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gulbenkian TST journal

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  #1 (permalink)
 Surly 
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OK - so my TST username is gulbenkian and I'm going to journal my combine starting on sept. 3rd. TST has a combine discount offer that you can only take advantage of through a complete online journal with pics of all the trades. I use NT for charting and T4 for entry so my trade charts will be unadorned with any annotation, just the trades. My start date is sept 3rd and I'm going to do the 20-day 50k combine.

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  #3 (permalink)
 Surly 
denver, colorado
 
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This morning I came in cautiously bullish. We had been crawling up the 1st deviation of the weekly vwap in the europe session and my view is that we're still in the breakout from 98 on July 2nd, making higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart.

We opened within yesterday's (friday) range and value. I waited for the IB to form and was looking at 107 as the first level of support based on the swing lows late last week. I wanted to be able to get filled on a long closer to the weekly vwap at around 6.90 and when the market tested 107 I was still waiting. I wasn't aggressive enough to buy above 107 but that was clearly the place to initiate a long position from.

After we broke out up I began a series of very tentative trades from 7.75 (eth vwap 1st deviation) and then from 7.60. I entered these trades very well but was too skittish to hold them. I guess that nervousness about starting out on the right foot in this combine made me over-cautious. In any event, I closed all my trades today with very small profits at the first sign of trouble. Tomorrow I hope to loosen up and just take the trades I see and let them play out more completely.

Here are my executions on a 5m RTH chart:


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trader000
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Is the chart from T4?
If so, how did you get it to plot your P&L at the bottom of the chart itself?

Good luck!
Doing my own combine too.

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 Surly 
denver, colorado
 
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Today I began the day with a bullish bias. We opened up within the range of value from yesterday and when that is the case I often wait for the IB to form before I develop a bias and take a position. The market had just tested the o/n high before the open and sold off straight from the bell. I had opened a long just before the open with the premise that the market would run stops above the o/n high and was stopped out as soon as the market opened. I wasn't prepared to initiate a short so I waited. Once the market made its initial lows I tried selling pullbacks to the developing eth value low (I use the 1st deviation of vwap to determine the value area). I was not giving these trades much room to work and kept getting stopped out on trades that were working.

After the market hit 107 and the big passive buyer came in (500 contracts traded at the bid), I thought that these positions would get attacked right away so I shorted as soon as the bounce paused. I stopped out of both of these and realized that 107 may hold for a while.

I think bought the 1st pullback after the bounce from 107 (bought 7.16) and planned on riding that up to 7.60. I had a sell at .59 but the market only hit .57. I had wanted to go short at 7.60 and it took me two entries to get a position that I was comfortable with. I expected a test of 106.80 and tried to hold my short as long as possible. I stopped out and re-shorted but the market wanted to go up. I decided to take a break here.

After the morning I took a few more trades but my heart wasn't in it. I realized that I had read the market correctly but failed to keep my conviction that 106.8 would be tested. Even at the end of the day after 6.80 was tested and I bought the retest I was not confident enough to hold the trade for a credible swing up.

I will continue to try to develop my market understanding and trade with conviction rather than letting the noise shake me out of a trade. Here were my entries for the day:


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 Surly 
denver, colorado
 
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I should add that after the open drive short I changed my bullish bias to bearish. I wrote this in a chat window which explains my reasoning and why I developed a bear bias after the open (I wrote this at 8:22 cst):

The only thing I can see here is that last friday and yesterday, we tried to get above the bracket high of 8.75 (or so) and failed both days. last week we looked above that bracket high and failed. So it is possible that the two failures on friday and yesterday have intermediate term traders gunning for the bottom of the bracket at 102.50 or so. Thus we're seeing selling today in response to the two failures.

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 jmsUK 
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Surly View Post
I should add that after the open drive short I changed my bullish bias to bearish. I wrote this in a chat window which explains my reasoning and why I developed a bear bias after the open (I wrote this at 8:22 cst):

The only thing I can see here is that last friday and yesterday, we tried to get above the bracket high of 8.75 (or so) and failed both days. last week we looked above that bracket high and failed. So it is possible that the two failures on friday and yesterday have intermediate term traders gunning for the bottom of the bracket at 102.50 or so. Thus we're seeing selling today in response to the two failures.


Good luck Surly. Am starting Monday with CL and NQ

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 Surly 
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trader000 View Post
Is the chart from T4?
If so, how did you get it to plot your P&L at the bottom of the chart itself?

