reason to panic if the indicators give a muted response.

See how the Slow Sto remains in the so-called "overbought" region. It has been there for about a month...If you were a follower of a Slow Sto with these parameters and nothing else...this would have been a month long sell signal traditionally. But wanting the other indicators in this chart to arrive at a consensus is important.

Normally the Slow Sto, leads the way whether it is a bullish or bearish situation...the fact that the Slow Sto remains stuck above the value of over 80 in the Slow Sto is good....I would be more worried if the value of the Slo Sto dropped under 80.

So I believe this is the start of higher share prices

b) Gold

Well Gold stalled again and so has my gold stocks as can be seen in the following chart

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The recent fall of the share price allows us to draw a diagonal resistance line...as well as showing us a primary support line (which seems strong due to the number of touches and rebound.

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you can see the support and resistance levels in the above chart....there is a pinch coming and there should be a break up/down coming.

NOTE the position of BBwidth right now.....it is poised above 4 which is where breakouts occur...with the slope of the line it is clear to me that the break/up/down of this spot price of gold will occur in the next 5-10 business days

c) KLS.V

Keep an eye on this stock....it is making its way through the current consolidation in a very strong manner. as can been seen here.

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Keeping in mind what I had said about the BBwidth and spot price of Gold.... the break up/down of KLS.V will not happen for 2-3 weeks right now....I hope it makes a dip below $5.00 where it was last was before we sold it, If it does then I will scratch up some fantasy money (probably by selling NDN.TO)

But we shall wait.

Underexposed

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  #113 (permalink)
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Ok...I am pretty pat with my fantasy portfolio right now...

there are some issues with the stocks in this group but it will be a week or so before a real decision needs to be made...Specifically with my gold stocks (BTO.TO and SSL.TO) which depends on the rise of the price of gold and my health services stock Nordion Inc (NDN.TO) which is supposed to be going to be sold at about $13cdn/share but the stock retreated to $12.42 from $12.75 AND the stockholder vote on the sale was to be two weeks from now and is now postponed to some time in June (this smells rotten to me)

So...I am building a watch list for this portfolio.

As I mentioned above I have Kelso Technologies [TSXV:KLS] on watch while it goes through consolidation.

But I need a few others....

I know there are members that regularly read my posts as I see the numbers of views rise with each new post.

I wonder if anyone would like to suggest a stock to keep a watch on...it can be American or Canadian. Only Canadian stocks would be considered for the fantasy portfolio here but in reality I do also have a small USA dollar account so I do have interest in American stocks as well.

So...If you have a stock that you wish to suggest have an opinion. I would love to do a complete reading...looking at basic fundamentals of the stock as well as the full monty on the charts that I use. I think that would be instructive and it helps me as well.

Why does it help us? Well beyond the obvious that we find a really good opportunity to invest, it also improves my stock analysis (and hopefully yours as well). I have done this in other websites many many times with pretty good results. Also when I do these readings I find new and better ways of looking at things...this is how my analysis has evolved to the state it is today.

So feel free to offer a stock ticker for us to look at...

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Apr 16/2014 state of the Union

the following table shows that we are very slightly negative for the week at this point.

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The major problem is the price of gold affecting B2Gold and Sandstrom Gold. Where it rising these stocks would be rising as well.. I don't feel worried about them at present.

No takers on my offer to do a chart reading??? What have you to lose to test me???

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  #115 (permalink)
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Here's a penny that worth a look.

Tree Island Steel. TSL.TO

Recovering from the housing crash. Not much market for nails when no one is building houses. The cut their dividend a few years back and are slowly digging there way out of debt.

Revenues are increasing and debt is decreasing.

I own this one as a semi long term play.

It is hard to find the Truth when you start your search with a preconceived notion of what the Truth will be.
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deaddog View Post
Here's a penny that worth a look.

Tree Island Steel. TSL.TO

Recovering from the housing crash. Not much market for nails when no one is building houses. The cut their dividend a few years back and are slowly digging there way out of debt.

Revenues are increasing and debt is decreasing.

Thanks DD...Tree Island Steel used to be a Investment Trust it seems under the name Tree Island Wire Income Fund and I suppose it discontinued its distribution shortly after 2007 when such trusts were converted to normal companies when Harper flip flopped on his promise to allow such companies to continue.

