Nathan Explosion's Trading Desk - S&R w/ Trendlines - futures io
futures io



Nathan Explosion's Trading Desk - S&R w/ Trendlines


Discussion in Trading Journals

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one NathanExplosion with 11 posts (10 thanks)
    2. looks_two Quick Summary with 1 posts (0 thanks)
    3. looks_3 BeachTrader with 1 posts (0 thanks)
    4. looks_4 COTtrader with 1 posts (1 thanks)
    1. trending_up 2,177 views
    2. thumb_up 11 thanks given
    3. group 2 followers
    1. forum 13 posts
    2. attach_file 13 attachments




Welcome to futures io: the largest futures trading community on the planet, with well over 125,000 members
  • Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
  • Quality education from leading professional traders
  • We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
  • We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

 
Search this Thread
 

Nathan Explosion's Trading Desk - S&R w/ Trendlines

(login for full post details)
  #1 (permalink)
 NathanExplosion 
Columbus
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: Es, forex, stocks
 
Posts: 23 since Oct 2011
Thanks: 7 given, 17 received

I've been a member since 2011 but have never posted anything until today. Like many of you, I've been through it all over the last 2 years. When I first found Big Mike's I was heavy into technical analysis and used a lot of the indicators I found here. I was hoping to automate my trading using NinjaTrader's platform and take myself out of the equation all together. Prior to that, I had blown an account up in the Forex and was about done with trading. After a year fruitless efforts with indicators and algorithms, I came to the conclusion that either my programming skills were not good enough of there was just no set of indicators that could help me find a reliable edge that I could automate.

For the past 12 months, I've haven't been actively trading. I bought some stocks and etf's over the year but it was a buy and hold strategy using daily trendlines with support and resistance. I've had some success, and it's this same success I want to work on improving on an intra-day basis. I feel at times that there's an obvious edge I'm staring at yet I have not been able to define it in any coherent mathematical model.

Since signing up, I've enjoyed, found strength, gained new ideas, and can relate to about everyone who has a journal here. In my own journal, I'm hoping I can continue to progress and along with that give back a little to the community that's kept me going.

I'll get more into my trading rules, style, approach and setups in my trade updates. For now, I just want to thank Mike for hosting this forum, for all the other traders posting updates and going to battle everyday, and let's rock 2014 out with some solid gains.

Nate

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 8 users say Thank You to NathanExplosion for this post:

Journal Challenge April 2021 results (now extended!):
Competing for $1800 in prizes from Jigsaw
looks_oneMaking a Living with the Microsby sstheo
(67 thanks from 10 posts)
looks_twoSalao's Journalby Salao
(20 thanks from 5 posts)
looks_3Deetee’s DAX Trading Journal (time based)by Deetee
(15 thanks from 7 posts)
looks_4Learning to Profit - A journey in algorithms and optionsby Syntax
(12 thanks from 6 posts)
looks_5Becoming a day trader (PA, volume profile, footprint etc.)by JirkaF
(0 thanks from 2 posts)
 
Best Threads (Most Thanked)
in the last 7 days on futures io
The Crude Dude Oil Trading System
71 thanks
futures io site changelog and issues/problem reporting
68 thanks
Would You Sell Your System?
55 thanks
FIO Journal Challenge - April 2021 w/Jigsaw Trading
26 thanks
Big Mike in Ecuador
25 thanks
 
(login for full post details)
  #3 (permalink)
 BeachTrader 
San Diego
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: AMP / CQG
Trading: CL, ES, NQ
 
BeachTrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 310 since Nov 2011
Thanks: 153 given, 427 received



NathanExplosion View Post
I've been a member since 2011 but have never posted anything until today. Like many of you, I've been through it all over the last 2 years. When I first found Big Mike's I was heavy into technical analysis and used a lot of the indicators I found here. I was hoping to automate my trading using NinjaTrader's platform and take myself out of the equation all together. Prior to that, I had blown an account up in the Forex and was about done with trading. After a year fruitless efforts with indicators and algorithms, I came to the conclusion that either my programming skills were not good enough of there was just no set of indicators that could help me find a reliable edge that I could automate.

For the past 12 months, I've haven't been actively trading. I bought some stocks and etf's over the year but it was a buy and hold strategy using daily trendlines with support and resistance. I've had some success, and it's this same success I want to work on improving on an intra-day basis. I feel at times that there's an obvious edge I'm staring at yet I have not been able to define it in any coherent mathematical model.

