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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal
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Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal

  #91 (permalink)
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Well I am back from my short vacation to California. Had fun relaxing and playing with my one year old grandson. Left Canada with snowflakes falling after weeks of relative warmth....left 80degf weather to return to -9degc in Calgary and lots of snow on the ground....looks like I missed nothing weather-wise...hopefully I dragged some warm weather with me.

I made no adjustments to my portfolio and here is the status as of Friday March 21

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Well there is good news and bad news

Bad news first.....

well we lost a bit of profit over that week by losing 0.59% over the week. However, I am not unhappy with this as we had an amazing 3.10% in the previous week.

Secondly, the losses are mainly in the Gold stocks... BTO.TO lost about $1300.00 of profit but still remains over 5% profitable so with the world troubles such as they are I expect a rebound at some point. SSL.TO lost another $1300.00 of profit but remains over 6 % in the black.

Now the Good news..

KLS.V stepped up to the plate with nice gains as well as NDN.TO...DRX.TO which I though was under threat has recovered enough that it looks like it may turn profitable but I will still maintain the limited-stop loss on it for now though it may be raised later in proportion to gains until I feel it will be profitable.

I wonder about the retreat of the price of gold. I would have thought there would be a flight to it given the world situation in the Ukraine...but investors seem to be shrugging it off....for now anyways

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  #92 (permalink)
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Well another bad week but it did get better towards the end. Here is the state of the union at the end of this week

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As you can see ADF Trading Group (DRX.TO) fell back and tripped the Stop Loss....I still like this stock but this is obviously not its time.

I am still in the black but have been disappointed with the price of gold dropping as it has done over the last 10 days. The problems with Russia don't seem to bother investors it seems.

Futures Gold Chart Daily

I do see a support at about $1270 and I doubt Gold is headed down for long so I won't touch my gold stocks for now.

It did teach me a lesson....I like to get at least 20% for a return...If I had done that I would have captured the BTO.TO before it fell and saved $2000 profit ...then bought in again....the fall of BTO.TO has nothing to do with anything but the price of gold....and the same goes for SSL.TO

So with that in mind I have decided to place a limit Stop-Loss for Kelso Technologies [ KSL.V ]. Again I really like this company being that it manufactures upgrades to rail oil tankers...a problem that will not disappear.

Here is a recent chart for the last 5 days

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You can see that it is in a resistance /support channel

I will set the sell stop at $4.33/share....this will hopefully avoid a short term downward spike below the resistance. I do think this will be necessary as I think it will break positive through that resistance....But I RESOLVE to NOT let a 20% gain slip away like that.

Selling is the worst part of my game.

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  #93 (permalink)
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Surprise ... surprise


Well, I don't read the news very often on any stock I purchase but when something weird happens I want to know why. So imagine my pleasant surprise when Nordion [TSX:NDN] gapped from $11.50 to $12.75 today. over a 10% gain...yippeeee

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What the heck is going on??

So I check the news and I find this story out after hours on Friday


Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Quotes and Symbols

here is a quote from the story


Quoting 
Nordion Inc. (TSX:NDN) (NYSE:NDZ), a leading provider of products and services to the global health science market, announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement (the "Arrangement Agreement") to be acquired by Sterigenics, a global leader in sterilization services and a portfolio company of GTCR LLC, a leading private equity firm based in Chicago, Illinois, USA. Pursuant to this Arrangement Agreement, shareholders will receive an aggregate cash consideration of US$11.75 per share (collectively, the "Consideration"). Upon closing of this transaction, Nordion will operate as a standalone company within Sterigenics and will continue to operate under the Nordion name.

So...the company is being sold to Sterigenics for $11.75USD.

So...is it time to sell??? No...not yet....at today's exchange rate $11.75 in USD is $13.00 CAD so at $12.75 currently this stock should climb at least another $0.25 cdn and often there is an overshoot...so this will be fun to watch....I am guaranteed $13.00 so I can wait ... that gap will not back fill.

more details on the sale


Quoting 
"Nordion's Board of Directors fully and unanimously supports this transaction", said Bill Anderson, Chairman of the Board of Nordion. "The Management team, with direction from the Special Committee, undertook a comprehensive process to reach an outcome that the Board agrees delivers significant value to our shareholders and serves the best interest of our employees, customers and business."

