Price Action GC trading - futures io
futures io



Price Action GC trading


Discussion in Trading Journals

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one isaacsu with 9 posts (2 thanks)
    2. looks_two Balanar with 3 posts (2 thanks)
    3. looks_3 sands with 2 posts (0 thanks)
    4. looks_4 Beljevina with 2 posts (4 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one shanemcdonald28 with 6 thanks per post
    2. looks_two Big Mike with 3 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 Beljevina with 2 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 Balanar with 0.7 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 4,762 views
    2. thumb_up 19 thanks given
    3. group 12 followers
    1. forum 24 posts
    2. attach_file 7 attachments




Welcome to futures io: the largest futures trading community on the planet, with well over 125,000 members
  • Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
  • Quality education from leading professional traders
  • We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
  • We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

 
Search this Thread
 

Price Action GC trading

(login for full post details)
  #1 (permalink)
isaacsu
Melbourne Australia
 
 
Posts: 24 since Oct 2013
Thanks: 7 given, 9 received

My name is Isaac. I am a software developer in Australia. I've dabbled around with trading/investing as a curiosity for over 2 years now. I hope to be able to trade as a full-time job sometime in the not so distant future.

Here's is a rough timeline of my journey so far.

2011, I started out buying some mining shares on the ASX with a couple of thousand dollars in the account. Discovered that I was severely undercapitalized and the the underlaying would have to move a ridiculous amount for me to even break-even with brokerage.

In 2012, I started looking for ways to get in on price action without the account size. Obviously there was a greater chance of breaking even and making a profit, but also a greater chance of losing it all. At the time, the only other instrument I was aware of, and mildly attracted to were options.

It was super confusing at first, but I committed myself to learning all about the instrument (mind you, "all" at the time meant wrapping my head around the simplest concepts - writing/buying, call/put, intrinsic value/premium). I would keep an eye on the underlaying security, and simulate trade positions by buying either calls or puts.

There were a couple of boundaries that made it a relatively risk-limited learning experience - I never wrote options, only bought, which meant I always confronted my maximum exposure upfront. I spent most of the year doing that. Almost 6 months in, I was down around $900 which managed to make back and break-even within a couple of weeks after.

At that point, I took stock of what had happened so far - a few things dawned upon me:

1. I'd spent thousands in brokerage fees on that trip to Drawdown Valley and back to the surface.
2. Options in Australia are not very liquid, and hence the bid/ask spreads tend to be wide.
3. The combination of fees and wide spreads made it a rather expensive learning experience.

Early 2013, I discovered CFDs through one of the popular online CFD brokers that had an Australian presence. Opened an account with a couple hundred bucks on a credit card - no sweat. "No Commissions" was a dream come through for me. I thought "now I can trade like the big boys, in and out, long and short all day". I never made a profit, just a long drawn-out decline to $4.95 in the account. So I made a pact with myself - trade a demo account, recover the $300 and another $700 on top of that, and I'll start over with a $1000 account.

Never happened. Last I traded a CFD, which was less than a month ago, I was focused on two currency pairs - AUDUSD and USDJPY. The AUDUSD because I was in Australia, USDJPY because it seemed interesting.

Along the way, a few lessons I learned:

1. CFD brokers make money from the spread, and it is a significant spread.
2. I wasn't actually trading on the "open market", rather just against the broker.
3. Trading with the real $300 at the start made pain of loss and the euphoria of profit very real - feelings that I was later able to transfer on to when I traded demo.
4. Taken seriously and for real, trading demo/sim and is unbeatable value as far as cost per learning experience goes.

Supplimenting my trading experience was a steady diet of somewhat relevant literature like "Antifragile" by Nassim Taleb, Alexander Elder's "Come Into My Trading Room", "Misbehavior of Markets" by Mandelbrot, a couple of Turtle Trader books, One Good Trade by Mike Bellafiore, a blur of other stuff around indicators and patterns. Babypips.com was a huge resource where I learned a lot too.

Which brings us to today. I'm about a month into my discovery of futures, I stumbled upon futures.io (formerly BMT) less than a week ago, I'm about 3/4 way through Mark Douglas' "The Disciplined Trader". While I'm still a long way off my goal of consistantly profitable trading, I feel like I'm closer than ever.

So far, I've been play-trading on a demo futures account - no plan, no strategy, just single contract GC trades, and going on "feel" (fail) and "intuition" (double fail), noticing patterns, taking punts etc. I want to take it to the next level, so I'm going to try and journal my trades, and hopefully accelerate my learning.

Here's my plan, feel free to question me or give suggestions.

Instrument: GC
No particularly strong reason. If anyone has a suggestion on a good "beginner" instrument to learn to trade that can offer a good learning experiences, I'm all ears.

Approach: Technical + Price Action (are they the same?)
I think I'm more comfortable thinking, learning and reasoning in those terms.