Since signing up, I've enjoyed, found strength, gained new ideas, and can relate to about everyone who has a journal here. In my own journal, I'm hoping I can continue to progress and along with that give back a little to the community that's kept me going.

I'll get more into my trading rules, style, approach and setups in my trade updates. For now, I just want to thank Mike for hosting this forum, for all the other traders posting updates and going to battle everyday, and let's rock 2014 out with some solid gains.

Nate

@NathanExplosion

I do hope you do decide to continue your journal. I am very interested in trading ideas on S&R and trendlines.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #4 (permalink)
 COTtrader 
Michigan, Jackson
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT and TS
Broker: NT Continuum
Trading: ES, CL
 
Posts: 857 since Jul 2009
Thanks: 389 given, 552 received

Checkout Kimball charting -- a trendline monster. His charts will encourage you.

Ken



NathanExplosion View Post
I've been a member since 2011 but have never posted anything until today. Like many of you, I've been through it all over the last 2 years. When I first found Big Mike's I was heavy into technical analysis and used a lot of the indicators I found here. I was hoping to automate my trading using NinjaTrader's platform and take myself out of the equation all together. Prior to that, I had blown an account up in the Forex and was about done with trading. After a year fruitless efforts with indicators and algorithms, I came to the conclusion that either my programming skills were not good enough of there was just no set of indicators that could help me find a reliable edge that I could automate.

For the past 12 months, I've haven't been actively trading. I bought some stocks and etf's over the year but it was a buy and hold strategy using daily trendlines with support and resistance. I've had some success, and it's this same success I want to work on improving on an intra-day basis. I feel at times that there's an obvious edge I'm staring at yet I have not been able to define it in any coherent mathematical model.

Since signing up, I've enjoyed, found strength, gained new ideas, and can relate to about everyone who has a journal here. In my own journal, I'm hoping I can continue to progress and along with that give back a little to the community that's kept me going.

I'll get more into my trading rules, style, approach and setups in my trade updates. For now, I just want to thank Mike for hosting this forum, for all the other traders posting updates and going to battle everyday, and let's rock 2014 out with some solid gains.

Nate


Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to COTtrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #5 (permalink)
 NathanExplosion 
Columbus
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: Es, forex, stocks
 
Posts: 23 since Oct 2011
Thanks: 7 given, 17 received

I finally had some time today to work on my trading in real time. For the last week or so I haven't had time to practice during live trading so I've been doing market replay at 10x which isn't really the same.

A little background on my trading experience and where I'm starting my journal.

I've been trading on and off for the past 2 years and have gone through the entire gambit. I dedicated an entire year to building automated strategies on NinjaTrader and have used about every indicator in the book. During that time, I didn't have any, I mean any good luck. Every strategy I ran in Simulation / backtesting that was successful broke down in live trading. I had indicators on top of indicators with some indicators looking at other indicators. It got out of hand, but the one thing I really walked away with was that all an indicator does is translate price action into some other form. I'm referring to simple indicators, not market breath or aggregate indicators.

After spending a good amount of time troubleshooting my automated strategies in live markets, I got fed up and tried to think outside the box. That led me in the completely opposite direction, I wanted to study price action and learn more about price movement. What causes the price to move the way it does, are there patterns I can look for, etc. I only used 1 indicator, the macd, and that I rarely used it. I studied different minute charts and ended up looking into tick and renko charts. Renko immediately peeked my curiosity because it takes TIME out of the equation and simplifies price action further. I'd been reading some books on high frequency trading and when studying the 5 minute charts and the renko at the same time, I could see where price was moving in the renko but it's invisible in the minute charts. Also, for algorithmic trading, time may or may not be part of the equation, and I generally think it is probably not. There are 'edges' in the price action on the renko charts that are invisible on minute charts but they are visible in a mathematical sense. This is where I've spent the last 6 months of my trading.

So, here's how I play the markets. I try and put myself into a mental model that my trading should be liquid. Liquid adapts to it's surroundings, it follows the path of least resistance. Put liquid in a cup and it molds to the cup. Pour it down a hill and it'll find the path of least resistance. This is what I'm constantly reminding myself when I am actively trading.

