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jamiecassar's trade journal
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jamiecassar's trade journal

  #81 (permalink)
Elite Member
Rochester MN
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Oanda
Favorite Futures: Micro-FX
 
Posts: 82 since Jan 2014
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kevinkdog View Post
Again, I apologize for being blunt...


You are missing the point. You are acting as if you are ready to play the game. You are clearly not ready.

All your practicing is just circumventing the real learning process.

I find experience to be a good teacher for me. I read about this "strategy" called Fast Moving Averages Crossover. It is a very simple one, and I assume every newbie tries it. I read about it, think that I understand it, but it's not until I try it out that it makes sense to me, that I can play around with it and see what it is about on my graphs.

-------------------------------------------------

Let's take a look at this simple system.
Currency pairs: ANY
Time frame chart: 1 hour or 15 minute chart.
Indicators: 10 EMA, 25 EMA, 50 EMA.

Entry rules: When 10 EMA goes through 25 EMA and continues through 50 EMA, BUY/SELL in the direction of 10 EMA once it clearly makes it through 50 EMA. (Just wait for the current price bar to close on the opposite site of 50 EMA. This waiting helps to avoid false signals).

Exit rules: option1: exit when 10 EMA crosses 25 EMA again.
option2: exit when 10 EMA returns and touches 50 EMA (again it is suggested to wait until the current price bar after so called “touch” has been closed on the opposite side of 50 EMA).

Advantages: it is easy to use, and it gives very good results when the market is trending, during big price break-outs and big price moves.

Disadvantages: Fast moving average indicator is a follow-up indicator or it is also called a lagging indicator, which means it does not predict future market directions, but rather reflects current situation on the market. This characteristic makes it vulnerable: firstly, because it can change its signals any time, secondly – because need to watch it all the time; and finally, when market trades sideways (no trend) with very little fluctuation in price it can give many false signals, so it is not suggested to use it during such periods.

-------------------------------------------------

I do this just to see how people are thinking, and also gives me practice setting up charts and scanning markets, making a workspace for myself. The advice I was given when trying anything new is to scientifically test it 8-10 times to see how it performs (which it did very poorly). To me it is all about learning, and I doubt very much any one system works, it probably takes years of cultivation and combining many different signals to increase probability and reduce risk.

I am not sure what the learning process is but I am completely obsessed and driven at this point I feel it is in my blood and I cannot stop asorbing every piece of information I come into contact with, and using/testing that information, then deciding for myself whether or not it is valid and/or useful to me

"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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  #82 (permalink)
Elite Member
Rochester MN
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Oanda
Favorite Futures: Micro-FX
 
Posts: 82 since Jan 2014
Thanks: 178 given, 21 received


tturner86 View Post
STOP. Breath, read, and learn.

Where you are is where I was 3-4 months ago. And it is really hitting me today because I got my tax papers for last year from my broker and saw my loss in ink. $6k+.

Visit how to trade online using the Brooks Trading Course and purchase the course. Watch the videos through and through multiple times.

The course cost $249, if you can't afford it, then you can't afford to trade. I ride motorcycles and I equate Al's course to the Motorcycle Safety Course that some states require. It won't make you a MOTOGP Champion, but it will teach you what it takes to stay upright on two wheels.

Others have noted about the leverage in futures markets. You can and will lose more than is in your account if you do not understand what is going on. I will use the ES to illustrate: @ 1800 x $50 a point, one ES contract is $90k. Every time you buy or sell you are doing a transaction that is equal of a 2008 Maserati Grand Turismo. Trade 10-11 in a day and you have handled a $1M.

No indicator, guru, or system will make your profitable. Price action is the only thing that will give you an edge, after that indicators are only used to give you hindsight info about what just happened not what is about to happen. Price action won't even tell you what will happen next. The best it will do is give you an idea of the current context of the market and an idea of the probabilities of the current trade.

I hear what you are saying about the taxes, I am actually trying not to make more than $10 (haha like that's possible for me) because then my broker issues me a tax form, and I am not far enough along to even think about dealing with that.

About the leverage, I setup a ton of trades a few days ago and exceeded my leverage, and all my trades were instantly closed, for that I am thankful. I do believe the pip calculator had failed me. But it has happend a few times, I have heard you can wind up owing more than you have because of leverage, it makes me very nervous, and I was really scared of it for a long time until I realized OANDA will terminate all your trades the instant you go one cent beyond available leverage.

I agree with you about indicators, I'm largely against them, but have been using some lately for my data collection purposes. The problem is that they only tell you about the past, and things can change in a split second, then the indicator adjusts itself so it is misleading. You can look back at the previous 100 bars and say, oh here where these lines converge and blah blah, but reality is when in that moment at that specific time at that instant in the present, the indicators were not lined up, it was only several bars later when they did and after that it was obvious.

"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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  #83 (permalink)
Elite Member
Rochester MN
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Oanda
Favorite Futures: Micro-FX
 
Posts: 82 since Jan 2014
Thanks: 178 given, 21 received



Big Mike View Post
Just an FYI since Al Brooks was mentioned, there is a special promotion for Elite Members, you can find here:

https://futures.io/elite_membership/

Note: Big Mike Trading does NOT receive compensation for these referrals, we simply worked out these special deals to help our Elite Members who have chosen to support the site. Even though we believe these are great products and services, you should always do your own research before doing business with a company.