Timeframe: 5min, 30min, 60min charts
Because it's generally a good idea to trade with context in mind?

Tools: I'd like to learn to trade with naked candlestick charts, key S/R levels and the DOM.

Like I said, this journal thing is me taking a next step in learning. I welcome all comments, advice and suggestions.

Thanks.

Reply With Quote

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on futures io?
need help writing easylanguage radarscreen weekly perfor …
EasyLanguage Programming
Needing harmonic patterns indicator
TradeStation
heatmap order flow +
NinjaTrader
How much do you know about Bitcoin?
Crypto Futures
options data for chart
NinjaTrader
 
Best Threads (Most Thanked)
in the last 7 days on futures io
I finally blew up an account
51 thanks
FIO Journal Challenge - April 2021 w/Jigsaw Trading
38 thanks
The Crude Dude Oil Trading System
36 thanks
The tiyfTradePlanFactory indicator
19 thanks
Spoo-nalysis ES e-mini futures S&P 500
16 thanks
 
(login for full post details)
  #3 (permalink)
isaacsu
Melbourne Australia
 
 
Posts: 24 since Oct 2013
Thanks: 7 given, 9 received




Missed a bounce off resistance @1353.7 when I left my terminal for a bit. Didn't try to chase it down. Proud of myself.

I got in on what seemed like a bounce off support @1350.1 with a 3 tick stop @1349.8
Price breached 1351.0 a couple of times, which would have been a tidy 9 ticks but I didn't know when to get out.

The one thing I've learned to ask myself is "would I go short if I weren't in a trade".

Is that a fair question to be asking when trying to determine an exit?

(I tried embedding the attachment in the post, but I can't till I've made 5 posts, oh well 3 more to go)

Correction: the picture should say "3 tick stop" instead of "3pt stop".

-2 ticks

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #4 (permalink)
isaacsu
Melbourne Australia
 
 
Posts: 24 since Oct 2013
Thanks: 7 given, 9 received



A quick one. Made a play for the bounce off a resistance level that was forming @1350.3

Entered with a 3 tick stoploss.

I figured I'd be happy with the price breaching bounce point @1349.6 from previous 2 bars.

Noticed heavy selling pressure @1350.3

+7 ticks

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #5 (permalink)
isaacsu
Melbourne Australia
 
 
Posts: 24 since Oct 2013
Thanks: 7 given, 9 received



Tried to get in on what I thought was a reversal on what I thought was an up-trend breakout.

Got in long @1350.8 with a stoploss @1350.5

Stopped out real soon when things went the opposite direction.

I'm starting to notice occasionally on the SuperDOM that the cumulative buys and sells sway from one end to another. For example, at one point there were 130 buy orders vs 37 sell orders.

I'm not sure what to make of it. Is it any indication of where the market wants the price to go next?

Also, is there something I missed in my assessment?

-3 ticks

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #6 (permalink)
isaacsu
Melbourne Australia
 
 
Posts: 24 since Oct 2013
Thanks: 7 given, 9 received



Spotted an ascending triangle forming with resistance @1349.5 and sporting higher lows.

I think I remembered the pattern wrongly, expecting a breakout upwards when it's meant to be a breakout DOWNWARDS.

I placed a buy stop 1 tick beyond the resistance level at @1349.6 with no stoploss. Left terminal for a bit. When I came back, pattern had "failed" according to my inaccurate understanding. It actually came about and I would have made a profit if I'd got it right.

Exited on pattern "failure" @1348.9 for a 6 tick loss.

Lesson: Must get the patterns right and double check before putting on a trade.

Idea for next trade, when ascending triangle emerges, place short stop beyond resistance with a tight stop for good profit when breakout occurs.

-6 ticks

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #7 (permalink)
 Balanar 
Germany
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: NTB / Continuum
Trading: FDAX and CL
 
Balanar's Avatar
 
Posts: 396 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 510 given, 1,663 received

Don't you think that your stop loss is too small?

I see that you have volume in your charts.

Are you working with volume?

As a beginner I would never recommend gold because of its volatility.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Balanar for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #8 (permalink)
 Balanar 
Germany
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: NTB / Continuum
Trading: FDAX and CL
 
Balanar's Avatar
 
Posts: 396 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 510 given, 1,663 received


isaacsu View Post


Spotted an ascending triangle forming with resistance @1349.5 and sporting higher lows.

I think I remembered the pattern wrongly, expecting a breakout upwards when it's meant to be a breakout DOWNWARDS.

I placed a buy stop 1 tick beyond the resistance level at @1349.6 with no stoploss. Left terminal for a bit. When I came back, pattern had "failed" according to my inaccurate understanding. It actually came about and I would have made a profit if I'd got it right.

Exited on pattern "failure" @1348.9 for a 6 tick loss.