When I'm trading I am constantly looking for the leading price edge where price might find support or resistance. In a very short term, this leads to many false edges, but I don't trade them all. I look for edges with some longer term support or resistance and the support and resistance lines must be parallel to one another to trade them. If I am trading a leading edge with no partner, chances are i'm going to lose. Once I have an establish support and resistance, I start looking for the middle ground, which may or may not exist. This is similar to Andrews Pitchfork, but the middle edge is not always exactly in the middle, although it is usually parallel.

I try to trade my initial trade with the trend. (The trend is your friend). In this case, TIME is on your side because every new tick bar with the trend rises the support or lowers the resistance if short. Only after taking some winning positions and seeing price break to extremes will I think about going against the trend, it's with the mentality that I will win if I am quick but TIME is running out when you go against the trend. I don't really want to catch knives, just profit from a quick trade and take my profits when they are at their highest.

That's the basic gist, I don't look at indicators anymore and I do keep a 5 min chart with the macd on it just to look for divergences in price and the indicator. I love seeing a nice divergence in the macd and price, it reminds me of a spring loading up and ready to jump. I myself am a hard core contrarian, and it's cost me a lot of money to really learn what that means. It's hard for me to run with the herd, which is why I am constantly reminding myself to BE LIQUID.

As a rule of thumb, I try and back out to a simple risk / reward ratio before entering a trade. Try being the key word because it's not always easy or opportune, but getting a 3:1 ratio helps out a lot.

Overall, I want to use this journal to trade ideas, share my strategy, get feedback and continue to progress. I would love to one day automate my strategy, maybe with a little help, and train it on lots of targets.

Cheers, let's make some money!

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #6 (permalink)
 NathanExplosion 
Columbus
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: Es, forex, stocks
 
Posts: 23 since Oct 2011
Thanks: 7 given, 17 received

I finally found some time to do some live trading this morning and afternoon. Overall, my day went pretty well and I only found myself in one situation I should not have been.

My strategy is to trade shares of TNA based on trendline support and resistance. Today, I was trading a lot of 1000 shares in sim mode, which I eventually build up to with real money. With real money, my strategy will remain the same but instead of 1000 shares I'll start with a lot of either 200 or 400.

My strategy is simple, trade with the trend and exit 1/2 half way through channel and 1/4 at the resistance. Hold the remaining 1/4 lot until it feels right. I tell myself to be liquid and look for the path of least resistance for price, so to that end I sometimes will exit my remaining 1/4 at a high and even reverse my position and try to 'catch' the top for a short scalp trade. That happened once today and my quick trade paid for two small stop losses.

5 or 6 total trades, equal parts long and short. I felt really great on the first trade and after stopping out on the 2nd I decided to reverse course immediately before finding my new edges. I started adding more shares then I like to and found myself with way too much risk but I was able to take it all off the table in a short amount of time. The resulting wave was a great catch and I reversed course cents from the top. This is not always the case, but using the renko charts makes it easy to spot exits and look for the next edge.

Next trading session, I'm using 200 shares with real money and if things go well I'll scale that up to 400. My plan is not to exceed 1000 shares in play at any moment, and if I do find myself heavy I'll exit excessive risk asap.

Keep the stops tight, place my trades before price makes it's move to my target, and keep looking for the next edge.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	feb_25_results1.jpg
Views:	82
Size:	221.2 KB
ID:	138511   Click image for larger version

Name:	feb_25_results.jpg
Views:	64
Size:	709.2 KB
ID:	138512   Click image for larger version

Name:	feb_25_1st_trade.jpg
Views:	134
Size:	576.5 KB
ID:	138513   Click image for larger version

Name:	feb_25_2nd.jpg
Views:	105
Size:	682.6 KB
ID:	138514   Click image for larger version

Name:	feb_25_3rd.jpg
Views:	69
Size:	673.0 KB
ID:	138515   Click image for larger version

Name:	feb_25_4th.jpg
Views:	67
Size:	687.4 KB
ID:	138516  
Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #7 (permalink)
 NathanExplosion 
Columbus
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: Es, forex, stocks
 
Posts: 23 since Oct 2011
Thanks: 7 given, 17 received


COTtrader View Post
Checkout Kimball charting -- a trendline monster. His charts will encourage you.

