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jamiecassar's trade journal

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  #1 (permalink)
 jamiecassar 
Rochester MN
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Oanda
Trading: Micro-FX
 
Posts: 82 since Jan 2014
Thanks: 178 given, 28 received

Ok starting a jounal. I had all this stuff to write about earlier, but now as I have *officially* started it my mind is blank. I will come back to this later

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Eric B
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1. trading approach/specific strategies to employ (e.g. fading extremes, go-with breakout moves, scalping developing mini-ranges, etc) and why.
2. current market context, and which above strategies will be matched with it
3. risk management parameters/defining risk prior to entry
4. screenshot demonstrating trades with brief description of each entry and reason for exit at location. Let us know about any specific things that you observed that prompted either entry, exit, or a trade management decision (such as tightening stop, revising target, etc).

Should help you get started. Look forward to reading more.

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  #4 (permalink)
 jamiecassar 
Rochester MN
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Oanda
Trading: Micro-FX
 
Posts: 82 since Jan 2014
Thanks: 178 given, 28 received

Ok, well I don't think I'm very good at writing but this will give me a chance to improve. A few weeks ago I was confident I could trade and my main goal was get a quick ($500) account started and get the ball rolling. My main technique at that time was going on the ES and making a few ticks profit and getting out. The ES is $12.50 per tick so I would just use trendlines and try to guesstimate where the market was headed. Pretty simple stuff. I would draw resistance lines and make $25-$50 every trade. Now I view this behavior as reckless and gambling. I was also attempting to write automated strategies in NinjaTrader which seemed to fail no matter what probably due to my lack of input parameters and getting it to do what I wanted. I would set up ATM to trail stops and never loose more than 2 ticks if the market wasn't going my way. Kind of embarrassing for me to look at my behavior back then, especially considering what I know now. I was ready to borrow money, sell everything I have of worth and start building my account. I almost succeeded too, but the person (my boss, and he would give it to me if I asked) that I was going to borrow the money from wasn't there that day. I came home and read some responses from the post I made saying "I am ready to take the plunge and I have a sure fire way that can't loose" and was directed to some literature and found out many other people had this same attitude and had failed.

I decided to take the advice that was given to me and not rush into anything, and since then I have been studying my butt off learning everything and anything I can about trading.

--------------------------------------------------

----- WARNING LONG RANT AHEAD -----

--------------------------------------------------


I am a musician by nature, and all my time is always spent playing guitar.. playing drums.. playing piano.. harmonica.. cello... learning songs, always every spare moment writing songs and singing about... Well since I have heard of trading, it is like my mind has become obsessed. I crave for more knowledge and every time I get a new piece of information it's like another puzzle piece has been fitted. I haven't played any music for 2 weeks now, it is strange and very out of character for me, but I would rather spend my time finding out more about the market, reading more books, analyzing charts, etc. than playing music. I think it has to do with my obsession with numbers and odds. This comes from when I used to play poker. I was obsessed with poker. I used to live breathe and eat poker. Always thinking about it, always talking about it. The money didn't matter to me, I just wanted to play hands. The satisfaction of a winning hand was all I needed. The more I learnt about trading, the more I found the two are extremely similar.. I wasn't your average poker player, I didn't care about the people, it was all numbers to me. I was constantly accused of card counting even though that is silly. Just because I know the odds of getting an inside straight or a flush on the river and probability is in my favor.. I think most people are dumb. They act like Ace-deuce non-suited is a god hand. I would watch them make huge gambles on cards that had meaning to them, such as birthdays, or anniversaries, what a bunch of fools they are. Poker to me was a waiting game.. folding many many many hands and waiting for a good starting hand just to see a flop and fold if it didn't look good. Most folks go crazy if they get dealt pocket jacks or pocket aces, I hated it. You don't want to call raised, but you have to. You don't want to raise but you feel obligated to weed out anyone without two good cards. I was a very honest poker player I never bluffed. In the end it worked against me (at least in real life) because if I even call a hand everyone folds. If I raised at all they would fold. I would get suffocated and reduced to blind stealing and eventually the ante's more often than not would bleed me dry. That's what sucks about poker, it's really not a card game, it's a people game. I still LOVE online poker and play it whenever I can. I win at LEAST 1 out of 3 tournaments. How the system works is that you will get bad beats and not make money 2 out of 3 times, but when you do win the wins are big and more than sufficient to play more games. The chips are fractal meaning it doesn't matter if your in a $100 game or a 1MILLION dollar game, the ante is a percentage of your stack, and the amount I raise/call is directly proportionate to the pot size. Basically most people eliminate themselves being stupid, thinking they will get their cards because it is their "lucky" numbers. Its a game of endurance and is mostly about making more smart decisions than dumb ones. One of my main gripes is that 55% of people outright lie/bluff, I cannot complain because these are rules they hardcoded into the game. 35% of people really honestly think because they have a pair of aces they have a right to bet these huge amounts, not realizing someone has 2 pair or 3 of a kind. It is hard for someone who believes they have a winning hand to fold. It is emotions taking over and they fool themselves by thinking the other person is lying. I just hate most people they are so deceptive, I just like odds and numbers. Although I will say that knowing the odds helps somewhat, but there IS NO way of telling if you will win a hand or not unless you see the river. Suppose you have a 99% chance, that 1% can AND WILL happen. Sure you have the odds stacked majorly in your favor but I've seen the impossible/improbable happen over and over again. Everytime I play a tournament, I know I could loose that $5,000 dollars, or $500,000. But I also know that I will win sometimes, and those winners will more than make up for the loosing games.

-----------------------------------
----- - - - END RANT - - - -----
-----------------------------------

Sorry for all the words, I know it is not trade related but it is my beginning and I need practice typing.

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  #5 (permalink)
 jamiecassar 
Rochester MN
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Oanda
Trading: Micro-FX
 
Posts: 82 since Jan 2014
Thanks: 178 given, 28 received

Ok, so first off I feel very weird about posting my strategies or thoughts on things online, for fear that someone will steal my ideas, not that there are any new ideas out there, but some things are really obvious to me, and I am thinking not so obvious to others, and I really don't want to give anything away... that being said...

January 16th: I was reading some posts some very helpful users recommended to me, and was following advice that was given to someone else. I switched to a 5 minute chart, and noticed a really low point had recently hit. Infact it was very close to the yearly low. I figured either I enter the market long, and it would hit the resistance and bounce up, or there would be a breakout, in which case I would reverse. I was on a micro-fx. I was going for 25+ pips which was an entirely new concept to me, really didn't think it was possible. So, I went long and made a stop below the yearly low. If it hit that I would then go short. I made another stop about halfway up how far it had dropped. I think this is fibbonaci stuff, but I'm yet that far in my training. I got tired, the market moves soooo slow sometimes... When I woke up I found my stop had hit and I had made $57.50 !! at $1.25 per tick that's gotta be 40+ ticks !!

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  #6 (permalink)
 jamiecassar 
Rochester MN
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Oanda
Trading: Micro-FX
 
Posts: 82 since Jan 2014
Thanks: 178 given, 28 received

Jan 17th.

Ok, so I've been really absorbing myself trying to learn everything I can lately. I've been working on my degree in "pipology" from babypips.com a site I really like (I have yet to graduate kindergarten). I've also been watching a set of DVD's from Online Training Academy, they are ok, filling in lots of knowledge for a beginner like myself. Also reading the forums and searching the internet learning about stuff like TICK and TRIN. Most of this stuff I've been learning kinda seems useless, but still I find it fascinating and hoping using everything together at one point will be benificial somehow. I've wasted alot of time watching crappy youtube vids that I don't learn very much or goes over my head and sometimes I wonder why it takes over an hour to spit out something that could have taken 5 mins.

I have adopted a completely different and new style, going for much longer term now. I have been studying alot of charts. This was random as I was looking up something on investopedia and there was a chart of NASDAQ or something then there was another chart of something else and I started randomly looking at charts of stocks I have no idea what they were. Well, I started to notice patterns and correlations. I ended up just looking at charts for an hour and studying their behaviors. My thoughts are it is similar to poker, in that once you've played 23432146532345 hands you start to notice things.

The market I made big in last night has gotten me studying it I have the chart on in the background while I watch the Online Training Academy DVD's. Just watching it, seeing what it does, waiting for something interesting to happen. I start at the 1 Year view, then I zoom in little by little until I'm at 5min, looking at how it behaves. So anyways I was about falling asleep to this boring teacher lecturing on the DVD, and I noticed this market was really low, and hitting a resistance so I went long again. Just like I had predicted the market rose and rose. I had been piggybacking my profits into buying more shares until I had 10 long. I kept falling asleep and was to tired to stay up and watch the graph slooooowly move anymore so I just canceled all orders, but I had over $100 in profit. This was a micro market so that's probably not that many pips. I wish I knew more about creating stops and trails etc. I don't like to place stops anymore because it costs commission. One time I was placing all these stops and it was like 98 bucks just in commissions... since then I just be there at my pc mentally keeping value and if the market turns on me I will place stops then, rather than have a stop and keep moving it. not sure if it charges me everytime I move it around or not. When I woke up I checked the market and noticed it had soared WAY UP @@ !!! Kinda wishing I stayed up. I feel like I know this one particular market, but only during this particular time frame. Hopefully I will learn other markets as time progresses. Makes me sad that it is the weekend I can't wait till monday or tuesday to see if this market I've been watching acts like I think it will.

So after that I was looking at a different market, one that I am unfamiliar with, but I thought I saw a good opportunity, it was nearing a 10 day low so I went long. Every few ticks it went up I put the profits back into buying more shares until I was +11 long. I put a profit target thinking that it would obviously hit while I was at work. Well, it didn't. It plummeted. I came home to find the pip at 1.3532 ... I think I bought my first share at 1.3562 and at 11 shares that's -$400... Seeing as how it's a sim account and it has 30k in it, I am just going to hold on and hopefully it will turn around. I have decided never again will I even think about positioning myself in a market without studying it first.

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 trendwaves 
Market Wizard
Florida
 
Experience: Advanced
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Trading: ES, NQ, CL
 
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I have to say I was surprised in reading your opening postings here in your new Journal. When you first showed up here at futures.io (formerly BMT) with the story of a baby and a girlfriend and borrowing money from your boss to start trading, well I had a good laugh.

Here are a couple of things you said that caught my attention.


Quoting 
I think it has to do with my obsession with numbers and odds.

Trading is a game of probabilities and controlling risk. Trading is a numbers game. Your genuine understanding of probability and game theory should give you an advantage as you get started. Trading is not predicting the future, it is the ability to recognize a probable outcome. So if your learning something that is trying to predict the future, your on the wrong path. I cannot predict what will happen next, and neither can you. The sooner you can accept this fact and move forward the better off you will be.


Quoting 
Poker to me was a waiting game..

Good trading requires a lot of patience. Good trade opportunities aren't all over the chart, they take time to properly develop. It's very easy to click the mouse on the DOM and get into trouble, it takes skill to sit and wait patiently for a genuine opportunity to present itself.


Quoting 
Its a game of endurance and is mostly about making more smart decisions than dumb ones.

Every day I remind myself of this one simple truth : The market rewards us for being patient and trading smart.

The corollary to this is... In trading you have to know, to really understand, what you can control and what you cannot control.

So best of luck to you in your trading endeavor and your journal.