Good luck!
Doing my own combine too.

I guess I'm not sure because when I open a chart in t4 it plots my PnL at the bottom - I really only use the DOM in t4 and haven't done much with the charting. T4 cust support is very responsive to emails though - might ask them.

good luck in your combine.

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 Surly 
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Good luck Surly. Am starting Monday with CL and NQ

Good luck!

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 Surly 
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Today I came in bearish, thinking that we were going to test the lows of our current bracket (6.80 to 8.80) before we tested the highs. I still thought that failed breakout above 109 was going to make the market more bearish.

I got off on the wrong foot right from the beginning thinking we were headed down - 3 losers in a row. After the market went up to the highs I wanted to be short near the overnight high but I was way too impatient and not picky enough with my trade location. I kept shorting and scratching, shorting and scratching. I was trading price not value as Dalton says. What I needed to do was identify the level of interest, the bias, and just take one trade with a stop in a location that would prove me wrong if it was hit.

After quite a long series of losers and scratches I finally got a short that went down but I was too Tilted to hold the winner and closed as soon as the move paused. After that I was still short biased and so shorted the move back up from the lows until I hit my daily loss limit of $500 and shut T4 down.

Pretty shitty day for me - I fell back into some bad habits and bad mental states that I obviously haven't sorted out yet. Tomorrow is a new day and I will be trying to stick to my plan and risk control and hold winners.


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 Surly 
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 jmsUK 
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Surly View Post
Today I came in bearish, ..... and shut T4 down.

...Tomorrow is a new day and I will be trying to stick to my plan and risk control and hold winners.



Was a tough day for sure. I was looking for a few sim trades before I start the real thing Monday, but it wasn't my kind of shape/set-up. You did what you did, hit your limit, got back to base to refuel, reload ready for the next day. That's good approach. Some days aren't so good.
You decided to go for the 20 day (as did I), presumably as you realized that some days wont go quite as expected. It gives you enough time to wait for the kind of set up that you really like, so you can do your thing.

Good luck for tomorrow.

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 Surly 
denver, colorado
 
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Hard not to come in bullish today. The market looked to be trying to revisit highs from last week. Once we were above 8.80 I was bullish due to the fact that we had got back outside the multi-week bracket from 102 to 109 (ish). Despite my bullishness I tried to short the market at the start of the day. We had an open drive and I think it was just FOMO that caused me to short the initial rally. When we didn't have any continuation I thought we might move down and close the gap. I churned my trades a bit here.

After a few losses I waited for a bit and it was clear we were likely to head higher. I bought a second test down at 9.39 which was based off the .5 deviation of eth vwap and a trendline I had loosely drawn on a tick chart. I failed to hold this trade long enough and took profits with a trailing stop. After this I shorted the top at 10.35 based on exhaustion near a level (10.45) I had identified previously (from aug. 28) but scratched. This was pretty much the theme for the rest of the day - scratching trades.

I struggled to hold onto trades today and I struggled with churning and taking poor entries. I missed a couple really good trades that I had identified due to impatience (not waiting for the entry price I had identified) and that made me skittish. It is impossible to trade well when you are not confident and have conviction in your trades. Developing the patience to wait for the levels I've identified and the conviction to hold trades once I've initiated them is what I will be working on next week. My trades are below:


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 Surly 
denver, colorado
 
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 Surly 
denver, colorado
 
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I didn't manage to capture my trade report today before Topstep took the data off their servers and so I'm posting my eth tick chart in lieu of that without the trades marked. I took 13 or so trades today - the report says 16 but some of my trades were 2 contract trades and so the 16 number just represents round turns.

I had a short bias coming into the day but didn't want to trade the open because we were opening in the middle of yesterdays value - right at the POC from yesterday. After we broke below the o/n low I shorted as we came back to the eth vwap low level and held for a new low. Once we had the big move up at 7:25 mst or so I began to look for a long. One of the levels I had marked on my chart was the ledge on the TPO profile from Aug 28. This was a significant day because it was on that trade day we had the spike high to 112 or so. If you look at the profile from that day there is a lower ledge on the profile and I wanted to buy if the market made it down to that level. Because we had made it down there I decided to buy at the daily pivot at 109.70 - I rode this trade up but faltered and closed without taking it all the way to the open.

For the rest of the day I was taking short scalps because the market was not breaking. I expected a break but when you don't get it, you've got to acknowledge that and just accept it and go with it. The break came in the after-hour market and I didn't trade it.

