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MV's Journal

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MV's Journal

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  #1 (permalink)
Posts: 135 since Dec 2013

I am a opportunistic swing trader and part time daytrader. However, if market conditions are particularly interesting I will be glued to my charts. This journal will mostly be my daily analysis and swing trades in my OptionsHouse account. I like to have things planned out a day ahead or more for swing trades.

Here is a quick description of the indicators so you understand them. MV Wave is based upon similar math as Stochastics and is used for wave counts. MV Strength is similar to Rate of Change, and MV Spring... Just ignore that! Any questions, just ask.

Quick glance at the big picture. Lot of long term strength. Odds say this pullback only lasts a couple more weeks then we setup for a move back up.

I will try to time a small short if we get a rally off the fed reaction. I don't see the potential for any good swing setups until around the start of next year. Need another cycle of selling after a bounce for a buy setup.

I will try to update this journal around 1-2 times per month. That is the average amount of trade setups I get on a daily chart. Might get a bit distracted by my other businesses though. Hopefully I will have the time to do a lot of trading late 2014.

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  #3 (permalink)
Posts: 135 since Dec 2013

Hmmm... The momentum on the fed reaction was much much stronger than expected. The strong break above median eliminated the potential for a short setup.

I have been thinking over the event and am kind of puzzled why the reaction was so big. I have come up with two different theories to explain it. One... There is a LOT of old money in the market with memories of the old days when the fed would tighten hard and wouldn't care about the markets. They had a lot of fear before the news and were holding back. Second... A lot of funds and hedge funds were hedging and taking risk off before the announcement. More cost effective to hedge stock positions with futures than options.

Next pullback cycle will be a buy provided it doesn't retrace this cycle beyond 50%.

Tip: A few of my trading rules... I don't hold positions through big news events, or hedge, and I don't daytrade within 5 minutes either side of big market moving news releases. Ecb/Fed/Jobs report, etc... Stuff like consumer sentiment cpi, etc... They are fine.

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Last Updated on December 20, 2013

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