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  #8 (permalink)
 jamiecassar 
Rochester MN
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Oanda
Trading: Micro-FX
 
Posts: 82 since Jan 2014
Thanks: 178 given, 28 received

Yes, poker is a game of patience. I used to get antsy after 30-60mins without any "action" and I would end up being bored and calling hands I had no business being in. Another obstacle I had to overcome is when you fold something crap such as 7/2 offsuit, and then a full house flops, it makes you feel like putting money into the stupidest of hands. The brain has a funny way of *only* remembering the time you won something, even though you may have lost that hand a million times, your mind will block out the loosing times. Psychology is weird I don't pretend to understand it all. I reached a turning point when I started folding pocket aces if the amount was too high. It can be risky, sure it's a good starting hand, but in reality the cards don't mean ANYTHING until you've seen the flop. Most people think it's about gaining chips, but mostly it is about not loosing them. There is all kind of tactics you can use, like leverage if you are the chip leader it is nothing to you to raise every hand and therefore less people get to play their cards.

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  #9 (permalink)
 jamiecassar 
Rochester MN
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Oanda
Trading: Micro-FX
 
Posts: 82 since Jan 2014
Thanks: 178 given, 28 received

I became an elite member today!

My thoughts were mostly about making the statement that I am serious about trading. This is I feel one of the best investments you can make. Secondly I feel there are probably alot of people that come here and get free information that is better than most info you pay for, so I guess I'll ante up for them, Mike deserves it. I guess that's mostly why I did it, this is a really good forum and I'm glad to be here. I hope someday I'll be trading. I've already stopped trading for the goal of attaining money. I do it because I want to beat the market, and I really do enjoy this stuff.

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 trendwaves 
Market Wizard
Florida
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Trading: ES, NQ, CL
 
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Quoting 
Most people think it's about gaining chips, but mostly it is about not loosing them

Brilliant. Just knowing this one fact puts you miles ahead of an average new trader starting out.

In real estate its said : Location , Location , Location

In trading (for me anyways), it is: Control Risk, Control Risk , Control Risk

Think of this. For any trade you enter there are 4 outcomes:

1. Make a lot of money (ticks , points, $)
2. Make a little bit of money
3. Lose a little bit of money
4. Lose a lot of money

As traders we spend a lot of time doing 2 and 3. If you think of a normal probability distribution (bell) curve, 2 and 3 is the middle 70% of our trade outcomes. You will find, 90% of your meaningful profit (or loss) comes from 10% of your trades, think of the Pareto principle.

What we can do, we can control, is not allowing #4 to happen, ever. Because #4 is what ends your trading career, it takes you out of the game. Stop the loss at #3 and don't ever let it get to #4. A small loss is always better than a big loss. I know this sounds stupid, but traders make this mistake every day. There is a reason why the failure rate of new futures traders is 90%, consistently for decades.

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 bobwest 
Site Moderator
Sarasota FL
 
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jamiecassar View Post
Jan 17th.

I don't like to place stops anymore because it costs commission. One time I was placing all these stops and it was like 98 bucks just in commissions... since then I just be there at my pc mentally keeping value and if the market turns on me I will place stops then, rather than have a stop and keep moving it. not sure if it charges me everytime I move it around or not.

...

I put a profit target thinking that it would obviously hit while I was at work. Well, it didn't. It plummeted. I came home to find the pip at 1.3532 ... I think I bought my first share at 1.3562 and at 11 shares that's -$400... Seeing as how it's a sim account and it has 30k in it, I am just going to hold on and hopefully it will turn around. I have decided never again will I even think about positioning myself in a market without studying it first.

Just a couple of comments. Not meaning to lecture you, but the thing about stops is important.

You only are charged a commission for orders (stop orders included) that execute, not for orders that you place or move. It is very, very good advice to always place a stop order below your long entry (or above your short) to limit your possible loss. Where to place them is a subject of a lot of discussion of this forum, but you really need to have them.

(Did you know that, with the leverage of futures, you can end up losing more than 100%? -- If the broker doesn't close out your position first, and yes, they will come after you for it.)

Don't rely on your judgment to know when to get out once you have a loss. Judgment goes wrong quickly when you're losing.

As far as moving a stop, you could argue that it's OK to move it to follow the trade (up when long, for instance -- although many say just leave it alone), but it's suicide to move it down when long to avoid taking a loss. Be happy to take losses due to stops - it means you were wrong and were smart to get out.

This is true even if the market turns around immediately after taking out your stop and goes where you thought it would, which absolutely will happen at times.

You have to survive if you're to succeed, and it's a long-term game.


jamiecassar View Post
I became an elite member today!

This is an excellent move. Congratulations!

If you dip in and out of the active forums and threads and sample the many points of view, which often conflict, you will start to get a good idea of what you want to look at further.

Good luck.

Bob.

When one door closes, another opens.
-- Cervantes, Don Quixote
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 jamiecassar 
Rochester MN
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Oanda
Trading: Micro-FX
 
Posts: 82 since Jan 2014
Thanks: 178 given, 28 received

thank you for your feedback, not only do I not mind being lectured, I would rather that, then make huge mistakes in life !! And yeah, I found out about stop limit and the prices last night. It is the reason my 11+ contract was allowed to go so far south... It was confusing to me because I am using ThinkOrSwim papertrading, and when I make stops it says like fee = 12.99 or whatever the cost, I am completely all ears to any comments no matter how harsh, I'm 'sure I'll look back on this a few weeks from now and call myself a fool loL.

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 jamiecassar 
Rochester MN
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Oanda
Trading: Micro-FX
 
Posts: 82 since Jan 2014
Thanks: 178 given, 28 received

Ok, I've been thinking about it and thinking about it and I am going to make a live account on monday or tuesday. I probably won't use it very much only 2 or 3 trades per week if that. My goal is to attempt to double a $500 account. I know it is probably will not succeed, but I think I need to know what real trading feels like on a real account. I'm only going to trade ONE market, a micro fx. My only question is where?

I contacted support at TDA and the person I was chatting with said I could trade forex with only $500. He couldn't answer any questions about NinjaTrader so I had to call the trade desk on phone. I had 2 people there tell me I could trade FX, and also 2 different people told me I could NOT trade FX without $2500. One of these people said that the day trader rule only applies to margined accounts, and if you are trading cash, you can make as many trades as you like. I will send them an email and ask, I have been learning the ToS platform (so tired of learning a new platform every other day) and I believe it will be fine. My original goal was to use NinjaTrader, but my girlfriend does not like that program, she acts like I'm playing a cheap video game. I've tried explaining to her how powerful it is, but she does not know anything I'm sure she just hears the cheezy sound effects and judges, lol? For some reason she really likes the look of ThinkOrSwim, I guess even though I'm doing the same thing, but worse, because it is harder for me to navigate the platform and takes forever, it "looks" like I'm more productive, or more professional I don't know. I've been just "sitting at the computer" for a few weeks now, and it has been hard for me to get her to understand that I'm absorbing all this information and I'm not just "sitting at the computer" it's that I'M STUDYING/LEARNING.

So anyways, if ToS will let me trade FX micro with only $500, then I will do that, despite the high commissions, otherwise... I will lease NinjaTrader for 3 months and try to find somewhere else.

I dislike researching new brokers, especially the cheaper ones, I can't tell what is spam review or real review, and what is people upset giving bad review because they lost all their money or legit problems with shady bucketshops. I assume if they are compatible with NT, then must be somewhat ok, I just hope they give me graph data and I don't have to pay extra for it. I'm not sure how this all works, it seems I most likely have to make at least "x" amount of trades per month to make the software/charts free, or pay some obscene price per month if I don't.

My second grandiose idea was to go with ToS anyways, and just trade options or stocks even though I don't even really know much about options, it seems very very similar.

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 jamiecassar 
Rochester MN
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Oanda
Trading: Micro-FX
 
Posts: 82 since Jan 2014
Thanks: 178 given, 28 received

Yes I have a daughter, she is my baby she is 4 months old her name is Lyric. Lyric Gold.
Here is her picture, it is also my desktop background.

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 jamiecassar 
Rochester MN
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Oanda
Trading: Micro-FX
 
Posts: 82 since Jan 2014
Thanks: 178 given, 28 received


bobwest View Post

As far as moving a stop, you could argue that it's OK to move it to follow the trade (up when long, for instance -- although many say just leave it alone), but it's suicide to move it down when long to avoid taking a loss. Be happy to take losses due to stops - it means you were wrong and were smart to get out.

No this cannot happen, as my stop would be calculated to the amount of $$$ I can "afford" to lose on a trade. Once I get a few ticks past breaking even and commissions, I have been manually moving the stop up, but now I suppose I will look into trailing stops, even though I don't trust automation.

I'm going to open a $500 account for me to play around in, and if I trade micro FX I think I could loose no more than $10 per trade. Hopefully I'll win the odd trade, and cover commissions, then I could make 50 or so trades! I think 8 ticks is pretty small but it might be enough ?

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 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
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I don't understand why everyone is patronizing you. There is no way in hell, that you are ready to start trading. You have neither the capital, the knowledge, nor the experience, to begin a career in trading. It's just that simple. What you should do first, is gain a better understanding of the markets and trading, practice further on sim, and do whatever is necessary to raise sufficient risk capital ( money you can afford to lose). Then you can begin to think about trading.

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 jamiecassar 
Rochester MN
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Oanda
Trading: Micro-FX
 
Posts: 82 since Jan 2014
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tigertrader View Post
I don't understand why everyone is patronizing you. There is no way in hell, that you are ready to start trading. You have neither the capital, the knowledge, nor the experience, to begin a career in trading. It's just that simple. What you should do first, is gain a better understanding of the markets and trading, practice further on sim, and do whatever is necessary to raise sufficient risk capital ( money you can afford to lose). Then you can begin to think about trading.

I agree with you Tiger! I don't have $100,000 of risk capital. I don't trust the sim, it's why I want a live account, even if I'm only trading the micro fx. Why do I want to trade live at all? Because I believe I have an edge. My edge is that in a certain market, and between a certain time frame, I won't loose (as much) money. I've been studying this market and I know how it behaves (at least for a few hours). I don't know how I can gain experience if I don't ever do anything. And besides, it's only $500. I think that if I can break even in the micro markets considering commission costs would better than a major victory. I know (for reasons unforseen by me) that my first account will most likely get blown. I am prepared for that. I do not think I will come out ahead, I think that commissions will eat up my account faster than I know, but in reality it's only a few hundred dollars, I think that is money well spent to make 50+ live trades! (even if they are tiny ones).

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 jamiecassar 
Rochester MN
 
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Comments like that make me want to study up and learn about stuff, then beat the market even harder!!!!

Someone said something about not being able to predict the market, and I would like to quote it but couldn't find it. I don't think it's possible to predict the market. You can't predict the flop either, but one of the things I have written in my personal hand written journal is:

Know what you're going to do, when the market does what it does.

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 Big Mike 
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jamiecassar View Post
No this cannot happen, as my stop would be calculated to the amount of $$$ I can "afford" to lose on a trade. Once I get a few ticks past breaking even and commissions, I have been manually moving the stop up, but now I suppose I will look into trailing stops, even though I don't trust automation.

Rookie move...

Stops are pre-determined (before entry) based on where you are WRONG about the trade. It has absolutely zero to do with what you can "afford" to lose or any other monetary consideration. The market doesn't care about your monetary consideration. Market just wants to find value, wherever that may lead.

That is not to say that you shouldn't have a maximum stop in mind. You should. Many people use 1% or 2% of their account. But it does NOT mean that is where you place your stop because it's all you can afford. If a proper stop, dictated by price action, goes beyond your maximum stop size (1%, 2%) then guess what - don't place the trade.

As for moving a stop after you get profits, that is a rookie mistake. Anyone that has done any analysis in this area will tell you the same thing. Most likely you would perform better by not moving the stop at all. The trade is either a profit target trade, or a stop loss trade. Once you get more advanced you can look at scaling in and out of your position, although you will find plenty of people that will remind you that all in all out is mathematically superior. Regardless, scaling in or out of a trade works for psychological reasons (although not mathematical ones), and can provide good areas for timing the change of a stop based on a previous entry or exit.

