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2014 spot FX journal


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2014 spot FX journal

  #1 (permalink)
Buffalo,NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: DeepDiscountTrading/Rithmic
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 41 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 7 given, 14 received

2014 spot FX journal

First off thank you so much for wonderful forum. The truth is i been on and off Forex trading fore about 6 years. I lost,gain, read, watch a lot. I think it is time for me to get serious and make this trading works. I owned a lot of thanks to people that took their time to share their knowledge,experiences and wisdom in trading to the lost people like me in this trading world. Once again Thank you all. (Sorry for my writing skill, i still have a lot struggles with English too).

I created this journal first at forexfactory but i personally feel that i don't learn anything from that website and every time i surf that website made me have a doubt about my trading, my set up or it is just too much distraction for me. I just need to focus on what i have right now and work from here.


I personally just want to write this. I blew up 2 account right of the start after 2 days of playing around with MT4 (no demo period). Then i had mentor, joined a most elegant forum that have really nice people, watched how they prepare their chart everyday. I opened another account this time i lost it slowly. At that time, im pretty good at my drawings and understood the market price structures. But i still didnt make it. I didnt believe all the talk about money management, risk management, consistency, and psychology. At that time all those thing meant nothing to me. I know and told me self im really a smart person (went private university, scholarship,,,,ect) but all that doesnt not really mean nothing in trading. i took time off to focus at my education So i went and finished what i went to college for.

Then went to work, become somebody "bitch" , i was mad at myself and usually drive home with 1 question " Why ?????? my life is turn out this way ? my salary is above average " but i still don't like the idea of work for somebody.

After A year, during my vacation time, when i was watching youtube and accidentally watch the " Mark Douglas: Mind over the Market" which is really great talk show. i started to reading Forex books again.


What i did is complete remove all the trading experiences i have before (now im a noob now). i started from basic with every single expect of Forex market.

I bought a simulator software and work every nights for 3 hrs just one set up. Which is im using it now.

Finally i funded my old account again, doubled it then after 2 months im back to the original deposit.


So i asked myself again " Am i that dumb or just blankly ignorant ?".


I decided to analyze my trade then try to figure out what was wrong, which i found it.


I now have everything included in my trading plan, from single minor details to bigger picture.


CONCLUSION:

I realized: things that will improve my trading is :

Trade less and make more !!!!

Stop looking at different strategy, multiple set ups but trying to maximize the strength of the set up that i had.

Accepted that my trade probability is 50/50 once i entered live.

Accepted that my trade will be a loser from start (Doing this help me to look at the risk before the reward). Also it helped keep my trading emotion checked.

Accepted that trade outcome is randomly distributed in a large sample size (50 trades) .

I had money save up for my family to function over 2 years time. So I'm not forcing to trade for living everyday. i'm in the experiment stage to maximize my edge. After this i stage of testing i plan to trade for living using large account size( planed this experiment stage for 2 years period).

2. i have a trade management system in place that kept me away from micro intervention( so i have a accurate reading of my edge over large trade sample size).

3. I kept all plan, prepare, entry and post trade journal entry that i detailed what i think, and how my emotion vibrates over the course of that trade.

( This is big help after i have a sample size and do analysis).

4. TRADING IS HARD WORK. (It took me a long time to realize this but i finally got it. It took me 4 years of hard working to finish engineering school, and 4 years of working experience to take the final PE exam to become a Professional Engineer. What did, made me think that i can become a pro trader over period of few months. !!!!!!!! Wake up call for me ).

5. LIFE IS ONE THING WORTH LIVING FOR. TRADE TO LIVE, NOT LIVE TO TRADE.

Big thanks to : FT71 for his wonderful material, webinar.


Last edited by nhtngn85; January 28th, 2014 at 07:19 PM.
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  #3 (permalink)
Buffalo,NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: DeepDiscountTrading/Rithmic
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 41 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 7 given, 14 received


Little bit about my edge. i used to trade using Andrew Pitchfork but i could not have a good feeling for it. Through out the year i took the principle of pitchfork " Market price usually reach the median line 80 % of time".
So i use that princple and knowledge that i have about pitchfork and applied to what is called " Multi-Pivot line".

Before i enter any trade i use the multi-pivot line to give me the sense of market direction (frequency of price movement) from the lowest point to highest point
Then i check to see if price is behave nicely around that line. If the line is well tested over the time then use if not then repeat the process.
My strategy: is trading with the trend, wait for price to retrace then enter in the market direction
TF: 4hrs chart only
Set-up: Using candlestick pattern(pin bar is most trustworthy for the set up).











4 Current trades open.
EURUSD
EURNZD
EURGBP
GBPJPY

Attached Thumbnails
2014 spot FX journal-eurgbp_short.pdf   2014 spot FX journal-eurnzd_short.pdf   2014 spot FX journal-eurusd_short.pdf   2014 spot FX journal-gbpjpy_shortprofile.pdf  

Last edited by nhtngn85; January 28th, 2014 at 09:39 PM.
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  #4 (permalink)
Buffalo,NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: DeepDiscountTrading/Rithmic
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 41 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 7 given, 14 received

I this is the case short that i build for NZDJPY, but im not really want to take more risk because i have GBPJPY short already open.