Ken

Kimball is the man. I wish I could be more like him, he's looking at charts with decades worth of data on them. I can't manage to get a chart with more then 2 days worth of data on it! One day, but hopefully our strategies find the same success.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #8 (permalink)
 NathanExplosion 
Columbus
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: Es, forex, stocks
 
Posts: 23 since Oct 2011
Thanks: 7 given, 17 received


BeachTrader View Post
@NathanExplosion

I do hope you do decide to continue your journal. I am very interested in trading ideas on S&R and trendlines.

Thanks for the push, hope my posts have something useful in them

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #9 (permalink)
 NathanExplosion 
Columbus
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: Es, forex, stocks
 
Posts: 23 since Oct 2011
Thanks: 7 given, 17 received

I haven't had any free time today to keep an eye on TNA but I took a minute to check out ES_F. I am currently holding a 180 april17 put and a 185 april17 call for a strangle trade. The way this market is ignoring bad news is making me anxious and my thought is I'm not alone. If price breaks south, it might make a big run. On the flip side, if price breaks out north then it might create a decent squeeze and rally the bulls to go wild with greed. No telling if the trade will play out yet, but that's at least my starting point.

I keep an eye on the ES_F as a result of my options spread, and the pattern a little while ago looked ripe for a short. I made my age old mistake of taking the first entry on a resistance line I knew was bad. However, I had my eyes on the next one and my average in wasn't bad. My overall risk / reward ratio was $150 risk vs $300+ in reward, not great but the market was floating sideways with a bearish trend.

So far it's playing out in my favor. Hopefully hits my target.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	feb261.jpg
Views:	98
Size:	262.0 KB
ID:	138603   Click image for larger version

Name:	feb_262.jpg
Views:	86
Size:	522.7 KB
ID:	138604  
Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #10 (permalink)
 NathanExplosion 
Columbus
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: Es, forex, stocks
 
Posts: 23 since Oct 2011
Thanks: 7 given, 17 received


"To think is easy. To act is hard. But the hardest thing in the world is to act in accordance with your thinking."

- Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #11 (permalink)
 NathanExplosion 
Columbus
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: Es, forex, stocks
 
Posts: 23 since Oct 2011
Thanks: 7 given, 17 received

Football season has started and so has my active trading. I've been on hiatus for the summer but just got back into the saddle this week. The first thing I always do when I get back into trading is scour futures.io (formerly BMT) for other traders who are looking to accomplish the same goal. This site is a godsend full of great info, experiences, ideas, and support. If you're reading this, you know what I mean.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #12 (permalink)
 NathanExplosion 
Columbus
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: Es, forex, stocks
 
Posts: 23 since Oct 2011
Thanks: 7 given, 17 received

I've been scanning some of the other journals this week and it's fun to see others doing what I have done (not always good), doing what i'm working on currently and others yet who I have no idea what the hell they're doing because it's so advanced. I've been thinking a lot this summer about the differences between a great trader, a successful trader, and a drop out. Most of us all pay a tuition in the form of either blown up accounts or significant losses in the first few years, it's a right of passage of sorts. There's the usual progression of learning the fundamentals, then diving into technical analysis, price action, self-awareness, psychology and so on. One loss after another leads people to keep changing their strategy, keep changing time frames, indicators, stocks, futures, currencies, etc until after awhile you find yourself back right where you started.

I've done all the above. I've yet to really get into a profitable run of active trading. My biggest success comes from my inactivity where I simply buy and hold on a daily near long term support, set a stop and forget about it. If I was a patient person, or had a vast amount of capital to invest, that would probably be my primary trade. I'm very impatient, a hard core contrarian at heart, and I want to solve some riddles in the market. If making a few trades per month or quarter is easy, why can't making a few trades each day be just as easy?

I read a lot this summer, mostly about the markets. I started reading books about trade setups and analysis. Mastering the Trade (John Carter) was one of my favorites. After a couple though, I needed something else. I ended up with Liar's Poker and never looked back. The Big Short, Quants, Flashboys, Market Wizards, New Market Wizards and a few more. The thing I took away from the stories is that just about anyone can be a successful trader, and even the smartest people can get their accounts blown up. Success comes from perseverance. Some luck, some balls, and the sheer will to execute in the face of uncertainty is all that's required to get started.