Transaction Details
The Arrangement Agreement between Nordion and Sterigenics provides for a non-solicitation covenant on the part of Nordion, subject to customary "fiduciary out" provisions. A termination fee of US$12 million would be payable to Sterigenics in certain circumstances, including if it fails to exercise its right to match in the context of a superior proposal supported by Nordion, and a reverse break fee of US$24 million would be payable by Sterigenics to Nordion if the transaction is not completed in certain circumstances.

Ahhhhh....it is not a done-deal yet the action is "unanimously" supported by the Nordion Board....however it still must be ratified by the shareholders.

Note also that having made this agreement, Sterigenics is protecting itself if this deal is not consummated...either by abject rejection by the shareholders OR a competing bid for the company by another company.

So....this price will be AT LEAST $13.00 cdn.....if the shareholders get pissed I have seen the price bid above the bid price for the company since they feel that they are getting ripped off.


Quoting 
Nordion intends to make an application to the Commercial List of the Superior Court of Justice in Toronto, Ontario on or about March 31, 2014 for an order extending the time for calling and holding of the annual general meeting (the "AGM") currently scheduled to take place on April 29, 2014, such that the AGM would be held concurrently with the special meeting of shareholders to consider the transaction. Nordion will update and provide further details in respect of that matter in an upcoming news release.

So there is at least one month until the decision comes down. If the price rises to $13.00 ( or rather whatever the conversion of $11.75 USD comes to in CAD terms and does not rise further at the time of the meeting...I will sell as if there is no competing bid the shareholders will probably approve the sale. But if the share price rises higher or a higher competing bid appears...I will ride the wave a little further.

BTW...this stock has a USA listing of [NYSE:NDZ] for any Americans reading my journal.

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  #94 (permalink)
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In post #92 here I showed the resistance support channel for KLS.V. It had been bouncing along this channel for 3 days between $4.35 and $4.42 and it was uncertain as to whether the support or resistance line would be broken. Well today the stock rose to $4.55 so that question is answered.

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it looks to me that this current run is not over and this last few days was nothing more than a rest. As a result I am removing the stop-loss for now...I may reapply it in a few days at a higher level ....the $4.42 level appears to be a support right now.

I have almost $13,500 burning a hole in my pocket. I have been looking for a good high paying dividend stock and I have found one in the Noranda Income Fund [TSX:NIF.UN]

Here is the quote sheet for the stock

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Quotes and Symbols

If you check the dividend box under the stub yearly chart you will see that it produces a consistent monthly dividend of $0.042 (yield: 9.43%)

I don't consult expert opinion much but I did check out this site for opinion on NIF/UN.TO

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this is not a stock to flip for its capital growth....it grows at a snails pace....but a 9+% dividend yield that is stable is not something I ignore for a long term hold

I just looked at my free L2 chart and see the stock has fallen to $5.25....hmmmm....glad I checked first....so...it has been flirting with a high for the last 3 or so years and is pulling back now

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It may pull back to between $5.00 to $5.10....

I am going to set a limit bid for $5.10 for 2500 shares of Noranda Income Fund [TSX:NFI.UN] valid til April 14/14

I may adjust the price upward if there is not a continuation of this fall...but that is my bid right now

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  #95 (permalink)
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mid week status

Well this week has been a refreshing change from the last 2...we are back on track and making profits again

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Despite the fall in value of Gold which was a major cause for the decline for the previous 2 weeks, this week KLS.V and NDN.TO have stepped up to the plate with impressive gains.

It was touch and go as to whether KLS would rise or fall as see in that previous post I made which caused me to slap on a stop limit loss when the price was floating in a horizontal channel....however since exiting that channel, breaking the resistance the share price has gained almost $0.75 per share....

Is the run over for KLS??? here is one of the charts I use to evaluate that

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look at the Slow Sto....still pegged over 80....very flat with even a touch of an upturn. Slow Sto is USUALLY the first indication of stop to the run. When it starts trending with a negative slope I begin to think the end is nigh...but I don't really get concerned until it trends below 80...it depends on what I see in the next 2 indicators.

