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I've never kept stats and I've always just "winged" it, how random I guess. Several on this thread have mentioned expectancy now and I noticed it on the FT webinar I watched. I'm going to start keeping an excel spreadsheet with my trades and find out what my expectancy is. I paid for the FT webinars on his website several years ago, I assume I should re watch them and also watch the new webinars here on futures.io (formerly BMT)?
Does anyone have an excel spreadsheet that will generate the stats %'s and such?
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Even though all trades have the potential for a random outcome, don't you think that some setups yield a higher probability of working in your favor because of short term market behavior?
yes but I still have a 50/50 chance on every trade I take.
The probability that my trade is going to work is high. That is my edge. That is why I take the trade. But I still know that I have a 50 50 chance at my trade working and that is why I know the only thing I can manage is my risk.
Therefore the maximum risk I will take is a 1:1.
Just my 2 cents.
If you always do what you have always done you will always get what you have always gotten.
Celebrate because you executed your edge. Not because you won.
