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Trading Price Action on EURUSD Spot FX


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Trading Price Action on EURUSD Spot FX

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  #1 (permalink)
isaacsu
Melbourne Australia
 
 
Posts: 24 since Oct 2013
Thanks: 7 given, 9 received

After a false start attempting to learn to trade by SIM trading GC on 5min charts, I have discovered the folly of my ways. Here is the new plan. Hopefully it's a little more sensible this time round.

Instrument: EURUSD Spot FX
Timeframe: 15min charts
Approach: Price Action
Size: Spot FX Micro-lots ($0.10/pip)

I'm trading a tiny live account.

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  #3 (permalink)
isaacsu
Melbourne Australia
 
 
Posts: 24 since Oct 2013
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Timezone is Australian GMT+11.

Trade 1
I waited all day for this one. Price was in a tight range. Placed stop entries on both ends of the range with SL on opposite sides of the range.

Hit Long Stop @1.37510 with SL on the other end of the range @1.37321.

Price tested Pivot Point and doubled back.

4hr charts show longer term bearish trend. My hunch was that this was another one of those temporary spikes like the one circled in black. Also, there was a bit of "noise" around the Pivot Point earlier on the chart (~22:30). I promptly closed out the position @1.37621 for 11.1pip profit.

Trade 2
Euphoric from what I thought to be a decent trade, I decided I'd try to ride the spike down. Went short @1.37603 with SL right on the tip of the spike @1.37677. Price was favourable for a bit before SL was taken out for a 7.4pip loss. Expectation was for price to return to pre-spike level, or better, resume bear trend.

Two things I would've done differently.
1. Not taken the trade. The trade was taken on a whim. It felt rushed, and was a bit of a gamble to "reward myself".
2. The trade could've worked if I'd place the SL slightly further above the spike. Longer term trend was bearish. It had a good chance of working out. Instead I gave back a good chunk of my winnings.

I swear I got taken out by a stop hunter. What an experience!

+3.7 pips

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  #4 (permalink)
 NW27 
Newcastle, Australia
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Good to see a fellow aussie.
Good luck.

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  #5 (permalink)
isaacsu
Melbourne Australia
 
 
Posts: 24 since Oct 2013
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Woke up this morning to an emerging ascending triangle with resistance around previous day's PP. Marked up the formation and the Double Top in anticipation for a downward breakout.

Was out for an appointment when breakout occurred. When I got back, had to think really hard before deciding to go short @1.37603 when I did. Stop Loss was just above the PP where resistance held, so risking around 27pips.

I didn't have a exit in mind. It was a clear bear trend on the higher timeframe, so I let it break past the 1.3700 level, and test S1.

Started to get a little nervous in the evening when a minor uptrend began to form with a couple of Higher Lows, breaching the 1.3700 level, the previous resistance @1.3710 and tipped my position in to negative a couple of times. I finally exited where I thought the next Higher Low might form for 11pip profit.

Reasons to remain short:
1. Bear trend on the 1hr timeframe

Reasons to exit my short position:
1. I was late to get in. Would've felt more comfortable with a tighter stop if I'd gotten in earlier.
2. The higher lows, breaching of key levels 1.3700, 1.3710 creeped me out.
3. Support at S1 might hold.
4. I was afraid of the possibility of a losing trade.

If I had just waited another 10 mins or so, the price would've broke out under S1 and I'd be sitting comfortably on an extra 20pips as I'm posting this.

Then again, if I'd waited another 10mins, I might've been in negative?

What did I miss? Was it a good enough decision to exit, or were there signals that I should've picked up pointing to the downward breakout after I exited the short?

+11pips

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  #6 (permalink)
isaacsu
Melbourne Australia
 
 
Posts: 24 since Oct 2013
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Feeling pretty bad about myself for missing the bear trend yesterday. If I'd just stayed in, I'd be more that 130pips up with more to go.

