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Paps pre open prep
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Paps pre open prep

  #21 (permalink)
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Well my journal closed for now in 2014. A spade is a spade is a spade. Well trades on ES have not faired well at all in 2013/14 inspite of being good positive...given back good gains and more. Gone 97% all cash for 2014 with a gain of 1x% on a SDA till date in 2014. But ES performance was real poor in 13/14 which is rather dumb. Trading is not a game and dumb is not acceptable if wanting to excel at ES.

Looking at few things in introspection.

No real shakes happening other than few things which are being explored & rectification of messy habitual patterns.

Dont have any views currently & hence if something does not change may not get into the real meat of things.

Parting charts for the moment for my reference only. No inferences should be made and are not ideas for anyone else reading this. I would like to come back to my charts and journal at some point in time & hence putting it in here for my reference only.

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  #22 (permalink)
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@paps just a marker to myself. I did get into the markets for swings & in and out of momentum equities since the start of the year. Out of gogo last week on the good bounce. Currently have pos in few momentum stocks of the year..... time to take a decision has come i.e June

feel that this week & month has the makings of a whipsaw or catching me off guard. Quite a few market moving events lined up.

This is being written almost @ futures markets on sunday 6/1/2014... Important dates for fine tuning and taking decisions will be most probably every Friday this month or as necessary dynamically for active/new pos.

cheers
s

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  #23 (permalink)
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paps View Post
Happy New Year !! 2014 will be great.

Well have been thinking how i wish to go about the prep for the New Year !!..... I will trade ES...but I might as well think about a little longer swings on my equities. There is good $s in swings in my thinking which i will pursue on the side.

Since it is the start of the year.....and just of the Highs... the current levels we are at...are big in my opinion...

A)i am still not a buyer for long term equities....1741 is a drastic level...if we reach that....i will buy for a potential sell at 1870s. Levels to watch if we head lower for me are 1817s/1804s/1791s/1780s. If i trade ES it will be scalps.....this is not my level to buy for 5-8points or more considering i trade just 2-3hrs a day...unless i see a reason . Reasons are very strict counter trends on extreme sells which typically happens when we have 40-60k commercials short.

B)Well....markets are tricky. If truly the punch bowl is taken out this year.....would they rather not sell into the highs. I guess they would....& hence we did see this correction. If this line of thinking is true....then prices can reach highs again. The earlier highs will then be taken out for 1870s & a potential of 1950-60s. This in my opinion is what i will watch for to sell on ES. And also to buy. Buy what at this high. Volatility....which should be cheap. Well markets are markets @ we can roll over from here itself. Well if so...my sell does not trigger.

C) Well if the 1810-16s hold...price can move higher from here. Reason is the 1760-1810 saw some extra ordinary volume burst. So if prices move higher....i want to see the 1810s hold like a brick.
But there are many folks who are pointing at the markets being at a critical level. So the game will be to be nimble...& not marry any position or bias. Since am not really a student of MP....but i keep a watch for levels only which are more like pivots to me...I may or may not have a prep...as the bias changes as we go along the trade day. Also i see myself writing my preps way before EU opens and solid 6.30 hours before US opens. Reason:- I typically do not have time to write my prep before US open. So will decide how to structure my prep or any variations in the coming weeks/months.

Well enough of rants. Everyone can write....few keep their $s. I want to be a lil tough on myself. I am not sure how the prep will come along to be modified in the coming days. I will wait and watch markets for long term equity/volatility trades as well as ES.

Cheers n good luck. Keep the ball rolling. These are just observations for my education.

paps

This is just a note to myself. No action is implied. I myself get in & out of positions many times & more so on big name momentum stocks & hedges. As of writing this last 2 months or so i am not into ES at all as i cannot devote time i want. Only playing inside my SDA & if can meet or beat my current stats for 5 odd months of 2014 i am happy.

Well now that Volatility is real cheap & targets almost to what i had thought....need to strategize. At the time of writing the above post in early Jan...i was eyeballing VXX / VXZ at roundabouts 12-13/30s which is around where it is today.

Current strategy will be dynamic ...but something strange is going on. But what i do have are positions with hedges on volatility. Might not be a perfect strategy.... but will work for me till my systems which are currently under dev tell me otherwise.

cheers
s

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  #24 (permalink)
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Management of Ego/Greed/Fear at these times is no different from other times. Go back n check on risk management.

cheers


Last edited by paps; June 8th, 2014 at 01:10 PM. Reason: too expressive...not in context....
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  #25 (permalink)
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Momentum players have been my fav's in 2014. Out of my last momentum stocks as of last Friday 25th which was feye/twtr....so missed on the 20% jump on twtr

Am currently only holding volatility. Will check to either close/hold in the next few weeks.....if not earlier. will need to check if this is market noise..

nothing in life is a guarantee and hence will take things as they come or will handle at a moments notice and may or may not update my log.

no fear/ no greed. will do as market says and instructs.

may think of wrapping up years p&l.... but will check how it goes from here.

