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jamiecassar's trade journal


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Updated March 11th 2014 by trendwaves
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jamiecassar's trade journal

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  #21 (permalink)
Rochester MN
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Oanda
Trading: Micro-FX
 
Posts: 82 since Jan 2014
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Wow... Head Ssssplode.. what mike just said about placing the stop loss really hit home to me. Placing a stop based on what you can afford to loose would be like going all-in with pocket kings: you could flop an ace. .. i.e to risky and doesn't make sense. To this now I thought about readjusting my losses from 2% to 5%, but even that is most likely not enough. I will still create an account, just to get it started but not use it at all. Then when I get my tax returns I will put in another 500. Then every few checks I will put in another hundred etc. until I can gauge when the volatility matches my 1-2%.

I can't thank you enough Mike, am truly grateful. Best to get those evil thoughts out before they blossom

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  #22 (permalink)
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jamiecassar View Post
I agree with you Tiger! I don't have $100,000 of risk capital. I don't trust the sim, it's why I want a live account, even if I'm only trading the micro fx. Why do I want to trade live at all? Because I believe I have an edge. My edge is that in a certain market, and between a certain time frame, I won't loose (as much) money. I've been studying this market and I know how it behaves (at least for a few hours). I don't know how I can gain experience if I don't ever do anything. And besides, it's only $500. I think that if I can break even in the micro markets considering commission costs would better than a major victory. I know (for reasons unforseen by me) that my first account will most likely get blown. I am prepared for that. I do not think I will come out ahead, I think that commissions will eat up my account faster than I know, but in reality it's only a few hundred dollars, I think that is money well spent to make 50+ live trades! (even if they are tiny ones).

Hard to know what to say about this.

I doubt that you will manage 50+ live trades before the market eats you. It's not commissions, it's the market that will do it.

Not to discourage you, but to wake you up: you may have seen the statement that 95% of retail traders lose all their money. Perhaps you should think about the odds in that light.

If you believe you have an edge, fine, can you take 50+ consecutive trades in sim and be a net winner with it? Have you done that kind of work?

Even if you have, live trading can scramble your brains very effectively, and make you forget all your strategy. Only if you're really sure of what you're doing, and know about managing your risk, can you hang on to any edge and make it work. And sorry, but if you are "sure" about what you're doing without having a lot of work behind it, you are not really sure, just over-confident.

I hope someone can dissuade you, otherwise you might as well just throw $100 bills out the window.



jamiecassar View Post
Comments like that make me want to study up and learn about stuff, then beat the market even harder!!!!

-- Good idea. Learn more. Then trade.


jamiecassar View Post
I think I will not consider trailing stops, just moving the original one to a break even, and perhaps lowering my profit target to 30-40% and not 50%

You should do some (i.e., many) sim trades, moving your original stop to break even, and see how it works out. (Hint: you probably will lose out on a lot of trades as the market comes back to pick off your stop.) That is one of the points of not moving a stop.

I don't understand those profit targets. You should look to make a profit of x ticks (or pips in FX) on each trade based on some analytical reasoning plus experience. If you expect large percentage profits, well, the market will instruct you.

And I guess that's the end of my shaking a finger at you. I wish you success, and I am sure the market will provide the lessons. I really hope that you forget this jumping into cash thing, but at least keep the amount low. You will lose most or all of it. Really fast. No kidding.

Or, you can spend more time doing that boring old thing called learning more, like everyone is talking about. Sure, you have to jump in sometime, but it's way early yet for you....

When one door closes, another opens.
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  #23 (permalink)
Rochester MN
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Oanda
Trading: Micro-FX
 
Posts: 82 since Jan 2014
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bobwest View Post

I don't understand those profit targets. You should look to make a profit of x ticks (or pips in FX)

Well it's not a certain amount of pips or ticks, its just how far the market will rise/fall to even itself out after a huge drop (or rise) however far that might be.

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  #24 (permalink)
Rochester MN
 
Experience: Beginner
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Trading: Micro-FX
 
Posts: 82 since Jan 2014
Thanks: 178 given, 28 received

@ bob, tiger, and everyone else trying to dissuade me :

I am following your advice, because I don't know why, I feel I am ready but I will not argue.

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  #25 (permalink)
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jamiecassar View Post
@ bob, tiger, and everyone else trying to dissuade me :

I am following your advice, because I don't know why, I feel I am ready but I will not argue.

false knowledge can be very detrimental, but acknowledged ignorance can be quite beneficial

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  #26 (permalink)
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jamiecassar View Post
When I said "all I can afford" I guess it was bad linguistics on my part. Apologies for the confusion, I meant to say that 8 ticks would be 1-2% of my total capital. I suppose "all I can afford" means every dime!! I wouldn't ever risk more than 1-2% on any one trade. I would rather only risk 1% but that's not possible doing what I'm trying to do. Right now my plan is to just sit and wait for the right opportunity, and when it comes be ready. I plan to wait for (at least) a 20 day low or high, then buy once the breakout (or not) is confirmed.

Thank you for your advice is really is helpful, I think I will not consider trailing stops, just moving the original one to a break even, and perhaps lowering my profit target to 30-40% and not 50%


edit: ok when I wrote this ^ up there, I didn't realize what was being said to me

I understand.

But the advice is unchanged. If your maximum stop for any trade is 8 ticks (1-2%), then you don't simply put a trade on with an 8 tick stop. That makes zero sense. What in the market, the chart, the price action tells you the 8 tick stop is where you would be wrong about the trade? Market doesn't care about your 8 ticks, 1-2% account size.

Hope you understand.

BTW, any time someone tells you something that reads as "fact", you should always do your own homework and research before concluding the same. Unfortunately, newer traders aren't properly equipped (lack of experience) to do the research properly so sometimes you have to just trust the more experienced traders in the beginning. But careful with that, as many traders act experienced when they are not --- but even more to the point, even the most experienced traders dispensing the most accurate advice may not help you because you are not them and they are not you. Trading is an intensely personal experience. Just because something works for someone else doesn't mean it will for you.

Nonetheless, here is a good webinar on collecting and researching statistics:
https://futures.io/webinars/june11_2013/futurestrader71_statistical_analysis/

Mike

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  #27 (permalink)
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jamiecassar View Post
Wow... Head Ssssplode.. what mike just said about placing the stop loss really hit home to me. Placing a stop based on what you can afford to loose would be like going all-in with pocket kings: you could flop an ace. .. i.e to risky and doesn't make sense. To this now I thought about readjusting my losses from 2% to 5%, but even that is most likely not enough. I will still create an account, just to get it started but not use it at all. Then when I get my tax returns I will put in another 500. Then every few checks I will put in another hundred etc. until I can gauge when the volatility matches my 1-2%.

I can't thank you enough Mike, am truly grateful. Best to get those evil thoughts out before they blossom

Percentages are all that matter. It is advisable to not risk more than 1-2% per trade. Many risk even less. This is crucially important to beginners because you aren't going to make money in the beginning. Instead your goal should simply be to survive the learning curve, and that means you need to play the long game and be able to place the 100th, 1,000th, or 10,000th trade and have the capital to do so however long from now.

Micro currency futures like M6E can be useful for minimizing dollar loss while letting you set appropriate price action based stops. You would never, never try to trade something like Crude or Gold as a beginner.

Mike

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  #28 (permalink)
Rochester MN
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Oanda
Trading: Micro-FX
 
Posts: 82 since Jan 2014
Thanks: 178 given, 28 received

Yes, I think I might use the 2N stop, where N = Volatility. And then, only if 2N falls within my 1 or 2%

Thanks again for putting up with all my nonsense

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  #29 (permalink)
Memphis, Tennessee
 
Experience: None
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Hey man, if you're looking for advice mine is go ahead and break a ton of rules, fall down, make mistakes, learn from them, and make new ones until you find what works. Following advice can be tricky, because at some point in your journey you MAY come to a realization or an idea that goes against conventional wisdom that actually works for you. At that moment will you still follow advice, or will you go with your verifiable experience and proven results? I'm not saying anyone here is giving you bad advice. In fact, I'm constantly reading, watching, and learning from the good folks here at futures.io (formerly BMT). All I'm saying is that once you gain a certain amount of knowledge and experience be prepared to roll with it, no matter what anyone else tells you. Hopefully, you'll be able to stay in the game long enough to get to that point, and that's in large part what it appears the other participants in this thread want to see you do.

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  #30 (permalink)
Site Administrator
Manta, Ecuador
 
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Posts: 48,784 since Jun 2009
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deltason View Post
Hey man, if you're looking for advice mine is go ahead and break a ton of rules, fall down, make mistakes, learn from them, and make new ones until you find what works.

BTW, I agree completely. The only real way to learn is to get out in front and start doing things for yourself. This is why I am very against "trading rooms" and such, as they don't teach you to trade or think for yourself but instead to become reliant upon others.

Collect your own statistics, do your own research, prove your own methods. Read forums, articles, blogs and etc for ideas that help you think of new ways to create or explore an edge, but never accept the result of the original author as fact or as something you can duplicate until you've proven it to yourself.

Mike

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March 11, 2014


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