Things I need to watch out for today:
1. Not try to "redeem" my trade from yesterday.
2. Not try to force a trade.
3. Remain objective and trade as though yesterday's dud didn't happen.

Upon further reflection, I think my difficulty in staying in came from the conflict I had looking at 3 different timeframes: 1hr, 15m, 5m.

1hr had a clear bear trend. 15m was showing a tiny bit of hesitation that presented itself as a pretty established bull channel on the 5m.

My mistake was placing too much weight on the 5m formation and letting it override what I was seeing (or rather not seeing) on the higher timeframes. I should have done the exact opposite and prioritized from high to low time frames.

Obviously fear came into play an place a frickin magnifying glass on the 5m threat of the price going against me - that and my general "distrust" of higher time frames by their virtue of requiring larger stop losses from me.

Wish me luck!

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  #7 (permalink)
isaacsu
Melbourne Australia
 
 
Posts: 24 since Oct 2013
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Some improvements I've made to my terminal that has had a positive effect so far.

1. Turned off the 5min charts. Instead of 1hr, 15m, 5m, I now only have 1hr and 15m up.
2. Turned off my running Account P/L. Now I've only got an Open Positions tab, and focusing on pips rather than $ value.

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  #8 (permalink)
 Silver Dragon 
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isaacsu View Post
[IMG]

Obviously fear came into play an place a frickin magnifying glass on the 5m threat of the price going against me - that and my general "distrust" of higher time frames by their virtue of requiring larger stop losses from me.


Hi @isaacsu

Interesting view on distrusting higher time frames. If I might I would like to provide a different perspective. If you take 10 trades during the week on a 5 min chart with a 15 tick stop versus taking 1 trade during the week on a daily chart with a 150 tick stop then you are still risking 150 ticks in either trading scenario. Honestly the biggest difference between low time frame and a high time frame is how many trade setups there are.

As a day trader myself who is now swing trading I can tell you fewer setups are better.. less stress and less chance of giving back what you have made.

Robert

My view of the Euro this week: One good entry at 1.3775 ish with a 75 tick stop and a target of 1.3460 to 1.3500


nosce te ipsum

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 NW27 
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Silver Dragon View Post
Hi @isaacsu

Interesting view on distrusting higher time frames. If I might I would like to provide a different perspective. If you take 10 trades during the week on a 5 min chart with a 15 tick stop versus taking 1 trade during the week on a daily chart with a 150 tick stop then you are still risking 150 ticks in either trading scenario. Honestly the biggest difference between low time frame and a high time frame is how many trade setups there are.

As a day trader myself who is now swing trading I can tell you fewer setups are better.. less stress and less chance of giving back what you have made.

Robert

My view of the Euro this week: One good entry at 1.3775 ish with a 75 tick stop and a target of 1.3460 to 1.3500


True about the combined risk but...
1 trade a week, get it wrong and your 100% losers, as opposed to 10 smaller trades that say have a 50% winners and say a 1:2 risk to reward and your in front.
As Van Tharpe says, it is better to take lot's of smaller trades then pin your hopes on one bigger trade.
Even on the shorter time frames, people always want huge profits. Isn't it better to take lots of smaller profits with higher percentage winners than take the occasional big trade a) because its big causes more stress, b) due to the bigger time frame it has a lower setup frequency, c) has higher risk when you aren't there to manage it.

Neil.

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  #10 (permalink)
isaacsu
Melbourne Australia
 
 
Posts: 24 since Oct 2013
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Silver Dragon View Post

Interesting view on distrusting higher time frames. If I might I would like to provide a different perspective. If you take 10 trades during the week on a 5 min chart with a 15 tick stop versus taking 1 trade during the week on a daily chart with a 150 tick stop then you are still risking 150 ticks in either trading scenario. Honestly the biggest difference between low time frame and a high time frame is how many trade setups there are.

