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jmsUK TST Combine 100K 20 day NQ CL


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jmsUK TST Combine 100K 20 day NQ CL

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  #1 (permalink)
 jmsUK 
Manchester, Greater Manchester, UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader7
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 88 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 363 given, 136 received

Hi guys,
This is my first thread and the first thing I need to say is good luck to @Big Mike with your new adventure.
It looks great fun and you must have worked really hard (and smart) to be able to do that. Nice job.
Also thanks to you for the site AND for the discount in the Combine. Much appreciated.
On Monday 9 Sept I start a 100K 20 day Combine trading CL and NQ

I am going to have to learn as I go how to post images and decide what to post and when.
Some have taken a lot of trouble and time to give others helpful insights
and details of progress and I hope that my journey will be of benefit to myself
and possibly also to others. We will see.

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  #3 (permalink)
 jmsUK 
Manchester, Greater Manchester, UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader7
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 88 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 363 given, 136 received


The $100,000 20 day Combine that I have chosen requires:
10 lot max position
$2,000 Daily Loss Limit
$3,000 Max Drawdown
$8,500 Profit Target



My entries are mostly reversion to mean/PB types.
The shape of the SMAs, that I use, show me the direction and strength of the trend, while the SMAs themselves will often provide support/resistance.
In the right context, the Fib retracement trade is another favourite, especially in NQ
I sometimes take the BO trade, but often it is more unpredictable and higher risk.

Preparation for trading
For CL this involves a thorough analysis of the wave status.
Currently (Sept 2013), I am using 120 min ETH for the bigger perspective, wave counts & retracements, then I drill down to the 30 and 15min for more detail.
But lately, CL has got so BIG, that the 240min, the daily (and even weekly) need to be kept in mind!

I use those TFs for perspective, BUT am ready to ignore them all when I see a significant PA development on 5min chart. The trend on the 5min chart is the one I want to be on and it will trump all others at certain times.

With NQ, the charts are slightly different: the perspective I want to look at is shown on the 15min usually (sometimes have to go out to the 30min). Here again, the trend I want to trade is defined on the 5min chart, and my SMAs together with Fib targets and retracements work well on NQ when it is moving freely. The perspective of the daily chart should also be considered.
With both markets, fine-tuning for scaling in/out/re-entries can be achieved using tick charts (currently 90t for CL and 125t for NQ on NinjaTrader/Zen-Fire during RTH).
I prefer pictures to words and my charts tend to be a little cluttered with notes until it becomes too much, then I have a clear out.

My trading strategy
On NQ I will enter with 4/5 lots using a 10 tick stop aiming for target part 20 and part 40 ticks in the early session (or discretion to run the position), while in mid-session when it is slower, I will use 10 tick stop initially then tighten quickly, target part 12, part 20.

On CL, I plan to enter with 2 lots and use a 10 tick stop and target half 15 ticks, half 25, though in London session, targets may need to be reduced to 12 and 18 ticks depending on conditions. Again, I would use discretion to run the position in the case of a major breakout etc.

2 losses in a row will stop me in my tracks for a period of reflection in order to check where I am and whether I am in the right state of mind etc to carry on. This loss would be approx 25% of my permissible daily loss limit and 17% of my max drawdown.

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 jmsUK 
Manchester, Greater Manchester, UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader7
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 88 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 363 given, 136 received

After 5 consecutive trading days of internet connectivity problems, and 2 visits from the engineer on Monday, yesterday, I finally had a good connection today, however, the market turned slow in the London session and I found it hard to tune in to what was actually going on.
I saw the potential for a run to the upside in early trading and entered on a breakout, held it through the pullback but it could not make it, and just before it fell another 26 ticks, I exited for a loss of 6 ticks total on 2 lots, which was the best thing I did all day.
After that, I realized that I wasn't seeing the market for one reason or another, but continued watching and had pretty well decided to do nothing more for the London session.
In the US session, I was close to catching the 3rd and 5th early waves up but was hesitant and not really on it, so soon after that I pulled out.
I exercised discipline by withdrawing, as I knew there would be better days for me: days when I will be in tune and up for it.
I have 20 days for this Combine, and I do not want to waste any $$s when I am not at my best.

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 jmsUK 
Manchester, Greater Manchester, UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader7
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 88 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 363 given, 136 received

Yesterday, Wednesday, I had 15 issues of internet disconnection. Added to that, in an attempt to download software to track my data usage, looking to add another ISP with a data limit, I inadvertently downloaded some kind of malware. I spent most of this morning with a friend running tests and trying to eliminate it. Think we got it.
The ISP engineer came again today and reported that they think they have found the problem and fixed it last night. I lost the connection at exactly 1300 CT yesterday!!
Today my connection was perfect.

However, this has been the worst period of internet disruption that I can recall and possibly at the worst time it could have happened.
I am 9 trading days into my Combine and have traded 1 day, have lost focus, concentration, am out of process and generally extremely frustrated.