CADJPY im still building the long case but have to wait because i don't see who is winning the battle at that price level yet.

EURAUD is a perfect case of using Action and Reaction physic principle apply to trading. Long profile is in the process.

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The following user says Thank You to nhtngn85 for this post:
 
  #5 (permalink)
Buffalo,NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: DeepDiscountTrading/Rithmic
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 41 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 7 given, 14 received

EURNZD Short .
Stop loss hit.
Profit 43 pips.
R:R 1:1.
Once i entered this trade live, original target 1:5 RR, as price move down and making lower low, i moved the stop at above the swing high few pips. The price action from yesterday to today was not that good. Im happy to be out and wait.



After trade hit stop loss. This is how it played.
I was follow my edge, my set up. After i got out of the trade. The bulls come in massively drive the price up.
My Emotion was o.k. As i did what i had plan.

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Last edited by nhtngn85; January 29th, 2014 at 03:15 PM. Reason: Good Reading:
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  #6 (permalink)
Buffalo,NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: DeepDiscountTrading/Rithmic
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 41 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 7 given, 14 received

Mid trade:
GJ is doing as expected.
EU has been live for 3 days price is going nowhere. Move stop to break even based on price action. If it is not move any where tonite. Close and wait to see what will happen next.
EG is doing ok. Price action show some rejection but not a major one. Want for the swing low get take out then move stop to above last current swing high.

Note: Never trade 3 pairs like minded currency in future.

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  #7 (permalink)
Buffalo,NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: DeepDiscountTrading/Rithmic
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 41 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 7 given, 14 received

CHFJPY. Could be a next coming possible trade. Let see who will win ? and play accordingly.
CADJPY. This chart i was looking for a long opertunity at the pink line. But now the price action showed that there are lot of bears defend that zone. Waiting patiencely to get a piece of it if price action show me a possible entry and target will be the next mountain base.

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Last edited by nhtngn85; January 29th, 2014 at 03:07 PM.
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  #8 (permalink)
Buffalo,NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: DeepDiscountTrading/Rithmic
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 41 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 7 given, 14 received

wow. NZDJPY is a really nice move down. At 2 am in the morning i called this short. i woke up at 8am price was moving way out of my stop lost level which make my R:R is not good anymore.
Emotion: Am i feeling upset ? Yes little bit but there will be more opportunities like this.
Right now, i really give myself a A because i did not chase the price and take the trade with bad reward.
If i keep doing what i am doing now, i will be ok in the long run.

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  #9 (permalink)
Buffalo,NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: DeepDiscountTrading/Rithmic
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 41 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 7 given, 14 received

Close look at price action Daily Chart of EURUSD,EURGBP, GBPJPY .
These bars are absolutely against my short trade. Nobody is buying my believe of shorting these trade.
GBPJPY price action show its ok for short side.

EURUSD, EURGBP closed. Price action showed there are no one buying the short side anymore.

TOTAL 3 TRADES: 3R multiple.

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Last edited by nhtngn85; January 29th, 2014 at 10:21 PM. Reason: Trade #1,2 closed
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  #10 (permalink)
Buffalo,NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: DeepDiscountTrading/Rithmic
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 41 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 7 given, 14 received

This is my understanding of " how to become a winner in trading"


First :
**** Thinking, Assuming or Expecting you know what will happen next creates an unrealistic expectation in a specific outcome.

What is term “trading” means to me ? I believe “Trading” is buy/sale other people perception,believe and conviction what is high, what is low. Uh! OK what's that ? It is If I believe this trade is going higher or lower from my entry, there must be someone (or lot of people) has/have the same conviction/believe the price will going up/down, Which will make them come into market to bid/offer it higher/lower to make me a winner or loser. So my trade is in fact depend on other people conviction/believe. Therefore I do not need to assume, expect my trade will be a winner or loser when I put in a trade.

Therefore If I understood this definition, there is no way for the errors to come into my trading.

===> I just need to control my risk and apply my edge and stick to my plan over large sample size of trades.

Based on that believe, how to make me a winner or a loser.
I have a edge. Let says my edge is price action (This is the good way to read the believe/action of mass crowd behavior) give me a good 50/50 of right/wrong most of the time.
How can I be a winner ?
I asked myself this question and kept repeat asking this question from time to time for a long time.
Finally I got a answer after I read “ Trading in the zone” (I wish I picked up this book sooner).
If I follow my edge to the T, I will have 50/50 winner/loser over let says 50 trades.
If Risk/ Reward 1:1, I will be break even (well have to pay the broker for the spread but that is a small part).
If R/R is 1:2, after 50 trades I will make money.
That's all I have to do just control my risk,stay discipline to follow my edge,plan. the Reward will follow. =>> CONSISTENCY


Last edited by nhtngn85; January 29th, 2014 at 10:33 PM.
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