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 jamiecassar 
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Big Mike View Post

it does NOT mean that is where you place your stop because it's all you can afford. If a proper stop, dictated by price action, goes beyond your maximum stop size (1%, 2%) then guess what - don't place the trade.

As for moving a stop after you get profits, that is a rookie mistake. Anyone that has done any analysis in this area will tell you the same thing. Most likely you would perform better by not moving the stop at all. The trade is either a profit target trade, or a stop loss trade. Once you get more advanced you can look at scaling in and out of your position, although you will find plenty of people that will remind you that all in all out is mathematically superior. Regardless, scaling in or out of a trade works for psychological reasons (although not mathematical ones), and can provide good areas for timing the change of a stop based on a previous entry or exit.

Mike

When I said "all I can afford" I guess it was bad linguistics on my part. Apologies for the confusion, I meant to say that 8 ticks would be 1-2% of my total capital. I suppose "all I can afford" means every dime!! I wouldn't ever risk more than 1-2% on any one trade. I would rather only risk 1% but that's not possible doing what I'm trying to do. Right now my plan is to just sit and wait for the right opportunity, and when it comes be ready. I plan to wait for (at least) a 20 day low or high, then buy once the breakout (or not) is confirmed.

Thank you for your advice is really is helpful, I think I will not consider trailing stops, just moving the original one to a break even, and perhaps lowering my profit target to 30-40% and not 50%


edit: ok when I wrote this ^ up there, I didn't realize what was being said to me

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 jamiecassar 
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Wow... Head Ssssplode.. what mike just said about placing the stop loss really hit home to me. Placing a stop based on what you can afford to loose would be like going all-in with pocket kings: you could flop an ace. .. i.e to risky and doesn't make sense. To this now I thought about readjusting my losses from 2% to 5%, but even that is most likely not enough. I will still create an account, just to get it started but not use it at all. Then when I get my tax returns I will put in another 500. Then every few checks I will put in another hundred etc. until I can gauge when the volatility matches my 1-2%.

I can't thank you enough Mike, am truly grateful. Best to get those evil thoughts out before they blossom

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 bobwest 
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jamiecassar View Post
I agree with you Tiger! I don't have $100,000 of risk capital. I don't trust the sim, it's why I want a live account, even if I'm only trading the micro fx. Why do I want to trade live at all? Because I believe I have an edge. My edge is that in a certain market, and between a certain time frame, I won't loose (as much) money. I've been studying this market and I know how it behaves (at least for a few hours). I don't know how I can gain experience if I don't ever do anything. And besides, it's only $500. I think that if I can break even in the micro markets considering commission costs would better than a major victory. I know (for reasons unforseen by me) that my first account will most likely get blown. I am prepared for that. I do not think I will come out ahead, I think that commissions will eat up my account faster than I know, but in reality it's only a few hundred dollars, I think that is money well spent to make 50+ live trades! (even if they are tiny ones).

Hard to know what to say about this.

I doubt that you will manage 50+ live trades before the market eats you. It's not commissions, it's the market that will do it.

Not to discourage you, but to wake you up: you may have seen the statement that 95% of retail traders lose all their money. Perhaps you should think about the odds in that light.

If you believe you have an edge, fine, can you take 50+ consecutive trades in sim and be a net winner with it? Have you done that kind of work?

Even if you have, live trading can scramble your brains very effectively, and make you forget all your strategy. Only if you're really sure of what you're doing, and know about managing your risk, can you hang on to any edge and make it work. And sorry, but if you are "sure" about what you're doing without having a lot of work behind it, you are not really sure, just over-confident.

I hope someone can dissuade you, otherwise you might as well just throw $100 bills out the window.



jamiecassar View Post
Comments like that make me want to study up and learn about stuff, then beat the market even harder!!!!

-- Good idea. Learn more. Then trade.


jamiecassar View Post
I think I will not consider trailing stops, just moving the original one to a break even, and perhaps lowering my profit target to 30-40% and not 50%

You should do some (i.e., many) sim trades, moving your original stop to break even, and see how it works out. (Hint: you probably will lose out on a lot of trades as the market comes back to pick off your stop.) That is one of the points of not moving a stop.

I don't understand those profit targets. You should look to make a profit of x ticks (or pips in FX) on each trade based on some analytical reasoning plus experience. If you expect large percentage profits, well, the market will instruct you.

And I guess that's the end of my shaking a finger at you. I wish you success, and I am sure the market will provide the lessons. I really hope that you forget this jumping into cash thing, but at least keep the amount low. You will lose most or all of it. Really fast. No kidding.

Or, you can spend more time doing that boring old thing called learning more, like everyone is talking about. Sure, you have to jump in sometime, but it's way early yet for you....

When one door closes, another opens.
-- Cervantes, Don Quixote
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 jamiecassar 
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bobwest View Post

I don't understand those profit targets. You should look to make a profit of x ticks (or pips in FX)

Well it's not a certain amount of pips or ticks, its just how far the market will rise/fall to even itself out after a huge drop (or rise) however far that might be.

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 jamiecassar 
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@ bob, tiger, and everyone else trying to dissuade me :

I am following your advice, because I don't know why, I feel I am ready but I will not argue.

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 tigertrader 
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jamiecassar View Post
@ bob, tiger, and everyone else trying to dissuade me :

I am following your advice, because I don't know why, I feel I am ready but I will not argue.

false knowledge can be very detrimental, but acknowledged ignorance can be quite beneficial

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 Big Mike 
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jamiecassar View Post
When I said "all I can afford" I guess it was bad linguistics on my part. Apologies for the confusion, I meant to say that 8 ticks would be 1-2% of my total capital. I suppose "all I can afford" means every dime!! I wouldn't ever risk more than 1-2% on any one trade. I would rather only risk 1% but that's not possible doing what I'm trying to do. Right now my plan is to just sit and wait for the right opportunity, and when it comes be ready. I plan to wait for (at least) a 20 day low or high, then buy once the breakout (or not) is confirmed.

Thank you for your advice is really is helpful, I think I will not consider trailing stops, just moving the original one to a break even, and perhaps lowering my profit target to 30-40% and not 50%


edit: ok when I wrote this ^ up there, I didn't realize what was being said to me

I understand.

But the advice is unchanged. If your maximum stop for any trade is 8 ticks (1-2%), then you don't simply put a trade on with an 8 tick stop. That makes zero sense. What in the market, the chart, the price action tells you the 8 tick stop is where you would be wrong about the trade? Market doesn't care about your 8 ticks, 1-2% account size.

Hope you understand.

BTW, any time someone tells you something that reads as "fact", you should always do your own homework and research before concluding the same. Unfortunately, newer traders aren't properly equipped (lack of experience) to do the research properly so sometimes you have to just trust the more experienced traders in the beginning. But careful with that, as many traders act experienced when they are not --- but even more to the point, even the most experienced traders dispensing the most accurate advice may not help you because you are not them and they are not you. Trading is an intensely personal experience. Just because something works for someone else doesn't mean it will for you.

Nonetheless, here is a good webinar on collecting and researching statistics:


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 Big Mike 
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jamiecassar View Post
Wow... Head Ssssplode.. what mike just said about placing the stop loss really hit home to me. Placing a stop based on what you can afford to loose would be like going all-in with pocket kings: you could flop an ace. .. i.e to risky and doesn't make sense. To this now I thought about readjusting my losses from 2% to 5%, but even that is most likely not enough. I will still create an account, just to get it started but not use it at all. Then when I get my tax returns I will put in another 500. Then every few checks I will put in another hundred etc. until I can gauge when the volatility matches my 1-2%.

I can't thank you enough Mike, am truly grateful. Best to get those evil thoughts out before they blossom

Percentages are all that matter. It is advisable to not risk more than 1-2% per trade. Many risk even less. This is crucially important to beginners because you aren't going to make money in the beginning. Instead your goal should simply be to survive the learning curve, and that means you need to play the long game and be able to place the 100th, 1,000th, or 10,000th trade and have the capital to do so however long from now.

Micro currency futures like M6E can be useful for minimizing dollar loss while letting you set appropriate price action based stops. You would never, never try to trade something like Crude or Gold as a beginner.

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 jamiecassar 
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Yes, I think I might use the 2N stop, where N = Volatility. And then, only if 2N falls within my 1 or 2%

Thanks again for putting up with all my nonsense

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 deltason 
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Hey man, if you're looking for advice mine is go ahead and break a ton of rules, fall down, make mistakes, learn from them, and make new ones until you find what works. Following advice can be tricky, because at some point in your journey you MAY come to a realization or an idea that goes against conventional wisdom that actually works for you. At that moment will you still follow advice, or will you go with your verifiable experience and proven results? I'm not saying anyone here is giving you bad advice. In fact, I'm constantly reading, watching, and learning from the good folks here at futures.io (formerly BMT). All I'm saying is that once you gain a certain amount of knowledge and experience be prepared to roll with it, no matter what anyone else tells you. Hopefully, you'll be able to stay in the game long enough to get to that point, and that's in large part what it appears the other participants in this thread want to see you do.

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 Big Mike 
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deltason View Post
Hey man, if you're looking for advice mine is go ahead and break a ton of rules, fall down, make mistakes, learn from them, and make new ones until you find what works.

BTW, I agree completely. The only real way to learn is to get out in front and start doing things for yourself. This is why I am very against "trading rooms" and such, as they don't teach you to trade or think for yourself but instead to become reliant upon others.

Collect your own statistics, do your own research, prove your own methods. Read forums, articles, blogs and etc for ideas that help you think of new ways to create or explore an edge, but never accept the result of the original author as fact or as something you can duplicate until you've proven it to yourself.

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 bobwest 
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jamiecassar View Post
My original goal was to use NinjaTrader, but my girlfriend does not like that program, she acts like I'm playing a cheap video game. I've tried explaining to her how powerful it is, but she does not know anything I'm sure she just hears the cheezy sound effects and judges, lol?

So here's a small thing: sounds in NT can be turned off.

Go to Tools > Options > General tab. Uncheck the sounds in the list box that you don't want to hear. Click OK.

No cheeziness.

Something's easy, anyhow.

Bob.

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 jamiecassar 
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Yeah, sad that, one of the things I LOVE about NT is the soundeffects.

"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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 Cashish 
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I think this short 7 minute video from Al Brooks does a good job explaining how He suggests using stops, and their importance to not only beginning traders but most traders. Good luck to you, @jamiecassar we all need some from time to time.





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 jamiecassar 
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Video was good, it raised more questions for me though, I like this Al Brooks guy, I wonder more how he was reading the bars as "always long" or "market is always short" etc. I will investigate

"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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 Big Mike 
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jamiecassar View Post
Video was good, it raised more questions for me though, I like this Al Brooks guy, I wonder more how he was reading the bars as "always long" or "market is always short" etc. I will investigate

Multiple futures.io (formerly BMT) webinars with him in the archives

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 Cashish 
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jamiecassar View Post
Video was good, it raised more questions for me though, I like this Al Brooks guy, I wonder more how he was reading the bars as "always long" or "market is always short" etc. I will investigate

@jamiecassar I figured that, but I was hoping you'd investigate the "I don't care size" part instead.

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 jamiecassar 
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Cashish View Post
@jamiecassar I figured that, but I was hoping you'd investigate the "I don't care size" part instead.

