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cunparis journal, thoughts, and more

  #101 (permalink)
 
trippenlatin's Avatar
 trippenlatin 
Houston, Tx
 
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Is the POT working on other charts, like Volume, Range, or Min?


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  #102 (permalink)
 
cunparis's Avatar
 cunparis 
Paris, France
 
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trippenlatin View Post
Is the POT working on other charts, like Volume, Range, or Min?

Only on tick charts due to the algorithm. It'd be possible with other types but the algorithm would be more complicated and possibly CPU intensive.

The tick chart doesn't bother me because I just have it running with only a few inches on the right side showing. I watch my normal charts and when I get a POT alert I glance down at the POT chart and then focus on my charts. I'm not trading off the POT chart.

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  #103 (permalink)
 
hinode's Avatar
 hinode 
Czech Republic
 
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cunparis View Post
Dax trading abysmal today. I had two trades that I ended up exiting at BE and +1 and they would have went on to hit at least +10. So I need more confidence there. That was as the dax was in a trading range.

Dax broke out and I didn't learn my lesson from crude the other day and I didn't keep in mind the big picture which was supporting a breakout.

I hope I learn it this time.

Clear zero here. Two trades, the first stopped out and the second I bought at 5998,5 and went with the brakeout. Then I failed as well and sold because I wanted to cover the first loss.

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  #104 (permalink)
 
cunparis's Avatar
 cunparis 
Paris, France
 
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Did better on CL as it was mostly range-bound. I think I trade much better when the markets are balanced and I fade moves to the extreme. So I have to work on the trend trading days.

Just a note: I'm trading turning points that are either with the "trend" (we have yet to define that in this thread) OR are not against any "trend". Meaning if the market is moving up then I'm looking to enter on pullbacks. If the market is just ranging then I'm looking to enter at the extremes, long at the lows and short at the highs. When the market goes from ranging to a breakout out I will most likely get stopped out and that's when I need to figure out if the market is trending so that I can focus on the pullbacks.

This sounds simple really but it's taken a while for me to figure this out. Some days I'd do very well and some days I'd do terribly. And sometimes it was the same day (great during morning and terrible in afternoon or vice versa).

I want to make that clear because some people only want to trade with the trend. You can certainly do that. I'll try to stress that a bit more.

To put it in a cycle perspective, if the market is cycling then I'm trading with the cycles. If the market breaks out of the higher timeframe cycle then I'm trading with the cycles on the smaller timeframe that are in the direction of the breakout on the higher timeframe. i hope that's clear if not let me know.

Still negative for the day but I now know what the problem is.

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  #105 (permalink)
 
cory's Avatar
 cory 
virginia
 
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tape is slow for ES today, here is my template

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  #106 (permalink)
 
cory's Avatar
 cory 
virginia
 
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a sim scalp and another setup, ignore spike, fish bone, wick, tail, onesy, twosy makes a trend.

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  #107 (permalink)
 
cunparis's Avatar
 cunparis 
Paris, France
 
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cory View Post
a sim scalp

I haven't tried the POT indicator with ES yet, I've been using it with DAX & CL just as a heads up and additional confirmation of a reversal. Glad to see it works for ES.

Here's my POT chart with my CL trades. I think one cannot set a threshold for all the time, it really depends on market activity. In the area I was trading, it was before the invenstory report and so activity was pretty low. However whenever the POT hit 150 it seemed to mark a turning point.

If anyone has an idea on how we can make the threshold auto-adjusting I'm very interested. Maybe use bollinger bands? Or a moving average? I'm just brainstorming right now, I'll try some ideas tomorrow.

Thanks for sharing, hopefully some others still share too. If you're using the POT let's see how you're using it. So far I think it's great!

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  #108 (permalink)
 
cunparis's Avatar
 cunparis 
Paris, France
 
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Swing Update:

Here's the ES daily chart. We just barely touched the top of the trend line (close enough, I think we were a couple ticks short). We're also approaching a 127.2% extension of the last corrective swing. Both could be points of resistance.



We closed off the high on decent volume, about average but more than average for recent activity. Lots of volume patterns lately including Profit Taking and Stopping Volume today.

For the cycles, we're in a breakout of all 3 timeframes so the sinewave isn't much help. That's why I also use the double stochastic.

There are lots of divergences in these charts. Just about everything is pointing to weakness and the gap up and close off the high supports that view.

And finally, here's what pushed me over the edge. The Turning Point Oscillator:



The TPO is just a hair shy of signalling a turning point. The red dots show the signals, when the threshold is breached. 5/6 of the last signals were profitable. Going back further it gets even better.

I've been testing the TPO on an intraday basis and the results have been about breakeven. But I think that is because I need to find the right timeframe to use and the daily is looking pretty good.

I also have a mechanical system that signalled a short a few days ago.

Put all that together and you'd have what Judge Wapner would call a "preponderance of the evidence". Well almost. I'd like to see an END of trend on the 45min cycle. But often that never comes so waiting for it isn't always the best choice.

So I'm short ES @ 1161.

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  #109 (permalink)
 
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 rassi 
the congo
 
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Although I don't have that much to share re the intraday trading what I would say is this. I'm not really sure what your pot indy does but just don't see the point in utilizing any indicators with the way of trading. The market delta platform provides the information to trade as near as possible to pit trading from a screen. Therefor the thing to work on is trade location areas where to look for imbalance and where trapped buyers\sellers would provide good entrys. Ideas are market profile, vwap and standard d of this pdh and pdl. Just my thoughts but these are the areas the floor looks to work.

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  #110 (permalink)
 
cunparis's Avatar
 cunparis 
Paris, France
 
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rassi View Post
Although I don't have that much to share re the intraday trading what I would say is this. I'm not really sure what your pot indy does but just don't see the point in utilizing any indicators with the way of trading. The market delta platform provides the information to trade as near as possible to pit trading from a screen. Therefor the thing to work on is trade location areas where to look for imbalance and where trapped buyers\sellers would provide good entrys. Ideas are market profile, vwap and standard d of this pdh and pdl. Just my thoughts but these are the areas the floor looks to work.

I pretty much agree with what you said. The POT is just an additional tool in the toolbox, which alerts me to when there is either an exhaustion move or when professionals are becoming active (or both, usually professionals are active on the exhaustion moves as they're taking the other side). This helps to anticipate turning points.

In studying the POT I think if one only took trades when there was a signal on the POT and a setup on the ladder, it'd be profitable. That would be a lot simpler than trade location which sounds easy but is actually quite tricky.

So I agree it's not necessary. However I do think it's a reliable and useful tool to help understand professional behavior.

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Last Updated on December 3, 2010


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