As a day trader myself who is now swing trading I can tell you fewer setups are better.. less stress and less chance of giving back what you have made.


NW27 View Post
True about the combined risk but...
1 trade a week, get it wrong and your 100% losers, as opposed to 10 smaller trades that say have a 50% winners and say a 1:2 risk to reward and your in front.
As Van Tharpe says, it is better to take lot's of smaller trades then pin your hopes on one bigger trade.
Even on the shorter time frames, people always want huge profits. Isn't it better to take lots of smaller profits with higher percentage winners than take the occasional big trade a) because its big causes more stress, b) due to the bigger time frame it has a lower setup frequency, c) has higher risk when you aren't there to manage it.

Awesome discussion. Here's something I've started to discover about position sizes and stop losses. Previously, I attempted to "take lots of smaller trades" on GC with crazy tight SL (3 ticks). Turns out, because GC is pretty noisy, you can't get any meaningful movement out of 3 ticks (or even 30 ticks for that matter according to other more exprienced members on futures.io (formerly BMT)).

This means there is a pretty high chance that smaller trades with tight SLs are going to be stopped out, so 50% winners is going to be very hard to achieve.

Rather than running tight stops to limit exposure, I put on smaller sizes with larger stops. Instead of a 1 lot position with a 3 tick SL, I would run a 0.01 lot with a 300 tick SL.

Furthermore, trades take time to think through, plan and execute. So especially for a beginner like me, I've found taking 10x the time to plan one quality trade far more profitable than taking 10 small frequent half-baked trades. I've also been very intentional about doing a double, triple, quadruple take before I enter a trade - more often than not, there's something that I've missed.

So smaller sizes, wider stops, meaningful movement, quality trades.

Just a beginner's 2 cents.

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 Cashish 
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isaacsu View Post
Awesome discussion.

I agree, great discussion but I have to throw my hat in the ring. There is no right or wrong way to do this, it's personal! I believe each of us has to find our own path. I also believe finding that path is the downfall of many beginners, for one reason, they (I include myself here) run out of trading capital before they find the method (time frame) that fits their belief system (personality). Each time I was beat down by the market I had to ask myself two questions, 1. Do I want to give up, or do I want to invest more capital and give it (trading) another shot? And 2. What method or methods (time frame) will I focus on this next time? As pointed out up thread, the one key to finding your fit is RISK. As long as I control my risk on every trade, I can bounce around between methods until I find that one method that fits me like an old shirt. My only "suggestion" (if I may) would be, take your time, try not to hurry the process.



isaacsu View Post
Furthermore, trades take time to think through, plan and execute. So especially for a beginner like me, I've found taking 10x the time to plan one quality trade far more profitable than taking 10 small frequent half-baked trades. I've also been very intentional about doing a double, triple, quadruple take before I enter a trade - more often than not, there's something that I've missed.

There's always something we've missed, or just plain refuse or even don't know to look at, the market is an enigma it's made up of countless moving parts. Big Mike teased us once about a Peter Steidlmayer webinar here on futures.io (formerly BMT) but since it hasn't happened yet I'll have to post this link.

"Masters of Change": Evolution of Market Profile to Match Today?s Markets - Trader Kingdom

I'm paraphrasing here, but in this webinar Peter asked himself, "What do my 25 best trades have in common?" His answer to himself was they weren't planned, they were impromptu trades, they (the trades) just looked good at the time! A similar comment was made by Linda Raschke in one of her futures.io (formerly BMT) webinars. I'll also paraphrase, she said, "You just know, when you have a BIG fish on the line." I'm not suggesting you need to be a student of either of these legendary traders, the point I'm trying to make is, as experience and intuition begin to creep into your trading, you may find the less confirmation you seek, the better the outcome may be. After all, RISK is what this is all about. As I suggested earlier, try not to hurry the process, the market will be here tomorrow, next week, next month even next year.