Mike

Mike, I almost purchased the trading course a few weeks back, but I did/do not want the free month of the trading room to go to waste, and wanted to be more educated so I can participate and understand it more when I do.

"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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  #84 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Cleveland Ohio/United States
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation
Broker/Data: various
Favorite Futures: futures
 
Posts: 2,388 since Jul 2012
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Forum Reputation: Legendary

I tried to help. I failed. I'm out.

I wish you the best of luck.

If you have any questions please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
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  #85 (permalink)
Elite Member
Naperville IL
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ninjatrader
Broker/Data: NT broker
Favorite Futures: NQ ES 6E GC CL
 
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kevinkdog View Post
I tried to help. I failed. I'm out.

I wish you the best of luck.

he need time, the time his account is wiped out, for couple of times...

then he will understand you

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  #86 (permalink)
Elite Member
Rochester MN
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Oanda
Favorite Futures: Micro-FX
 
Posts: 82 since Jan 2014
Thanks: 178 given, 21 received


Big Mike View Post
For the record, I like Al Brooks. But chasing yet another system is just a continuation down the wrong path. Don't do it.

Mike


I can only assume there is a mismatch of what I perceive to be language, and what specific words mean to other people. It is my impression that anytime a "system" is mentioned, visions of the website scams with charts full of indicators and arrows telling you when to buy/sell come to mind. This is not what I meant at all.

I meant system ,meaning, A Set of Defined Rules (to follow). For instance, "Do not buy or sell on an inside bar, because it could be a breakout in either direction" or "Only go long if there is 3 white bars". These are rules, I don't follow them and I'm not telling anyone else they should, but if you have a set of rules, I think you can minimize risk and maximize probability.

The new system I was talking about (forgive my terminology I don't know what to call it) is basically trading off of a Daily chart. Same old fratals, just on a much larger scale. I am used to trading on the 5min chart using the 1min for entries and the 15min and higher for overall market sentiment. So for me it is completely new, but I have spent all night calculating the average daily range in 25 different markets, and studying candles in every one of these to find a good entry point based on breakout probability (success rate of breakouts is typically 76% continuation if they happen). I think I can reduce risk even further by not entering on doji days, and perhaps comparing that days range to the average. I have heard stochastics, RSI, CCI, and some other indicators might help me in pinpointing good entries as well, but I have not tested it yet. Tonight I am making another chart with correlation in mind, having currency pairs that are correlated in a list together, so I won't trade any 2 from the same list at the same time, or making a list of opposites and trading those, so that if one pair is not behaving as expected (due to news report or w/e reason) the other non-correlated pair might have success.

I apologize for the somewhat scatterbrained paragraphs, I know what I want to say but it is hard to get it out

"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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  #87 (permalink)
Elite Member
Rochester MN
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Oanda
Favorite Futures: Micro-FX
 
Posts: 82 since Jan 2014
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supermht View Post
he need time, the time his account is wiped out, for couple of times...

then he will understand you

I don't see how it is possible to wipe an account out, unless you didn't use stop losses or percents, or perhaps didn't know a trade was active. I can see it getting small, but the smaller it gets, the smaller the percentage of lots you would use which is parallel to your risk % amount, so really it doesn't make sense to me, or at least it would take many many months to dwindle down, and by that time I'd assume the person would have learned at least something

"Loose the money, but DON'T loose the lesson"

"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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  #88 (permalink)
Elite Member
Florida
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Favorite Futures: YM, ES, NQ, CL, ZB
 
trendwaves's Avatar
 
Posts: 742 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 2,822 given, 2,433 received


Quoting 
I agree with you about indicators, I'm largely against them, but have been using some lately for my data collection purposes. The problem is that they only tell you about the past, and things can change in a split second, then the indicator adjusts itself so it is misleading.

Everything you are looking at on a price chart is looking into the past, that includes the candles your looking at as well. Your argument applies equally to the candles, trendlines, order flow, volume profile, and anything else you can come up with to put on a price chart.

Every time you place a trade, your placing what amounts to a bet on a future outcome, a coin toss, which you cannot predict. Each new individual trade outcome is unique and random.

The market doesn't care how smart you are, or how hard or long you worked at finding the trade signal/system/method your using. Each moment in the market is unique and the market will do what it decides to do with no regard to you or your wants, needs, desires or feelings.

Be Patient and Trade Smart
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  #89 (permalink)
Elite Member
Rochester MN
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Oanda
Favorite Futures: Micro-FX
 
Posts: 82 since Jan 2014
Thanks: 178 given, 21 received


kevinkdog View Post
I tried to help. I failed. I'm out.

I wish you the best of luck.

I just don't understand where all the aggression is coming from or why, and sometimes I feel it is unsubstantiated. I do feel there was an outrageous urgency to your statements, and it (among other things other people have said) has inclined me to read the ask any trading question thread, so, don't consider it a complete failure. I know I'm not the smartest peanut in the turd, thank you for your patience.

"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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  #90 (permalink)
Site Administrator
Manta, Ecuador
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Favorite Futures: E-mini ES S&P 500
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 46,240 since Jun 2009
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supermht View Post
he need time, the time his account is wiped out, for couple of times...

then he will understand you

That's true of most good traders I know

Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
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