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Topsteptrader 20-day Custom Combine: Ataraxia
Started:September 16th, 2013 (07:26 AM) by pepiolas Views / Replies:413 / 2
Last Reply:September 18th, 2013 (09:28 AM) Attachments:0

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Topsteptrader 20-day Custom Combine: Ataraxia

Old September 16th, 2013, 07:26 AM   #1 (permalink)
Elite Member
Santiago, Chile
Futures Experience: None
Platform: Ninjatrader
Favorite Futures: ES
Posts: 4 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 0 given, 8 received

Topsteptrader 20-day Custom Combine: Ataraxia

this is a little intro:
I started trading my 20- day personalized 150k Combine three days ago. The target for my combine is 14k in 20 days, with just a profit objective, but I canīt lose more than 3k/day or 4.5k in drawdown. I will be posting every day from now.

At this moment I am down $300 dollars, since I am combining my strategy which only focuses on the /ES and the /NQ and a famous trading room I joined. Trading the room has been a bad idea as I have lost about 1300 Dollars trading their calls. I have joined 70% of the rooms out there and I can say, none have worked. Thatīs just a heads-up for newer traders.

My strategy is based on identifying the indexes leaders and looking for direction in them and also tracking buy/sell programs through the $EPREM. I have been trading for 8 years now and my only real success has come from trading options and some statistical arbitrage, as I know when I have an edge there. In 2012 I made more than 400k trading futures for a fund; however, that success quickly fizzled, as the Euro Crises faded (in my opinion temporarily) and markets lost volatility. I started in Topstep because itīs much better than trading a fund, as it is more strict for risk-taking, but one get up to 80% of the profits. I would get paid 20% in the fund.
Good thing is that I knew it would happen as my strategies were very basic (reading tape through delta to confirm technical indicators + patterns) and I quickly reduced size.
What is my edge today? (question every trader should ask). I have tried everything, no kidding. I know how to read the tape(delta), know about volume analysis, all tech indicators and patterns, candlesticks, statistical arbitrage, etc. I have tested everything back and forward and these, sorry, but will not give any trader an edge. Expectancy ends up being zero, so I believe if one wants to become a trader that makes any kind of income, one has to find an edge. One only has an edge when he/she does not anyone to know how that edge maybe executed.

1. Being able to quantitatively measure leaders in each index.

2. Understand buy/sell programs.

3. Only explode times during the day were historical volatility is rising.

My flaws:

I am a horrible trader. Seriously, after 8 years, I cannot control my emotions. In 2012, I had no emotions to control since my strategy was a daily winner and when one is up a few hundred k, itīs easier but in 2013, just like in 2009, I realized I cannot trade well. I may be able to make the combine because my system is fairly mechanical but thatīs it.


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Old September 16th, 2013, 07:26 AM   #2 (permalink)
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Old September 18th, 2013, 09:28 AM   #3 (permalink)
Elite Member
Santiago, Chile
Futures Experience: None
Platform: Ninjatrader
Favorite Futures: ES
Posts: 4 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 0 given, 8 received

09.17.13 Topsteptrader 20-day Custom Combine: Ataraxia

Hi traders,

Yesterday was a bad day to trade for me. My models are making TOS run out of memory, but I traded anyways. I just simplified the code of the models. The result was bad: -250.

My TOS was blocked in the early 9.30 E.T rally and after seeing the rally and knowing that it was FOMC 1st day, I just knew I should not trade. However, as I posted, I am not a very disciplined trader, so I traded with a completely new model and after the only big move there was. Horrible conditions, but I still managed to make about 550 but commissions ate all up and a bit more to -250.

At around 10ish, locals in the S&P pit started getting short. I also saw some sell programs hitting and shorted for a few NQ points. After that, I panicked/ angered seeing that the day was slow and I could not reach the target so I started taking big size as soon as programs hit the market and I was profitable in most o them but they were small programs that did not move the market significantly so commissions ate me up.

Problems: 1. Overtraded.
2. Knew that signals were not good to move markets but still looked for a runner.
3. Biggest problem was to trade a simplified model and trade after the main move happened.

Any positives?

I did hit about 80% winners since I was really focused.

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