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ES Predictive Trading


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ES Predictive Trading

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  #1 (permalink)
 ab456 
New Delhi, India
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: SierraChart NinjaTrader,
Trading: ES,Stocks, Futures
 
Posts: 165 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 733 given, 102 received

Hello All

This is my second journal here, I have been trading other futures markets for few years now (not successful until few months ago) and now want to move to ES for it's liquidity and more predictable moves.

My method took some time to develop but overall it's simple (not easy) and involves forecasting market high or low and then monitoring order flow to take positions. So my trades would look like - 10.10 AM Probable Market High and 10.11 Entered Short at X. In case the probable market high is accepted by participants (MP concept), I would try to enter few ticks (depending on orderflow) above the forecast high. The same applies to short positions. Overall, there would be more reversal trades than breakout trades (ratio of 8 to 2)

The objective of the journal is to

1. To track my progress so that I have full confidence when abandoning my current market and switching to ES full time.

2. Get inputs on other traders on execution (especially scratching trades) when it comes to trading larger trade sizes.

I am naming the thread 'ES Predictive Trading' for lack of a better phrase, ES 'Forecasting' Trading didn't seem right.

Cheers

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  #3 (permalink)
 ab456 
New Delhi, India
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: SierraChart NinjaTrader,
Trading: ES,Stocks, Futures
 
Posts: 165 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 733 given, 102 received


Here is how I am going to update the thread from here on, I will post the forecasts in the chatbox and then update the charts here with the execution. Posting during live trade is simply not possible especially on such shorter timeframes. Also, I am trading a divergence method which is longer term, so posting the entire trade list would not be consistent with the thread title.

Yesterday, two trades called (there were three signals overall).

Quoting 
10-24-13 10:06 AM ab456 : Probable major bottom here




Quoting 
10-24-13 10:28 AM ab456 : another short term bottom here


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  #4 (permalink)
 EdgeExecution 
San Francisco , USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TOS, NinjaTrader
Trading: CL, 6E, GC, ES
 
Posts: 66 since Nov 2013
Thanks: 101 given, 116 received

Hi ab456,

your 'ES Predictive Trading' is interesting concept .

I take some trades based on similar concept. One useful exercise that helped me in this method of trading is establishing 'Basis for Daily Bias'. Daily Bias will give more information what are the surrounding price levels, momentum for Reversal etc.. which will strengthen the 'Trade Entry Point' based of 'your forcasted High/Low' .

Even my observation with 'Trading with foretasted High/Lows' favors 'Reversal/Fading Trades' and close to your observation.
Overall, there would be more reversal trades than breakout trades (ratio of 8 to 2)

Here is one good post by @FatTails how to arrive at DailyBias.
Elements of Daily Bias


I am not saying you should use @FatTails one, Some other SET of charts based your liking Indicators. Having this kind of 'SET of Daily Bias charts' DOCUMENTED and posted over period of time will IMPROVE your way of thinking Daily Bias and result in Good Entry points STILL using your 'forecasted High/Low '

I mainly trade Crude OIL futures, my Daily bias come from 'Fundamental Factors' FIRST, then some chart Setups.
Here is my recent post on CL with Daily Bias


Hope this input helps.


ab456 View Post
Hello All

it's simple (not easy) and involves forecasting market high or low and then monitoring order flow to take positions.

So my trades would look like - 10.10 AM Probable Market High and 10.11 Entered Short at X.

In case the probable market high is accepted by participants (MP concept), I would try to enter few ticks (depending on orderflow) above the forecast high. The same applies to short positions.

Overall, there would be more reversal trades than breakout trades (ratio of 8 to 2)
Cheers


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  #5 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
 
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congrats on starting your journal

I also work on predictive ES trading.
I might mean something different than you though.
I attempt to estimate the HOD, LOD, Range, midpt, Direction of the day, etc. which I have expanded to other things such as what is the first move (price time and direction) and so on.

From your posts I gather you are looking for some conditions that set out reversal and then when you see that posting the time in the chatbox?

In any case good luck with your endeavour and I look for to hearing of your progress.

..........
peace, love and joy to you
.........
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  #6 (permalink)
 ab456 
New Delhi, India
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: SierraChart NinjaTrader,
Trading: ES,Stocks, Futures
 
Posts: 165 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 733 given, 102 received

This is bad I totally forgot that I had a running journal

I run Microsoft OneNote all day, taking screenshots, annotating charts and then finally updating my excel sheet with detailed stats. All this kind of saps all my energy for the day and blanks me out till the next open

I will try to be more attentive to the thread from this week on

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  #7 (permalink)
 ny1trader 
Brooklyn+NY
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninja, e signal
Broker: Crossland/ CQG/Ninja/e Signal
Trading: ES
 
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lets see what the ES can do if it can trade 1771.00 if not I would say down again from here.

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  #8 (permalink)
 ab456 
New Delhi, India
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: SierraChart NinjaTrader,
Trading: ES,Stocks, Futures
 
Posts: 165 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 733 given, 102 received


ny1trader View Post
lets see what the ES can do if it can trade 1771.00 if not I would say down again from here.

That's a projection trading with large degrees of error (adverse excursion), key to trading based on forecasts is to be specific with a pattern that has an edge (should beat a randomness test significantly) and have very small margins of error (both in terms of time and price).

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  #9 (permalink)
 ny1trader 
Brooklyn+NY
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninja, e signal
Broker: Crossland/ CQG/Ninja/e Signal
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 4 since Nov 2013
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ok, your risk is new high your target is minimum 1755. can I get more specific than that?

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  #10 (permalink)
 ny1trader 
Brooklyn+NY
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninja, e signal
Broker: Crossland/ CQG/Ninja/e Signal
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 4 since Nov 2013
Thanks: 2 given, 4 received


I finally got out of this trade at 1755. I thought I would get another sell at 1771 to add to the 16675 sell; but that never materialized and now it looks like we want to make a new high. I suspect a pullback before we do with 2 hours left to the close maybe 176600 but that is FOR TODAY ONLY. If nothing else happens tomorrow will be an upside biased day.

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