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  #12 (permalink)
isaacsu
Melbourne Australia
 
 
Posts: 24 since Oct 2013
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Price has continued to trend down from last night with very clear trend/pullback phases.

Trade 1
8:20, I went short @1.35797 with stop loss just above previous Lower High @1.35995. In retrospect, I should have waited for the next Lower High to develop before entering, I was too eager. DT before the drop was a nice confirmation. Around 1730 (near Trade 3) a small bull channel developed that had me on edge and almost tipped me over to close out (Similar thing creeped me out to yesterday). I held on to the trade until around 22:35 and closed out for a 60pip profit.

Trade 2
I tried to add a second short around 14:00 @1.35543 with a tight stop loss just above what I thought was a HL two bars back (around 13:30). Stopped out for ~5pip loss.

Trade 3
Tried again to add a short position around 17:15 @1.35489 with stop loss just above previous perceived HL (around where Trade 2 closed out). Stopped out for ~14pip loss.

Trade 4
19:00 Price broke through bull channel and previous Higher Low. Third attempt at putting on a short position @1.35443. Stop loss just above the peak of Bull Channel. Closed out at 22:35 for 26pip profit.

I closed out my positions early because I had to call it a day. Could've ridden both position way past the 1.35 mark and made an extra 30pips * 2 positions, but I didn't want to leave the open over the weekend.

I was slightly on edge today because of missing the bear trend yesterday, so there was a bit of "trying to force a trade" rather than waiting for a trade to come to me. Steenbarger talks about this in terms of imposing one's internal beliefs on the market rather than listening to what the market is saying.

First time I doubled up on a position too.

Oh, I also lied about turning off the 5min charts. Towards the later half of the day, I pulled it back up under one self-imposed condition - to not make any decisions based on what the 5 min is showing. I had to face my fear and watched in horror as the bull channel emerged around Trade 3, and sighed a huge relief when it broke down.

+67pips

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isaacsu
Melbourne Australia
 
 
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Not a good start to the week. I think I came in feeling a little too pleased with myself for firstly not making a loss last week, and secondly, netting just a touch over 80pips.



T1
I went short @1.34887 with SL just above previous high near "DT? wrong!". At this point, I thought "I've done this a few times. Higher timeframe is a bear trend, spotted Double-Top, go short". Stopped out within half an hour for -9.6pips.

T2
After a first loss, I started to think, maybe Higher Timeframe is in a bounce. The move downwards did lose a bit of steam before going into the weekend, and we haven't seen any significant action all morning. And look, a Higher Low at around T1 and a Higher High subsequently. So I took a long @1.34966, Stop Loss as previous HL. Stopped out within the hour for -11.6pips.

T3
Ok, now we're seeing some movement - let the bear trend continue! Went short @1.34615 with SL just above previous HL around T1. Bear trend did NOT continue. Stopped out 2 hours later for -27.6pips.




T4
Another streak of overconfidence - I got a bit bored waiting for things to emerge on EURUSD, so I pulled up the AUDUSD 15min chart and spotted what I thought was a textbook trend. Marked out the HH's and HL's, and entered long @0.94903, SL at previous HL. Stopped out within the hour for -13.3pips.

Lessons learned today:
1. I should let the markets establish their movements at the start of the week. Maybe trading Australian Monday mornings isn't such a good idea.
2. Don't get bored, distracted, and put on stupid trades.
3. Patience. Patience. Patience. Trading is as much about sitting it out as it is about getting in on the profits.

Also, after reading around a bit and discovering that I'd ridden mere snippets of something like the largest EURUSD 4 day drop in 15 months (~400pip move), I'm now inclined to believe that last week was a lucky fluke for me and that I've got a long long way to go.

On a positive note, setting Stop Losses saved my ass twice today - T2 on EURUSD and T4 on AUDUSD.

For now, I'm going to sit out the rest of the day. Let the bars run for a bit, do some reading and start again tomorrow.