More then anything, this got me thinking about my own success and the progression from beginner -> novice -> amateur -> intermediate -> consistent -> profitable -> millionaire with a mansion on the beach and a yacht for transportation. There's unique traits for each category, but starting backwards with the successful traders, which traits do they share?

Starting there, I've come up with a loose starting point for trading rules around which I'll build my strategies.

Fundamentals

Risk / Reward ratio of at least 1:2 on every trade. Aim higher, but
Take on small positions to start and increase with success
Strive for a flawless execution of the strategy

My thinking is this, if the strategy is bad, the fundamentals won't need to change and strategies are a dime a dozen. More to the point, these fundamentals are the things that successful traders are also really good at.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to NathanExplosion for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #13 (permalink)
 NathanExplosion 
Columbus
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: Es, forex, stocks
 
Posts: 23 since Oct 2011
Thanks: 7 given, 17 received

Not a stunner....

Played the overnight EUR/USD last night but didn't get much action. I'm using 4 charts to track price, two minute and two renko.

Charts:
5 min top left
20 tick renko with ticks at .00001 on top right
60 min bottom left
10 tick renko bottom right

I use the 20 tick renko as a variable renko chart meaning I'll adjust it to 40 or 50 sometimes to scale out get more of the landscape. The 60 min is used for longer term trends and 5 min for shorter term confirmation. The 10 tick in the bottom right is my trading chart and it's the most granular.

My entry support was a little off but close enough that it didn't stop out. I was in at 1.2929 with a stop at 1.29265. Luckily I didn't get stopped out but I didn't like the action and exited early for a small gain. This didn't hit my target reward, so I ended up taking on a lot more risk in proportion to my reward.

I messed up afterward. I made a slight adjustment to the support, which was inline with everything else and when price came back down I could have and should have entered again with the same targets. That one would have ended up being a nice winner. I failed in my execution in that account but had I not exited the first trade when I did I would have stopped out and that would have been worse.

Looking forward, 5 lots on forex isn't a lot to work with after commissions. I think i'm going to go with 10 lots next time and scale out of my exit. First target is 1:2 and I'll move my stop accordingly once that's hit. I'll let the rest ride out to resistance if it's against the trend or take a couple lots off if it's with the trend and look for another entry while the rest rides.

Need more setups!

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	trade1.jpg
Views:	79
Size:	1.19 MB
ID:	155844  
Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to NathanExplosion for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #14 (permalink)
 NathanExplosion 
Columbus
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: Es, forex, stocks
 
Posts: 23 since Oct 2011
Thanks: 7 given, 17 received

What a week. I've been bouncing between ES, NQ, EUR/USD & GBP/NZD and haven't made a single dollar. Every gain was met with an equal or worse loss. My worst enemy is and has always been myself, typically in the form of exiting winners too early and not cutting my losses quick enough.

I figured if I'm my worst enemy, just get out of the way. I decided if I enter a trade, pick the stop and pick the target and don't move them. It's either going to stop out or profit. The only exception is to move the stop up in a trend when another trade is taken with the trend. I'm keeping my stop tight to minimize risk and not entering until I see something worth at least 1:2 risk/reward. Simple / Stupid, can't beat that.

I took a stab at day trading some AAPL today using the setup and immediately felt better for some reason. Risk was accepted & manageable, reward was a waiting game but this time if felt there was no urgency to exit and I could continue looking for entries rather then contemplate exiting my winners because of this or that.

Unfortunately, I only traded sim. Figures the one great day is the off day. Good news, managing exits for me has always been the hardest part. But, I guess if I don't 'manage' exits, just make it an assumption it's going to win or lose, it should be the easiest part.

Salud

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-09-19_15-29-40.jpg
Views:	46
Size:	490.3 KB
ID:	157330   Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-09-19_15-27-23.jpg
Views:	37
Size:	541.9 KB
ID:	157331   Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-09-19_15-25-46.jpg
Views:	33
Size:	285.6 KB
ID:	157332   Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-09-19_15-24-43.jpg
Views:	50
Size:	225.3 KB
ID:	157333  
Started this thread Reply With Quote


futures io Trading Community Trading Journals > Nathan Explosion's Trading Desk - S&R w/ Trendlines


Last Updated on September 19, 2014


Upcoming Webinars and Events
 

NinjaTrader Indicator Challenge!

Ongoing
 

Journal Challenge w/$1,800 in prizes!

April
     



Copyright © 2021 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts