I've never kept stats and I've always just "winged" it, how random I guess. Several on this thread have mentioned expectancy now and I noticed it on the FT webinar I watched. I'm going to start keeping an excel spreadsheet with my trades and find out what my expectancy is. I paid for the FT webinars on his website several years ago, I assume I should re watch them and also watch the new webinars here on futures.io (formerly BMT)?
Does anyone have an excel spreadsheet that will generate the stats %'s and such?
yes but I still have a 50/50 chance on every trade I take.
The probability that my trade is going to work is high. That is my edge. That is why I take the trade. But I still know that I have a 50 50 chance at my trade working and that is why I know the only thing I can manage is my risk.
Therefore the maximum risk I will take is a 1:1.
Just my 2 cents.
If you always do what you have always done you will always get what you have always gotten.
Celebrate because you executed your edge. Not because you won.
The following user says Thank You to Patrick S for this post:
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Need help? 1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first. 2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses. 3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make. 4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance. 5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers. 6) Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.
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The following user says Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
The leap into freedom is the exchanging of risk for reward. This can be done only by shifting from tension to ease, and that can be done only when one perceives the reward and not the risk. That you won't win all the time has nothing to do with it - that's life, that's the [stock] market. The trying itself is freeing. And being free has its own reward - Justin Mamis, The Nature of Risk