-62.1pips

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isaacsu
Melbourne Australia
 
 
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isaacsu View Post
Steenbarger talks about this in terms of imposing one's internal beliefs on the market rather than listening to what the market is saying.

Correction - it's actually Mark Douglas in "The Disciplined Trader", not Steenbarger.

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  #15 (permalink)
 NW27 
Newcastle, Australia
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Who's trading the euro at this time of the day on a Monday? Certainly not Europe or the yanks.

In regard to the aussie, after a parabolic move like that a) there has to be a correction in time before a trend might continue. b) Just look at the 11.30 bar. Big bars start and finish trends. c) The 20ema is a good time measuring tool. When price moves a long distance away from the ema, it usally has to pull back this amount of time before a trend might resume. d) it is best to await for a second pull back before getting back in with the trend.
Just my thoughts.

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isaacsu
Melbourne Australia
 
 
Posts: 24 since Oct 2013
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Bull trend seemed to pick up a good momentum and looked pretty established especially after clearing the 1.350 mark. I set a long entry order @1.3506 with a stop loss at a "generous" 5pips below @1.350 for a total stop size of 11pips. Left it at that and went to bed hoping for the best in the morning.

It turns out, my order was filled but was stopped after midnight for a loss of 11.2pips.

Lesson from this trade:
I need to learn to run wider stop losses. This involves being more confident in my setups, and being psychologically prepared to hold on rather than panicking while the trade is still in the negative.

-11.2pips

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isaacsu
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Dismal day today.

Watched as EURUSD climbed back up overnight. Thought to myself - "I know, the bear trend is finally reversing! Should get in early on this" - WRONG!

T1
Went long @1.35172 after what I believed to be a Higher Low. Now in retrospect, it looks NOTHING like a Higher Low, if anything, I should've seen the Double/Triple Top and bailed out. But no, I took the position, picked a Stop Loss at previous Higher Low, and DOUBLED IT (for the simple reason that I had to learn to run wider stops).

Position showed promise all the way to the 3rd peak of the Triple Top, and it was all downhill from there, but I didn't bail, because I wanted to ride out my Stop Loss. So I give myself points for sticking to the plan, and deduct points for poor observation that led to a poor plan.

Stopped out for a 23.1pip loss.

T2
The bar where T1 was stopped out was a pretty big move (also because I was crazy-zoomed in on it), So I thought, ok, maybe we're still bearish - don't want to miss this move! Went short @1.34903, Stop Loss at previous LH on the preceeding bar. Stopped out for 12.1pip loss.

T3
After T2, I thought, okay maybe stop was too small, still think the bears are in play, also that the 1.3500 should hold. So I went short @1.35009 with SL right around the first LH after the DT/TT. My trade was promptly validated. It felt good to not have a negative sign in front of my position P/L for once this week. Also pretty pleased with myself for taking the trade without fear and disregarding the previous failures.

T4
Was around 20pips in the green for T3 when I thought, This is working - I should double my position with a tight stop. Went short @1.34866 with a 5pip SL.

Then around 20:30, something happened - price just blew right through both the stops on both T3 and T4. for a total loss of 9.3pips. I should've seen the double bottom in the sticks right after T4 and bailed out right there.

Stop doing:
- Making decisions and put on trades from FXCM mobile
- Forcing patterns out of the market.

Start doing:
- Patience. Wait for the trade to come.
- Enforce 30min trade timeout after any position close.
- Sit out on uncertain trades.

Keep doing:
- Stick with the plan.
- Execute without hesitation.

-44.5pips

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 NW27 
Newcastle, Australia
 
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Wasn't there a news announcement at 8.30?

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isaacsu
Melbourne Australia
 
 
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Another day of losses.