Lesson: Must get the patterns right and double check before putting on a trade.

Idea for next trade, when ascending triangle emerges, place short stop beyond resistance with a tight stop for good profit when breakout occurs.

-6 ticks

What other traders see in your last trade / chart.

A breakout with a pullback and then a resumption of the downtrend.

There is no pattern fail, gold is a noisy market. You need to give gold some space.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Balanar for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #9 (permalink)
isaacsu
Melbourne Australia
 
 
Posts: 24 since Oct 2013
Thanks: 7 given, 9 received


Balanar View Post
Don't you think that your stop loss is too small?

I'm not sure if it's too small. The way I see it, I place my stops where I think my prediction has gone wrong.

What do you recommend?


Balanar View Post
Are you working with volume?

Thanks for pointing that out. No, I haven't been actively working with volume, it's more just a curiosity as to what's happening.


Balanar View Post
As a beginner I would never recommend gold because of its volatility.

@Balanar What would you recommend for a beginner?

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #10 (permalink)
 Balanar 
Germany
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: NTB / Continuum
Trading: FDAX and CL
 
Balanar's Avatar
 
Posts: 396 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 510 given, 1,663 received



isaacsu View Post
I'm not sure if it's too small. The way I see it, I place my stops where I think my prediction has gone wrong.

What do you recommend?

There is no right answer. It belongs on your trading style.

However, 3 tick stop loss is "crazy".

I think that you need 30 tick stop loss in gold...but that is my opinion.

Again, if you are a beginner I would not recommend trading gold.

There are other markets like ES with more liquidity.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #11 (permalink)
 jsengxx2 
Portugal, Viana do Castelo
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ninjatrader
Trading: 6e
 
Posts: 343 since Sep 2011

isaacsu,

Take a look at the following threads:



Al about price action. I think you have to use tick charts instead of min charts. The 5 min chart shows to much noise.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #12 (permalink)
steveo107
Frankfurt Germany
 
 
Posts: 10 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 1 given, 11 received

isaacsu,

I am a beginner futures trader also. I have chosen the ES to learn and practice my trading in SIM mode. I have found the teachings of PriceActionTradingSystems to be very helpful. They teach trading the ES using just one chart and no indicators except a 21 EMA and the support/resistance structure. It is best to trade with the trend and the setups all occur at key support for LONGs and key resistance for SHORTs. The PATs mentor does daily YouTube videos recapping the day. He is an expert trader and prepares the videos after he completes his trading day. This information should help you begin your learning process to day trade futures especially the ES.

Steve

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #13 (permalink)
HenryandSteen
copenhagen denmark
 
 
Posts: 24 since Oct 2013
Thanks: 2 given, 10 received

Good job on the journal

I will be following you

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #14 (permalink)
 Beljevina 
Toronto, Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, MT4
Broker: Amp/CQG, Citibank
Trading: CL, GC, 6E, ES, TF, EURUSD, GBPJPY, AUDUSD
 
Beljevina's Avatar
 
Posts: 350 since Sep 2010
Thanks: 392 given, 576 received

One of the most invaluable things I have found for gold trading is usage of 1) today's fibs after price has had a chance to develop 2) today's moves against yest's fibs, esp. the 23%, 78% +/-127%/161/200/261 and 3) peak volume identified on a 1min or other low TF chart. Extremely valuable also on a 15M chart.

(For the indis above, use Fat Tail's anaCurrentDayOHLV [I like v38 - something changed in versions after that], use anaFibsFromPriorDay and for PVP it should be this one: Links and Downloads Manager - NinjaTrader Support Forum I also use some GOM tools that among other items show buy/sell imbalances, but that's a separate conversation)

Gold's liquidity is among the worst of instruments; I can't imagine trading it with a 3 tick SL; now sure what profit target you are after, but the risk to reward will clobber you IMHO eventually, due to the generally poor liquidity and extreme manipulation of this instrument. That aside, once you can learn it's personality, it can be a goldmine.

Oh, and if you want to see the (poor) liquidity and what moves GC, you might be interested in vvhg's excellent vvAggregatedTimeandSales indi - just a suggestion for temporary viewing, since it is bound to majorly confuse someone starting out in trading, esp. in GC.

Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Beljevina for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #15 (permalink)
isaacsu
Melbourne Australia
 
 
Posts: 24 since Oct 2013
Thanks: 7 given, 9 received

A summary of advice received so far:

1. GC is a poor instrument for a beginner because:
- Poor liquidity x2
- High volatility
- Extreme manipulation

2. ES is a better learning instrument for beginners because:
- ES is more liquid
- There is a daily PATS video series that I can follow

3. Suggestions for trading GC:
- Tick charts > 5min charts because 5min charts shows too much noise
- Today's Fibs (after price has a chance to develop)
- Today's Move against yesterday's fibs
- Peak volume on <= 1min charts and 15min charts
- Learning GC's personality can be beneficial
- Running a 3 tick SL is crazy

Now some questions:

1. How does high volatility + poor liquidity (I assume they are two sides of the same coin) make an instrument a poor beginner's choice?

