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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal
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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal

  #101 (permalink)
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catching up on stuff

I have been away for a couple of days so this is the time to catch up. The major issue this week was the sale of Kelso Technologies KLS.V.

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As you can see this is the first sale for a capital gain...but a nice one it was as it wiped out the other losses. Though this is a one month hold, KLS was a swing trade for me...I really feel this company (which upgrades railway oil tankers) is a long term hold. In my real holdings (as opposed to this fantasy one) I sold as well. It is a huge experiment for me as I don not normally sell after a run and rebuy on a dip....

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So far this stock is not behaving as though this run is over. It should be headed back to the 20daySMA but it is not. As far as consolidation goes it is acting still pretty bullish as the Slo Sto is still high and the MACD is not declining. I will kick myself around the block if it does not dip enough to buy it again cheaper than I sold it for. My relationship with this company is not over...but I do not chase stocks...I will wait for a narrowing of the Bollinger Bands.

Here is the cash transactions for this account to date.

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As you can see I have $28k, jingling in my pocket. I will have to decide what to do with it ...I will probably do this over the weekend. You will note at the top there is a spot for dividends. Bonavista Energy [TSX:BNP] is responsible for the entry there for $35.00. I will get another dividend for the same amount in a week or so....I will also get a dividend from TD Bank this month as well.

As you can see, BNP is performing very well

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It is at 11+% gain so far not including dividends....there are more gains to come.

Is Gold on the move??

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Well the plummet of last month has halted and the spot price has done as expected in that it has risen to the 20daySMA. Today (not shown here) the price is breaking through that 20daySMA but the next real serious resistance is at $1350 as discussed in my Apr 4 post.

The Slo Sto and the MACD are trending positive now which is good but a breakout is not there until the BBwidth falls to around 5....so I expect the price to wander sideways for a while as this happens. Having said this though my Gold stocks are recovering .

More tomorrow......

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  #102 (permalink)
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revisiting Lundin Mining [TSX:LUN]

Back in February when I first started this journal I discussed this company

https://futures.io/trading-journals/30636-underexposed-canadian-stock-journal-3.html#post390542

We put play money into it at that time but it did not work out and in Early March I sold it taking a 5% loss. (see the company history table in the previous post.

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Well the stock has recovered as can be seen above ...It is challenging that solid resistance at $5.40...as I discussed in that previous post...IF it passes this resistance we will see a bullish run and this continued attack looks good to me.

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the signs are all there for the breakout....see the rising Slo Sto...the rising MACD and in the last 2 days the sudden rise in the BBwidth (the Bollinger bands expansion.) there is our buy signal

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this is a confirming chart...note the rising slope to the RSI...the bullish divergence of the ADX DI+/- and the improved CMF.

It is April 11 9:50 MST and I will enter a limit bid at $5.38 for 2000 shares of LUN.TO

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  #103 (permalink)
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Oooops I jumped the gun on that bid

I checked a L2 chart with a 5 min interval on LUN.TO

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So it has dropped to $5.33...so this will be my limit bid price

2000 shares at $5.33 for Lundin Mines [TSX:LUN]

NOTE: Always check real time in L2 before placing your bid....I try to do this

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  #104 (permalink)
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Why I like LUNDIN Mines...continued

Well I got my Lundin Mining at $5.33 as I said....in reality I also added it to my REAL portfolio as well.

I have explained my reasoning earlier but I thought I would reinforce it with a look at an more coarse P&F chart

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Yes I know that we have approached this $5.40 resistance before...but this coarser view shows you how important this resistance is. See how long this resistance level has been in existence...it dates back to Jan/2012...2 years!!!! It is like the Great wall of China, IMHO

This is not a money losing pump and dump...this mining company MAKES money and has a reasonable debt

Balance Sheet

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

You can see that this company carries very little debt at a combined Short and long term debt of $4 million

Income Statement

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

You can see that over that past 3 quarters a steady increase in operating revenue, gross profit and net revenue (net revenue increase from $17Million to $44Million.

