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2014 spot FX journal


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2014 spot FX journal

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  #1 (permalink)
 nhtngn85 
Buffalo,NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: DeepDiscountTrading/Rithmic
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 41 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 7 given, 14 received

First off thank you so much for wonderful forum. The truth is i been on and off Forex trading fore about 6 years. I lost,gain, read, watch a lot. I think it is time for me to get serious and make this trading works. I owned a lot of thanks to people that took their time to share their knowledge,experiences and wisdom in trading to the lost people like me in this trading world. Once again Thank you all. (Sorry for my writing skill, i still have a lot struggles with English too).

I created this journal first at forexfactory but i personally feel that i don't learn anything from that website and every time i surf that website made me have a doubt about my trading, my set up or it is just too much distraction for me. I just need to focus on what i have right now and work from here.


I personally just want to write this. I blew up 2 account right of the start after 2 days of playing around with MT4 (no demo period). Then i had mentor, joined a most elegant forum that have really nice people, watched how they prepare their chart everyday. I opened another account this time i lost it slowly. At that time, im pretty good at my drawings and understood the market price structures. But i still didnt make it. I didnt believe all the talk about money management, risk management, consistency, and psychology. At that time all those thing meant nothing to me. I know and told me self im really a smart person (went private university, scholarship,,,,ect) but all that doesnt not really mean nothing in trading. i took time off to focus at my education So i went and finished what i went to college for.

Then went to work, become somebody "bitch" , i was mad at myself and usually drive home with 1 question " Why ?????? my life is turn out this way ? my salary is above average " but i still don't like the idea of work for somebody.

After A year, during my vacation time, when i was watching youtube and accidentally watch the " Mark Douglas: Mind over the Market" which is really great talk show. i started to reading Forex books again.


What i did is complete remove all the trading experiences i have before (now im a noob now). i started from basic with every single expect of Forex market.

I bought a simulator software and work every nights for 3 hrs just one set up. Which is im using it now.

Finally i funded my old account again, doubled it then after 2 months im back to the original deposit.


So i asked myself again " Am i that dumb or just blankly ignorant ?".


I decided to analyze my trade then try to figure out what was wrong, which i found it.


I now have everything included in my trading plan, from single minor details to bigger picture.


CONCLUSION:

I realized: things that will improve my trading is :

Trade less and make more !!!!

Stop looking at different strategy, multiple set ups but trying to maximize the strength of the set up that i had.

Accepted that my trade probability is 50/50 once i entered live.

Accepted that my trade will be a loser from start (Doing this help me to look at the risk before the reward). Also it helped keep my trading emotion checked.

Accepted that trade outcome is randomly distributed in a large sample size (50 trades) .

I had money save up for my family to function over 2 years time. So I'm not forcing to trade for living everyday. i'm in the experiment stage to maximize my edge. After this i stage of testing i plan to trade for living using large account size( planed this experiment stage for 2 years period).

2. i have a trade management system in place that kept me away from micro intervention( so i have a accurate reading of my edge over large trade sample size).

3. I kept all plan, prepare, entry and post trade journal entry that i detailed what i think, and how my emotion vibrates over the course of that trade.

( This is big help after i have a sample size and do analysis).

4. TRADING IS HARD WORK. (It took me a long time to realize this but i finally got it. It took me 4 years of hard working to finish engineering school, and 4 years of working experience to take the final PE exam to become a Professional Engineer. What did, made me think that i can become a pro trader over period of few months. !!!!!!!! Wake up call for me ).

5. LIFE IS ONE THING WORTH LIVING FOR. TRADE TO LIVE, NOT LIVE TO TRADE.

Big thanks to : FT71 for his wonderful material, webinar.

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  #3 (permalink)
 nhtngn85 
Buffalo,NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: DeepDiscountTrading/Rithmic
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 41 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 7 given, 14 received


Little bit about my edge. i used to trade using Andrew Pitchfork but i could not have a good feeling for it. Through out the year i took the principle of pitchfork " Market price usually reach the median line 80 % of time".
So i use that princple and knowledge that i have about pitchfork and applied to what is called " Multi-Pivot line".

