Well have been thinking how i wish to go about the prep for the New Year !!..... I will trade ES...but I might as well think about a little longer swings on my equities. There is good $s in swings in my thinking which i will pursue on the side.
Since it is the start of the year.....and just of the Highs... the current levels we are at...are big in my opinion...
A)i am still not a buyer for long term equities....1741 is a drastic level...if we reach that....i will buy for a potential sell at 1870s. Levels to watch if we head lower for me are 1817s/1804s/1791s/1780s. If i trade ES it will be scalps.....this is not my level to buy for 5-8points or more considering i trade just 2-3hrs a day...unless i see a reason . Reasons are very strict counter trends on extreme sells which typically happens when we have 40-60k commercials short.
B)Well....markets are tricky. If truly the punch bowl is taken out this year.....would they rather not sell into the highs. I guess they would....& hence we did see this correction. If this line of thinking is true....then prices can reach highs again. The earlier highs will then be taken out for 1870s & a potential of 1950-60s. This in my opinion is what i will watch for to sell on ES. And also to buy. Buy what at this high. Volatility....which should be cheap. Well markets are markets @ we can roll over from here itself. Well if so...my sell does not trigger.
C) Well if the 1810-16s hold...price can move higher from here. Reason is the 1760-1810 saw some extra ordinary volume burst. So if prices move higher....i want to see the 1810s hold like a brick.
But there are many folks who are pointing at the markets being at a critical level. So the game will be to be nimble...& not marry any position or bias. Since am not really a student of MP....but i keep a watch for levels only which are more like pivots to me...I may or may not have a prep...as the bias changes as we go along the trade day. Also i see myself writing my preps way before EU opens and solid 6.30 hours before US opens. Reason:- I typically do not have time to write my prep before US open. So will decide how to structure my prep or any variations in the coming weeks/months.
Well enough of rants. Everyone can write....few keep their $s. I want to be a lil tough on myself. I am not sure how the prep will come along to be modified in the coming days. I will wait and watch markets for long term equity/volatility trades as well as ES.
Cheers n good luck. Keep the ball rolling. These are just observations for my education.
Last edited by paps; January 7th, 2014 at 03:32 AM.
Reason: wanted to note 1760-1810 levels!!
Well the day played out like i thought it would...will try and post some charts later on what i thought. Anyways i did not trade ES and was late in the markets. Still shrugging of post holiday blues.
Anyways was in a bonus equity position....so not a bad start for the year.
Am in no real hurry to get into trades. Will check tomorrow/day after. There will be enough volatility in 2014 per my thinking..... so will ease into the game.
Will try and post some charts if possible.....into what i was looking at..... need to get a good package...at times the editor i use hogs memory.
Am still not into a sell bias....but may lean into one..as charts just coming up....& currently it is still almost 2 hours away from EU open....& 8.5 hrs away from US. .....will need to see formations of price development......but she looking like she could do the twist...
Need to check the opening prints into full liquidity.
cheers n goodluck
The following user says Thank You to paps for this post:
Still getting out of the year end. Well really did not trade...rather took a +3tick and ran as was late for trading & needed to split.
Was expecting a break as breadth on NQ had flatlined for a bit...ES would break for a few points was certain. But it was 45mins for FOMC & needed to run...so +3 "ticks not points" is what i settled for.
Anyways...still 2hrs away for EU & 8.5hrs away for US. I would really like price to be in & around the 32-35 range at open...will see.
Am looking at 2 scenarios for ES:- ofcourse sell or buy.
Sell Zone for me is 35-40s & buy zone is well below 06-17...rather large huh.....yupp but needs to be seen realtime.
Anyways....also looking for either of the 2 scenarios to kinda play for a short for me:- -300s open tick & AD @ 200 or 340tick & AD 300+ with price above yesterdays close of 1832s for a indication to sell. Well thats as specific i could be....& will look at stuff in the morning few mins to see what is going on.
I will also be looking at certain equities....one of them being FEYE. But that may be quick or a swing.
quite a bit on the calendar before & after the bell..so nimble will be good.
Well...it did crack those prices. Well am into a few swings on equities. Keeping an eye on ES....but have few things to take care off & attend to.....hence will be only into swings on equities for immediate future.
Bigger timeframe players have come in which is good.