Fundamental Analysis

I looked at its balance sheet and I find that their debt load has suddenly shifted from long term to short term. It is still the same amount for the last year (total debt of about $30million but now $16M is short term...I don't see a great reduction in the last year though annually it has reduced for the last 3 years.

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

From an income POV here is a summary of their income statements for the last year on a quarterly basis

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

their operating income seems to be fairly constant at about $35-40Million. this last reported quarter sees them hit with a pretty high "interest expense". This affected their bottom line severely sending them into the red. Is that because of the re-alignment of half of their debt to short term...I don't know without digging more into their last report.

in their news there is an announcement of a reverse split coming

http://www.treeisland.com/sites/default/files/news-release/2014-03-14%20Tree%20I...hare%20Consolidation.pdf

this split has not been ratified yet...that will be done on May 14th.

While it is true that a reverse split does not change your holding equity in the company other than having fewer shares...I am not a great fan of being in a stock that has such an announcement. personally speaking.

I do see what you mean about the company retiring debt now....this has come in the new year and is not reported in any quarterly report yet.

News Releases | Tree Island Steel

Technical analysis

1) Point and Figure chart

I usually start with P&F chart...this gives a good overview of the stock's performance and is useful in establishing support/resistance levels.

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this stock certainly has given itself a rebirth since 2012 and recently it has performed well since August of 2013 when it was $0.55

Right now however, it is dancing on the horizontal support line at $1.10 and March has seen a rise to $1.38 and the price has fallen to its present level at $1.10... If this support fails then the next support will be at $0.93 and that looks to be a very solid support. The resistance above its current position is between $1.20-1.23

Note the computer generated warning in the upper left (Double bottom breakdown). this is because the share price breached that $1.10 support in April though it has recovered since.

Conclusion: mildly bearish current support $1.10, secondary support $0.93 / resistance $1.20 - 1.23

2) Trigger Chart

I call this a trigger chart because it tells me when a break up/down will probably occur as well as when a rise or fall in a current run may end.

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you can see the drift in that sales price...that 50daySMA acted as a support for a while but that appears to be breaking down...the price has fallen below the 50daySMA and now it seems to be a resistance line.

The Slow Sto is as low as it can go almost....it has been in decline since early March ...... Bearish

The MACD has also been in decline for the same period of time and now fallen below zero ...... Bearish

The BBwidth is interesting....if you look at previous lows the current position of the BBwidth is as low as it has ever been....I am amazed that a breakout has not occurred yet....it this case it would be a bearish breakout

Right now...if the BBwidth turned positive there would be a sudden drop in price...you can see that secondary support at $0.93-0.95....that may catch a fall as it is strong but it could fall further to around $0.85 too.

Conclusion: Bearish

3) Sentiment chart

I call this my sentiment chart as it gives me an idea of whether a future move may be positive or negative.

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My immediate impression looking at this chart is neutrality

the swings of the CMF have settled down there are no extremes any more for a couple of months...either good or bad..... Neutral

The RSI slope has settled out at 50 and flatlined there...but it was negative in getting there so.... Neutral Bearish

The ADX DI +/- is slowly tightening....it is still bullish but that strength is declining daily ... it is not showing a bearish cross YET where the red crosses green...but it could happen in a heartbeat..... Neutral Bullish

Conclusion: Neutral

3) Ichimoku chart plus

By plus, I mean I added two more indicators at the bottom.

The On Bal Volume is dead-assed neutral

The CCI is bearish neutral...it is not into the mud but flirting with it.

The Ichimoku chart itself shows the price mired in a green cloud... the lower border is a support and if it falls below that cloud it would not be good as the fight to rise above that cloud would be rough....Look at the thin red and blue lines...the red is at the top of the green cloud while the blue is buried in the green and diverging. This is quite bearish suggesting to me that the price will soon break through the bottom of the cloud. ....Bearish

Conclusion: Bearish

Overall Conclusion

This is a company that requires a real turnaround in the economy to reach its pre-2008 levels. However, in Canada construction is on the rebound but it is tenuous....you can see that in their operating revenue which is pretty consistent quarter to quarter. But in looking at their website then certainly have a great construction product mix...it is not just nails...it is wire for fencing, rebar ties and meshes...etc. They will always make money and as a long term bet it is probably not bad.

However, on a short term basis...there is a correction coming. It could be profit taking....it could be negative reaction to the proposed 2:1 reverse split in May...Personally I hate reverse splits but I can see them wanting to stay afloat above $1.00 now that they battled there.

