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Mike Sullivan Trading Journal


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Mike Sullivan Trading Journal

  #151 (permalink)
Dallas
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, NQ
 
Posts: 28 since Feb 2014
Thanks: 37 given, 8 received

Expectancy

Mike, I have to make a few more posts to enable my PM.
Regarding risk management, assuming a system has a 70% win rate, risking 10 ticks to make 5 ticks, assuming 0.5 ticks commission, is a break even system.
Obviously, to alter this, you have to increase the win rate, increase the profit target and/or decrease the risk.
Assuming the market is CL, where each tick is $10:
Increasing the win rate >70% is difficult, if not unrealistic, especially for less skilled traders. Mark's win rate based on historical figures is in the 70% range.
Increasing the profit target 1 tick to 6 ticks would result in an average profit of $7/trade (at 70% win rate). However, increasing the profit target may reduce the win rate, and a rate of about 66% would again be break even.
Decreasing the risk seems to be the best alternative, but even that will alter the win rate.
It appears you may be considering a 10 tick auto trail to manage this.
Have you considered using a smaller range chart somehow to fine tune entries for less initial risk?
Given your experience with the strategy, I am assuming you have considered all of this already, and I don't pretend to be bringing anything new to the table. Rather, I am just wondering what your conclusions on these ideas are based on your experience.
Thank you.

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  #152 (permalink)
Saratoga, NY USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL, GC
 
Posts: 377 since Aug 2010
Thanks: 141 given, 807 received

Up Win Rate...


laenxin View Post
Mike, I have to make a few more posts to enable my PM.
Regarding risk management, assuming a system has a 70% win rate, risking 10 ticks to make 5 ticks, assuming 0.5 ticks commission, is a break even system.
Obviously, to alter this, you have to increase the win rate, increase the profit target and/or decrease the risk.
Assuming the market is CL, where each tick is $10:
Increasing the win rate >70% is difficult, if not unrealistic, especially for less skilled traders. Mark's win rate based on historical figures is in the 70% range.
Increasing the profit target 1 tick to 6 ticks would result in an average profit of $7/trade (at 70% win rate). However, increasing the profit target may reduce the win rate, and a rate of about 66% would again be break even.
Decreasing the risk seems to be the best alternative, but even that will alter the win rate.
It appears you may be considering a 10 tick auto trail to manage this.
Have you considered using a smaller range chart somehow to fine tune entries for less initial risk?
Given your experience with the strategy, I am assuming you have considered all of this already, and I don't pretend to be bringing anything new to the table. Rather, I am just wondering what your conclusions on these ideas are based on your experience.
Thank you.

laenxin

Agree with all you say.
Call me crazy, but I believe can find certain RLT entries that are
pushing 80%... like 1st ABC's on a new trend/cycle, etc.
Look for only a couple of trades per day for income.

Lets keep in touch, exchange charts etc...

Mike S
michael.sullivan1014 - Skype

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  #153 (permalink)
Saratoga, NY USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL, GC
 
Posts: 377 since Aug 2010
Thanks: 141 given, 807 received

Trade setups for 4/15/2014...


Greetings

3 for 4 today Net 9tix or $210 Net after commissions...

Focusing on conservative RLT [8R Chart] and Mack PA trades [800tix Chart]

7:37am... GC Candle break below Red 15/50MA. Strong 50MA slope
9:04am... CL +5 ABC above Green 15/50MA - in range but busted thru
9:44am... CL -6 SEL [2nd Entry Long] count from last pivot. Strong spike n channel
9:53am... CL +5 SEL - count from Top deeper PB allowed this...

Mike S.

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  #154 (permalink)
Buenos Aires Argentina
 
 
Posts: 1 since May 2013
Thanks: 1 given, 0 received

RLT

Hello Mike, I want to ask you something for PM about RLT but Im new and I dont send private message.
Can you send me a email that can I do that ?
Thanks
Victor

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  #155 (permalink)
Saratoga, NY USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL, GC
 
Posts: 377 since Aug 2010
Thanks: 141 given, 807 received

Trade setups for 4/16/2014...

Greetings

No trades today but here's only 2 that were nice to take following the RLT rules...

8:34am... GC +5 ABC above Green 15/50MA's
9:37am... CL +5 Mom below Red 15/50MA's

Again practice patience / discipline will get you to your daily profit goals!!!

Mike S

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The following 2 users say Thank You to msull35706 for this post:
 
  #156 (permalink)
Saratoga, NY USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL, GC
 
Posts: 377 since Aug 2010
Thanks: 141 given, 807 received

Trade setups for 4/22/2014...

Greetings...

Took 1 price action trade today for 8tix.
Looking to work this into RTL methodology.

Price Action based off Mack's method on BigMike...

7:08am... CL +8 SES [2nd Entry Short] off session low. 21 EMA strong slope.
Cut profit to 8 from 10tix for it hit 9tix twice. With TL [Trend Line] break
looking for price to revisit previous low or session low

Mike S.

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Last edited by msull35706; April 22nd, 2014 at 09:16 AM.
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  #157 (permalink)
new york city new york/usa
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: tos
Trading: es
 
Posts: 4 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 0 given, 0 received

Tick Charts


msull35706 View Post
Greetings...

Took 1 price action trade today for 8tix.
Looking to work this into RTL methodology.

Price Action based off Mack's method on BigMike...

7:08am... CL +8 SES [2nd Entry Short] off session low. 21 EMA strong slope.
Cut profit to 8 from 10tix for it hit 9tix twice. With TL [Trend Line] break
looking for price to revisit previous low or session low

Mike S.



Hi Mike...Thanks for keeping up to date with this...have you found that the tick charts can be just as effective as the range charts...I hate those darn things...jump around way too much....additionally...have you tried the software with the ES Mini...Thanks

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  #158 (permalink)
Saratoga, NY USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL, GC
 
Posts: 377 since Aug 2010
Thanks: 141 given, 807 received


captvict View Post
Hi Mike...Thanks for keeping up to date with this...have you found that the tick charts can be just as effective as the range charts...I hate those darn things...jump around way too much....additionally...have you tried the software with the ES Mini...Thanks

Greetings Captvict

Actually tick charts are far better for Price Action analysis.
Range charts normalize price too much.

I'm going to be an expert on drawing Trend lines + Channels!!!

Mike S.

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  #159 (permalink)
new york city new york/usa
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: tos
Trading: es
 
Posts: 4 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 0 given, 0 received

Tick Charts

Will the software work with tick charts or any other chart? Thanks Mike

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  #160 (permalink)
Saratoga, NY USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL, GC
 
Posts: 377 since Aug 2010
Thanks: 141 given, 807 received

Trade setups 4/25/2014...


Patience prevails!!!

Waited for trend line break and took SES for 10tix
Right Line also was showing strong Red slope for 50MA

9:15am... CL +10 SES off top with trend line break.
Looking for retest of low or make a new low


Mike S.

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