LOL! Yeah I had realized the error of my thinking not long after I posted that earlier. The stop should be placed having to do with mathmatized probability and context, having nothing to do with capital, so calculate where the stop should be and either it's in your comfort zone or not, that was a very important lesson for me

"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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 jamiecassar 
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So, on friday morning, I saw a good trade opportunity (all time low was near bottom resistance) so I went long and quickly was pyramiding the profits into more shares. (I think I said piggyback originally, talk about grammatical errors!) I hadn't placed any stops at all because I'm an idiot, and thought it would cost me commission not realizing it doesn't charge you unless the stops hit. Then when I came home from work, I was negative $500 or so... This was really upsetting to me how could I be so stupid?? I know it's only a paper account but still. Mostly I had missed a breakout for a really low low, and wasn't home to sell short. Or if I had been there I could have reversed. Why did I pyramid so many shares, was I that sure of myself? well, all weekend the market was closed (it opened up sunday night I noticed around 9:30pm, weird) and I would just look at that -$500 thinking oh lord...

So, this weekend while the market was closed I absorbed myself into more learning. I found out never to trade anything past friday afternoon, because the market is crazy, and everyone is closing out their weekly shares. Talk about too little too late! Anyways I woke up this morning and I was only down -$40 !! I was so happy!! then it went to a profit of $1.25 and I was jumping up and down. Now it is back to -$40, but I am still brimming with joy.

One of the things people find odd about me is that in poker, lets say I have an Ace-High Flush, and then after the river, this other guy has a FULL HOUSE. Typically the reaction is anger, but I get exited. I mean, it's exiting for me to see a full house, even though I lost that hand I think it's amazing. I don't see how it's any different from skateboarding, when you see someone do a 360 flip, even though you can't do one, it's still amazing, and you are in awe, and it makes you smile. I just like good hands, good plays. Like the time I folded pocket sixes, and the girl only had Ace-High, it was still enjoyable to me! It was a good play. It was also very interesting, how people act under certain conditions. I find it fascinating.

Anyways (I know I ramble alot) even though I'm negative money in this trade right now, I'm glad to see the market DID bounce up, just like I had predicted, and even though I'm -$40 right now it seems like alot, but also it's +11 shares in a micro-fx, so it's probably only a few ticks. Wow those shares add up. Still can't believe I pyramided so many.

"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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 jamiecassar 
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I shouldn't say "I PREDICTED" but what I mean to say was my perception of probability the odds were (I thought) in my favor at the time

"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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 jamiecassar 
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So, this weekend has been an emotional roller coaster for me. I went from trading 147 trades in a few hours, to just 1 or two trades (if that really) a day, and only if the opportunity presents itself. I had to be honest with myself and the realization that I haven't ingested enough information, and the fact that you can be severely limited by the amount of capital at your disposal. This part about looking at yourself in the mirror and being truthful, I found incredibly draining; mentally, emotional, and physically. For about the 3rd time now, I had to scrap my "plan" and form a new one. Sunday night I started to partially recover. I listened to music for the first time in about two weeks. It was amazing. I played guitar and sang random words. I thought about playing drums. I know now the road I am taking could take YEARS or months at the least. This had a calming effect on my psyche. I played the texas hold em game in the arcade, it was relaxing, but I feel it is not an accurate depiction of the game. You can't go all in, and it's really just a heads up with the dealer, and the dealer cheats but is also pretty predictable. It felt good to just relax for a few minutes and not think about price action, or EMA's, or BB's or Stochastics.

I started reading a new book, it's by John J. Murphy - Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets. Turns out I'm a technical trader. I wonder if fundamentalism exists anymore. I'm starting to hate ThinkOrSwim because I can't get a good read on the graphs. Also I find the interface bloated with unnecessary gimickry it does look cool but is it functional? Somehow I have to make this platform work for me, I am having second thoughts about even opening an account with them, but I most likely will, because I have spent so much time learning it. also it works with NinjaTrader, and as much as I don't like the commission prices, the data is free. Seeing as how my "new style" is few trades per week, but going for big ones, i don't think it will be a prob. I know they have a wealth of learning material that I haven't even begun to look at, so. I think it will help solidify me doing this with my girlfriend once the visa card shows up (they offer a free visa bank card that is tied to your account). I guess the gimicks are good for SOMETHING..

I feel I have a long hard road ahead of me, it is like climbing Fuji mountain, or running a triathalon: it takes weeks/months/years of preparation. I am committed, and I know I can do this, it will just take longer than I originally thought. I still have much to learn, I know this.

"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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 jamiecassar 
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Geez, it's almost 11pm and I haven't gotten any studying in today. Watched some of Al Brooks price action video in the webinars section. He is a genius. I love him.

Today my 11+ long FINALLY hit it's profit target (which I had moved waaaay down). I really wanted out of that trade. I made almost $500 profit, I know it is not real money. It is hard because everytime I make a good trade, I think to myself, this could be growing a live account, but with this last trade I know it wouldn't have been possible. Theres no way I could sit on a trade for 3-5 days.

"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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 jamiecassar 
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made a $5 trade this morning!! assuming I'm using a $500 account this is really awesome. I haven't made any bad trades in a while (stops haven't been hit) although came really close this time. I would have made more, but I was trying to move my stop closer up (was going long) and I swear it was 10 ticks away from the average price and got filled!! omg... somehow I lost $3.19 on that one. Most of my errors are difficulty using/understanding why things happen. Makes no sense to me because that one sold right away, but the average price was hovering 1 tick above my stop and it wasn't selling. I'm thinking I have too much technical knowledge, and not enough basic understanding. Reminds me of when I first started playing poker, and didn't know what "suicide kings" or "pocket rockets" or "dead man's hand" were etc.

Anyways my strategy was the Turtle strategy, new 20 day high, go long (most people would go short). It worked! It was also many other factors, I looked at the chart, it seemed like a "bull day" and plenty of bulls were buying driving the price up, also price was above the EMA20, so seemed like a good idea. Once the price had started dipping below the EMA20 and I thought about selling, but also saw a 2 or 3 leg pattern, and that gave me confidence to stick with the trade and not reverse.

"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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 Anagami 
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You may find that Turtle strategy will give you very disappointing results, particularly on short-term timeframe, if you backtest it.

"The mind is its own place, and in itself can make a heaven of hell, a hell of heaven." - Milton
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 bobwest 
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jamiecassar View Post
Anyways my strategy was the Turtle strategy, new 20 day high, go long (most people would go short). It worked! It was also many other factors, I looked at the chart, it seemed like a "bull day" and plenty of bulls were buying driving the price up, also price was above the EMA20, so seemed like a good idea. Once the price had started dipping below the EMA20 and I thought about selling, but also saw a 2 or 3 leg pattern, and that gave me confidence to stick with the trade and not reverse.


Anagami View Post
You may find that Turtle strategy will give you very disappointing results, particularly on short-term timeframe, if you backtest it.

The Turtle thing is a trend-following strategy; it will do well in trending markets, but markets don't only trend. In rangy markets and shorter trends it will have trouble.

So it is always good to try to decide on whether markets are ranging or trending. In this case, the other stuff you were looking at was part of that, at least in deciding to stay with a trending trade, and it looks like it was helpful.

So, congrats on a working trade, and, more importantly, on trying out different things to improve your own assessment of the market. No two people will ever trade alike, at least not successfully. Your own way is something you have to find.

Bob.

When one door closes, another opens.
-- Cervantes, Don Quixote
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 jamiecassar 
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bobwest View Post
The Turtle thing is a trend-following strategy;

Ok yes, but isn't that our one and total goal to trade with the trend? I'm not advocating the turtle strategy (for many reasons I can see why it is not consistent and doesn't work just look at their P/L numbers).

"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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 bobwest 
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Ok yes, but isn't that our one and total goal to trade with the trend?.

Sure, but then the question is what is "the" trend.

There are long ones and short ones. Plus, the market is sometimes trending and sometimes moving just in short spurts that reverse quickly. So you have the difference between trading a trend and trading in a range.

If the day (or week or month or whatever) is simply not trending, you will get chopped to pieces if you only use methods that work for longer trends. The Turtle method, if I remember, says that you buy when price exceeds the range of a certain period of time, or something like that. That's great, if it keeps on going, but not so great otherwise.

Trend trading is when you get on board and hold; range trading is when you look for price to reverse as it reaches what has been the top or bottom of the range. There are both types of price action.

So sure, if you identify a trend and it really is one, that's good. But if the market is ranging in the timeframe you are looking at, you need to identify that also, and either trade it differently or wait for a trend.

If you only trade one way, and if you apply it to all market conditions without distinction, you may find that it doesn't work out that well.

Lots of journals and webinars here and elsewhere grapple with this; I would read more and try out ideas to see what works for you.

Bob.

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-- Cervantes, Don Quixote
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 jamiecassar 
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Cashish View Post
@jamiecassar I figured that, but I was hoping you'd investigate the "I don't care size" part instead.

Ahhh! Al Brooks: "Trade small enough to be in an 'I don't care' mode"

Good advice !!!!

"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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 jamiecassar 
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Today I made $50 dollars in M6E 2 contracts, and $25 in M6B 1 contract. The 2 contracts was purely by accident, should have been 1. I set this up really quickly before leaving for work today. When I came home, these were the totals after I flattened everything. My strategy? I was testing out a new indicator thingy, and it said to go long. I probably would have sat there watching the screen for a while before deciding what to do. Also, I got lucky.

/BEGIN RANT
I happened to be in the right place at the right time. I went long as a test, then I changed a diaper, got my baby girls clothes on for day care and when I came back the market was shooting upward. Then I got dressed and the market was still goin up. It just kept going up and up and up. Makes me wonder what is going on in the world that causes it to skyrocket like that. Now I am testing a new indicator, but I mostly dislike them. I think most indicators just are full of crap. I don't need an indicator to tell me something is overbought or oversold, and I don't care about volume really. I have been very fond of EMA for a few weeks now, but it's mostly just for confirmation. This new one looks promising, it combines 3 different EMA's to spot a trend. The old one I used this morning was a simple MACD crossover, it was pretty amazing, but while I was at work I kept thinking, what if I didn't have this indicator I'd be lost?? So I will try to keep it simple and if I can't write or at least understand the full workings of an indicator I won't use it. If I find one I like I will reverse engineer it to find out what makes it tick. Other than that I will just use the EMA and look for legs and keep following the 5 min charts. I really want al brooks new books. watched another webinar from him last night and it was incredibly good. The concepts have really opened up my mind to a new state of being. I just curse myself for not having my notepad/journal with me. I should have been taking notes. Thank god the slides for his powerpoint presentation were available for download. I used to hate the thought that big institutional computers were trading huge volumes, but now I like the idea because it provides liquidity. I really don't mind the thought of automation at all anymore. I don't think a computer could calculate as much as a human brain can, and it would be way to many variables to program. I learned C++ 15 years ago, I guess now it's C#. I will see about learning it later, to preoccupied with charts right now.

/END RANT

"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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 trendwaves 
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Quoting 
I don't need an indicator to tell me something is overbought or oversold, and I don't care about volume really. I have been very fond of EMA for a few weeks now, but it's mostly just for confirmation. This new one looks promising, it combines 3 different EMA's to spot a trend. The old one I used this morning was a simple MACD crossover, it was pretty amazing,

Lucky for you MACD is a pair of EMA's

What that tells me is your inclination is that of a trend or directional trader, rather than a fader or counter-trend trading style.

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 jamiecassar 
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trendwaves View Post
Lucky for you MACD is a pair of EMA's

What that tells me is your inclination is that of a trend or directional trader, rather than a fader or counter-trend trading style.