Posted a decent number today so I'm in better shape on reaching the profit goal.





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 Surly 
denver, colorado
 
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I figured out how to access trade fills after they are removed from the T4 platform. Here are my trades for today:


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 Surly 
denver, colorado
 
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I got off to a very poor start today. I got sucked into the volatility in the pre-market and began trading without develop a solid plan for the day and evaluating the big picture and possible levels of interest. I didn't have my charts marked up nor did I have a well-developed plan for the open with possible scenarios and my reactions to those scenarios. In short, I did not prepare well enough.

My trades today were mostly impulsive - getting off to a bad start made it more difficult to hold good trades when I did get them. Being in the hole makes me more likely to close a good trade the second it starts going against me. This makes it impossible to get back to positive because I never get the big winners that are necessary to offset all the small losers I'm taking.

It is my goal to get into positions that i can hold for 30m to 90m. To do this I need to have a very high level of conviction to stay in a trade for that long - you cannot count on the market to reinforce your idea, you have to have the conviction, hedge your risk by scaling out or using some means to offset the risk you're taking, and just hold on.

Currently I am trying just to hold a trade for a 30-tick or 50-tick target and hopefully stay in a trade for 15 minutes at least once per day.

Today I came in with a short bias - I expected a test of 107 and then of 6.40 (the low of memorial day). I was not able to get into or stay in trades to catch the moves to these levels. I will continue to work on identifying the major levels of confluence that are references for the market and keep trying to position myself to take advantage of moves to these levels.

My trade report and chart follow:




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 Surly 
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Today was a bit frustrating. I wasn't trading well and fell into bad habits. I was completely thrown off by the spike down after the oil inventories came out and couldn't see that this was just a liquidity vacuum and that buyers came in at 107 (a level that has been very important the last few weeks). I could only see it as a strong move down that would result in another move down so I was selling the major move of the day instead of riding it long.

I then became very defensive and hesitant with my trading and this led to several small losses and small wins which resulted in a long slow bleed of capital from the morning until the close.

I overtraded today by a mile - this happens when I'm trading defensively and without conviction. As I grow more confident in my ability to recognize what is going on and capitalize on it I will be able to hold my trades longer and thus take less trades. In any event I will keep trying to trade less and hold my trades longer - these two go hand in hand and I believe it is through a more thorough analysis that I will become more confident to enter and hold rather than take quick profits.

Finally, I really need to learn to trust my charts and the analysis they represent. I had the important levels marked today but I wasn't able to capitalize on them.


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 Surly 
denver, colorado
 
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Today I came in bullish. Yesterday we broke out of a balance day's range at the bottom of the bigger bracket we're in (6.50 to 10.50) - when a market breaks out of balance from the bottom of a bracket like that there is a pretty good chance the market will test the high of the bracket. We also had a gap down from 9.22 or so that we needed to fill.

My first trade was to short the double top at the o/n high. I waited a bit too long to open the short but the market cooperated and quickly moved down. I closed at about 30 ticks which was just me being impatient and not wanting to give back gains. My target was at least 108 if not the vwap low at 7.85 or so.

After that move down I begain shorting any bounces and chopped myself up quite a bit. Finally I did get a winning short but had I just waited for a good reference like vwap or the open I would have been fine. As it was I barely made enough to get me back to even.

Finally I noticed that we put in a higher low and I was not confident enough to buy the 2nd low and as the market started moving up I decided to buy once we broke above the last swing high. I let this trade run for quite some time as I thought it was possible we'd hit 9.30. When we made the 2nd top and couldn't break higher I closed the trade. I was really happy that I held a trade for a long time and was able to capitalize on the continued move higher.

Here are my trades:




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 Surly 
denver, colorado
 
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Today was an ok day. I was not able to enter without hesitation and I was also not able to hold my trades to completion but I did better than I have on average with these things. I began the day bearish and shorted the first move up thinking it was an "open-test-drive" and that we'd test the dval on eth vwap. I closed this trade prematurely when we bounced - this is a knee-jerk reaction that is left over from fading volume spikes on the 1m. Something I need to consciously get rid of.

I then bought for a quick scalp before getting short again. This was OK but I failed to hold the short with confidence and capitulated before the move I was expecting started. I was unable to capitalize on the move down. I then wanted to get long after we tested the LOY. I had a fat-finger error here but mainly was just too chicken to hold the long that I opened. I churned here trying to get into a long I was happy with and finally held a long I opened too far off the bottom.In this case it would have been better for me to just get into that trade at the LOY and walk away until vwap got hit. My final trades were long from the retest of the LOY and o/n low. It took two tries but I got long at 9:45 cst and held but again just didn't hold the trade. I rode my initial entry and then closed and re-opened another trade but just wasn't able to hold the trade once the trading got choppy. I stopped trading once price stalled at 108.

Doing a bit better than previous combines but still have a lot to improve on.





Here's my trade report as of day 8 (yest)


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 jmsUK 
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Well done. Nice couple of days to finish off the week.
Good luck for next week.
JS

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 Surly 
denver, colorado
 
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Today was quite a bad day. I was very distracted due to some personal things going on in my community and so was not able to give my full attention to the trading day. The best trade came right at the open with a move by traders to push the market down into stops below the overnight low. Once price was pushed low enough stops were elected and the traders wanted to establish long positions were able to begin a buying campaign that last almost all day. The market sold off into the close with the final longs liquidating their positions.

Unfortunately I did not recognize this fully - therefore I did not hold the longs I established near the lows. I was looking for another push down for most of the morning and was shorting the uptrend after my initial longs. Towards the end of the day I thought we would get a final push into the close but this ended up being a sell-off into the close. I was losing all day and as I said above, very distracted. One thing I need to learn to do better is recognize when I don't have an edge and just not trade when this is the case - being distracted and not fully engaged means I am not going to have an edge no matter what the market is doing.

here's my trade report after day 10:


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 Surly 
denver, colorado
 
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No trades today - still dealing with stuff in my community. At least I learned my lesson from yesterday...

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 Surly 
denver, colorado
 
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Well I've been very affected by a major disaster that's happened in my area (flooding) and my work has been completely disrupted. I've tried to balance work and efforts to deal with the effects of the flooding but it hasn't worked. I don't want to make excuses but I really should have just taken the week off.

So today went quite bad as well - I was not in tune with the market and fought the market all day. I wasn't able to recognize that we had hit the lower range of a channel or range we were in on the longer timeframe and so didn't get on board the buying that was happening all day. As is often the case, in retrospect the day seems straight forward to read and trade - however I was not in sync with what was going on and was not able to align myself and so continued losing until I finally shut things down.

At this point my goal for this combine is simply to roll-over the deposit and to prevent myself from blowing the max drawdown.

Here is my trade report:


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 jmsUK 
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Hi buddy, I did a search for flooding in Denver and I read with dismay that many lives have been lost and much hardship has been caused.
This is a horrible tragedy for those closest to the event, and I send my sympathies to you.
It may take some while for you to accept and come to terms with all this.

By my calculation, you have 30 trading days left of which you need to trade on 9. Maybe you could take some time off to attend to the immediate local needs. It will be hard to concentrate and get in tune with the market if you are preoccupied as obviously you are. You do not have to trade just because the market is open and you know that it will be much harder to get the result you want if your state of mind is not at least GOOD. You probably need to be in EXCELLENT shape to compete.
A short break could give you space to deal this event and maybe give more perspective to what you are trying to achieve in the Combine.
Best of luck.

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 Surly 
denver, colorado
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT
Trading: ZS
 
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Well @jmsUK - you were correct for sure. I traded this morning and dipped below my max drawdown and so tried to get back above and blew my daily loss limit. I was fighting the market all the way down. I wasn't able to trade much last week and I've gotten out of the flow of the market. I'm not in touch with what oil is doing. I could tell that we were headed lower and I wanted to get short just after the open. I didn't get my short filled and ended up fighting the market (buying) all the way down. When I finally tried a short trade I got stopped out just below my daily loss limit before the market tested back down.

I wasn't prepared nor did I have the focus required. I am taking a trip to visit some friends at the beginning of next week and wanted to mostly finish my combine prior to leaving. I will need to start another one when I return. Hopefully I will be able to give it the focus it requires.

Here is my trade report for today (the last day of my combine):


Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
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 jmsUK 
Manchester, Greater Manchester, UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader7
Trading: YM
 
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A break will be very beneficial for you (and for everyone from time to time). This trading is very intense.
Have a good one and, as we all know, the market is still going to be there and giving amazing opportunities any time you want to get involved.
I think the 20 day Combine is a good length: it gives time to recover from a few bad days, gives TST long enough to see what you are like and allows one to take time and be selective about setups etc.
Anyway, good luck with the restart.

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