Before i enter any trade i use the multi-pivot line to give me the sense of market direction (frequency of price movement) from the lowest point to highest point
Then i check to see if price is behave nicely around that line. If the line is well tested over the time then use if not then repeat the process.
My strategy: is trading with the trend, wait for price to retrace then enter in the market direction
TF: 4hrs chart only
Set-up: Using candlestick pattern(pin bar is most trustworthy for the set up).











4 Current trades open.
EURUSD
EURNZD
EURGBP
GBPJPY

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  #4 (permalink)
 nhtngn85 
Buffalo,NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: DeepDiscountTrading/Rithmic
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 41 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 7 given, 14 received

I this is the case short that i build for NZDJPY, but im not really want to take more risk because i have GBPJPY short already open.

CADJPY im still building the long case but have to wait because i don't see who is winning the battle at that price level yet.

EURAUD is a perfect case of using Action and Reaction physic principle apply to trading. Long profile is in the process.

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  #5 (permalink)
 nhtngn85 
Buffalo,NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: DeepDiscountTrading/Rithmic
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 41 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 7 given, 14 received

EURNZD Short .
Stop loss hit.
Profit 43 pips.
R:R 1:1.
Once i entered this trade live, original target 1:5 RR, as price move down and making lower low, i moved the stop at above the swing high few pips. The price action from yesterday to today was not that good. Im happy to be out and wait.



After trade hit stop loss. This is how it played.
I was follow my edge, my set up. After i got out of the trade. The bulls come in massively drive the price up.
My Emotion was o.k. As i did what i had plan.

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  #6 (permalink)
 nhtngn85 
Buffalo,NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: DeepDiscountTrading/Rithmic
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 41 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 7 given, 14 received

Mid trade:
GJ is doing as expected.
EU has been live for 3 days price is going nowhere. Move stop to break even based on price action. If it is not move any where tonite. Close and wait to see what will happen next.
EG is doing ok. Price action show some rejection but not a major one. Want for the swing low get take out then move stop to above last current swing high.

Note: Never trade 3 pairs like minded currency in future.

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  #7 (permalink)
 nhtngn85 
Buffalo,NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: DeepDiscountTrading/Rithmic
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 41 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 7 given, 14 received

CHFJPY. Could be a next coming possible trade. Let see who will win ? and play accordingly.
CADJPY. This chart i was looking for a long opertunity at the pink line. But now the price action showed that there are lot of bears defend that zone. Waiting patiencely to get a piece of it if price action show me a possible entry and target will be the next mountain base.

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  #8 (permalink)
 nhtngn85 
Buffalo,NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: DeepDiscountTrading/Rithmic
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 41 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 7 given, 14 received

wow. NZDJPY is a really nice move down. At 2 am in the morning i called this short. i woke up at 8am price was moving way out of my stop lost level which make my R:R is not good anymore.
Emotion: Am i feeling upset ? Yes little bit but there will be more opportunities like this.
Right now, i really give myself a A because i did not chase the price and take the trade with bad reward.
If i keep doing what i am doing now, i will be ok in the long run.

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  #9 (permalink)
 nhtngn85 
Buffalo,NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: DeepDiscountTrading/Rithmic
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 41 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 7 given, 14 received

Close look at price action Daily Chart of EURUSD,EURGBP, GBPJPY .
These bars are absolutely against my short trade. Nobody is buying my believe of shorting these trade.
GBPJPY price action show its ok for short side.

EURUSD, EURGBP closed. Price action showed there are no one buying the short side anymore.

TOTAL 3 TRADES: 3R multiple.

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  #10 (permalink)
 nhtngn85 
Buffalo,NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: DeepDiscountTrading/Rithmic
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 41 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 7 given, 14 received


First :
**** Thinking, Assuming or Expecting you know what will happen next creates an unrealistic expectation in a specific outcome.

What is term “trading” means to me ? I believe “Trading” is buy/sale other people perception,believe and conviction what is high, what is low. Uh! OK what's that ? It is If I believe this trade is going higher or lower from my entry, there must be someone (or lot of people) has/have the same conviction/believe the price will going up/down, Which will make them come into market to bid/offer it higher/lower to make me a winner or loser. So my trade is in fact depend on other people conviction/believe. Therefore I do not need to assume, expect my trade will be a winner or loser when I put in a trade.

Therefore If I understood this definition, there is no way for the errors to come into my trading.

===> I just need to control my risk and apply my edge and stick to my plan over large sample size of trades.

Based on that believe, how to make me a winner or a loser.
I have a edge. Let says my edge is price action (This is the good way to read the believe/action of mass crowd behavior) give me a good 50/50 of right/wrong most of the time.
How can I be a winner ?
I asked myself this question and kept repeat asking this question from time to time for a long time.
Finally I got a answer after I read “ Trading in the zone” (I wish I picked up this book sooner).
If I follow my edge to the T, I will have 50/50 winner/loser over let says 50 trades.
If Risk/ Reward 1:1, I will be break even (well have to pay the broker for the spread but that is a small part).
If R/R is 1:2, after 50 trades I will make money.
That's all I have to do just control my risk,stay discipline to follow my edge,plan. the Reward will follow. =>> CONSISTENCY

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  #11 (permalink)
 nhtngn85 
Buffalo,NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: DeepDiscountTrading/Rithmic
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 41 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 7 given, 14 received

This is my first futures trade using Wyckoff.
watching to see the MM drove it down, the volume increase but the bar was not going down much so i was expecting their intention to drive it down to buy as the volume show the activity. then the next 2 bars confirm that with low volume to the downside.

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  #12 (permalink)
 nhtngn85 
Buffalo,NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: DeepDiscountTrading/Rithmic
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 41 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 7 given, 14 received

Second Long. The pro did not off load all the contracts that they bough in the first trade, The news is bad so the price when down , but as it went down the volume is decrease. All the volume probably from the news and all the stop which people went long break out yesterday high. So there is a weakness in the downtrend. As expect there there another test show strength.

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  #13 (permalink)
 nhtngn85 
Buffalo,NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: DeepDiscountTrading/Rithmic
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 41 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 7 given, 14 received

Second Long added. There will be a a resistance that was make this morning but seem like the SM want higher price so i will wait and see if they will absorb all the sell orders there all not and play accordingly. If they want to take all that sell order they will drive the price up real quick to over pass that level. It could be the reason that they pause the price here to see is a lot of sellers in the back ground. As up right now i don't see a lot there.
Now they took me out leave me with 4 ticks. (BAD MANAGEMENT
I know they dont want the sell there yet. i will try to get back in.
High volume down bar. So they actually try to absorb. I think i move my stop to early.
The question is did they off load ? As i see all the up bars as the recently have higher volume but the spread of the bar is shorten. This is the side of off loading.

Wait and see game again. I like the idea of short right now but to early to play the short side. The long side as im not seeing any good thing right now ( I dont have a clue what are they doing yes) .

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  #14 (permalink)
 nhtngn85 
Buffalo,NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: DeepDiscountTrading/Rithmic
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 41 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 7 given, 14 received

Daily chart. So really good sign of the short as current the yesterday rally and today is just to test the supply zone.
60 mins chart. Its seem that YM is in the distribution zone.
As the price increase the volume decrease and when ever it get near the top volume increase as spread decrease.

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  #15 (permalink)
 nhtngn85 
Buffalo,NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: DeepDiscountTrading/Rithmic
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 41 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 7 given, 14 received

There is sellers in background. This game they are playing right now is really boring.

Now there is something interesting to watch. (Volume just pop and spread is not that good)

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  #16 (permalink)
 nhtngn85 
Buffalo,NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: DeepDiscountTrading/Rithmic
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 41 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 7 given, 14 received

Short entered 16150.
Short added. As price move up the volume dry out. No demand.

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  #17 (permalink)
 nhtngn85 
Buffalo,NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: DeepDiscountTrading/Rithmic
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 41 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 7 given, 14 received

That was a good trade short. Price came up twice test for demand, and there was none of it.
This trade net 43 ticks. I'm totally done for the day.

Total today. 3 trades.
1 lot long net 45 ticks.
2 lots short net 43 ticks.

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  #18 (permalink)
 nhtngn85 
Buffalo,NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: DeepDiscountTrading/Rithmic
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 41 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 7 given, 14 received

Lol, as watching this price action. i see something is forming maybe there will be an opportunity.
Wait and see whats they doing ?. im not greedy, but this game is really interesting.

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  #19 (permalink)
 nhtngn85 
Buffalo,NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: DeepDiscountTrading/Rithmic
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 41 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 7 given, 14 received

Third trade short.
Break even fast and milk this trade out.

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  #20 (permalink)
 nhtngn85 
Buffalo,NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: DeepDiscountTrading/Rithmic
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 41 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 7 given, 14 received

So far not bad. well 39 ticks and price bound up now.

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  #21 (permalink)
 nhtngn85 
Buffalo,NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: DeepDiscountTrading/Rithmic
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 41 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 7 given, 14 received

END WEEK 1:
1 lot trade. Total: 84 ticks
2 lots trade. Total 43 ticks.
Good week so far.

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  #22 (permalink)
 nhtngn85 
Buffalo,NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: DeepDiscountTrading/Rithmic
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 41 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 7 given, 14 received

Week 2 Start. Target $350

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  #23 (permalink)
 nhtngn85 
Buffalo,NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: DeepDiscountTrading/Rithmic
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 41 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 7 given, 14 received

Trade 1:
Time: 0830
Enter: Short 16125
Stop: 16141
Target: 16094
Exit : 16115 (10 ticks won)
Reason: The market pulled back to last swing high. The bar closed low. Volume pop (sellers came)
Tried to jump through last swing high but got reject which created a test of last swing high (Spring).

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  #24 (permalink)
 nhtngn85 
Buffalo,NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: DeepDiscountTrading/Rithmic
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 41 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 7 given, 14 received

Watch and wait. This run up is not bad but compare the volume in daily chart which gave me a question.
Why today volume is not even haft of the bear candle. Is this a false alarm ? This question in daily chart will be answer by the day end. (Big battlefield map )

2 question i asked myself now . Is this run up just building for a good smack down today ? and are sellers going to anything today to defend their zone?

Wait and see then. Nothing to do at the moment.
I will play accordingly to the read of the market.

DO NOT PREDICT ANYTHING.

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  #25 (permalink)
 nhtngn85 
Buffalo,NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: DeepDiscountTrading/Rithmic
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 41 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 7 given, 14 received

Trade 2: Lost 17 ticks 2 Contracts.
Reason enter: The running climax volume with a test of of no demand, then there was a sellers bar with decent volume.
Note: To early next time should wait for 1 more exhaustion run up (shake out) . or the sellers confirm that they are interest in selling.

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  #26 (permalink)
 nhtngn85 
Buffalo,NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: DeepDiscountTrading/Rithmic
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 41 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 7 given, 14 received

Yesterday i had a opinion about the direction. i assumed the market will get smack down hard.
Some Psychology which i noticed when i was trading yesterday.

*I was assuming, expecting the market direction -> This always created a negative balance at the end of the day for me.
* Having opinion about the market direction is not a healthy way to trade.
* I did not read the market correctly (my brain was blocked so i just looking for short ).
* I had the thought about revenge trading because my negative balance and my opinion about the direction.
=> I stopped trading, turned off the computer when all these thing happened. Walk away was a good solution for me.

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  #27 (permalink)
 nhtngn85 
Buffalo,NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: DeepDiscountTrading/Rithmic
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 41 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 7 given, 14 received

Short 2 lot: NQ 3687
Stop: 3692.25
Target 1 : 20 ticks (Done)
Target 2: 3678
Reason; Trade with downtrend from yesterday.
Buying Climax, Upthrust of A

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  #28 (permalink)
 nhtngn85 
Buffalo,NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: DeepDiscountTrading/Rithmic
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 41 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 7 given, 14 received

Trade 2. Short trade NQ
Enter: 3681
Stop: 3686
Target 1: 3670
Target 2: 3661.50
Reason: Downtrend, Test of breakdown.

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  #29 (permalink)
 nhtngn85 
Buffalo,NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: DeepDiscountTrading/Rithmic
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 41 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 7 given, 14 received

Upthrust of B. Volume decrease when its going up (Lack of demand)

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