2. Would it be fair to say that high volatility is merely a character of the instrument that simply needs to be learned?

3. Are there any easier/harder times periods to trade GC or ES? I'm on the other side of the globe, so GC open outcry is ~2330 till 0430 for me.

4. I somewhat understand the mechanics behind time charts vs volume charts vs tick charts, but can someone please explain to me what is the thinking behind each of them? Do people have a preference for one over the other? Why?

5. With regards to trading with today's fibs after price has developed, when does the day start and end for GC? Also, what allowing the "price to develop" mean?

5. Can someone enlighten me with regards to trading with "peak volume identified"?

A final thought:

This may come across as extremely stupid, but when thinking about a beginner's instrument, I'm more concerned about looking for something that can provide the richest, broadest and most profitable learning experience.

Thanks everyone for your valuable thoughts so far. @Beljevina @jsengxx2 @Balanar

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #16 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
Site Administrator
Swing Trader
Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Trading: Futures & Crypto
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 50,087 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,548 given, 98,541 received

Watch this webinar:



Covers product selection based on volatility/range, account size, trader type/personality, stop sizes, more.

Mike

We're here to help -- just ask

For the best trading education, watch our webinars
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list

Follow us on Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook

Support our community as an Elite Member:
https://futures.io/elite/

Visit other sites? Please spread the word about your experience with our community!
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #17 (permalink)
 Beljevina 
Toronto, Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, MT4
Broker: Amp/CQG, Citibank
Trading: CL, GC, 6E, ES, TF, EURUSD, GBPJPY, AUDUSD
 
Beljevina's Avatar
 
Posts: 350 since Sep 2010
Thanks: 392 given, 576 received


isaacsu View Post
1. How does high volatility + poor liquidity (I assume they are two sides of the same coin) make an instrument a poor beginner's choice?

Beginners are usually undercapitalized. High volatility means quick moves that take out stops. Stops are wider. 3 ticks, or 30 ticks for that matter mean nothing to an instrument like GC, when it makes a moderate move. Undercapitalization means potential blow-up sooner than with a more fluid or non volatile instrument. Even if one has gobs of money to start with, the demoralization caused by the huge losses that GC can bring, can have psychological impact on one's trading.

There is no harm in watching, studying GC, but doing so in conjunction with say ES and 6E is something I might recommend. If nothing else, viewing their price action, and almost as important - interaction - is part of that time investment of viewing and studying price action that many many traders say is necessary, and, that there are no shortcuts.


isaacsu View Post
2. Would it be fair to say that high volatility is merely a character of the instrument that simply needs to be learned?

Hm. Yes, I guess. Volatility can come to all instruments. The key is to recognize when it is happening, and, ideally, IMO, understand what is driving it. GC has a rather schizophrenic personality: it can be a fear play, it can be an inflation play, it can be a safety play, it can be a correlation play. But, like most instruments, there isn't any guarantee of uniformity or consistency. I would not say it can be completely 'learned'; likely expectations can be 'learned', but, sometimes not trading it - either for lack of any movement or too much "she's gonna kill me movement and I should not risk it and thus stay out" are other behviours or actions that can be important to 'learn.'


isaacsu View Post
3. Are there any easier/harder times periods to trade GC or ES? I'm on the other side of the globe, so GC open outcry is ~2330 till 0430 for me.

I would not be able to define any easier or harder times to trade GC. It really depends on what the session (Asia, Europe, NY) sentiment and influencing factors are like, and, what influenced/moved it in the previous session(s), not to mention what S/R levels are in play. The current asia session that is underway, I see it just moved from a ~1350 low to ~1360, in <30min. That is on the higher side, for an Asia range, at least higher than what it has been. That's a $1000 range, a heavy number for a beginner, pretty much regardless of capitalization amount. There's an indi (another wonderful Fat Tails creation I believe) that will box for you each of the sessions (based on time ranges you define), so you can see how much it tends to move in those sessions.

The GC pit session ain't what it used to be. I personally don't ascribe much weight to it; yes, it happens to coincide with the NY timeframe, but there's no guarantee when or how much moves will be during that time IMO.


isaacsu View Post
4. I somewhat understand the mechanics behind time charts vs volume charts vs tick charts, but can someone please explain to me what is the thinking behind each of them? Do people have a preference for one over the other? Why?