To me this is not a Buy right now as I think there is a correction coming.....long term it might be fine and perhaps you could use the dip to add to your position....If it were me I would take my profits and then watch them for the eventual turnaround and buy in again.

There is a correction coming IMHO and it could happen any day.

I hope this analysis helps you.

PS: I see that TCM.TO has staged a nice recovery from a low of $2.35 and it will challenge that resistance at $3.20- 3.25...I think it will stop there...again though.

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  #117 (permalink)
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portfolio as of April 18

the following table shows our status as of Good Friday Apr 18 (no trading today)

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We basically broke even this week. The boat anchor in this portfolio are the gold stocks - BTO.TO and SSL.TO.

So why don't I sell them?? Answer: I have not given up on the price of gold...consider the following chart.

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You can see the resistance/support triangle that has formed. We are hugging the support line right now but we are approaching the apex of this triangle so the price can break up or down at any time

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This chart shows the Bollinger Bands (BBs) are finally getting tight to the point that a breakout can happen. The previous rise in price happened during consolation time....during this time it aims at the 20daySMA In this case it overshot it but as you can see it now has fallen back to this point. The On Bal Vol is basically neutral...the CCI is bearishly neutral but it is being in that cloud that is a nuisance

Is it not prime for a breakout??? No, it is not!!!

The slow Sto and MACD must lead the way first....if the BBs were to diverge now (BBwidth suddenly rises) this would not be good as the Slow Sto and MACD are currently negative slope. The spot price is in a decent position right now as it is right near the 20daySMA...if it were hugging the lower BB I would be more anxious

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this is a pretty neutral so far....the CMF is improving from the depths of the mud....the RSI is very flat on the 50 line and the ADX DI+/- avoided a bearish cross at the last minute but all these indicators could change in a heartbeat...either way.

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The Ichimoku chart shows the real problem....We are stuck in that green cloud.

Going back to that FinViz chart you see I created a dotted blue line....in the event we get a bullish breakout I see that line as a resistance to be passed $1350....well the top of that green cloud is also $1350 confirming that resistance point....this constantly fascinates me how 2 completely different charts arrive at a similar conclusion. The borders of any cloud are resistance/support levels depending on the direction of the price. Green clouds are better than red ones...but you want to be above all clouds.

I am encouraged by the thin blue/red lines...the blue is rising to the flat red one...it is a long way to being bullish but at least the two lines are not diverging anymore.

So...the upshot of this is....I have not given up on the Golds....especially with the situation with Russia right now. Amazing how the media controls our focus on world events...you hardly hear of anything about the Middle East lately.

Have a good long weekend

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updating TSL.TO analysis

I am redoing this analysis with an update...I don't know what happened to my charts in that previous post...somehow they disappeared or I never embedded them in the first place ({sigh} alzheimer's is a terrible disease

I will start with my previous conclusion


Underexposed View Post
However, on a short term basis...there is a correction coming. It could be profit taking....it could be negative reaction to the proposed 2:1 reverse split in May...Personally I hate reverse splits but I can see them wanting to stay afloat above $1.00 now that they battled there.

To me this is not a Buy right now as I think there is a correction coming.....long term it might be fine and perhaps you could use the dip to add to your position....If it were me I would take my profits and then watch them for the eventual turnaround and buy in again.

There is a correction coming IMHO and it could happen any day.

Well as I predicted that correction did not take long to happen....today is the day it starts for real as you will see in the following charts.

1) P&F chart

the first is my P&F chart which I use to establish support/resistance on a macro level

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Here is my previous conclusion on this chart


Underexposed View Post

Right now however, it is dancing on the horizontal support line at $1.10 and March has seen a rise to $1.38 and the price has fallen to its present level at $1.10... If this support fails then the next support will be at $0.93 and that looks to be a very solid support. The resistance above its current position is between $1.20-1.23

Note the computer generated warning in the upper left (Double bottom breakdown). this is because the share price breached that $1.10 support in April though it has recovered since.

Conclusion: mildly bearish current support $1.10, secondary support $0.93 / resistance $1.20 - 1.23

Well as you can see that tenuous support at $1.10 has really broken now...this now becomes the resistance...it should be a tough support as we were dancing on the edge of $1.10 for a long time as a support...we are headed now toward the $0.93 support now

2) Trigger Chart

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here is my previous conclusion on this chart that I use to show a break up/down.