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  #26 (permalink)
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May close volatility today and re evaluate in few days.
This is a note to myself only for my learning.


Sent from my DROID RAZR using Tapatalk

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  #27 (permalink)
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Anyways all is done. Longs locked on last friday. Volatility locked today. So few chips in the bag. Am flat which is not that a great feel as i have no advantage at this time.

Not sure why i got out of my longs or volatility(it is the greed to lock-in & beat the markets...not sure if thats a good thing in the long run since i see am going in for swings). Anyways the charts might have been messy today....but i have seen worse numbers across my excel systems on the major indices when hell breaks loose. Am i a Bull.. well doesn't matter since i did not buy today.

I hope i can get into positions if my levels hold & not left behind.... am flexible both ways either up or down. However my play will be hyper growth or huge momentum stocks on the long side. Not sure when i will get in. It will be between tomorrow & 2 months. On the short if i do short...it will need to be if my systems tell me more on the markets ...else no shorts but only small buys in volatility for few days.

anyways all notes to myself...so i can go back in few months and refer to my psych.

so a great marker with 5 months to go. Chill Pill n all the best.

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  #28 (permalink)
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Well i did get into a very small pos on BAC on Friday. Will see what happens. This was to just keep my itchy fingers happy.... & not take any large positions at this level.

Anyways...i think my reads coming into the year around the 6th of Jan...seems to have been met at the downside(1741) & the upside(1950-60s). However I do not see clear conviction/ direction that i can gauge currently..as i just ran few of my systems. There are splats of some concerns which will keep an eye out for..but no current big flag on my end. Will need to see how it resolves. There are no prior precedence at these levels....which makes it interesting to blow past or exceed highs which is always at the back of my mind.

Am currently looking to see if there can be small spurts of buys for me and will wait to see if my band of support holds which for me is around 1850-70s which is what i am watching. Will be get there or take it out convincingly...who knows...but i want to be ready mentally to take some step. Is this a breakdown/shakeout or breakout...well we will know by the end of the year. Am hoping it is a shake....but hopes are for dreamers.

anyways too many things going on with my life. Trading has not been getting the attention it needs & hence into the swings. However surprisingly this is currently the best year of my trading career even though out of my SDA. All other accounts are in cash due to no time. So will need to be level headed..... & if required ready to close n go to cash to lock p&l if cannot spare the few mins to run my excel stuff. however that may not happen as am hoping to add few %'s getting into the year. Hence i have been practicing lockin's for the last 6 months which I have never before done other than when i day trade.

anyways again these are my rants captured for my education only....so that i can reflect back in time to see how i was setup mentally and what was i looking at. It may/may not reflect actions i take. I realize there are subtle effects of journal-ling though i am into swings. Hence this may be cryptic. My idea was to have a pre open journal with charts but life seems to have taken over....so whenever a post is made...is forward looking into the next day since EOD data has been analyzed. Since it is excel based i do not post here & just showing numbers without explanations may not make any sense. Hence i put few words which i can reflect on.

there are few things i still analyze and capture from time to time on the ES which i consider bread and butter ...... i may post at a later time if i start trading ES. One such thing which is persuasively intriguing to me has always been signs preceding a break down of ES a good old 20-30pts or bigger move in a single day .

anyways cheers & chill pill.

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  #29 (permalink)
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Well seems like will be in vegas most of next week with tix in hand this evening. Will have access to the Net but who wants headache ...the weather seems to be very hot there anyways.

Will close on the BAC though the pos is small. Will wait to see what markets have in store. Either ways i would love to enter when all run. For now will go all cash. Firmly believe that I will have enough opportunity getting into the close of the year & hence will be patient.

Am hoping that the markets hold. So on a dip may buy with a stop as it could dice thru my level's in the head. Anyways a lot of time left in the year. Will not anticipate, this is one hand i will let the market show 1st and play for the last quarter.


cheers and chill pill

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  #30 (permalink)
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got busy today. Glanced at the markets ..saw green & then forgot I wanted to get out on my BAC. Well I think will do so on Monday as i dont want to be in a pos for the next week. If the market chugs along i may miss out.....if not I would like a better price on my fav momentum's for the possibility of a better ROI/RR.

am in no hurry ...since a tag of 5-10% onto current +xx% on the portfolio is great from here onto the EOY.

Just looked at my figures. If she flies from here....this was just noise. If she does a slight dip ...it will be great to see reaction on momentum stocks & see if folks selling with 2 hands.

anyways.... will talk less. Lot of geo-pol stuff going on. this can go either ways. Though i prefer higher will i get chance to buy ? these are just my thoughts which i like to pen down.

cheers
s

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