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OKshunal Journal

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  #101 (permalink)
Bakersfield, CA USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: Bonds, YM
 
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Posts: 271 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 255 given, 145 received

I only had a few hours this morning so tried only short term trades.

Gold trades.....net loss (60) 3 trades. two losers and on winner.

Crude Oil trades....gain 1150
5 single trades. All winners. Traded initially with Stop for entry. Then sold on retracements. That is harder for me emotionally but worked out great.
I am back above my September starting balance (barely).

The problem with trading is one needs to be right twice!
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Can you help answer these questions
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TradeStation
 
 
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  #102 (permalink)
Bakersfield, CA USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: Bonds, YM
 
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Posts: 271 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 255 given, 145 received

*************************************************************************

Today I did try my NFP trade in the bonds but the stop entry did not trigger.

*************************************************************************

I have been working on a purely mechanical system and am ready to test in real time simulated trades. I have two variations both trading the Euro attempting to trade when the market is over extended. They are both similar so I probably would not trade both but I am for this test.

THESE TEST RESULTS ARE SIMULATED but in real time. Entries are computer generated. I am not completely satisfied with my exits and may manage them in addition to auto exits.

Case MM2 3 trades, 2 short, 1 long, all winners for 212.50 Before commissions. ( I thought i had commissions included but alas, I do not.)

Case MM3 5 trades, 3 long (winners) 2 short (1 win 1 loss). Gross Profit 712.5, Gross loss 25. 687.50 Net BC. I made one mistake: I had an exit on Close and tried to sell to close at one tick gain and ended up short one contract. I closed for a 1 tick loss that will show up as a trade on July 3.



I am confused about the first trade as it is near the price based on the over-bought condition but it shows several bars after that price occurred.

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  #103 (permalink)
Bakersfield, CA USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: Bonds, YM
 
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Posts: 271 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 255 given, 145 received


Besides the one pip loss, MM3 sold for 6 pips loss, total of 87.50.

Big drop on the last 15 minute bar in the 6E.

The problem with trading is one needs to be right twice!
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  #104 (permalink)
Bakersfield, CA USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: Bonds, YM
 
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Posts: 271 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 255 given, 145 received

7/5/15
Both MM2 and MM3 triggered on a reverse after the large drop on the opening bars (15 minute). MM2 bought at 1.1029 /sold at 1.1054 made $312.50 and MM3 bought 1.1028 /sold 1.1056made $350.

M3 bought again at 1.1043 and sold at 1.1065 for a additional $275


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  #105 (permalink)
Bakersfield, CA USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: Bonds, YM
 
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Posts: 271 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 255 given, 145 received

MM2 had a couple of losses to net (387) BC.



MM3 continues positive at 725 BC






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  #106 (permalink)
Bakersfield, CA USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: Bonds, YM
 
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Posts: 271 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 255 given, 145 received

MM2 Net PnL ($387.5)

7/8 night session Long 1 6E 09-15 @1.1083
covered @ 1.1088
$62.5

Short 1 6E 09-15 @1.1114
covered @ 1.1078
$450
7/9 Short 1 6E 09-15 @1.1059
1.1052
$87.5


Net PnL $150





There were no trades in system MM3 so it remains Net PnL $706.25

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  #107 (permalink)
Bakersfield, CA USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: Bonds, YM
 
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Posts: 271 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 255 given, 145 received

So I had to change MM3 exit. Both systems are similar though their respective entries and exits are slightly different. I was trying to trail the stop on MM3 after a minimum number of bars and a minimum profit. However, my calculation was off and I essentially had no stop on those two conditions. It definitely had not adversely impacted the system yet and I don't believe it resulted in more favorable conditions, either. Therefore, I am continues my simulation.

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  #108 (permalink)
Bakersfield, CA USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: Bonds, YM
 
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Posts: 271 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 255 given, 145 received

3 trades on MM2 (6E 09-15)
Short @1.1131
Cover @1.1114
17 pips

Long @ 1.1134
Cover@ 1.1166
32 pips

Short @1.1172
Cover @1.1196
(24) pips


Net PnL for the day $306.26 BC so about $290



4 trades on MM3
Short@1.1127
Cover@1.1091
36 pips

Long@1.1114
Cover@1.1148
34

short@1.1171
Cover@1.1178
( 7 )

Short@a.1154
Cover@1.1169
(15)
Net PnL today $600 BC so about $580 net

Note: there was an 18.75 mistake I made trading a 6B 09-15 in this account earlier. It was not part of this system but it is a mistake I made trading this system when I tried exit manually.



These results I find very interesting. The are very similar and trade the same instrument but MM2 has a high winning percentage (75%) with a 1.36 profit factor.

System MM3 has just over a 50% winning ratio but the losses are smaller and therefore yeilds a profit factor of 2.21 after about 2 weeks.

The problem with trading is one needs to be right twice!
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  #109 (permalink)
Bakersfield, CA USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: Bonds, YM
 
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Posts: 271 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 255 given, 145 received



You can see that the entries are close to each other. MM3 actually take more trades and has more favorable fills than MM2. (The MM series were different money management algos but I changed the entry on MM3 also). MM2 waits a little longer to confirm the signal and thus has a higher percentage wins. I need to analyze why it has higher individual losses.

The problem with trading is one needs to be right twice!
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  #110 (permalink)
Bakersfield, CA USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: Bonds, YM
 
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Posts: 271 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 255 given, 145 received


MM3 produce the only trade today:


for $262.50 BC or ~$257.50 for a total for July of $1568.75 minus ~90 (for 18 trades) = 1480 for Net for July for system MM3 trading one contract of 6E-09-15 at a time.

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