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It ain’t called catching, its called fishing


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Updated October 26th 2016 by suko
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It ainít called catching, its called fishing

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  #161 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Kyoto, Japan
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TW TOS LiveVol
Broker: TD, TW, IB, Saxo
Trading: VXX, VIX, SPY
 
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QOTD: "Think of you and your intuition as friends, and your heart as a tag along younger brother. You don't like your heart but can't get rid of him, as he's family.

Everytime your heart plays up, and throws a tantrum, instead of getting distracted, you just ignore him, and follow your intuition. Your heart will eventually feel, silly and alienated and frantically run to catch up with you both.

This really puts in to frame that listening to and following emotion is like listening to a child."

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  #162 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Kyoto, Japan
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TW TOS LiveVol
Broker: TD, TW, IB, Saxo
Trading: VXX, VIX, SPY
 
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Points on the board

Closed out my EDV position at 113.83, for a 2.5% gain. The rules dictate that I hold until the end of the month, but I decided, after a lot of deliberation, to to ahead and break the rules and book the win now. Part of my reasoning is that I just don't want to hold this through the FED.

Objectively speaking, in terms of PL, this is the best winner I have ever had. Woohoo!

I am going to focus on the fact of the win. I can do this!

Trading results in a stew of pleasant and unpleasant emotions. I get blown back and forth by emotions all day. The only thing I have to hold onto is the rules.

(I have also decided that I am going to have to modify my trend trading rules somewhat, and modify the trading plan. My policy is that it's alright to revise/amend the rules, as long as it's written down.)

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  #163 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Kyoto, Japan
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TW TOS LiveVol
Broker: TD, TW, IB, Saxo
Trading: VXX, VIX, SPY
 
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Posts: 1,283 since Oct 2013
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Trades for November:

EDV 11/02/14 buy 114.14 still holding for December
MDY 11/02/14 258.3 stopped out 259.89
JPNL 11/03/14 50.14 still holding --a bad trade, and I think I will close it, because the position is not behaving the way it should be.

Over the past month I have picked up a lot more knowledge about volatility products, and I now believe I've got an edge, so I am going to take a position in ZIV.

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  #164 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Kyoto, Japan
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TW TOS LiveVol
Broker: TD, TW, IB, Saxo
Trading: VXX, VIX, SPY
 
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Posts: 1,283 since Oct 2013
Thanks: 816 given, 1,320 received

JPNL 11/03/14 50.14 stopped out 42.4.

Bad trade for a number of reasons, but I think the key point is that the stock did not do what I was expecting it to. Somehow it became decoupled from the index it is supposed to be tracking. Something broken there. I think this is another case of a trade that did not do what it was supposed to do and should have been closed right away when that became apparent, instead of waiting.


Working on my short volatility ETF strategies:

XIV 12/15/14 32.19

My first paper trade via TOS (account finally funded). Rationale is that the 1) VRP indicator is positive. 2) The VIX term structure was flat. Basic strategy here is to range trade XIV with short-term positions on a timeframe of days or weeks and collect weekly roll yield.

I need to learn more about futures, since this is all based on VIX futures.

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  #165 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Kyoto, Japan
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Broker: TD, TW, IB, Saxo
Trading: VXX, VIX, SPY
 
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Posts: 1,283 since Oct 2013
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Doing lots and lots of study of volatility products. Starting to reference option greeks to enhance kitchen arguments.

Drilling down into volatility on the the TT "Learn" tab, which has a number of their best educational segments organized by topic:

https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/learn/volatility-products?locale=en-US

XIV 12/15/14 long 32.19 closed at 30.64 at 5% loss as VIX spikes up again

let's try again, term structure is flattened out again & VRP is still positive

XIV 12/18/14 long 30.84 holding at 31.99

A nice little round trip. Neither of these trades felt like high probability. I will keep playing with it.

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  #166 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Kyoto, Japan
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Broker: TD, TW, IB, Saxo
Trading: VXX, VIX, SPY
 
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Posts: 1,283 since Oct 2013
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XIV 12/18/14 long 30.84 holding at 33.05, other indicator turned positive.
I am going to try a small live trade in XIV next.

Otherwise, my EDV rotation play stopped out at 24.81
This turns out to be the best trade I have ever made, in PL terms. Woohoo.
Who'd a thunk it, 20-year Treasuries?

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  #167 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Kyoto, Japan
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TW TOS LiveVol
Broker: TD, TW, IB, Saxo
Trading: VXX, VIX, SPY
 
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Posts: 1,283 since Oct 2013
Thanks: 816 given, 1,320 received

This nifty graphic sums up my state of mind at the moment:


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  #168 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Kyoto, Japan
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TW TOS LiveVol
Broker: TD, TW, IB, Saxo
Trading: VXX, VIX, SPY
 
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Posts: 1,283 since Oct 2013
Thanks: 816 given, 1,320 received

2015 Plan

Taking advantage of the New Year's extended holiday here in Japan to evaluate my 2014 trading.

Bad:
-- held onto losing FOMO position too long
-- set stop too wide on ILF position
-- did another FOMO trade
-- swapped in and out of my core positions instead of sticking to plan

Good
-- identified my primary weakness as being FOMO
-- actually started saying "NO" to the FOMO voice in my head
-- decided to move to dollars based trading platform, from yen, made out big on FOREX
-- properly applied my hedges, for the most part
-- practiced pretty good discipline as for following rules and plan
-- kept writing this journal, and implemented a log in Excel
-- incorporated as a business, set up bookkeeping, got corp trading account
-- stuck to my core strategy without losing faith and switching (although very tempted)

Outcome, in PL terms, I was up about 14%, thanks to JPY FOREX. I do not take that to mean that the position trading was good, just that I got lucky, and I'm going to die another day.

I am reworking my trading plan based on what I have learned. I need to tighten up the risk management parameters. Up until now, I have been willing to accept a 20% drawdown for the year. Maybe later, I can come back to that, but for right now I need to focus on cutting the losses while following the rules.

One idea I am toying with is implementing the 3% rule I saw Hedge Fund Wizards; if you lose 3% on starting capital for the year you go to half positions, lose another 3% and you are sidelined.

Strategywise, I am going to break the portfolio down into three main parts +
A -- main rotation strategy of macro index ETFs 85%
B -- volatility strategy with VIX-based ETFs 10%
C -- educational portfolio with options, mainly credit spreads to learn how to trade volatility products with options 5%
D -- FOREX tiny allocation so I can learn day trading with FOREX and because we have a local FOREX traders club that I want to join for the human contact (lotta FOREX traders in Japan) 1%

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  #169 (permalink)
West Java
 
 
Posts: 145 since Apr 2014
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Congrats ... great performance.

suko View Post
JPY ...

Just curious, do you take multiple positions on that trade or just a single position ?

suko View Post
I do not take that to mean that the position trading was good, just that I got lucky, and I'm going to die another day.

well, maybe not, if we can catch another CB Divergence ...

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  #170 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Kyoto, Japan
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TW TOS LiveVol
Broker: TD, TW, IB, Saxo
Trading: VXX, VIX, SPY
 
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Posts: 1,283 since Oct 2013
Thanks: 816 given, 1,320 received



Thxo View Post
Just curious, do you take multiple positions on that trade or just a single position ?

I am not a FOREX trader, but my bank tells me that since I have a FOREX account I am one. That was the first big lesson of 2014, that I am a FOREX trader, whether I like it or not.

So, as for JPY, that trade was just a single round trip into and out of yen.

Incidentally, although I am short yen as a strategic, conviction based position, I cannot see myself day or swing trading JPY at this point. I think you place yourself at a lot of risk of very sharp gaps due to BOJ jawboning.

So, as for my tiny FOREX educational account, for 2015 I want to learn to trade USD/EUR, and maybe get a robot running. And I intend to learn all the Japanese FOREX trading lingo so I can hangout with the local traders. I love talking trading.

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