Underexposed View Post
The Slow Sto is as low as it can go almost....it has been in decline since early March ...... Bearish

The MACD has also been in decline for the same period of time and now fallen below zero ...... Bearish

The BBwidth is interesting....if you look at previous lows the current position of the BBwidth is as low as it has ever been....I am amazed that a breakout has not occurred yet....it this case it would be a bearish breakout

Right now...if the BBwidth turned positive there would be a sudden drop in price...you can see that secondary support at $0.93-0.95....that may catch a fall as it is strong but it could fall further to around $0.85 too.

Conclusion: Bearish

well the bearish conclusion has proven itself....see the Slow Sto has flattened out (cannot go much lower) the negative slope to the MACD has accelerated now and there is a slight upturn to the BBwidth slope

this is the beginnings of the bearish slide

3) Sentiment chart

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Underexposed View Post
I call this my sentiment chart as it gives me an idea of whether a future move may be positive or negative.

My immediate impression looking at this chart is neutrality

the swings of the CMF have settled down there are no extremes any more for a couple of months...either good or bad..... Neutral

The RSI slope has settled out at 50 and flatlined there...but it was negative in getting there so.... Neutral Bearish

The ADX DI +/- is slowly tightening....it is still bullish but that strength is declining daily ... it is not showing a bearish cross YET where the red crosses green...but it could happen in a heartbeat..... Neutral Bullish

not much change in the CMF but the RSI has dipped below 50 and shows a new neg slope and in the ADX DI +/- is now showing the beginning of a bearish cross...the red has now crossed the green so it is mildly bearish now...if the red keeps rising and green keeps falling the sentiment will be increasing bearish.

3) Ichimoku chart plus

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The On Bal Volume is dead-assed neutral

The CCI is bearish neutral...it is not into the mud but flirting with it.

The Ichimoku chart itself shows the price mired in a green cloud... the lower border is a support and if it falls below that cloud it would not be good as the fight to rise above that cloud would be rough....Look at the thin red and blue lines...the red is at the top of the green cloud while the blue is buried in the green and diverging. This is quite bearish suggesting to me that the price will soon break through the bottom of the cloud. ....Bearish

Well the OnBal Volume is unchanged for now but the CCI has bearishly retreated into the mud.

The Ichimoku chart really changed....it is full on bear now....it has broken through the lower border of the green cloud. Being under a green cloud is better than being under a red one but not by much IMHO

Conclusion

well, there you have it...one for one so far...though I am sorry that it is bearish for Deaddog. Of course this could be a head fake and it could turn around but I don't think so. I definitely think it will challenge the $0.93 level. At that point one would take a look to see if the fall will stop there....

Would it reverse at that point? Not necessarily so. Usually (as with a positive run) at the end of a run the price will drift back to the 20daySMA where it will wander around it until the BBWidthget low again (ie. Bollinger bands tighten) and we must then evaluate if this would be a rest and further fall or a reversal.

If anyone else has a ticker to look at feel free. Though I don't have all my tools available for European charts I do have alternate charting available to try non-North American stocks though they present more of a challenge to me....I like challenges though

PS: In taking the quotation I find that the charts were there but not displayed...so I did not forget. Perhaps there were too many...I don't know

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If you look at my "State of the Union" for this phantom portfolio you will see that I have $2800 or so in cash on hnad.

I was screening for stocks in the $1 - $3 range and Kinda like Silvercorp Mining [TSX:SVM]

I won't do a complete analysis here right now due to time constraints but I will do later. I will say that this is a bottomfeeding play on a silver/gold mining stock in China which has no debt and makes money but with the depressed prices on Silver/Gold and production issues that may be resolved it looks to be recovering.

I will show this "trigger chart" of mine and it looks ripe for a positive breakout

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the MACD has been rising steadily, the Slow Sto looks to be breaking out, the BBwidth is VERY LOW...the BBs are tighter than ever and a breakout or down is pending RFN.

This is a bit of a flyer and probably will be a swing trade of a few weeks at most but who knows

I will enter an order for 1000 shares of Silvercorp Mining [TSX:SVM] @ $2.20/share valid for this week

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I caught the Silvercorp Mining order at the opening...it closed at $2.26 so we are off to a good start.

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