T1
I tried to put on a post-symmetrical triangle breakout trade in the direction of the apparent bear trend on the higher time frame.
Put in a short stop entry @1.34680 with a generous stop loss placed just a few pips above the 1.3500 mark.
Price broke downward to fill my order but didn't decline any further, instead finding support around 1.3470. Around 13:00, rally broke off. I hung on tightly, waiting for the decline to resume. Never came. Position got stopped out for a 37.5pip loss.

T2
Waited through self-imposed 30min trade ban. I then decided - surely this is a fake-out and the bear trend should continue. So I took another short position after I believed the rally had peaked @1.35122, stop loss just above the peak of the previous rally.

T3
T2 went well through the early evening. So well that I decided to put on a second short @1.35724 - thinking to myself, I need to make back my losses. Price continued to decline. The swings started getting bigger when London came online. I thought nothing of it since the peaks were making Lower Highs.

Stepped away to have some dinner and run some errands. When I came back around 20:00, started getting a bit nervous because it started getting pretty volatile. Spotted the "expanding downward wedge" pattern, and had just enough time to find out it was a strong bullish pattern and exit my positions before the breakout happened. Closed out T2 and T3 for a combined loss of 6.4pips. Not very much, but significant considering they were sitting at over +20pips at one point.

T4
Had to call it an early night - was also pretty sad from T2 and T3. Was in bed when I thought - if it really was a strong bullish sign, I should get in long and ride it out. I broke two rules - traded less than 30mins since last close, put on a trade from my tablet. Went long @1.3535, 11pip SL just above 1.3500. Stopped out within 15 minutes.

Things I've learned to notice today:
1. Learning to ask "who's paying to get in, or get out of the market?" and "who is hurting the most now?" as I'm watching the price action.
2. I pulled up the fibs levels much later after the expanding wedge had formed to find that the all the levels held at one point or another. Amazing.
3. Learning to read the volumes to look for price levels where lots of transactions went through. If volume is thin, people are either asleep, or lack any motivation to transact.


Stop Doing:
- Trading less than 30mins since last closed trade
- Trading from tablet
- Doubling up positions (I don't think I can afford the risk for now)
- Trading based on the need to make up for losses.

Start Doing:
- Identifying the market participants and who's hurting the most.
- Pulling up fib levels
- Being aware of major news events

Keep Doing:
- Identifying patterns.
- Acting on them without hesitation.

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  #20 (permalink)
isaacsu
Melbourne Australia
 
 
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NW27 View Post
Wasn't there a news announcement at 8.30?

You're right, there was. I should learn to keep a closer eye on the events.

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isaacsu
Melbourne Australia
 
 
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Volume has really thinned out in anticipation of the ECB press conference, US GDP and Employment data.

I took one trade around 13:30, a short @1.35135 in an attempt to ride the mini bear trend downwards. Tight 6pip SL just above previous LH. Didn't hope for much. Stopped out for 6.5pip loss.

Stayed out the rest of the day. I had some idea that the next 24-48 hours were serious; didn't think it would be *this* serious.

Really excited to see what happens. I will stay on the sidelines and watch as the pros duke it out. Maybe sim trade a little so I stay connected.

-6.5pips

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  #22 (permalink)
 tturner86 
Portland, Oregon
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: F-16CM-50
Trading: GBU-39
 
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Posts: 6,172 since Sep 2013
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I just followed over from your old thread, good choice on spot fx, I suggested micro currency futures but didn't think about spot FX. I will be following your thread, I trade the 6E/E7/M6E EURUSD future contracts so I like to see forex action as well for the EURUSD.

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bgeorge
Thessaloniki
 
 
Posts: 29 since Jun 2010
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The big bear candles (18:49 and 18:59 gmt on May 14th 2014) gave me the impression that the bears are in charge. The upward moves are much weaker. I went short at around 137085.

Ususally the big candles during a consolidations tell me what the next move will be. This time they gave me the wrong message.

I am trying to analyse and see any early signs that the market would go up. The only bull sign I see is the strong up move from the support (1.37031) at 18:23. But I thought it was over.

Can you comment please?

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