I kind of think counter-trend trading is more long-term and odds stacked against you, but I really don't know enough about it to base anything

"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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 jamiecassar 
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seems all the M6E is always doing stuff in the morning before work. I kept checking in on it all night and nothing was really happening, sort of sideways mostly. I took a trade where the circle is, then the market went down. I was trying to do some OCO stuff and sell but somehow I can't control the ToS platform very well. I miss NinjaTrader. I bought 2 more times when I thought there was a turnaround but no... I feel I should have made my stops WAY closer, that way I only get in while it's trending, and get out early. I just remembered it's friday, and the market is really crazy on fridays I shouldn't be trading at all. I should probably take my $15 loss and not wait for it to hit my stop. I need to learn ToS alot more, why did they make it so weird and difficult to do stuff? found a new website, forexpeacearmy or something like that. I can't believe news announcements move the market so much I haven't tested it out yet. Was going to wake up early to watch the USD/CAD when they made some home financing announcement, but I can't get CAD or CHF or JPY to load ever. Not sure it's offered. This is a trading nightmare I don't know what to do, should I reverse, or just sell ?

I also noticed that to control one micro-pip, it costs $300. I don't see how that's good leverage, seeing as how it's only 0.64 cents profit per tick. Why would I risk $300 for 64 cents, or 1.25 etc. Seems like all my answers lead to more questions, and all the percentages are 50/50 or 60/40.. sometimes 70/30 but not often, and nothing is certain.

"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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 trendwaves 
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Quoting 
Seems like all my answers lead to more questions, and all the percentages are 50/50 or 60/40.. sometimes 70/30 but not often, and nothing is certain.

50/50 is actually pretty good (above average) for a trend trader. Go look at PandaWarrior's trading journal when you have some time, his win% is around 40% I believe, and he is one of the most successful and respected traders on futures.io (formerly BMT).

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 jamiecassar 
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Wow, deeper into the rabbit hole I go.. Found out today that markets are only trending 20% of the time, the rest of the time they are ranging... how the heck to you trade a ranged market???? my guess is on a really small scale following the bigger trend but I really have no idea. The word "trend" is funny. You know eskimo's have 100 words for snow, and that is like the word trend to traders. Big trend, small trend, 1min trend, 5 min trend, 55 day trend, 20 year trend. much investigation is needed. I've reassesed my thoughts on indicators, they are probably good, you just have to know what they are used for and how to use them properly. I'm glad it's all automated. Before I signed up here and had a paper account I made my own RSI writing down high's lows, opens, closes.. I was trying to use the formula 2(RSI) = N where N = volatility, but after all that scribbling with pen and paper, it seemed the N was too small, perhaps I was missing a decimal. I have so much work to do it's borderlined overwhelming.

Started reading PandaWarrior's journal I'm finding lots of helpful links and posts on there. Hopefully this will save me from re-inventing the wheel. I found this in there and realize I am at step 2. I have many systems I would like to program to test, but I think the criteria is impossible to input, such as how to you tell the computer to notify you of a "gap" or a super strong bear/bull bar? I need screen time.

-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-

I am reposting something I found on the forum a long time ago. I copied and kept it for later reference.

The 5 Steps to becoming a trader

Step One: Unconscious Incompetence.

This is the first step you take when starting to look into trading. you know that its a good way of making money because you've heard so many things about it and heard of so many millionaires. Unfortunately, just like when you first desire to drive a car you think it will be easy - after all, how hard can it be? Price either moves up or down - what's the big secret to that then - lets get cracking!

Unfortunately, just as when you first take your place in front of a steering wheel you find very quickly that you haven't got the first clue about what you're trying to do. You take lots of trades and lots of risks. When you enter a trade it turns against you so you reverse and it turns again .. and again, and again.


You may have initial success, and thats even worse - cos it tells your brain that this really is simple and you start to risk more money.


You try to turn around your losses by doubling up every time you trade. Sometimes you'll get away with it but more often than not you will come away scathed and bruised You are totally oblivious to your incompetence at trading.

This step can last for a week or two of trading but the market is usually swift and you move onth the next stage.

Step Two - Conscious Incompetence

Step two is where you realise that there is more work involved in trading and that you might actually have to work a few things out. You consciously realise that you are an incompetent trader - you don't have the skills or the insight to turn a regular profit.

You now set about buying systems and e-books galore, read websites based everywhere from USA to the Ukraine. and begin your search for the holy grail. During this time you will be a system nomad - you will flick from method to method day by day and week by week never sticking with one long enough to actually see if it does work. Every time you come upon a new indicator you'll be ecstatic that this is the one that will make all the difference.

You will test out automated systems on Metatrader, you'll play with moving averages, Fibonacci lines, support & resistance, Pivots, Fractals, Divergence, DMI, ADX, and a hundred other things all in the vein hope that your 'magic system' starts today. You'll be a top and bottom picker, trying to find the exact point of reversal with your indicators and you'll find yourself chasing losing trades and even adding to them because you are so sure you are right.

You'll go into the live chat room and see other traders making pips and you want to know why it's not you - you'll ask a million questions, some of which are so dumb that looking back you feel a bit silly. You'll then reach the point where you think all the ones who are calling pips after pips are liars - they cant be making that amount because you've studied and you don't make that, you know as much as they do and they must be lying. But they're in there day after day and their account just grows whilst yours falls.

You will be like a teenager - the traders that make money will freely give you advice but you're stubborn and think that you know best - you take no notice and overtrade your account even though everyone says you are mad to - but you know better. You'll consider following the calls that others make but even then it wont work so you try paying for signals from someone else - they don't work for you either.


You might even approach a 'guru' like Rob Booker or someone on a chat board who promises to make you into a trader(usually for a fee of course). Whether the guru is good or not you wont win because there is no replacement for screen time and you still think you know best.


This step can last ages and ages - in fact in reality talking with other traders as well as personal experience confirms that it can easily last well over a year and more nearer 3 years. This is also the step when you are most likely to give up through sheer frustration.

Around 60% of new traders die out in the first 3 months - they give up and this is good - think about it - if trading was easy we would all be millionaires. another 20% keep going for a year and then in desperation take risks guaranteed to blow their account which of course it does.


What may suprise you is that of the remaining 20% all of them will last around 3 years - and they will think they are safe in the water - but even at 3 years only a further 5-10% will continue and go on to actually make money consistently.


By the way - they are real figures, not just some ive picked out of my head - so when you get to 3 years in the game dont think its plain sailing from there.


Iv had many people argue with me about these timescales - funny enough none of them have been trading for more that 3 years - if you think you know better then ask on a board for someone who's been trading 5 years and ask them how long it takes to become fully 100% proficient. Sure i guess there will be exceptions to the rle - but i havent met any yet.


Eventually you do begin to come out of this phase. You've probably committed more time and money than you ever thought you would, lost 2 or 3 loaded accounts and all but given up maybe 3 or 4 times but now its in your blood

One day - im a split second moment you will enter stage 3.

Step 3 - The Eureka Moment

Towards the end of stage two you begin to realise that it's not the system that is making the difference. You realise that its actually possible to make money with a simple moving average and nothing else IF you can get your head and money management right You start to read books on the psychology of trading and identify with the characters portrayed in those books and finally comes the eureka moment.

The eureka moment causes a new connection to be made in your brain. You suddenly realise that neither you, nor anyone else can accurately predict what the market will do in the next ten seconds, never mind the next 20 mins.


Because of this revelation you stop taking any notice of what anyone thinks - what this news item will do, and what that event will do to the markets. You become an individual with your own method of trading


You start to work just one system that you mould to your own way of trading, you're starting to get happy and you define your risk threshold.

You start to take every trade that your 'edge' shows has a good probability of winning with. When the trade turns bad you don't get angry or even because you know in your head that as you couldn't possibly predict it it isn't your fault - as soon as you realise that the trade is bad you close it . The next trade or the one after it or the one after that will have higher odds of success because you know your system works.


You stop looking at trading results from a trade-to-trade perspective and start to look at weekly figures knowing that one bad trade does not a poor system make.


You have realised in an instant that the trading game is about one thing - consistency of your 'edge' and your discipline to take all the trades no matter what as you know the probabilities stack in your favour.

You learn about proper money management and leverage - risk of account etc etc - and this time it actually soaks in and you think back to those who advised the same thing a year ago with a smile. You weren't ready then, but you are now. The eureka moment came the moment that you truly accepted that you cannot predict the market.

Step 4 - Conscious Competence

You are making trades whenever your system tells you to. You take losses just as easily as you take wins You now let your winners run to their conclusion fully accepting the risk and knowing that your system makes more money than it looses and when you're on a loser you close it swiftly with little pain to your account

You are now at a point where you break even most of the time - day in day out, you will have weeks where you make 100 pips and weeks where you lose 100 pips - generally you are breaking even and not losing money. You are now conscious of the fact that you are making calls that are generally good and you are getting respect from other traders as you chat the day away. You still have to work at it and think about your trades but as this continues you begin to make more money than you lose consistently.

You'll start the day on a 20 pip win, take a 35 pip loss and have no feelings that you've given those pips back because you know that it will come back again. You will now begin to make consistent pips week in and week out 25 pips one week, 50 the next and so on.

This lasts about 6 months

Step Five - Unconscious Competence

Now we’re cooking - just like driving a car, every day you get in your seat and trade - you do everything now on an unconscious level. You are running on autopilot. You start to pick the really big trades and getting 200 pips in a day doesnt make you any more excited that getting 1 pips.


You see the newbies in the forum shouting 'go dollar go' as if they are urging on a horse to win in the grand national and you see yourself - but many years ago now.

This is trading utopia - you have mastered your emotions and you are now a trader with a rapidly growing account.

You're a star in the trading chat room and people listen to what you say. You recognise yourself in their questions from about two years ago. You pass on your advice but you know most of it is futile because they're teenagers - some of them will get to where you are - some will do it fast and others will be slower - literally dozens and dozens will never get past stage two, but a few will.

Trading is no longer exciting - in fact it's probably boring you to bits - like everything in life when you get good at it or do it for your job - it gets boring - you're doing your job and that's that.


Finally you grow out of the chat rooms and find a few choice people who you converse with about the markets without being influenced at all.


All the time you are honing your methods to extract the maximum profit from the market without increasing risk. Your method of trading doesnt change - it just gets better - you now have what women call 'intuition'

You can now say with your head held high "I'm a currency trader" but to be honest you dont even bother telling anyone - it's a job like any other.


I hope youve enjoyed reading this journey into a traders mind and that hopefully youve identified with some points in here.


Remember that only 5% will actually make it - but the reason for that isnt ability, its staying power and the ability to change your perceptions and paradigms as new information comes available.


The losers are those who wanted to 'get rich quick' but approached the market and within 6 months put on a pair of blinkers so they couldnt see the obvious - a kind of "this is the way i see it and thats that" scenario - refusing to assimilate new information that changes that perception.

Im happy to tell you that the reason i started trading was because of the 'get rich quick' mindset. Just that now i see it as 'get rich slow'

If youre thinking about giving up i have one piece of advice for you ....

Ask yourself the question "how many years would you go to college if you knew for a fact that there was a million dollars a year job at the end of it?


Me again...

I am currently studying both fixed fractional and fixed ratio money management. I will make a decision soon about which one to use. I am also reading about the "science" of fear and how our bodies and brains react to stimuli it considers dangerous. So far, I've just begun this little journey but already I see my trading tracking the various levels of fear based reactions. I suspect through this study, I may end up with better ways of dealing with fear and greed.

-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-

"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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 trendwaves 
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Quoting 
Remember that only 5% will actually make it - but the reason for that isn't ability, its staying power and the ability to change your perceptions and paradigms as new information comes available.

That says it all right there.

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 jamiecassar 
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Ok, turns out I am a counter trader. I am also a swing trader, a day trader, a trend trader, and a price action trader.

Here is a trend trade I made just now, I fiddled with limit buy and couldn't get filled so I ended up buying market. It's the triangle, the green line is my target, the yellow line is my trailing stop, and the red line was my initial stop loss. I started using Oanda last night, I am really happy with them sofar. The stops, and PT + trail were purely random put in by the computer from when I was adjusting the settings last night, I will have to figure it out another time. I made a loosing trade last night, lost 25 or so pips, and I had just bought 1, actually it was 0.00001 or something like that, the smallest amount. and the loss didn't even add up to a penny. I also made a winning trade and the gains didn't add up to a penny. I like it very much. there is no risk, and it IS using margin but only 4 cents, or 8 cents. While I was typing this my trailing stop was eventually hit for a loss of 0.0004 cents. I don't know how I feel about the trail stop, did it protect me from bigger loss, or just prevent me from profit?

Anyways I was feeding my baby girl I had my laptop on the bed and walking back I tripped the cord and laptop went crashing to the floor. The display is all messed up it works but barely, and sometimes not at all. I'm using this newer laptop I spilled chili all on the keyboard a while ago (using usb kb), which I removed, tried to clean was unsuccessful but did use compressed air to clean out everything while it was opened, and magically it works now. For how long I don't know.

I was thinking about "investing" some money into a desktop pc, a desk and chair. There is a room downstairs I could make my office, or study, or what ever you call it. There are pros and cons to this idea, I haven't decided what to do yet. I've been using laptops for a while now, but with mobility comes danger. GF really liked the idea. I think I would rather pump $1500 into a new laptop personally I guess I will look at desktops and components, probably build my own PC.

"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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  #56 (permalink)
 trendwaves 
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Quoting 
Ok, turns out I am a counter trader. I am also a swing trader, a day trader, a trend trader, and a price action trader.

Glad we got that cleared up

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 jamiecassar 
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Here is an experimental trade I took this morning before work, I plan on it taking a few days to realize itself. I set no profit target, but only a 55 pip trailing stop (2N where N = volatility) here is a 5min chart, and a 1day chart

"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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 jamiecassar 
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I feel weird posting here but don't think I'm good enough to post in the elite section so

heres me hoping to get a few pips, the triangle is my entry, the yellow line is my stop, and the green line is my profit target

I got approved for an OANDA account today. Haven't funded it at all. I might put $5 in there just to trade with 5 cents profit/loss, not sure how much a wire transfer is at my bank

"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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 jamiecassar 
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my Experimental Trade" was a complete flop. I lost 20%. I learned alot then. Rule 1 of 2 how most traders fail is not exiting when they should. I should have exited. I had a 100 pip stop (should have been unatainable???) but whatever can happen will happen. I have learned my lesson. It was a harsh one. It cost me 20% of my account. Not fun. anyways.. heres a link to stuff I found informational https://www.quantifiedstrategies.com/poker-sex-and-dying-by-juel-anderson/ a book I plan to buy

edit: http link

"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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  #60 (permalink)
 TheShrike 
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jamiecassar View Post
I got approved for an OANDA account today. Haven't funded it at all. I might put $5 in there just to trade with 5 cents profit/loss, not sure how much a wire transfer is at my bank

A bank wire will cost you between 30 and 50 bucks depending on your bank. Bad trade if you're funding the account with 5 bucks to experiment. I suggest sending a certified check if they allow it or doing an ach transfer if they have that. It'll take a little longer, but what's a few days right?

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  #61 (permalink)
 jamiecassar 
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TheShrike View Post
A bank wire will cost you between 30 and 50 bucks depending on your bank. Bad trade if you're funding the account with 5 bucks to experiment. I suggest sending a certified check if they allow it or doing an ach transfer if they have that. It'll take a little longer, but what's a few days right?

Yeah, found that out. My bank I think it costs $20 (in USA, $40 for international). I had to sign some forms and fax them in to the bank with security questions to even setup the ability to wire transfer... it's all done it's just a matter of when and how much I want to fund. I had thought of just putting in 10 cents, to test everything and make sure it is all working but I'm not paying 20$ for it. I'm nowhere near ready to live trade right now anyways, but I'm glad after being turned down twice, someone accepted my application.

"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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 jamiecassar 
Rochester MN
 
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So, haven't posted for a while, been busy trying to learn MetaTrader4 (why is this program so non-intuitive?). found out that autochartist doesn't work when I put in a 25 or so trades that failed horribly. I have been wondering how people's account go bust so quickly, I mean, I've made about 30 or so bad trades (and a few ok ones) and I'm only down $50 on a sim $500. been using the pip caculator at babypips.com and I put my stop amount to be $5.00 and my stop loss to be 50 pips. i hardly use that many pips, my profit targets usually net me around $2 or $3 which I think is decent. I keep forgetting to talk in percents. My profit targets usually net me about 30%. I set limit buys/sells, but they never hit and usually I just buy market after seeing a few strong bull/bear bars, it is frustrating. patterns are never perfect, but near it. I look up something to learn about, and then before I know it, many hours have gone buy. Seems weird that when I draw my own trendlines, and make my own trade they seem to win more than this this autochartist, or perhaps I am using it wrong. Probably that.

"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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 jamiecassar 
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Still trying to learn to mark up these charts. Due to how many losses I've incurred going for huge (20-30 pips) trades, only to have them reverse right before hitting my target and then to stop me out, Tonight I went for smaller ones. my USD/JPY will hopefully net me 10%, and the HKD/JPY is probably around 12%. The AUD/CAD trade is i think 18%

"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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 jamiecassar 
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see it makes me think the practice trades (or any trades) are rigged this one went riiiight up to my PT then went down... gah.. perhaps there is hope it will hit, but sure looks like a double top =(

"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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 jamiecassar 
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Today I had a major breakthrough. I learned to trade ranged market. I made 3 good trades going up and down bouncing off support and resistance. I wasn't using any shares on these well, 10 shares.. the trades weren't even amounting to 1 penny. So... I increased it to 50 shares, and my limit buy was filled, then the market went way down and turned into barbwire. hah ? well I hope it nets me some profit, I won't touch my profit. Oh this is using my live account, I funded it with five dollars, and have been doing horrible, am down .20 cents which is... 4% ? the micro pips do add up though, those 3 winning trades netted me 1 penny.

"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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 jamiecassar 
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Today I came home and placed 10 trades, in different markets after about 30 minutes of analyzing. 8 of the trades were successful, and I made 3 cents (no one trade was worth a penny, but the micro-cents add up). 2 of the trades went bad, I'm in a really bad trade right now. I will probably loose 1 of my hard earned pennies on it. I fell asleep. I had like 20 orders, and I canceled them all, not realizing I canceled my stop for my last trade going, which I had expected to at least go positive for a brief bit so I could exit my position. Sucks, but I think I am starting to get it, and as long as I can keep from money it feels good. Been more worried about loosing money than making money. Next time I trade (sunday night or monday?") I will increase my share size and see how it goes.

"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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 jamiecassar 
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Haven't written for a while. Been depressed. The market has been handing my ass to me !! I make many good small trades, then huge loss. Over and over. I have been trying(?) many new strategies as I read about them, just to understand them, I will setup my chart with various BBs/SMA/EMA'S etc and do a trade, find out the system is crap, and loose 1-2% lol. My account is currently down 20%.

A huge problem of mine is not using stop losses. I am paranoid that when I place one, the market will hit it, like it always does then shoot up way beyond my PT. was using buy/sell orders instead, paranoid of market maker ruining my life.

Spend all day yesterday learning to use MT4 - man that thing is beastly!! Programmed a bunch of indicators, backtested a thousand worthless EA's, then found out it will only trade in MICRO-LOTS !!! lol !!! I am at the Nano-lot level, and no where near ready to play around with micro-lots. Spent all night programming the java-website browser trading app to mimic some layouts I had in MT4. Can't do a lot of stuff, it's pretty bare bones.

--------------------

Found a new system it seems really good/profitable/working. Most importantly, it fits my hours (not in middle of day while i'm at work) and time I can spend setting it up (very little). Also uses No indicators! Tried it last night and the results will be in tonight, but looks very very promising, my account is up 2% from 3 profiting trades, and 1 that broke even.

Created/printed a simple chart for my new system with 25 main currency pairs, and the amount of lots to trade using a 4% SL. Now that I will be using a consistent percentage amount of my account, I can gather better numbers to see how I am doing.

"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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  #68 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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jamiecassar View Post
Haven't written for a while. Been depressed. The market has been handing my ass to me !! I make many good small trades, then huge loss. Over and over. I have been trying(?) many new strategies as I read about them, just to understand them, I will setup my chart with various BBs/SMA/EMA'S etc and do a trade, find out the system is crap, and loose 1-2% lol. My account is currently down 20%.

A huge problem of mine is not using stop losses. I am paranoid that when I place one, the market will hit it, like it always does then shoot up way beyond my PT. was using buy/sell orders instead, paranoid of market maker ruining my life.

Spend all day yesterday learning to use MT4 - man that thing is beastly!! Programmed a bunch of indicators, backtested a thousand worthless EA's, then found out it will only trade in MICRO-LOTS !!! lol !!! I am at the Nano-lot level, and no where near ready to play around with micro-lots. Spent all night programming the java-website browser trading app to mimic some layouts I had in MT4. Can't do a lot of stuff, it's pretty bare bones.

--------------------

Found a new system it seems really good/profitable/working. Most importantly, it fits my hours (not in middle of day while i'm at work) and time I can spend setting it up (very little). Also uses No indicators! Tried it last night and the results will be in tonight, but looks very very promising, my account is up 2% from 3 profiting trades, and 1 that broke even.

Created/printed a simple chart for my new system with 25 main currency pairs, and the amount of lots to trade using a 4% SL. Now that I will be using a consistent percentage amount of my account, I can gather better numbers to see how I am doing.

I am very concerned with your post. Well, I mean to say that I think you are still on the wrong path in a big, bad way.

Your post "found a new system it seems really..." and then "tried it last night and looks very promising" is where I take great pause.

This entire part:


Quoting 
Haven't written for a while. Been depressed. The market has been handing my ass to me !! I make many good small trades, then huge loss. Over and over. I have been trying(?) many new strategies as I read about them, just to understand them, I will setup my chart with various BBs/SMA/EMA'S etc and do a trade, find out the system is crap, and loose 1-2% lol. My account is currently down 20%.

Illustrates an enormous problem. And the problem has nothing to do with a system or methodology. So trying to solve the problem with a new system or methodology will never, ever work.

Until you fully understand the problem, you cannot hope to solve it.

I can only encourage you to go thru this entire thread very carefully:


It should be painfully obvious that you are making a lot of those mistakes. And then hopefully you can come up with ways to measure and find a solution to them -- and it has nothing to do with a "system" or "method" or indicators.

Good job on at least completing a journal. Most people are unable to even do that, so you have that going for you and it is a huge advantage. I'm just trying to help speed up some of the learning curve a bit and tell you that you cannot solve your problem with a new system or method.

Mike

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 tigertrader 
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Big Mike View Post
Illustrates an enormous problem. And the problem has nothing to do with a system or methodology. So trying to solve the problem with a new system or methodology will never, ever work.


Until you fully understand the problem, you cannot hope to solve it.


It should be painfully obvious that you are making a lot of those mistakes. And then hopefully you can come up with ways to measure and find a solution to them -- and it has nothing to do with a "system" or "method" or indicators.

@Big Mike:

you know as well as i that jamie is the archetypal, believes what he wants to believe, sees what he want to see, and hears what he wants to hear. and he is going to continue to avoid advice that contradicts with what he already thinks or believes, until he self-destructs. maybe then, he will step-back and realize that he needs to listen to the advice of people who have been there and actually know what they are talking about...maybe.

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 Big Mike 
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tigertrader View Post
@Big Mike:

you know as well as i that jamie is the archetype, believes what he wants to believe, sees what he want to see, and hears what he wants to hear. and he is going to continue to avoid advice that contradicts with what he already thinks or believes, until he self-destructs. maybe then, he will step-back and realize that he needs to listen to the advice of people who have been there and actually know what they are talking about...maybe.

Yes. Most people are like that, myself included - I had to learn this business for myself. But still, I sleep better at night knowing I've tried to help.

Mike

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 kevinkdog   is a Vendor
 
 
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Jamie -

Please, for the sake of your dwindling capital, and the sake of your baby daughter, please please please STOP TRADING WITH REAL MONEY!


I'll be blunt:
You are the poster child of someone who should not be trading.



Take 6-12 months off, learn all you can, but don't go live until you are better prepared.

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 jamiecassar 
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Big Mike View Post

I can only encourage you to go thru this entire thread very carefully:



Mike

I have been reading this thread on and off I'm about 10 or so pages in. Not sure what you guys are talking about me being on the wrong path, other than the emotions

"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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 jamiecassar 
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kevinkdog View Post
Jamie -

Please, for the sake of your dwindling capital, and the sake of your baby daughter, please please please STOP TRADING WITH REAL MONEY!


I'll be blunt:
You are the poster child of someone who should not be trading.



Take 6-12 months off, learn all you can, but don't go live until you are better prepared.

I have a $5 account, I don't consider it going live, but just practicing I am trading nano-pips

"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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 kevinkdog   is a Vendor
 
 
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jamiecassar View Post
I have a $5 account, I don't consider it going live, but just practicing I am trading nano-pips


Again, I apologize for being blunt...


You are missing the point. You are acting as if you are ready to play the game. You are clearly not ready.

All your practicing is just circumventing the real learning process.

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 Big Mike 
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jamiecassar View Post
I have been reading this thread on and off I'm about 10 or so pages in. Not sure what you guys are talking about me being on the wrong path, other than the emotions

Read the entire thread (90+ pages as of today) and it will be obvious. If it is not obvious there is a bigger problem. I'll give you a hint: the mistakes you are making are repeated over and over and over again in this thread, so that should tell you that you are on the wrong path.

Mike

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  #76 (permalink)
 tturner86 
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STOP. Breath, read, and learn.

Where you are is where I was 3-4 months ago. And it is really hitting me today because I got my tax papers for last year from my broker and saw my loss in ink. $6k+.

Visit how to trade online using the Brooks Trading Course and purchase the course. Watch the videos through and through multiple times.

The course cost $249, if you can't afford it, then you can't afford to trade. I ride motorcycles and I equate Al's course to the Motorcycle Safety Course that some states require. It won't make you a MOTOGP Champion, but it will teach you what it takes to stay upright on two wheels.

Others have noted about the leverage in futures markets. You can and will lose more than is in your account if you do not understand what is going on. I will use the ES to illustrate: @ 1800 x $50 a point, one ES contract is $90k. Every time you buy or sell you are doing a transaction that is equal of a 2008 Maserati Grand Turismo. Trade 10-11 in a day and you have handled a $1M.

No indicator, guru, or system will make your profitable. Price action is the only thing that will give you an edge, after that indicators are only used to give you hindsight info about what just happened not what is about to happen. Price action won't even tell you what will happen next. The best it will do is give you an idea of the current context of the market and an idea of the probabilities of the current trade.

Build your risk capital, and I mean real risk capital. One that you could light on fire on your desk and it will not change your life. I trimmed my hobbies and luxuries over the last 4 months to build my risk capital. If I lose that money it doesn't matter, I still have my day job, I still have my emergency fund for my family. And I still have non-liquid assets that could be sold if my family needed. None of those affect my risk capital and none of them are risk capital.

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 Big Mike 
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Just an FYI since Al Brooks was mentioned, there is a special promotion for Elite Members, you can find here:

https://futures.io/elite_membership/

Note: Big Mike Trading does NOT receive compensation for these referrals, we simply worked out these special deals to help our Elite Members who have chosen to support the site. Even though we believe these are great products and services, you should always do your own research before doing business with a company.

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 Big Mike 
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For the record, I like Al Brooks. But chasing yet another system is just a continuation down the wrong path. Don't do it.

Mike

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  #79 (permalink)
 jamiecassar 
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kevinkdog View Post
Again, I apologize for being blunt...


You are missing the point. You are acting as if you are ready to play the game. You are clearly not ready.

All your practicing is just circumventing the real learning process.


It's fine. I actually appreciate everyone being critical of me. I treat my practice account as if it were real. If you think of it as only $5 then you loose a dollar, you might think, NBD (no big deal), but for me I view it as 20% and was crapping my pants. I don't have the consistency yet, I know this. I do appreciate everyone giving me feedback, please feel free to speak your minds

"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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  #80 (permalink)
 jamiecassar 
Rochester MN
 
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Big Mike View Post
Read the entire thread (90+ pages as of today) and it will be obvious. If it is not obvious there is a bigger problem. I'll give you a hint: the mistakes you are making are repeated over and over and over again in this thread, so that should tell you that you are on the wrong path.

Mike

I will investigate, and look deeper within myself. Thank you for helping me I really do need it =S

"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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  #81 (permalink)
 jamiecassar 
Rochester MN
 
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kevinkdog View Post
Again, I apologize for being blunt...


You are missing the point. You are acting as if you are ready to play the game. You are clearly not ready.

All your practicing is just circumventing the real learning process.

I find experience to be a good teacher for me. I read about this "strategy" called Fast Moving Averages Crossover. It is a very simple one, and I assume every newbie tries it. I read about it, think that I understand it, but it's not until I try it out that it makes sense to me, that I can play around with it and see what it is about on my graphs.

-------------------------------------------------

Let's take a look at this simple system.
Currency pairs: ANY
Time frame chart: 1 hour or 15 minute chart.
Indicators: 10 EMA, 25 EMA, 50 EMA.

Entry rules: When 10 EMA goes through 25 EMA and continues through 50 EMA, BUY/SELL in the direction of 10 EMA once it clearly makes it through 50 EMA. (Just wait for the current price bar to close on the opposite site of 50 EMA. This waiting helps to avoid false signals).

Exit rules: option1: exit when 10 EMA crosses 25 EMA again.
option2: exit when 10 EMA returns and touches 50 EMA (again it is suggested to wait until the current price bar after so called “touch” has been closed on the opposite side of 50 EMA).

Advantages: it is easy to use, and it gives very good results when the market is trending, during big price break-outs and big price moves.

Disadvantages: Fast moving average indicator is a follow-up indicator or it is also called a lagging indicator, which means it does not predict future market directions, but rather reflects current situation on the market. This characteristic makes it vulnerable: firstly, because it can change its signals any time, secondly – because need to watch it all the time; and finally, when market trades sideways (no trend) with very little fluctuation in price it can give many false signals, so it is not suggested to use it during such periods.

-------------------------------------------------

I do this just to see how people are thinking, and also gives me practice setting up charts and scanning markets, making a workspace for myself. The advice I was given when trying anything new is to scientifically test it 8-10 times to see how it performs (which it did very poorly). To me it is all about learning, and I doubt very much any one system works, it probably takes years of cultivation and combining many different signals to increase probability and reduce risk.

I am not sure what the learning process is but I am completely obsessed and driven at this point I feel it is in my blood and I cannot stop asorbing every piece of information I come into contact with, and using/testing that information, then deciding for myself whether or not it is valid and/or useful to me

"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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  #82 (permalink)
 jamiecassar 
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tturner86 View Post
STOP. Breath, read, and learn.

Where you are is where I was 3-4 months ago. And it is really hitting me today because I got my tax papers for last year from my broker and saw my loss in ink. $6k+.

Visit how to trade online using the Brooks Trading Course and purchase the course. Watch the videos through and through multiple times.

The course cost $249, if you can't afford it, then you can't afford to trade. I ride motorcycles and I equate Al's course to the Motorcycle Safety Course that some states require. It won't make you a MOTOGP Champion, but it will teach you what it takes to stay upright on two wheels.

Others have noted about the leverage in futures markets. You can and will lose more than is in your account if you do not understand what is going on. I will use the ES to illustrate: @ 1800 x $50 a point, one ES contract is $90k. Every time you buy or sell you are doing a transaction that is equal of a 2008 Maserati Grand Turismo. Trade 10-11 in a day and you have handled a $1M.

No indicator, guru, or system will make your profitable. Price action is the only thing that will give you an edge, after that indicators are only used to give you hindsight info about what just happened not what is about to happen. Price action won't even tell you what will happen next. The best it will do is give you an idea of the current context of the market and an idea of the probabilities of the current trade.

I hear what you are saying about the taxes, I am actually trying not to make more than $10 (haha like that's possible for me) because then my broker issues me a tax form, and I am not far enough along to even think about dealing with that.

About the leverage, I setup a ton of trades a few days ago and exceeded my leverage, and all my trades were instantly closed, for that I am thankful. I do believe the pip calculator had failed me. But it has happend a few times, I have heard you can wind up owing more than you have because of leverage, it makes me very nervous, and I was really scared of it for a long time until I realized OANDA will terminate all your trades the instant you go one cent beyond available leverage.

I agree with you about indicators, I'm largely against them, but have been using some lately for my data collection purposes. The problem is that they only tell you about the past, and things can change in a split second, then the indicator adjusts itself so it is misleading. You can look back at the previous 100 bars and say, oh here where these lines converge and blah blah, but reality is when in that moment at that specific time at that instant in the present, the indicators were not lined up, it was only several bars later when they did and after that it was obvious.

"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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  #83 (permalink)
 jamiecassar 
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Big Mike View Post
Just an FYI since Al Brooks was mentioned, there is a special promotion for Elite Members, you can find here:

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Note: Big Mike Trading does NOT receive compensation for these referrals, we simply worked out these special deals to help our Elite Members who have chosen to support the site. Even though we believe these are great products and services, you should always do your own research before doing business with a company.

Mike

Mike, I almost purchased the trading course a few weeks back, but I did/do not want the free month of the trading room to go to waste, and wanted to be more educated so I can participate and understand it more when I do.

"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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  #84 (permalink)
 kevinkdog   is a Vendor
 
 
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I tried to help. I failed. I'm out.

I wish you the best of luck.

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  #85 (permalink)
 supermht 
Naperville IL
 
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kevinkdog View Post
I tried to help. I failed. I'm out.

I wish you the best of luck.

he need time, the time his account is wiped out, for couple of times...

then he will understand you

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 jamiecassar 
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Big Mike View Post
For the record, I like Al Brooks. But chasing yet another system is just a continuation down the wrong path. Don't do it.

Mike


I can only assume there is a mismatch of what I perceive to be language, and what specific words mean to other people. It is my impression that anytime a "system" is mentioned, visions of the website scams with charts full of indicators and arrows telling you when to buy/sell come to mind. This is not what I meant at all.

I meant system ,meaning, A Set of Defined Rules (to follow). For instance, "Do not buy or sell on an inside bar, because it could be a breakout in either direction" or "Only go long if there is 3 white bars". These are rules, I don't follow them and I'm not telling anyone else they should, but if you have a set of rules, I think you can minimize risk and maximize probability.

The new system I was talking about (forgive my terminology I don't know what to call it) is basically trading off of a Daily chart. Same old fratals, just on a much larger scale. I am used to trading on the 5min chart using the 1min for entries and the 15min and higher for overall market sentiment. So for me it is completely new, but I have spent all night calculating the average daily range in 25 different markets, and studying candles in every one of these to find a good entry point based on breakout probability (success rate of breakouts is typically 76% continuation if they happen). I think I can reduce risk even further by not entering on doji days, and perhaps comparing that days range to the average. I have heard stochastics, RSI, CCI, and some other indicators might help me in pinpointing good entries as well, but I have not tested it yet. Tonight I am making another chart with correlation in mind, having currency pairs that are correlated in a list together, so I won't trade any 2 from the same list at the same time, or making a list of opposites and trading those, so that if one pair is not behaving as expected (due to news report or w/e reason) the other non-correlated pair might have success.

I apologize for the somewhat scatterbrained paragraphs, I know what I want to say but it is hard to get it out

"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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  #87 (permalink)
 jamiecassar 
Rochester MN
 
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supermht View Post
he need time, the time his account is wiped out, for couple of times...

then he will understand you

I don't see how it is possible to wipe an account out, unless you didn't use stop losses or percents, or perhaps didn't know a trade was active. I can see it getting small, but the smaller it gets, the smaller the percentage of lots you would use which is parallel to your risk % amount, so really it doesn't make sense to me, or at least it would take many many months to dwindle down, and by that time I'd assume the person would have learned at least something

"Loose the money, but DON'T loose the lesson"

"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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  #88 (permalink)
 trendwaves 
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Quoting 
I agree with you about indicators, I'm largely against them, but have been using some lately for my data collection purposes. The problem is that they only tell you about the past, and things can change in a split second, then the indicator adjusts itself so it is misleading.

Everything you are looking at on a price chart is looking into the past, that includes the candles your looking at as well. Your argument applies equally to the candles, trendlines, order flow, volume profile, and anything else you can come up with to put on a price chart.

Every time you place a trade, your placing what amounts to a bet on a future outcome, a coin toss, which you cannot predict. Each new individual trade outcome is unique and random.

The market doesn't care how smart you are, or how hard or long you worked at finding the trade signal/system/method your using. Each moment in the market is unique and the market will do what it decides to do with no regard to you or your wants, needs, desires or feelings.

Be Patient and Trade Smart
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  #89 (permalink)
 jamiecassar 
Rochester MN
 
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kevinkdog View Post
I tried to help. I failed. I'm out.

I wish you the best of luck.

I just don't understand where all the aggression is coming from or why, and sometimes I feel it is unsubstantiated. I do feel there was an outrageous urgency to your statements, and it (among other things other people have said) has inclined me to read the ask any trading question thread, so, don't consider it a complete failure. I know I'm not the smartest peanut in the turd, thank you for your patience.

"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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 Big Mike 
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supermht View Post
he need time, the time his account is wiped out, for couple of times...

then he will understand you

That's true of most good traders I know

Mike

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  #91 (permalink)
 jamiecassar 
Rochester MN
 
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trendwaves View Post
Everything you are looking at on a price chart is looking into the past, that includes the candles your looking at as well. Your argument applies equally to the candles, trendlines, order flow, volume profile, and anything else you can come up with to put on a price chart.

Every time you place a trade, your placing what amounts to a bet on a future outcome, a coin toss, which you cannot predict. Each new individual trade outcome is unique and random.

The market doesn't care how smart you are, or how hard or long you worked at finding the trade signal/system/method your using. Each moment in the market is unique and the market will do what it decides to do with no regard to you or your wants, needs, desires or feelings.

Yes, it is very similar in these aspects to poker hands. You could have the best starting hand (i.e. entry point) in the world and still loose (i.e. stop loss), all it does is increase your probability, and yes, every hand is different. Most of what I have been researching is how other traders think, for example:

"Wilder never meant RSI to be an oversold/overbought indicator.

...But then over the time traders actually made it an oversold/overbought tool. Since many traders nowadays act and react to RSI oversold/overbought signals, I believe there a reason to state that RSI indicator has found its new purpose and interpretation, forced by masses."


I dunno who said this but it applies to many different areas of trading, patterns, indicators, etc. This is also the reason I started looking up simple beginner strategies such as Stochastic line crossover

"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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  #92 (permalink)
 jamiecassar 
Rochester MN
 
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mental note pg 17 ask any trading question

"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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 jamiecassar 
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Ok, just wanted to say thanks to everyone

I WAS WRONG, YOU WERE RIGHT

None of the comments hit me until last night, when it was painfully obvious I was on the wrong track. I am very thankful I did not continue practicing bad trading habits for much longer. Being a musician, I know that it is 10x harder to re-learn something you do incorrectly, then learn it right the first time.

I have done a mindwipe, starting over at zero. Everything I know or thought I knew about trading I have abandoned completely. I packed my bags and threw them away.

Starting over from scratch, I am taking The Art & Science of Trading course offered by Adam H Grimes ( Signup | The Art and Science of Trading). Printed out the 75 page workbook, and am currently marking pivot points, and writing sentences on each bar. If I can find a way to record the Al Brooks daily trading sessions (I am at work during main market hours) I will sign up for that as well.

I feel I am very fortunate to be on the right track at such an early stage, hopefully forgoing many of the pitfalls of others that have come before me. I owe it all to you guys, I really am thankful; This is a great site with a wonderful community and thanks again for all your help.

"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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  #94 (permalink)
 TheShrike 
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Jamie,

In addition to Big Mike's advice, head over to tturner's trading journal here : . I've been following it since he started and it may give you some insight into price action trading and Al Brooks. Enjoy the holiday.

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 trendwaves 
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Quoting 
Being a musician, I know that it is 10x harder to re-learn something you do incorrectly, then learn it right the first time.

Agree 1000%

Practicing the wrong way is not practice, it's a waste of valuable time. Both in the time wasted developing the wrong habits and in the time required to unlearn and relearn the correct technique. Practice with correct technique does add value in learning your new skill and developing good habits. Good trading habits are those that consistently and safely lead you to desirable outcomes. Any habit or belief that does not satisfy that goal needs to be discarded as quickly as possible.

Be Patient and Trade Smart
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  #96 (permalink)
 jamiecassar 
Rochester MN
 
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Yeah haven't written for a while, been real busy. Have been going through Adam Grimes The Art & Science of Trading course. Turns out I've been doing three times the homework (no wonder I'm still not done!). I like it, can't wait to take the Al Brooks course. Started to learn Microsoft Excel to make my trading spreadsheet. Excel is totally amazing. Reason is, I copied Adam's sheet formula per formula, but it didn't translate to Forex very well so had to make my own. Finally got it working, I use it as a Profit Target calculator mostly, but I suppose it's a habit I need to get into logging my trades.

Started using Median Lines, or at least I know how to make the pitchfork, but haven't found many setups with that yet. Also started using Raschke's "holy grail". Actually I started to use it and found it to be somewhat accurate then quit because I thought it was too indicator heavy and was not price action at all. I found that Adam Grime's uses her 3/10 (modified macd) oscillator so I think I might try to incorporate it a little, to help me spot pullbacks (which I am having major trouble with right now). I want to read her book, but I kind of want to stay away and not use indicators and just study "price action" which is becoming harder to define the more I learn.

The beginning of last week I was doing my trade homework and found some of the techniques very successful so I started trading them on extremely tiny amounts, and they were working. The end of last week they weren't working at all, so I suppose it takes more time and practice.

Started trading the Daily charts, I almost prefer it to the 5min, but only time will tell. I tried trading the 15 minute chart, using the 1Hour for "direction" but was failing. My thoughts are to get confirmation on several different time frames before entering a trade, and I've been waiting and watching, but it never happens, and typically the other time frames contradict themselves.

I have become aware of the spread and it has prevented me from making many many trades.

Trading is not easy by any means and more and more it seems like gambling to me, which I hate, i.e. is it a pullback or is this a support/resistance test? is this a breakout? Is this breakout signal going to continue or is it just higher retest?

If nothing else I have learned the Failure Test which does work and if it doesn't you have a breakout which is just as good, and from doing the homework I can chart 1st, 2nd, and 3rd level pivots and make swing lines with no problem (although I have yet to find out what to use them for). Ok enough blogging and whining for me time to get back to studying!

"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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 jamiecassar 
Rochester MN
 
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Long days. It seems like months have passed. Someone mentioned something about using the cross of SMA's to enter the market in another thread somewhere. I had been doing lots of manual backtesting on various indicators to find out how often they fail, like Stochastics. I want to crunch some numbers on this SMA thing, just so that I can be aware what percentage it works, or doesn't. I did lots and lots of reading on how to properly scientifically analyze something, how to manage the data set, and all the work that goes into it. Bottom line is I have to do it myself. This led me to take up programming, so I can create a simple indicator to send me an alert when the conditions are met, then I can start making a data set. So learning MQL now, I'm on the last section of the 1st part (Basics) it is lots of work but I am exited about ints, doubles, functions, variables, etc. Someday I hope to put it all together and do something useful. At least it gives me something to do when the market is flat/ranging like today... it's been so narrow for about 7 hours now, just waiting for it to pop. I used to hate consolidation but now it has me exited, I feel something big is about to happen in the market after being so tightly ranged for so long. Consolidation = building of energy. Setup 2 trades this morning before work and I see they both hit my profit targets when I came home. I make a lot fewer trades now, I need the probability to be really high, but the wait is worth it, i.e. not making as many loosing ones. Trading the 30 minute charts takes way longer than I ever knew.

"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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  #98 (permalink)
 jamiecassar 
Rochester MN
 
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K here's this afternoons trade. Kinda hard to see why I took it, but I had Heinkin Ashki <sp?> candles on when I decided to short aud/cad. Basically this rounded top was a failure test it's a pivot high, pretty close to a resistance level that has been tested twice (or more) before. I also used stochastics (10,3,3) to confirm my entry point. The green line is my 2nd PT, the 1st PT (about halfway inbetween) was hit while I was taking a nap, but the order didn't go through because I must have hit the limit sell instead of limit buy button. My plan was to take 1/2 my profits at the 1st PT and then the rest at second target. Anyways glad that my stop wasn't hit, and I should make 20+ pips.


"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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  #99 (permalink)
 jamiecassar 
Rochester MN
 
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I took a personality test for traders and I ranked as a swing trader. (thank god i'm not a position trader!) So, being aware of this, I redesigned everything I know to take a different approach. I will trade the Daily charts and the 4 hours. Length of trades on the daily chart typically range from 1 week, to 45 days. Length of trades on the 4 hour charts are typically 1 day to 1 week, so I am going with the 4 hour charts for now. This is good for me because I can "set it and forget it" I just have to check in on my trade a few times a day (once in the morning before work, once in the afternoon after work, and then again before bed). My stoploss will be 100 pips, and my profit targets will be 100-400 pips.

After much trial and error up until now I have decided to only trade the EUR/USD currency pair. I used to trade the top 25 pairs, then last week I narrowed it down to only the 7 majors (ones with USD in them). Now after studying the charts I know I can reduce risk and increase profitability a very great amount by only trading the EUR/USD. The other pairs are just too unpredictable for me right now, especially the JPY ones.

I think this new mode of thought will be good for me, because the less time I am trading, the more time can be used for learning, which I have been doing a lot of lately. Read 2 more books, one of them was Linda Raschke's Street Smarts, I thought it was amazing how much of it still holds true today many years later. Then last night I started learning about Wyckoff and wow. This guy was from 1902 and his reasoning still holds up. Head Xplodes

"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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  #100 (permalink)
 trendwaves 
Market Wizard
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Quoting 
I took a personality test for traders and I ranked as a swing trader. (thank god i'm not a position trader!) So, being aware of this, I redesigned everything I know to take a different approach. I will trade the Daily charts and the 4 hours.


Quoting 
After much trial and error up until now I have decided to only trade the EUR/USD currency pair.

Looks like measurable progress.

For swing trading I like the Daily and 30 minute chart combination. In some situations such as extended trend channels, the 60 minute works well in place of the 30 minute. Just something to consider, of course use what works best for you. FX traders seem fixated on the 4 hour chart, the reasoning for that choice has always escaped me.

Be Patient and Trade Smart
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