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Listening to the markets
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Listening to the markets

  #21 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
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CADUSD 2H.

Hmmm Don't like this uptrend very much for now.

Two more weak things about this chart, the distance covered selling is more than half the move up, and compared to other charts i'll be posting later it is really weak.

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3 Hours after

GBPUSD

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EURUSD

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AUDUSD

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CHFUSD

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Last edited by metobi1; February 10th, 2014 at 06:22 AM. Reason: Other charts
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  #22 (permalink)
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Forex Updates,

EURUSD

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GBPUSD is giving mixed signals

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AUDUSD went down to move up sweetly

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CHFUSD

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CADUSD HMMMM Bearish looking long term, but possibly bullish short term we shall see

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Last edited by metobi1; February 11th, 2014 at 06:01 AM.
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  #23 (permalink)
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An aggressive buy here would have been awesome b'cos, the market has been up, and the down move had, was without a true cause, so it was always going to be short lived, now market stopped with good volume and buying and moved to the edge of the down trend channel.

It could have retraced and shrunk, but there was no way to know except that, the bar which broke the down trend channel showed ease of movement in its close and good volume increase.

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  #24 (permalink)
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Before going on about what I've seen today and my possible prospects, I'll do a quick recap of some mistakes I made yesterday that lead to (not quite horrible) a wrong expectation/misunderstanding of CADUSD.

1st mistake is below

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A proper trend line should have made me realize that CADUSD was on the way down the channel and so any failed attempt of it to stop the down move and go back up would have been easier to put into perspective.

A market in a channel may hit up and go straight down or move sideways till it hits the lower end of the channel, seeing the channel is essential for a better analysis.

2nd Mistake

Not seeing the long term/overall trend made me concentrate too much at the wrong areas of the short term trend, and made me give myself too much work thinking out the why's.

Now Now, it wasn't all bad, I give myself props for seeing at least that the first spring attempt wasn't a convincing one, and the manner in which CAD sold from the highs was just too aggressive till there were better buying indications.

But this made me paranoid and totally stay out of this now awesomely flying up market. Till ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... NOW, even now I am/have not been in this move going up.

So yes I am happy I am developing a sense of seeing what is and what appears to be. Meaning sensing when danger is afoot (I said that with gundolfs air of wisdom, and know all ).

So I dint take any part of the losing when many opportunities appeared to show themselves, But I dint also take part in winning .

So now to how I would have analyzed this with the added info.

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AWWW would be late for work , I'll continue this in 2 hours

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This presents a complete look at all the forces in action on the chart. An internal trend took price to the height of the channel before massive selling on that long bar with heavy volume drove price down on wave 1

Wave-1 stopped at former support, the volume bars showed volume gradually reduced, that would ordinarily be a great place to place a buy, with stop below the long buying bar to the left.

The problem here was the selling was fast and when you compare with other currencies, the selling had the most impact on this pair, the up-bar should have been wider and the volume better than what was visible for a convincing rebound to have occurred, this was what made me alarmed at a buying mindset.

Wave-2 consisted basically of inside bars, which was not too convincing when you look at the selling that occurred, and when you compare this instrument to others in the same market(USD pairs).

In Hindsight, The price was overcoming the demand on the trend line from the low of the trend channel.

Wave-3 started with a wide bar down that closed up as if buying was finally entering to take over, buy the next bar showed an ease of movement to the down side. A third bar was a possible absorption/buyers taking all the sellers have to offer at the support, showed by increase volume but shrunk bar.

This failed and price crashed down only to recover and close on the highs, This was another place I would ordinarily have bought with a stop as before, but for one reason or the other, I wasn't convinced (here's where the gandalf effect was at play )

What to take note of here is the visible increase in volume on wave 3, marked.

The price goes once again to the lows of wave 3 and shrinks as if confirming the stopping of the down move, especially as volume visibly drops, and we are finally at the bottom of the overall trend channel. But it was not to be as price makes a finally shoot down, taking out all that bought and put stops below the great buying bar.

So what made me think the move down was finally over-

1. Price had been running down with little or no cause built.
2. This was the widest bar since after wave 1 started and the close/ volume indicated buying from the lows (here is where tape readers may see more).
3. The subsequent push back down showed a drying up of volume (big deal - this had happened before).
4. What had not happened before was the wide up bar with visibly increased volume, which was the widest up bar since the bar leading to the top of the overall channel. Also this bar took us out of the selling trend channel and it occurred in an oversold area.
5. As usual comparing to others showed that the buying was actually better than most on that bar.

This was actually the logical place to buy as this finally showed a change in behavior, from consistent pressing down to ability to rally


Last edited by metobi1; February 12th, 2014 at 06:53 AM.
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  #25 (permalink)
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And then a look at the markets today.

GBPUSD.

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EURUSD

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Last edited by metobi1; February 12th, 2014 at 07:29 AM.
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  #26 (permalink)
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GBPUSD updated

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EURUSD.

Wow what a sudden move down. It wasn't totally out of place though, there were subtle signs the market would retrace, I pointed them out in my last EURUSD update, I just didnt think anything of the move since I wasn't sure it would amount to anything (plenty pips in profit) Ah well you can never win them all, just enough to get you rich, So What has/is happening now. Lets see

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AUDUSD.

This one beats me for now, no logical buy or sell apparent to me, so Ill just fold mine arms and watch, But its interesting to see wychoff principles at play again and again. That man really understood the markets.

Here we have a market follower, others starting with the leader we have CAD then CHF, EUR and now AUD then NZD, in that order. That is how this aspect of the general uptrend has had the participants retrace. (Read you a wychoff -- now thats my gandalf voice )

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CADUSD.

Here is where I envy Gary D's nerve of steel he has developed while trading. I hope to get there someday soon

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Last edited by metobi1; February 13th, 2014 at 04:06 AM.
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  #27 (permalink)
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The super GBP

Still very strong looking, am on a strong watch-out for this one, I will see you when you show you want to go down. he he ha haw haw (my evil bone chilling laugh - picture mortal combat), still buy-able though at logical points only and stops tightened at earliest opportunities.

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  #28 (permalink)
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Hi

I notice volume study is a significant component of your analysis and trading plan.
The volume you are measuring doesn't tell the whole story because the cash market is an interbank market traded off exchange. Therefore the volume recorded by your provider will be very different from each and all the other FX market makers.
It would serve you better to monitor the FX futures as they all trade on one centralised exchange. By all means trade a cash market to reduce position size, but trade off the futures market data.

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  #29 (permalink)
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kickmic View Post
Hi

I notice volume study is a significant component of your analysis and trading plan.
The volume you are measuring doesn't tell the whole story because the cash market is an interbank market traded off exchange. Therefore the volume recorded by your provider will be very different from each and all the other FX market makers.
It would serve you better to monitor the FX futures as they all trade on one centralised exchange. By all means trade a cash market to reduce position size, but trade off the futures market data.

I appreciate your input, but what the true volume figure (could be awesome) isn't the basis for my analysis, its more of how much or less volume comes in at certain areas, after certain price action.

The questions I need answered are like, is volume stopping this movement, does it shrink/or improve, what is the nature of volume on a bar that closed half of the bar etc

So except the volume is deliberately made smaller on some bars and bigger on others(direct bar and volume manipulation on the chart), it is still fairly ok.

I did notice that using the same data feed IB on the java platform netdania gives a clearer view of volume differences. But unfortunately it doesn't have a wave volume measurement that I can combine like on mt4

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