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Scalpingticks ES Journal
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Scalpingticks ES Journal

  #31 (permalink)
Elite Member
Chicago, IL
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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I've never kept stats and I've always just "winged" it, how random I guess. Several on this thread have mentioned expectancy now and I noticed it on the FT webinar I watched. I'm going to start keeping an excel spreadsheet with my trades and find out what my expectancy is. I paid for the FT webinars on his website several years ago, I assume I should re watch them and also watch the new webinars here on futures.io (formerly BMT)?

Does anyone have an excel spreadsheet that will generate the stats %'s and such?

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  #32 (permalink)
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Patrick S View Post
Ft71 has some fantastic stuff. I listen to his webinars frequently.

His last webinar he said the holy grail is consistency in your "rough" edge.
He attributed your edge to be as good as the 100 coin toss.
Basically if you have a 1:1 ratio where you never move your stop and you go all in (no runners) and all out. You are playing to give away commissions and slippage because you have a 50/50 chance at what ever trade you take.. Remember he said "All trades have a random outcome" ALL TRADES

In the back of my mind I heard him say that I need to have better than a 1:1 ratio.
That is not to say that I cannot start out with a 1:1 ratio and adjust my stop... As long as I do it based on structure and NOT fear.

Even though all trades have the potential for a random outcome, don't you think that some setups yield a higher probability of working in your favor because of short term market behavior?

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  #33 (permalink)
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scalpingticks View Post
Even though all trades have the potential for a random outcome, don't you think that some setups yield a higher probability of working in your favor because of short term market behavior?

yes but I still have a 50/50 chance on every trade I take.
The probability that my trade is going to work is high. That is my edge. That is why I take the trade. But I still know that I have a 50 50 chance at my trade working and that is why I know the only thing I can manage is my risk.
Therefore the maximum risk I will take is a 1:1.
Just my 2 cents.

If you always do what you have always done you will always get what you have always gotten.
Celebrate because you executed your edge. Not because you won.
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  #34 (permalink)
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scalpingticks View Post
Does anyone have an excel spreadsheet that will generate the stats %'s and such?

https://futures.io/psychology-money-management/4884-trading-metrics-journals-record-keeping.html

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  #35 (permalink)
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scalpingticks View Post

Does anyone have an excel spreadsheet that will generate the stats %'s and such?

This is all I use:

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B9vAC7FwyF7hSERUdVBzMEt5QWc/edit?usp=sharing

The leap into freedom is the exchanging of risk for reward. This can be done only by shifting from tension to ease, and that can be done only when one perceives the reward and not the risk. That you won't win all the time has nothing to do with it - that's life, that's the [stock] market. The trying itself is freeing. And being free has its own reward - Justin Mamis, The Nature of Risk
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