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Paps pre open prep
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Paps pre open prep

  #1 (permalink)
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Paps pre open prep

This has taken me a long time to start penning down my thoughts. Reason for me to start this is to keep track of my thoughts & thinking. Later go and analyze it to compare against my actual trades/charts & any thinking I may have not during the trade day. I think this will help me to keep the journal as a central repository to compare my thinking against any other notes I might have in a db.

What I will start journalling is my ideas & thoughts. I at times may or may not base OVN statistics and formulate bias before the same is available. This is due to time I may or may not get to journal before the RTH US. However I do keep a note on OVN stats before RTH and figure if the hypothesis still holds merit as in the journal.

I do use many indicators...my main platform is tradestation. However have no affiliations with any of the vendors from who I have indicators. From time to time I may throw in a chart as deemed fit...else this thread will journal my bias for the next trading day. Though I use analytic's and indicators overtime I have found certain patterns which serves as my bias for next trading day.

If you have any questions or disagree with anything....please feel free to comment. I will humbly try and assimilate your question & try to answer to the best of my ability.

Well what also inspired me to start today...for the ES session I had a bias to short which never happened as I woke up late. I only had my volatility trades on for the day which I had got into 2 days back so not able to trade ES was not a major concern. My bias however on ES when EU session started on 12/11/13 at 12am PST was a short @ 1806 -1809 with a drop anywhere between 15-20 pts. Well the market did sell off w/o me in . However due to rollover the data may be a little funky over next couple of days which could also throw bias off track.

Note:- Since I am a discretionary trader I may or may not trade my bias as in this journal....depending on change of observations/change of thoughts or any market conditions.

Usual disclaimer:- Please note anything in this thread is just my observation. It is not a recommendation to anyone to buy/sell or trade. As this is again just a collection of thoughts & should not be used for trading by anybody.

cheers
paps (som)

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  #3 (permalink)
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well getting into trading day 12/12/13.

The March contracts have no volume at the time of writing this & waiting to see what volume may come in during EU open.

Well I am looking at certain characteristics & am thinking we may get into a bounce scenario. yes I know we expecting ES to sell deeper which cannot be ruled out.

However there could be market moving news as we have some news today during EU session (SWITZERLAND SNB INTEREST RATE DECISON), Pre US ( UNITED STATES INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS/RETAIL SALES YOY/RETAIL SALES MOM)

Well I know the EU has a move up & we could really sell into the ES. But market is unpredictable & both/any possibilities should be entertained.

Am biasing towards a move to atleast the highs of where ES sold off from (1803-05s on The Decembers..but I will follow Marchs if volume sets in).

Depending on breadth / Tick and where we are wrt to VWAPs the trade day will be looked at for entry/exit. What will be a key area is 59.50s as I will be watching March contracts if volume moves in. If so I expect the day to play upto 1797 - 1803s which will be quite a move. However this move may also come with ES down ticking to the 64-66s. If this holds it will be playing into characteristics i found on 10/30 & 11/7 and may other days. Even if market moves that much I may or may not hold depending on entry as I am in market typically for 2-3 hours.

Well the opposite is also true. The ES could sell off to the 1737s as I see that on some harmonic patterns.

Note that OVN stats have not formed & news in the making....which could easily warrant additional insight.

cheers
paps

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  #4 (permalink)
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well was a mixed day.... really waited on my setups. Just had 1 trade.....since it did not pan out as what i thought....also volume seemed to be a little messy between the March/Dec's being traded. Anyways i was able to get a scalp of the lows this morning. Was not able to let it run as I was nearing 9.30-9.40am when i typically have stopped trading. Will post Fridays bias probably before RTH. Well am going to upload a file too to check if am able to get this done.
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  #5 (permalink)
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Futures Edge on FIO

Which products do you trade?

 
Well targets above what I have is 1786's-993 zone & downside will be looked into if 1768-66s is breached.

Today is a Friday....so will also look for initial signs of where market wishes to head using Tick n Breadth.

