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cunparis journal, thoughts, and more

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  #1 (permalink)
Paris, France
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Market Delta & Ninjatrader
Trading: ES
 
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Posts: 2,565 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,162 given, 2,077 received

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Update Nov 24 2010: If you just found this thread you should know that my trading has evolved during this thread and the way I trade now is completely different from when I started this thread. For one I dropped the eminiwatch method including better momentum, better sine wave, & multiple timeframes. My trading is much simpler now, I trade S/R levels based on market, volume profiles, & price. As a result I think it's not worth it to read through this thread if you're just finding it now. I haven't been actively posting about my daytrading to this thread as I prefer to post to my blog & twitter. You may find the swing trades in this thread interesting as that has not changed. Cheers & good luck with your journey.

My trading has evolved into a variety of different techniques including volume analysis, cycles, and more recently order flow, for both daytrading & swing trading. It's become difficult to keep up with the various threads I've started especially when I combine techniques and I don't know in which thread to post. Hence this thread. I plan to do the majority of my posting here. It's something I've wanted to do for a long time. Kind of like a blog, but I prefer the forum because it's more interactive and I don't have to host it.

I recommend reading these threads to understand some of the elements I use in my trading:

Market Cycles For Fun & Profit Note: No longer useful

Note: Completely outdated, no longer useful.

https://futures.io/traders-hideout/695-use-your-brain-mechanical-indicator-based-systems-dont-work.html Note: Still true!

Volume Ladder for NT - patterns and setups "journal" Note: Not very useful, I dropped the ladder.

Note: Very useful

Everyone is welcome to participate so please share your own ideas and ask questions. My time is limited, in fact I'm starting this thread right now because I'm still jetlagged and woke up at 3am. If there is a lot of participation I'll post more. If you don't have anything to contribute, consider using the thanks button to let people know their posts are appreciated (I'm not just talking about mine or this thread but for all of futures.io (formerly BMT)).

Let's get started.

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  #3 (permalink)
Paris, France
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Market Delta & Ninjatrader
Trading: ES
 
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Posts: 2,565 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,162 given, 2,077 received


I trade DAX & Euro in the European morning (my morning) and CL, Euro, & ES in the US Morning (my afternoon).

When I started trading full time in January, I went to mostly sim for my daytrading as I worked on adapting to the European morning and also incorporating new methods and adjust to the stress of trading full time and relying on trading to provide an income. It was much more stressful than I thought.

Yesterday I went to real money for my morning and will stay on sim for my afternoon for a little longer, I have a few more issues to work out.

Here's a volume ladder showing one of my euro trades from yesterday :



I trade with charts on Investor RT, Tradestation, & Ninjatrader. TS & IRT are used for "the big picture". When I see a setup, which could be a cycle setup or divergences in the order flow, I then go to the volume ladder to confirm and time my entry. For now, I'm going to focus on the volume ladder. I'm still working out how I'm going to do the big picture.

Yesterday's trades:



Basically I ended up +$60. My main goal in trading is to have a consistent income while minimizing losing days. This means I don't go for home runs. I used to do that with swing trading and was successful with it, but I was risking several thousand dollars on a trade.

That was ok when I had my consulting work to support me, but now I'm trading full time and that's too stressful right now. so I go for small base hits. Usually around 14 ticks. Just one of those a day is enough because if I'm consistent I can trade several contracts. So I'm very patient and wait for the best setups. 5 trades/day sounds about right, I'd prefer a little more so that I can recover from a couple losers.

My journal and testing says lately I've been about 66% right and averaging $200/day trading 1 contract. When that's more consistent and proven, I'll add a second contract with a slightly larger target.

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  #4 (permalink)
Paris, France
 
Experience: Advanced
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Trading: ES
 
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Posts: 2,565 since Jun 2009
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Observations:

Most people have difficulty learning the cycle method I use. Only a few get it.

The cycle is dependent on the bar size/type. You can always find a bar size/type to show an up cycle for example. This is the same for trend. You can always find a bar size/type to show an up trend, even if in a downtrend. for example if downtrend on 5min try 1min to look for uptrend. if you don't see it try 50 tick. if that doesn't work try 10 tick. you'll find an uptrend somewhere.

Here's an example: I took a downtrend on 5min and lowered my bar size until I found an uptrend. I got it at 50 ticks.