On the positive side, I have not got out of control with my actions and I have tomorrow (Friday) and the weekend to get myself together.
If I can maintain my connection over the weekend, I will be ready and eager to start trading Monday.
I have 35 trading days left, of which I have to trade 19, so there is time.
Nice weekend to all

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 jmsUK 
Manchester, Greater Manchester, UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader7
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 88 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 363 given, 136 received

Finally my internet connection looks to be good and I spent the day getting my bearings.
I made a trade late into the US session but I misread the situation and managed a stop-out out for a 5 point loss.
It was a day when I should have done better, even done really well as there were many setups that were favourable for me, however after a 2 week ‘lay-off’ (waiting for internet), I was a bit ‘rusty’.
My aim tomorrow is to be more alert and attack my setups.

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trader000
Ohio USA
 
 
Posts: 65 since Jun 2013
Thanks: 23 given, 64 received

jms - if you are doing the journal for the combine discount, be aware that they want 200 words + screenshots each day you trade to fully qualify. You can post screenshots from the T4 software and/or the TST website.

Good luck!

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 jmsUK 
Manchester, Greater Manchester, UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader7
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 88 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 363 given, 136 received

@trader000 thank you for taking trouble to point that out to me. In fact I do now know about the 200 words and the TST discount but I didn't know about it when I started. I was happy with a 20% discount for being an elite member of futures.io (formerly BMT). I decided to commit to doing the journaling thing to try to make myself accountable and responsible for my actions. There is nowhere to hide when you mess up or don't perform in the way that you wanted. It is no fun reporting that you did what you should not have done and did not do what you should have. Journaling gives great incentive to do it properly. So...I will keep trying to be the best I can be.
Thanks again. I see you are doing well with yours. Keep up the good work.

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trader000
Ohio USA
 
 
Posts: 65 since Jun 2013
Thanks: 23 given, 64 received


jmsUK View Post
@trader000 thank you for taking trouble to point that out to me. In fact I do now know about the 200 words and the TST discount but I didn't know about it when I started. I was happy with a 20% discount for being an elite member of futures.io (formerly BMT). I decided to commit to doing the journaling thing to try to make myself accountable and responsible for my actions. There is nowhere to hide when you mess up or don't perform in the way that you wanted. It is no fun reporting that you did what you should not have done and did not do what you should have. Journaling gives great incentive to do it properly. So...I will keep trying to be the best I can be.
Thanks again. I see you are doing well with yours. Keep up the good work.

I did not know there was a different discount for elite futures.io (formerly BMT) members.

Good luck w/ your combine!

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 jmsUK 
Manchester, Greater Manchester, UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader7
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 88 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 363 given, 136 received


@trader000
There is a 20% discount for Elite members on the FIRST Combine, which I was pleased with. There are also benefits on data feed and software deals too.

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 jmsUK 
Manchester, Greater Manchester, UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader7
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 88 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 363 given, 136 received

It wasn’t big but it was my first profitable day so pleased with that.
I started off early in the London session with a long position looking for the chance of a breakout, but all I got was a retrace to 61.8 and then it faltered, so I scraped out with a couple of ticks profit. Was still thinking higher and because of that, I didn’t ‘trust’ 2 excellent sell signals, so I missed the trades. Market fell and as I look back I say to myself, I must trade what I see, trade my setup, and be more open minded and aware of what is ACTUALLY happening. Setups are profitable opportunities that I have developed over time and I need to tune in better. Saying that, I awoke very tired this morning, so a small profit is an acceptable outcome for the day.
The next trade was a sell that I was ready and waiting for and I entered carefully. My MAE was 3 ticks and I entered on the rise after a strong push but the exit was poor as I allowed myself to close out much too soon, having incorrectly interpreted a buy signal.
After that the market got crazy and fast and later my mouse crashed, so I had to go out for a new one. This afternoon (0822 CT) the internet went down for 2.5 hours.
P&L was $180

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 jmsUK 
Manchester, Greater Manchester, UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader7
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 88 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 363 given, 136 received

Not available for the start of the London session, where the shapes and setups appeared to favour my style. There was a fantastic 5 wave move hitting fib targets with 5 thrusts in the 5th. By comparison, the US session was range-bound and deceptive to me, as I felt the structure/state (15min) and other longer term charts could have supported a sharp rise, the 5th wave high earlier possibly being a wave 1 or at least an A. Those days when CL went up more easily than down seem far away now :-) I had 2 trades - 1 loss, 1 profit and decided to step aside for rest of day. Again, I had a (slightly longer term) view on the market that was not reflected by my main trading chart (5min). I didn't trade what was there, I traded what I expected and they weren't the same thing and it doesn't work!! It's not easy facing up to this in public but it's the second day in a row when I have not traded what was in front of me. This is a mistake I should not make twice (especially after hearing Scotty last night).
P&L was -$180

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 jmsUK 
Manchester, Greater Manchester, UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader7
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 88 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 363 given, 136 received

Here's the chart

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2013-09-26_1749_CL_11-13_London_session.png
Views:	118
Size:	140.5 KB
ID:	124258  
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 jmsUK 
Manchester, Greater Manchester, UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader7
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 88 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 363 given, 136 received


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 jmsUK 
Manchester, Greater Manchester, UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader7
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 88 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 363 given, 136 received


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 jmsUK 
Manchester, Greater Manchester, UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader7
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 88 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 363 given, 136 received

TST screenshots of performance to date are posted above.
I have started to make some necessary changes during this week, as I face up to the realization that I have some issues which are causing me to under-perform. My trades are NOT a reflection of the opportunities that I can see and that I call my setup: I am passing on many trades and making others that are not in my setup. I have also realized that I have become fearful of losing and even of trading at all. On Monday 29 Sept, I reduced my size on a trade in CL from 2 to 1, but it did not affect how I performed.
I have decided that instead of trying to trade CL starting at 0800 BST (=0200 CDT) and going through to 1700 (=1100 CDT), I now want to revert to trading NQ during RTH at least to the lunchtime break. I made a few tentative trades on 3 days and although I think I am ‘seeing’ the market well, I am still not trading it properly. This has led me to realize therefore that a more substantive change to my mental attitude and trading plan is needed. Week commencing Oct 7, I aim to work on this. If I prepare and do not trade at all this week, I will have 20 trading days remaining out of which I must trade 12. I believe that the best use of my time is to ABSOLUTELY determine what I need to do, how to do it and how to be in the best frame of mind for it.
I am leaving it late to start growing the account but I am where I am and I will do my best.

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LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
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Maybe this will help...

I was in a similar situation. Not able to execute what was right in front of me, as my plan was unfolding. Now I tell myself only one thing - "just do your job" when its time to execute. Just these words - "do your job, you cannot control the market, only your actions". Worked for me in terms of execution.

I am not consistently successful yet but I tell myself "so what if it takes 20 combines to get it right, at least its keeping me honest for a small premium". I am on my 8th combine now - 3 of last 4 have rolled over, 2 are in progress.

Let yourself make the mistakes.

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 jmsUK 
Manchester, Greater Manchester, UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader7
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 88 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 363 given, 136 received


iNeo View Post
Maybe this will help...

@iNeo Thanks for your comment and what you say is sensible and right and I know I need to do that. I try to go deeper and resolve the issue that holds me back and then step on the pedal. I will take the week off to strengthen and flesh out my plan and my thinking and come back next week with a better more robust plan of ACTION and with the resolve and determination to put it into practice.
Appreciate your comment.
Was looking at your combine comments and I notice you get some great profit runs: 30c/60c in CL and I saw a 19.5 profit in NQ on that big up day and an 8.00+ pt trade in ES! IMO, if those setups repeat consistently 2 or 3 times a day and you can identify them and fine-tune the entries, all you will need is to gradually build size to make the break through. I am sure you will have also thought that, but you are looking good from where I stand.
Keep up the good work (it's good enough) and be patient..
Best

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 jmsUK 
Manchester, Greater Manchester, UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader7
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 88 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 363 given, 136 received

I feel the need to finish off this journal. Although I did not write here, I did keep my own journal going. I suppose it was too personal to write in public.
I got off to a bad start and I did not complete the required number of trading days or make a profit.

What I realized as the Combine progressed was that I had not put in place, in advance, a plan for every eventuality as per Suzanne B’s suggestions in her webinars at TST.

I have signed up for another Combine starting 25 November and below are a few improvements I plan to make.

I now have a Wi-Fi hot spot back up in case of failure of my wired internet connection.
I now have a better plan for time management (trading hours and time away from screen).
I was very appreciative that John Hoagland took the time to review my Combine. He highlighted my need to concentrate more on my R:R ratio. I had focused too much on trading out at ~1:1 with the intention of replacing (scalping). I need to look for a more distant target using set-ups probably off a longer time-frame chart, so looking for more of a position trade.
I know that tick charts are helpful for fine-tuning the entry and that they will always lead the longer time-frames, but what I have fallen down on and now (re-)learnt is that, for what I am trying to do, I should restrict my use of the tick chart to fine-tuning when the signal is generated off my main TF – 5min, and better still when 15 min is also favourable.
From listening to others, and from my own experience, I plan to get involved in the first 2 hours RTH and make a couple of choice trades and then step back (and maybe away).

BTW, I have found the educational input from TST to be superb and I feel I am growing as a result of it.
The chat rooms are friendly and everyone is on the same page—aiming to help each other improve.
I look forward to my next Combine and good luck to you if you are doing one.
I am not sure the public journalling worked for me, so I do not plan to journal here.

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