Look at the MACD....I don't use a signal line as you see....I find that the longer the timeframe the more useless the MACD signal line becomes....daytrading with a 1-5 minute interval....the signal line is very useful....but daily intervals always have late signals....it is much better to trend the MACD itself...As long as it has a non-negative slope it is all good...a zero slope is ok as long as the other indicators are not negative

Look at the BBwidth....see how the trend 3 days ago was pretty flat....and that sparked concern that perhaps the run was over....then looking at the intra-day chart showed the horizontal channel that had formed.

So it was not time to pull the plug unless there was a break on the support....I set the stop-loss as a precaution and was rewarded .

Currently I don't see the target as this stock is rocketing into the stratosphere....there is no past comparison.....So much for useless penny stocks under $5, eh. This is sort of true with American stocks....but Canadian stocks seem a lot different and $1 - $10 is my hunting ground.

An example of an end of the run is in this chart....November 19 shows what happens....see the slight neg slope to the Slo Sto....then the sharp break in the direction of the MACD and BBwidth.....that is a sell sign if you are swing trading....

I know I have some regular readers now

If you want me to discuss the way I evaluate buy/sell charting signals in more detail....just ask.

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  #96 (permalink)
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Wheeeeeeeee!!

Well there seems no stopping Kelso Industries [KLS.V]

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Quotes and Symbols

A gain of over 9% today so far with an hour of trading left.

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There is no sign in the indicators that this run has topped out. But I am concerned about a couple of things with this stock.

1.) The closing price today is quite far above the upper bollinger band. It has been above for a couple of days now and I would expect to see a pullback soon. .... This does not mean the run is over as it could move sideways or with a slight neg drift ....however it might plummet...so it is prudent to put in another Stop-loss again.

I am going to set a Limit Stop-loss on this stock at $5.20 -5.25 which is about 7% less than its current price of $5.68

If the price spikes like this tomorrow ....I will seriously consider selling and taking my profits....mainly because of #2 in my concerns.

2.) This stock is LONG over due for a quarterly report.

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

We should have seen a quarterly report in February for Dec/13....but we are going into April and no report.....that bothers me. I do like looking at revenue/debt info and it is not there

oooopps!!! I just looked at their website and found the Dec/13 annual report which was issued on March 28/2014.

here it is if you want to read it.

http://www.kelsotech.com/sites/default/files/2013-Q4%20Kelso%20Audited%20Financial%20Statements%20Dec%2031.pdf

And it is a pretty good report as the company is solidly in the BLACK and this report is probably the driving force for the recent run.

I feel much better now....but I will still leave that stop-loss limit order in place and I may rethink selling if it shoots up again.....if it dips below and triggers the sale then I will re-buy at the bottom of a dip....I don't really do this in real life....it would be an experiment if I did.

Happiness is riding a rocket....just have to be careful to bail before the final explosion if it comes.

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  #97 (permalink)
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a discussion about Gold prices

If you have looked at my spreadsheet updates...you will see that over the last couple of weeks I lost a fair profit in my gold stocks. BTO.TO and SSL.TO

Why did I not sell them and take my losses...well first of all, I was not losing money overall as KLS.V and NDN.TO stepped up to the plate and performed well.... so I was still in the black. Also I could not believe that the price of gold was going to falter forever given the troubles in the Ukraine...So I held on and crossed my fingers.

Gold related stocks DEPEND on the spot price of gold. There is a very close relationship to the movement of the stock and the spot price of the metal....you will note that I don't like to invest in "exploration stocks" for any metal. These are dream painters, nothing more. They will tout "x" million oz of gold (or whatever metal) and say the property is worth "y" billions of dollars. The fact is that a newly found property...IF IT IS FOUND TO HAVE A COMMERCIAL RESERVE of GOLD....will take at least 5-10 years to become a producing mine...you are investing in dreams until the mine is producing and anything can happen in 10 years.

You can see how the negative resistance/support lines changed slope to positive. and currently the price has broken through the last resistance line.

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This is a daily chart with 1) showing the current support line; 2) is the current resistance 3) (dotted) shows a previous diagonal support that was broken 4) now identifies the current diagonal support. 5) is a secondary resistance line if the price of gold were to rise above 2)

this next chart is an hourly chart and shows how the resistance/support lines changed from bearish to mildly bullish

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You can see how the negative resistance/support lines changed slope to positive. and currently the price has broken through the last resistance line. I could probably guess at a new support line but it is difficult to guess at the next diagonal resistance...it is not well defined but looks promising.