I almost exclusively use time-based charts; I have a few tick charts in my workspace (for CL) but almost never check them. It's a personal preference. Others swear by range, tick charts, or other bar-style charts. I personally cant't stand them, but that's me. You're now getting into the nuances of how we each perceive what we see, and what we feel we can draw from those visuals. For chart differences, you should delve into some personal research.



isaacsu View Post
5. With regards to trading with today's fibs after price has developed, when does the day start and end for GC? Also, what allowing the "price to develop" mean?

The GC ETH (full day trading session) opens 6pm EST, and goes until 5:15 EST. You've already identified the RTH/pit hours. Thus, the day 'starts' at 6pm EST.

My reference to today's developing fibs is a reference to the 6pm EST start, and, say some hours into the session. It's now past 11pm EST, and I'd say price has 'developed'. Sometimes you get a healthy range with half that time. The variance can be huge. Interestingly, with the 1350-1360 range, the 50% or D-Mid point is at 1355, and, that's where price has now been for about 30 minutes. I'm a little surprised by the $10 range in this session. Often it's half that. Sure, sometimes more.



isaacsu View Post
5. Can someone enlighten me with regards to trading with "peak volume identified"?

Bear in mind, this is something that I personally ascribe a lot of value to. I don't mean to force it upon you or anyone, but, IMHO, it is quite valuable, for many instruments.

It is an incredibly basic indicator that draws a level where volume has peaked. Usually, this volume represents seller's or buyer's exhaustion, and, hence defines the top or bottom of a move, which can often then be followed by a retrace. It is often a key area where buyers and sellers battle it out, with one (temporarily?) giving up, and one (temporarily?) winning. As the line remains on the chart, it is amazing (IMO) to see how often it becomes a key level for price, later that session (on lower timeframe charts), but also in future sessions. PVP has similarities/overlap with POCs. The indicator I've listed here is incredibly simplistic and has flaws (ie., inability to catch some important volume peaks.)

I've included a chart of GC. Shown is a 1min chart, with an invisible 3min in the background. The blue/red arrowed line is VWAP, with the alternating grey areas being the indicator's standard deviation levels. (note how nicely it often poses the limit of a move). The yellow dashed line is the 1min PVP, the white is the resulting 3min chart's PVP; they frequently overlap, which is a good thing. The red/yellow lines are GOM VPOCs. The column that has 127.2 as the top value are fibs from the prior day's price range. Note how 50% caught the down move at about 3:45am EST; peak volume was found ~$2 higher, which is unusual. Note the white/yellow PVP lines that follow and where they appear and where price goes after that. Note 9:30 EST 38.2% of yest-range 'catches' price, as does the pivot point. The move up then is 'caught' by the yesterday high; buying ensues, and 127.2% stops buying about 1361; note R1. The move down to 1351 happens to be the 23.6% of the prev-day - it is a key level, that sees multiple holds. Note the 1354 overlapped PVP and how price respects it. And, I've not included any trendlines or channel play on this chart. (mostly, because this is actually one of my CL charts, and I just changed the instrument; I use a different type of GC chart with these indicators on them, in conjunction with a variety of GOM indicators.)

(I've also included a 15m GC chart. Just threw it in because I thought the black-dashed PVP levels were pretty useful not only today, but on previous days too. Admittedly, it is a learned behaviour combined with price action interpretation, on reading it and putting it to use, properly.)

Again, I don't mean to say that this is the way to do it. It is (a portion) of what works well for me. It is not a KISS approach, but, what can work for me, will see open repulsion by others. So be it. That's pretty much why there are those very true stories of a uber-successful trader giving his system to 10 people, which is misinterpreted along with instructions not being followed, and you'll have 8 of the traders still lose money.


isaacsu View Post
A final thought:

This may come across as extremely stupid, but when thinking about a beginner's instrument, I'm more concerned about looking for something that can provide the richest, broadest and most profitable learning experience.

Thanks everyone for your valuable thoughts so far.

You'll get different answers from different people. Many will steadfastly recommend ES; there are those that don't feel that way. But, since liquidity is decent (during the cash session), it is not a bad start. In fact, for a beginner, I'd say following 5 of the top major instruments, and seeing how they relate to each other, are key learnings to attain; I guess I am referencing intermarket analysis, specific to price action. The asia session is least useful to learn from IMO, becasuse there just isn't any volume almost anywhere. London session is better, but instrument dependent. But again, this is my approach, and, regardless of success or lack of for one person, it can be completely opposite and completely wrong for someone else. As a beginning trader, you will have to discover what works for you.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	gold 1min 3 min.png
Views:	106
Size:	77.6 KB
ID:	127025   Click image for larger version

Name:	15min gc.png
Views:	128
Size:	195.5 KB
ID:	127026  
Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to Beljevina for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #18 (permalink)
isaacsu
Melbourne Australia
 
 
Posts: 24 since Oct 2013
Thanks: 7 given, 9 received

So I've watched the webinar as suggested by @, and wrote this up mostly before reading@'s priceless post. Thank you.

Here are some of my takeaways.

1. As a beginner, it is important to start trading live as soon as possible. Sim/Demo, while useful, is severely limited in the lessons and experiences that it offers.

2. Because learning by trading live is so crucial, a clearer set of requirements for what makes an ideal beginner's instrument emerges. Mostly it revolves around allowing the learner to experience the action while keeping the cost of learning low.

Some important requirements for a beginner's instrument:
- It should allow the learner to put on minimal trade sizes (micro lot Forex are the suggested ideal)
- It should have a reasonably safe daily trading range (dollar value of range per unit position)

These characteristics allow the learner to put on minimal sizes with realistic stops (yes, 3 points is crazy) in order to learn to ride good key level price movements (50+ ticks) instead of bobbing about in the noise (5-7 ticks).

Other answers from the webinar to some of my questions:

1. What's a good time to trade?
There's always something moving somewhere around the world. So, just pick a time and pick a market that is giving reasonable movement.

2. Time/Range/Tick charts?
For a beginner, it's better to stay away from the super short term charts (noisy), and learn to trade 15/30/60min+ for proper S/R price movements. Time charts seem to be favoured because range/tick charts tend to smooth out things out and obscure vital price action information (candlestick formations).

So it is safe to say, my very first beginner's learning plan to SIM trade GC on short timeframes with price action is a dud.

I will formulate a new plan and start again in a new thread.

Some questions to wrap this leg of my journey up:

1. For now I'm leaning towards micro lot sized forex. I know the BigMike suggests EURUSD as a personal favourite. Because I'm based in Australia, does it give me an advantage to trade something like AUDUSD because I'm closer to the fundamental action?

2. I noticed that with forex, I don't get to see the depth of market. Should I be concerned with learning to read the DOM at this stage, or is it something I can afford to pick up later?

Thank you, again, for all the help and wisdom!

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #19 (permalink)
isaacsu
Melbourne Australia
 
 
Posts: 24 since Oct 2013
Thanks: 7 given, 9 received

I've started afresh trading micro-lots of EURUSD Spot FX live here:


Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to isaacsu for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #20 (permalink)
shanemcdonald28
new york
 
 
Posts: 355 since Mar 2012
Thanks: 665 given, 580 received


isaacsu View Post
So I've watched the webinar as suggested by @, and wrote this up mostly before reading@'s priceless post. Thank you.

Here are some of my takeaways.

1. As a beginner, it is important to start trading live as soon as possible. Sim/Demo, while useful, is severely limited in the lessons and experiences that it offers.

2. Because learning by trading live is so crucial, a clearer set of requirements for what makes an ideal beginner's instrument emerges. Mostly it revolves around allowing the learner to experience the action while keeping the cost of learning low.

Some important requirements for a beginner's instrument:
- It should allow the learner to put on minimal trade sizes (micro lot Forex are the suggested ideal)
- It should have a reasonably safe daily trading range (dollar value of range per unit position)

These characteristics allow the learner to put on minimal sizes with realistic stops (yes, 3 points is crazy) in order to learn to ride good key level price movements (50+ ticks) instead of bobbing about in the noise (5-7 ticks).

Other answers from the webinar to some of my questions:

1. What's a good time to trade?
There's always something moving somewhere around the world. So, just pick a time and pick a market that is giving reasonable movement.

2. Time/Range/Tick charts?
For a beginner, it's better to stay away from the super short term charts (noisy), and learn to trade 15/30/60min+ for proper S/R price movements. Time charts seem to be favoured because range/tick charts tend to smooth out things out and obscure vital price action information (candlestick formations).

So it is safe to say, my very first beginner's learning plan to SIM trade GC on short timeframes with price action is a dud.

I will formulate a new plan and start again in a new thread.

Some questions to wrap this leg of my journey up:

1. For now I'm leaning towards micro lot sized forex. I know the BigMike suggests EURUSD as a personal favourite. Because I'm based in Australia, does it give me an advantage to trade something like AUDUSD because I'm closer to the fundamental action?

2. I noticed that with forex, I don't get to see the depth of market. Should I be concerned with learning to read the DOM at this stage, or is it something I can afford to pick up later?

Thank you, again, for all the help and wisdom!


The Aussie dollar is perfect for you. I consider it the China Dollar and trade the futures and not forex pairs. 6A

Gold is better in your time and I think it trades like a currency in the Asia and London sessions. The volatility shows up in the NY session. That's when millions of options are traded on gold in the GDX and GLD etf's. Yesterday I saw over 15 million shares of GDX traded. Hows that for liquidity. The options market does affect the GC futures and vice versa.
Someone who went short long term yesterday on GDX options used the overnight futures market to hedge their position.
The options market closes overnight , so the futures provide the hedge positions.

The Ma6 is micro aussie future and is perfect for learning on. I test many of my automated strategies on the MA6 to get live results when testing and developing strategies. The aussie is the only currency I trade. I do consider Gold to be a currency and it trends beautifully. But I condider a 50 tick stop loss to be a tight stop with gold. 100 ticks gives it room to move.

This is just my opinion.

I split my time between GC and crude oil.

Reply With Quote
The following 6 users say Thank You to shanemcdonald28 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #21 (permalink)
 sands 
London + UK
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Proprietary Analytics
Broker: Multiple broker + Multiple feed
Trading: Currently European and US equities
 
sands's Avatar
 
Posts: 443 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 256 given, 229 received


isaacsu View Post
My name is Isaac. I am a software developer in Australia. I've dabbled around with trading/investing as a curiosity for over 2 years now. I hope to be able to trade as a full-time job sometime in the not so distant future.

Here's is a rough timeline of my journey so far.

2011, I started out buying some mining shares on the ASX with a couple of thousand dollars in the account. Discovered that I was severely undercapitalized and the the underlaying would have to move a ridiculous amount for me to even break-even with brokerage.

In 2012, I started looking for ways to get in on price action without the account size. Obviously there was a greater chance of breaking even and making a profit, but also a greater chance of losing it all. At the time, the only other instrument I was aware of, and mildly attracted to were options.

It was super confusing at first, but I committed myself to learning all about the instrument (mind you, "all" at the time meant wrapping my head around the simplest concepts - writing/buying, call/put, intrinsic value/premium). I would keep an eye on the underlaying security, and simulate trade positions by buying either calls or puts.

There were a couple of boundaries that made it a relatively risk-limited learning experience - I never wrote options, only bought, which meant I always confronted my maximum exposure upfront. I spent most of the year doing that. Almost 6 months in, I was down around $900 which managed to make back and break-even within a couple of weeks after.

At that point, I took stock of what had happened so far - a few things dawned upon me:

1. I'd spent thousands in brokerage fees on that trip to Drawdown Valley and back to the surface.
2. Options in Australia are not very liquid, and hence the bid/ask spreads tend to be wide.
3. The combination of fees and wide spreads made it a rather expensive learning experience.

Early 2013, I discovered CFDs through one of the popular online CFD brokers that had an Australian presence. Opened an account with a couple hundred bucks on a credit card - no sweat. "No Commissions" was a dream come through for me. I thought "now I can trade like the big boys, in and out, long and short all day". I never made a profit, just a long drawn-out decline to $4.95 in the account. So I made a pact with myself - trade a demo account, recover the $300 and another $700 on top of that, and I'll start over with a $1000 account.

Never happened. Last I traded a CFD, which was less than a month ago, I was focused on two currency pairs - AUDUSD and USDJPY. The AUDUSD because I was in Australia, USDJPY because it seemed interesting.

Along the way, a few lessons I learned:

1. CFD brokers make money from the spread, and it is a significant spread.
2. I wasn't actually trading on the "open market", rather just against the broker.
3. Trading with the real $300 at the start made pain of loss and the euphoria of profit very real - feelings that I was later able to transfer on to when I traded demo.
4. Taken seriously and for real, trading demo/sim and is unbeatable value as far as cost per learning experience goes.

Supplimenting my trading experience was a steady diet of somewhat relevant literature like "Antifragile" by Nassim Taleb, Alexander Elder's "Come Into My Trading Room", "Misbehavior of Markets" by Mandelbrot, a couple of Turtle Trader books, One Good Trade by Mike Bellafiore, a blur of other stuff around indicators and patterns. Babypips.com was a huge resource where I learned a lot too.

Which brings us to today. I'm about a month into my discovery of futures, I stumbled upon futures.io (formerly BMT) less than a week ago, I'm about 3/4 way through Mark Douglas' "The Disciplined Trader". While I'm still a long way off my goal of consistantly profitable trading, I feel like I'm closer than ever.

So far, I've been play-trading on a demo futures account - no plan, no strategy, just single contract GC trades, and going on "feel" (fail) and "intuition" (double fail), noticing patterns, taking punts etc. I want to take it to the next level, so I'm going to try and journal my trades, and hopefully accelerate my learning.

Here's my plan, feel free to question me or give suggestions.

Instrument: GC
No particularly strong reason. If anyone has a suggestion on a good "beginner" instrument to learn to trade that can offer a good learning experiences, I'm all ears.

Approach: Technical + Price Action (are they the same?)
I think I'm more comfortable thinking, learning and reasoning in those terms.

Timeframe: 5min, 30min, 60min charts
Because it's generally a good idea to trade with context in mind?

Tools: I'd like to learn to trade with naked candlestick charts, key S/R levels and the DOM.

Like I said, this journal thing is me taking a next step in learning. I welcome all comments, advice and suggestions.

Thanks.


Hi first thing you need before anything is a trading plan and to pick a clearly defined strategy to follow and stick to. This will include the set ups you're looking for and the conditions for entry and exit. Then go into journaling your success in sticking to your plan. There are some good examples on the forum have a browse.

Thanks

Sand.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #22 (permalink)
 sands 
London + UK
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Proprietary Analytics
Broker: Multiple broker + Multiple feed
Trading: Currently European and US equities
 
sands's Avatar
 
Posts: 443 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 256 given, 229 received

Just to be clear the more specific the better, when you search look for the topic of mechanical trading. I hope this helps you some.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #23 (permalink)
 tturner86 
Portland, Oregon
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: F-16CM-50
Trading: GBU-39
 
tturner86's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,172 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 10,456 given, 12,608 received

I would suggest M6E or M6A, micro currencies where you can trade live but trade really small. Each tick is $1-$1.25 and the margins are $200-$300.

I see you are looking at price action so good start. I suggest looking into money/risk management and trader psychology to learn more about trading.

I would trade demo for a few months to get the ins and outs of your trading method down, learn how the platform works, and work on a daily routine of following a trading plan. Then I would look to trade the micros live.

Also always use money that you can afford to lose and its loss will not affect your life. I call it burn money, money you could light on fire on your desk and it not matter.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #24 (permalink)
steveo107
Frankfurt Germany
 
 
Posts: 10 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 1 given, 11 received

Hi Isaac,

I started my futures price action day trading learning process on the ES - the most liquid market thus no slippage with your orders. I recommend a 2000 tick chart, only one chart to trade the ES. I use only one indicator, 21 EMA.

The daily task is to construct the support/resistance (S/R) structure based on the price action. I actively adjust the S/R structure accordingly on a "bar-by-bar" basis. There are 5 market conditions that that I identify: 1) UP CHANNEL; 2) DOWN CHANNEL; 3) TRADEABLE TRADING RANGE - horizontal channel; 4) CONGESTION - very narrow, non-tradeable trading range; and 5) TREND LINE BREAK. Each of these conditions have their set of rules that are applied to trade these conditions. As a start, I trade 2 contracts and employ 2 exits. The first exit for the ES is fixed at 4 ticks. The second exit is classified as a runner. The protective stop is place 2 ticks below what is termed "the signal bar". Most of the time the signal bar is the prior pivot level. I call this strategy, "Scalping with runner". The runner does not always occur. As soon as I get filled on the first exit, I move the protective stop to break even - roughly 50% of the time the runner gets stopped out. If the runner is established, then the exit target will be some S/R level identified in the S/R structure.

Price action is a simple methodology, but not so simple that it can be explained in this forum. If this sounds interesting, then you must learn from the expert, Mack, at: priceactiontradingsystem.com

Hope this helps,

Steve

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #25 (permalink)
Northernlimit
Toronto Canada
 
 
Posts: 52 since Jan 2017
Thanks: 4 given, 105 received

1. I have been trading gold for many years and I agree it's a tough contract for a beginner. It's a large contract and can move sharply due to mine producer hedging, plus it trades like a currency, so it can trade off of other currencies. ES and Crude are also large, I would recommend YM (mini-Dow), it has a $5 tick and is of course very liquid.

2. Continue with simulation until you get it right and you have a good plan. There is no point in wasting money and feeling emotional pain when you don't need to. Yes, it will be different once you start, but you to have the basics.

3. As for your trading I see problems.
Stops: The tight stop loss for gold was incorrect and not incorrect. Yes, it was too close, but when dealing with a volatile market you might want it close, but then you will have to plan for multiple re-entry. Psychologically this is difficult for some to do. The correct stop is just beyond the range of the recent consolidation or top or bottom. In other words, the stop should be at the point when you say "when has the market turned against me", independent of your entry point.
Entry: The real problem was your entry. Ideally you want to enter when there is a top or bottom. The short trade that you didn't chase, is the one you want. It was good discipline not to chase, but that doesn't mean you have to take another trade to make up for it. It's not the trades you miss that count, but the ones you enter...the great thing about trading is there is always another opportunity. In this case, you don't want to enter on a pull-back into the middle of a range unless there is a clear definitive trend, and I see no trend here just a price range, so this was a typical beginner error to me, although others may disagree.

Good luck and keep going!

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Northernlimit for this post:


futures io Trading Community Trading Journals > Price Action GC trading


Last Updated on February 13, 2017


Upcoming Webinars and Events
 

NinjaTrader Indicator Challenge!

Ongoing

HIRO Indicator by Spotgamma in Bookmap w/Brent Kochuba @ SpotGamma

Elite only

NEW BlackBird Features + FOREX Support w/Jeremy Tang @ SharkIndicators

Elite only
     



Copyright © 2021 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada), info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts