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jamiecassar's trade journal
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jamiecassar's trade journal

  #91 (permalink)
Elite Member
Rochester MN
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Oanda
Favorite Futures: Micro-FX
 
Posts: 82 since Jan 2014
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trendwaves View Post
Everything you are looking at on a price chart is looking into the past, that includes the candles your looking at as well. Your argument applies equally to the candles, trendlines, order flow, volume profile, and anything else you can come up with to put on a price chart.

Every time you place a trade, your placing what amounts to a bet on a future outcome, a coin toss, which you cannot predict. Each new individual trade outcome is unique and random.

The market doesn't care how smart you are, or how hard or long you worked at finding the trade signal/system/method your using. Each moment in the market is unique and the market will do what it decides to do with no regard to you or your wants, needs, desires or feelings.

Yes, it is very similar in these aspects to poker hands. You could have the best starting hand (i.e. entry point) in the world and still loose (i.e. stop loss), all it does is increase your probability, and yes, every hand is different. Most of what I have been researching is how other traders think, for example:

"Wilder never meant RSI to be an oversold/overbought indicator.

...But then over the time traders actually made it an oversold/overbought tool. Since many traders nowadays act and react to RSI oversold/overbought signals, I believe there a reason to state that RSI indicator has found its new purpose and interpretation, forced by masses."


I dunno who said this but it applies to many different areas of trading, patterns, indicators, etc. This is also the reason I started looking up simple beginner strategies such as Stochastic line crossover

"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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  #92 (permalink)
Elite Member
Rochester MN
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
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mental note pg 17 ask any trading question

"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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  #93 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Ok, just wanted to say thanks to everyone

I WAS WRONG, YOU WERE RIGHT

None of the comments hit me until last night, when it was painfully obvious I was on the wrong track. I am very thankful I did not continue practicing bad trading habits for much longer. Being a musician, I know that it is 10x harder to re-learn something you do incorrectly, then learn it right the first time.

I have done a mindwipe, starting over at zero. Everything I know or thought I knew about trading I have abandoned completely. I packed my bags and threw them away.

Starting over from scratch, I am taking The Art & Science of Trading course offered by Adam H Grimes (Signup | The Art and Science of Trading). Printed out the 75 page workbook, and am currently marking pivot points, and writing sentences on each bar. If I can find a way to record the Al Brooks daily trading sessions (I am at work during main market hours) I will sign up for that as well.

I feel I am very fortunate to be on the right track at such an early stage, hopefully forgoing many of the pitfalls of others that have come before me. I owe it all to you guys, I really am thankful; This is a great site with a wonderful community and thanks again for all your help.

"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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  #94 (permalink)
Hi Mom!
Bridgeport, Ct
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra
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Posts: 365 since Jun 2012
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Check out this journal when you have a chance

Jamie,

In addition to Big Mike's advice, head over to tturner's trading journal here : https://futures.io/trading-journals/30151-2014-price-action-trading.html. I've been following it since he started and it may give you some insight into price action trading and Al Brooks. Enjoy the holiday.

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  #95 (permalink)
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Futures Experience: Advanced
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Quoting 
Being a musician, I know that it is 10x harder to re-learn something you do incorrectly, then learn it right the first time.

Agree 1000%

Practicing the wrong way is not practice, it's a waste of valuable time. Both in the time wasted developing the wrong habits and in the time required to unlearn and relearn the correct technique. Practice with correct technique does add value in learning your new skill and developing good habits. Good trading habits are those that consistently and safely lead you to desirable outcomes. Any habit or belief that does not satisfy that goal needs to be discarded as quickly as possible.

Be Patient and Trade Smart
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  #96 (permalink)
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Rochester MN
 
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Yeah haven't written for a while, been real busy. Have been going through Adam Grimes The Art & Science of Trading course. Turns out I've been doing three times the homework (no wonder I'm still not done!). I like it, can't wait to take the Al Brooks course. Started to learn Microsoft Excel to make my trading spreadsheet. Excel is totally amazing. Reason is, I copied Adam's sheet formula per formula, but it didn't translate to Forex very well so had to make my own. Finally got it working, I use it as a Profit Target calculator mostly, but I suppose it's a habit I need to get into logging my trades.

Started using Median Lines, or at least I know how to make the pitchfork, but haven't found many setups with that yet. Also started using Raschke's "holy grail". Actually I started to use it and found it to be somewhat accurate then quit because I thought it was too indicator heavy and was not price action at all. I found that Adam Grime's uses her 3/10 (modified macd) oscillator so I think I might try to incorporate it a little, to help me spot pullbacks (which I am having major trouble with right now). I want to read her book, but I kind of want to stay away and not use indicators and just study "price action" which is becoming harder to define the more I learn.

The beginning of last week I was doing my trade homework and found some of the techniques very successful so I started trading them on extremely tiny amounts, and they were working. The end of last week they weren't working at all, so I suppose it takes more time and practice.

Started trading the Daily charts, I almost prefer it to the 5min, but only time will tell. I tried trading the 15 minute chart, using the 1Hour for "direction" but was failing. My thoughts are to get confirmation on several different time frames before entering a trade, and I've been waiting and watching, but it never happens, and typically the other time frames contradict themselves.

I have become aware of the spread and it has prevented me from making many many trades.

Trading is not easy by any means and more and more it seems like gambling to me, which I hate, i.e. is it a pullback or is this a support/resistance test? is this a breakout? Is this breakout signal going to continue or is it just higher retest?

If nothing else I have learned the Failure Test which does work and if it doesn't you have a breakout which is just as good, and from doing the homework I can chart 1st, 2nd, and 3rd level pivots and make swing lines with no problem (although I have yet to find out what to use them for). Ok enough blogging and whining for me time to get back to studying!

"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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  #97 (permalink)
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Long days. It seems like months have passed. Someone mentioned something about using the cross of SMA's to enter the market in another thread somewhere. I had been doing lots of manual backtesting on various indicators to find out how often they fail, like Stochastics. I want to crunch some numbers on this SMA thing, just so that I can be aware what percentage it works, or doesn't. I did lots and lots of reading on how to properly scientifically analyze something, how to manage the data set, and all the work that goes into it. Bottom line is I have to do it myself. This led me to take up programming, so I can create a simple indicator to send me an alert when the conditions are met, then I can start making a data set. So learning MQL now, I'm on the last section of the 1st part (Basics) it is lots of work but I am exited about ints, doubles, functions, variables, etc. Someday I hope to put it all together and do something useful. At least it gives me something to do when the market is flat/ranging like today... it's been so narrow for about 7 hours now, just waiting for it to pop. I used to hate consolidation but now it has me exited, I feel something big is about to happen in the market after being so tightly ranged for so long. Consolidation = building of energy. Setup 2 trades this morning before work and I see they both hit my profit targets when I came home. I make a lot fewer trades now, I need the probability to be really high, but the wait is worth it, i.e. not making as many loosing ones. Trading the 30 minute charts takes way longer than I ever knew.

"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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  #98 (permalink)
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finally gaining some confidence

K here's this afternoons trade. Kinda hard to see why I took it, but I had Heinkin Ashki <sp?> candles on when I decided to short aud/cad. Basically this rounded top was a failure test it's a pivot high, pretty close to a resistance level that has been tested twice (or more) before. I also used stochastics (10,3,3) to confirm my entry point. The green line is my 2nd PT, the 1st PT (about halfway inbetween) was hit while I was taking a nap, but the order didn't go through because I must have hit the limit sell instead of limit buy button. My plan was to take 1/2 my profits at the 1st PT and then the rest at second target. Anyways glad that my stop wasn't hit, and I should make 20+ pips.

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"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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  #99 (permalink)
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I took a personality test for traders and I ranked as a swing trader. (thank god i'm not a position trader!) So, being aware of this, I redesigned everything I know to take a different approach. I will trade the Daily charts and the 4 hours. Length of trades on the daily chart typically range from 1 week, to 45 days. Length of trades on the 4 hour charts are typically 1 day to 1 week, so I am going with the 4 hour charts for now. This is good for me because I can "set it and forget it" I just have to check in on my trade a few times a day (once in the morning before work, once in the afternoon after work, and then again before bed). My stoploss will be 100 pips, and my profit targets will be 100-400 pips.

After much trial and error up until now I have decided to only trade the EUR/USD currency pair. I used to trade the top 25 pairs, then last week I narrowed it down to only the 7 majors (ones with USD in them). Now after studying the charts I know I can reduce risk and increase profitability a very great amount by only trading the EUR/USD. The other pairs are just too unpredictable for me right now, especially the JPY ones.

I think this new mode of thought will be good for me, because the less time I am trading, the more time can be used for learning, which I have been doing a lot of lately. Read 2 more books, one of them was Linda Raschke's Street Smarts, I thought it was amazing how much of it still holds true today many years later. Then last night I started learning about Wyckoff and wow. This guy was from 1902 and his reasoning still holds up. Head Xplodes

"Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process."
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  #100 (permalink)
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Quoting 
I took a personality test for traders and I ranked as a swing trader. (thank god i'm not a position trader!) So, being aware of this, I redesigned everything I know to take a different approach. I will trade the Daily charts and the 4 hours.


Quoting 
After much trial and error up until now I have decided to only trade the EUR/USD currency pair.

Looks like measurable progress.

For swing trading I like the Daily and 30 minute chart combination. In some situations such as extended trend channels, the 60 minute works well in place of the 30 minute. Just something to consider, of course use what works best for you. FX traders seem fixated on the 4 hour chart, the reasoning for that choice has always escaped me.

Be Patient and Trade Smart
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