I circled the area where it'd be good to enter a trade. This area is when the smaller timeframe starts trending in the direction of the trend on the larger timeframe. The challenge is that you often can't know the smaller timeframe trend has changed until it's too late! In this example you could probably enter from the triple top and break of the trendline (right chart).

TRO said "Trend is an illusion".

Questions:

Is trend an illusion? If we can always find a bar size to show a trend in a given direction, can we rely upon it? How do we know that the bar size we're using isn't showing a trend by mere coincidence?

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  #5 (permalink)
Bellingham, WA
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Trading: 6E, CL
 
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cunparis View Post
I took a downtrend on 5min and lowered my bar size until I found an uptrend. I got it at 50 ticks.

Thanks for the thread CP. Never thought of looking at MTF this way. Very interesting.

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  #6 (permalink)
Paris, France
 
Experience: Advanced
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Trading: ES
 
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Posts: 2,565 since Jun 2009
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Here's my tradelog. It has one really cool feature: you don't have to enter any of your trades.

Just show your trades in ninjatrader, click export to csv, then copy the data (not the entire row) and then paste into the tradelog. I then add by hand everything starting column V, and the blue columns are calculated. The MFE is the farthest it went before getting stopped out. Ninja's MFE tells you the MFE during the trade, which on a winner is always the target. I want to know what I left on the table.

I separate T2 because I'm currently collecting stats on a 2nd target. Once I see it makes more than T1 then I'll start trading it.

You may have to play around with it.

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Paris, France
 
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dax trade, setup was the double top with yesterday's high (not shown)

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  #8 (permalink)
South Africa & London
 
Experience: None
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Trading: Major currency pairs
 
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Posts: 23 since Sep 2009
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Thanks for your new thread Cunparis. I look forward to learning and discussing your methods further.

An Interesting question regarding trend. I feel one can never say that a market is in a trend unless it is placed in context. Without context, TRO was right in saying that trend is an illusion. Different timeframes will show different trends, but when placed in the context of a trading decision, and by context I mean looking at expected profit to acceptable loss, one can use trend very effectively.

As an example, If there is a strong defined down trend on a weekly chart consisting of several thousand pips it is reasonable to base a short trade on a daily chart where your profit expectancy is a few hundred pips. The probability if the downtrend continuing for a further 100 pips is greater than it reversing. On the other hand, expecting a profit of a few thousand pips is not going to give the same edge.

On the other hand, if I am trading off a 1 minute chart, I am not very interested in what a weekly chart is doing. I am interested in what the 10 min chart is doing though. If the 10 min chart has trended up for 100 pips it is reasonable to base a long trade where I am expecting a profit of 10 pips.

This is why I have always liked your Cycle method, it places trend in context and you base your profit expectancy on what the higher timeframe trend is doing.




cunparis View Post
Observations:

Most people have difficulty learning the cycle method I use. Only a few get it.

The cycle is dependent on the bar size/type. You can always find a bar size/type to show an up cycle for example. This is the same for trend. You can always find a bar size/type to show an up trend, even if in a downtrend. for example if downtrend on 5min try 1min to look for uptrend. if you don't see it try 50 tick. if that doesn't work try 10 tick. you'll find an uptrend somewhere.

Here's an example: I took a downtrend on 5min and lowered my bar size until I found an uptrend. I got it at 50 ticks.



I circled the area where it'd be good to enter a trade. This area is when the smaller timeframe starts trending in the direction of the trend on the larger timeframe. The challenge is that you often can't know the smaller timeframe trend has changed until it's too late! In this example you could probably enter from the triple top and break of the trendline (right chart).

TRO said "Trend is an illusion".

Questions:

Is trend an illusion? If we can always find a bar size to show a trend in a given direction, can we rely upon it? How do we know that the bar size we're using isn't showing a trend by mere coincidence?


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  #9 (permalink)
Paris, France
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Market Delta & Ninjatrader
Trading: ES
 
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Posts: 2,565 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,162 given, 2,077 received

my first dax trade which didn't work out.

and a euro trade that's still open..

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Paris, France
 
Experience: Advanced
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Trading: ES
 
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Posts: 2,565 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,162 given, 2,077 received


here's the cycles that go with the 03 dax trade (first dax trade I posted, I posted them out of order). you can see the double top and the professional selling and all three cycles lined up. a perfect setup.

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December 3, 2010


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