As of typing Price Currently @ 2 Day vwap which is 1771s...& current vwap is 1772. If the vwaps hold it is also likely price may go for the weekly vwap sitting at 1790 which could also be a distinct possibility.

cheers
paps

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  #6 (permalink)
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Guys went short after open...also went into long position which was a 2/3 tick due to platform issues. Time not on side due to my trade day getting over. Overall bias was long.
.but saw big commercial selling.
no current bias as out of all trades....happy that inspite of platform(internet) issues came out +ve. Will see if will trade Monday...so close to holidays. If I do will send in levels which I would track. Risk ..reward needs to be good for me to get in...hence will have an eye out for weekly and 2 day VWAP.

Cheers
Paps

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  #7 (permalink)
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Guys....as of writing this...time is 11.30PM PST on 12/15/13. ES futures have had a big drop @ Sunday opening.

This is my initial thinking. There is no current bias as it was a big drop at open. Not sure if this will be a Gap n Go situation at open...hence will also consider OVN stats as ES can always backtrace. She's a runner

My preliminary thinking is that.....the 69s to 72s will be a important hold if ES really rallies into the year. Reasoning is also that the Sells on Fridays sessions were initiated from this zone. Also as of current the ES 2 Day VWAP sits @ 69.72 and the ES Weekly VWAP sits @ 63.25. Sundays open cut thru the weekly VWAP but price has since bounced. But there is also a Zone which is marked on the charts which I will be watching for in terms of Resistance & Support.

For me going into the open....will be keeping a close eye on breadth & internals. 69-72 will be a price i will watch for it it trades there....If price opens lower I may look into a Gap n Go situation....but will need to make a call then.

Harmonics ...am attaching a few patterns. It still looks like a down to me....but you never know...& hence any possibility is a given. Have not attached another pattern as I did not have written persmission...where I did see a Long fail within a Short....so that means the short is still playing. If so....how low can she go? . This will be a volatile week if tapering happens....if so will there be no rally?....who knows this question..definitely not me....so I better pull my socks n trade what I see.


Well as before ....these are no recommendations to anyone one & should not be used for trading. This is for my educational purposes only.

Cheers
paps

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  #8 (permalink)
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Well 45mins-1hr away from my trading day to get done. Am in a scratch position. Did not read market action quite well & entry was a little messy as did not have patience to hold the short @ 83s. Well into a Short early on and did not hold for much...came out with a scratch. guess a hold for little more would have been few ticks profitable if not more. But action did not quite suit me since i could not get short at quite the highs.

Breadth was pretty strong at open...^ Tick n Breadth did put a little downward expansion. Well may not get into a trade today. The Market has rallied quite a bit. May watch for a short if possible if price keeps chugging. If not end of days play for me.

paps

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  #9 (permalink)
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Woke up late....so just made it to RTH open and did not get time to pen my thoughts.

My bias as of EU open was 77-78s will be LIS. Well went long and then short..for scratch. When price blew past n below 77s to the almost 71 marker....took a scalp long for only 2ticks....as my bias by then had turned into buying the 65.75s.

Not in a position....per rules my buy really never triggered. Will watch tomorrow for what happens. If this breaks no yr end rally....& if this doesnt and taper later next yr will re-evaluate my equity longs...ES still remain a day trade. Was hoping to my volatility but is not near my price yet.

Almost ....end of days trade for me....unless she gets to my long entry in next 15-30mins...in which case i may get in considering conditions at that time. Screwy thing will be it may need to be an auto trade with stops in place rather than me watching and adjusting. Well greed needs to be under control ....cya

cheers
paps


Last edited by paps; December 17th, 2013 at 01:43 PM. Reason: as my bias by then had turned into buying the 75.75s....should read 65.75s which was what i was thinking
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  #10 (permalink)
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I have no bias getting into RTH on 12/18/13. Will wait for OVN to develop. We have seen stuff play out between 1786s -54s. So a touch of either or break of either is a possibility on upside/downside on a day such as tomorrow.

Todays Close & where Tick opens & doing in the initial mins will govern my day. Also where breadth opens & what its doing.

a)Looking at two possibilities....Price to head lower @ open from 1773 roundabouts....
b)Or Price Bouncing of around 1773s round about.
c) Also if price is touching 1790s before RTH....i may go in for short without considering a) & b)

In either case will wait and see if can get any setups based on observations of OVN.

will try and close in 1.5 hours as need to head out.....the more we get towards FOMC & other announcements....there may be no logic.

cheers
paps

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