Not too shabby for a base metal mine of Copper, Zinc, Lead and Nickel

So what has been holding this company's price back....well, when you are considering a mining stock you have to consider the price of the commodity(s) it mines and the prices of these metals have been depressed for the last few years.

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See how the metal prices are still depressed over the past 5 years...all of them.

Look at the 6 month charts....see how there was a spike in Lead Zinc Nickle prices in February...that is where we made Our first purchase in this blog....then the prices for all metals except Nickel fell hard....and the price for LUN.TO did as well.

Now look at the 60 day charts...all of the metals are rising again...so this company will get more money for their efforts..(or at least that is the theory )

SO .... for me anyway....the risk of this resistance causing another failure is worth the reward for the potential gain if we pass and close above $5.40.

I could sit back and wait for that closure over $5.40...if I was conservative that is what I would do...it is depends on your tolerance for risk.

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  #105 (permalink)
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State of the union April 11/14

I meant to do this in the last post but got carried away discussing Lundin Mining

Here is the status of the play money account

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We lost a bit of ground this week but then the DJI, NASD, TSX and TSXVenture indices have not been going gang busters either.

Nordion [TSX:NDN] is a bit of a puzzle. I would have expected to see the price edge to selling price ($13.00 CDN) of the company since it was announced to be sold a week or so ago....but instead it has been falling back a little.

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Quotes and Symbols

Hmmm...there seems to be a change in plan....they have postponed the meeting to vote on the sale until June from the planned date of April 29....this may not be the slam dunk they thought it would be. I will still hang on.

The price of Gold edges higher but seems to have trouble with a minor resistance at $1320...it will be interesting to see if it rises higher as the stock indices fall.

I have given up for now chasing Noranda Income Fund...instead of falling to $5.10 it has risen and I don't expect it to fall to that point any more....I will study to see if the timing is right to buy at the current price over the weekend. Otherwise I will look for another stock

Have a good weekend

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  #106 (permalink)
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Found another stock to buy

I have various sources for finding stock. I use various screeners provided by my trading platform, TD Waterhouse. They have quite a few...most of them I don't think of very much but if they return stocks with prices between $1-$10 which is my usual hunting range

then I will check out their fundamentals...My rules here are pretty simple:

when looking at their balance sheets/income statements.

- If they have no debt but no income...I reject them..this happens often in exploration companies for metals and oil....they are selling dreams and I am not much of a dreamer.

- If they have some debt but have at least operating income (they don't have to make a profit...yet) I will check them out further. If they are losing money then I want to see less and less loss with each quarter, this indicates to me anyway that the company is struggling to become profitable.

this is common with startup mines and Oil and Gas operations...there are debts incurred from building infrastructure while developing a mine or suite of O&G wells...it takes time to pay this debt off and you can find some nice $1-$5 so-called pennies this way.

- If they have increasing debt...even though they are making good coin, I want to dig deeper to find out why...If it is not due to expansion or some other good reason that is easy to find I reject them. If their net income can service that debt...I might do a TA on their shares.

I also look at expert opinion, primarily from this site that takes excerpts of expert comment from a number of business news sources.

Viewing Expert Jeff Parent B. Eng. FCSI | StockChase

Jeff Parent is a TA type of guy, so I like looking at his comments but there are several others that I like. As you can see these people comment on a number of companies...I don't really like their most recent comments...I like predictions they have made a couple of months earlier....then I first check out to see how their predictions went with reality...if they are pretty consistent with what really happened then they join my list of trusted experts on this site

But I don't just take that one expert opinion and act on it...I click on the company name or ticker and read all the other expert opinions commenting on this company and arrive at a consensus

Once I find a stock in the range I like and if it passes the fundamental sniff test....then I will do a full suite of technical charts that I have developed and take a consensus of the indicators/overlays and if the timing looks right...I will make a purchase or put the stock on a watch list til the the true colors of their direction is revealed.

I am looking at a couple of stocks now

Essential Energy Services Ltd [TSX:ESN] - an oilfield services/drilling company.
Bellatrix Exploration Ltd. [TSX:BXE} - An Alberta natural gas company

Both are liked by Mr. Parent and they pass my fundamental sniff test...I will make a decision by trading day Monday and show the charts of the winner..

Edit: I guess my title for this post jumped the gun a bit....I have narrowed it down to two stocks...but not picked one yet.

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  #107 (permalink)
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ok...time to make a decision on which to put this fantasy money into.

First, fundamentally it is hard to choose a winner

Essential Energy Services Ltd [TSX:ESN]

Balance sheet...the company is carrying about $40million in debt but they have done so for about a year now

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

Income Statement - Operating revenue, Gross profit and Net revenue are rising nicely over the last 3 quarters.

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

Bellatrix Exploration Ltd. [TSX:BXE]

Balance sheet...the company is carrying about $40omillion in debt...ten times more than ESN.TO

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

Income Statement - Operating revenue, Gross profit and Net revenue are also rising nicely over the last 3 quarters but the Net revenue looks to be higher and more stable.

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

TA

Here are side by side comparison of their respective charts

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BXE is on a very bullish run since Jan 2013...there is support at $8.60 and now the resistance target is $12.00 which could be weak a stronger resistance can be found around $13.00.

By comparison ESN is recovering from a drop in price in Dec/Jan...but note the announcement of a Low Pole Warning this is a hint but not a definite that the stock will turn bullish soon. I take such computer announcements with a grain of salt but it is comforting to see such a prediction. Support is solid between $2.65 - $2.70...resistance is first at $3.05 (weak) and then $3.15 (stronger)

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Nothing bearish in either of these charts, both are on a bullish breakout.

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Things are bullish for the above chart too. Both charts have a positive slope to the RSI. The ADX DI+/- divergence is more pronounced in BXE than ESN. The CMF is better looking in the BXE but the CMF in ESN is pulling out of the mud...not a bad sign here

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Again...there is little to choose between these stocks in this Ichimoku chart and Onbal vol and CCI....

Conclusion:

I am going to go with Bellatrix Exploration Ltd. [TSX:BXE]....the P&F chart is what tips the scales for me....the price is above a resistance and looks forward to about a 20% gain before it reaches the next resistance.

Essential Energy Services Ltd [TSX:ESN] On the other hand must fight through some resistances in the short term before it can really start performing.

The income in BXE looks good to me..a higher debt than ESN but it looks fine from an outside view.

So at the opening on Monday Apr 14/14, I will make a limit bid for

1500 shares of Bellatrix Exploration Ltd. [TSX:BXE] @ $9.92

we shall see how this decision will go....ESN goes on my watch list to see if it passes that final resistance at $3.15

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  #108 (permalink)
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{sigh} I picked the right stock but it took off like a shot gaining 16 cents at the bell. I don't like chasing stocks. Iwill leave my bid open for the week...if the price falls back to near $10 or less I will consider purchasing it.

This is not the only stock around ESN has stayed flat...I will watch that one to see if it passes at least that first resistance I saw...If it does I will consider buying it as it will have a nice shot at a decent breakout.

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BXE is falling back

well not chasing is working out so far....the price is approaching $10 again

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I am following it in L2 here and it looks like it will go below $10....here kitty, kitty,kitty

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It looks like I will get my bid at $9.92

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I just took a quick look at this L2 chart and it is at $9.92 right now...Yippie!!!

the benefits of L2 chart monitoring and not falling to emotion and chasing a stock....Since this is a long term journal I have the luxury of taking my time...It could still fall further but I don't mind as I got the stock at a price of my choosing....this is a good stock and will rise in the future.

Nnnnniiiiiiccceee kitty

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