So...let us look at the spot price of gold

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this is an interesting chart. It is forming what I call a "MACD/BBWidth" squeeze. You have to be careful here when after a fall the stock price (or commodity) goes sideways for a couple of days. It could be a bottom or it could be just a rest with further decline to come.... if the MACD makes a complete reversal of direction to the positive AND the BBwidth turns negative slope (along with a rise in Slow Sto) then you will see the pinch or squeeze....It looks promising now but not a surety at this point.

Typically when the price reaches a bottom the price then wanders back to the 20daySMA (dotted green line)....IF this is just a rest the BBWidth will not turn negative and the MACD will continue negative.

Also note the blue 50day SMA...that could act as a resistance in the near future.

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the above chart is showing mixed signals.

1. the ADX DI +/- avoided a bearish cross...it is not a definitive avoidance...it could still happen in the near future but it is at least hopeful.

2. The RSI has changed its slope to positive in the last few days (hopeful again but not definite yet.)

3. the CFM on the main chart is still very bearish

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this Ichomoku chart is not encouraging.

First the On Bal and CCI that I placed at the bottom are still quite bearish. In the Ichi chart itself you see the price buried in the green cloud...it is like molasses in there...the upper part of that cloud is a resistance and bottom is a support. the current price is $1298 when I last looked so it looks like we will challenge that cloud border but I look at the thin blue/red lines above and they are very bearish and show no signs of a reversal of direction.

Conclusion

I like working my way through these charts on any stock decision...I can come to a consensus which is usually pretty good.

I don't think we have plumbed the bottom yet. We may have the price rise to the 20day SMA (3rd chart) over time but once we do the price will wander above/below this line until the Bollinger bands get really tight... OR ...this could be just a rest before another plummet in price.

At this point I lean to the first scenario...wandering to the 20daySMA/narrowing BBs before a true direction is set.

As a result...I will hang onto my golds.

PS:

KLS marches on....It did fall back to the upper BB and now is tracking it nicely...I will lift that Stop-loss again...I am not afraid of a decline now.

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  #98 (permalink)
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State of the Union April 4/2014

Well this has been an excellent week.

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up 5.5% in about 7 weeks...let us see if I can hang onto it

I will have to watch KLS.V like a hawk...if gold bounces back it will be another good week.


Last edited by Underexposed; April 4th, 2014 at 10:49 PM.
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  #99 (permalink)
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KLS...a plan of action

{Sigh} I did say in another post that selling is the weakest part of my game...didn't I?

Well KLS.V took quite a dive this morning...dropping to $4.90 before rising back to $5.09 at this time.

here is one chart

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It could be just profit taking as it has had such a nice rise in the last month...it is still rising as I watch right now and is currently $5.12.

NOTE how the Slow Sto is beginning to decline but it is still above 80...this is only very mildly bearish. The BBwidth HAS started to reverse its slope to negative. If the MACD show a negative slope (currently it is flat) then this is a signal that the run is over.

Does this mean the price will plummet to lose all gains? Perhaps it will but more likely, though the run is over, the price will search out the 20 daySMA...best case scenario will be it will move sideways until the price meets this average, where it will rise/fall around this average until the Bollinger bands get tight again signaling time for a major movement (this is called a consolidation for newbie readers)...this is shown in the chart with the BBwidth falling to about 20...as you can see all major movements in price happen when the bbwidth falls to this level.

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You can see this price recovering...I do see a resistance at $5.15 and it is rising to meet that right now...whether this will be significant remains to be seen.

I am effective 9:15 MST Apr 7 setting a limit-stop-loss at $4.95 - $5.00

Even if I sell this puppy, I will be looking to buy into it again when it finds its bottom (if it falters) as I believe this stock is only just starting to become known and the problem of unsafe rail tankers is not disappearing and they are the one that has the solution.

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Well....3 hours later it plunged below $5.00 so KLS.V is sold....but not forgotten...I will wait til the Bollinger bands on this stock tighten again and consider a re-buy....nice run

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