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cunparis journal, thoughts, and more
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cunparis journal, thoughts, and more

  #891 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Divergence

Hi CP,

Is the cumulative delta & price divergence your main entry setup? Is this the main setup that is taught by L2ST?

Thanks!

Regards,
TT

 
  #892 (permalink)
Trade with the flow
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Tradetronics View Post
Hi CP,
Is the cumulative delta & price divergence your main entry setup? Is this the main setup that is taught by L2ST?

I don't have a set "setup" but I just back from a run in the park and I think I need one. The reason is I often find a reason not to take a trade and end up missing a good one. I'd like to be more consistent.

My "setup" is simple: I look for a confluence of clues at a pre-determined level. Clues for me are mainly reading the DOM and presence/absence of professional/amateur activity.

I do have cumulative delta on my chart but I do not find it useful for divergences. If one looks in hindsight you will often find divergences at turning points. But real time you will find the divergences disappear often. For example yesterday 14 minutes after the open there was a CD Div but a few seconds later sellers pounded it and it dropped several pts. So I have not found it reliable real time. I may be missing something so if anyone is using it successfully then I'm interested.

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You can look at your charts to see what happened next. There are way too many holes in the theory of divergence. For one the delta depends on participation which varies by time of day. Another is many pros use both limit & market orders.

I even took the bid/ask off my ladder and just look at the total volume.

So what is the use of CD? Frankly I'm very tempted to take cumulative off and save a lot of screen space. But what I look for is just to see which way the market orders are coming and try not to fade them unless I have a good setup.

I don't know what L2ST uses right now, when I was in their room earlier this year they used "delta momentum divergence" which is delta-based but not cumulative. This actually makes more sense to me.

The problem with divergences, and this is the main reason I dropped Better Momentum, is they tell you what's happening NOW in relation to the past. Ok so shorts are less aggressive right NOW (see the chart above). That doesn't mean they won't be more aggressive 1 second from now.

As we look at divergences on a chart it seems so obvious in hindsight. That's because the ones that failed disappear and we don't see them. If one goes through a day scrolling bar by bar you'll see what I mean.

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  #893 (permalink)
Trade with the flow
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ES results since Oct 29 (when I dropped the eminiwatch method). Left axis is points and right is trades. I also trade Bund and the results are similar.

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  #894 (permalink)
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RE

Congratulations! This looks great!

 
  #895 (permalink)
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Price Ladder or DOM ??

Hi CP: I find your posts and your blog to be quite inspirational. Thanks for sharing your insights.

This is my first post to Big Mike’s Forum as I just joined today.

Like you, I also am finding FT71’s method to work well.

I wanted to tell you where I am with my trading and ask for your input. My setup is Investor/RT and ButtonTrader as my DOM. As I am learning to use FT71’s methods, I am mostly trading SIM and am trying to get CP before using these methods live.

I am trading 3 ES contracts and generally enter with an 8 tick stop and 4 tick initial target for my first scale. After I reach my first scale, I change my stops on the remaining two contracts to 2 ticks below breakeven so that the whole trade is then risk free.

I have been trying very hard to improve my trading and have been diligently journaling. I find the best journaling technique for me is to record what I am thinking at the time the trade is made. I also record my trades metrics and P&L. But I find that metrics are less helpful than a record of my thoughts when it comes to making improvements to my skills

Based upon my journal entries, I am doing quite well at identifying scenarios before the start of trading and identifying key levels. However, I am struggling with my entries at these levels. I am frequently entering too late or too early and then not exiting quickly enough when the trade goes against me. I think I need to either develop my DOM reading skills or upgrade Investor/RT to Market Delta and use footprint charts. Or perhaps I should use Gomi’s Ladder within NinjaTrader??

To me, learning to use footprint charts seems easier than learning to use the DOM. I am hearing you say that DOM reading works better for you. I would love to hear some detail on why this is the case for you.

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  #896 (permalink)
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Tartan View Post
Hi CP: I find your posts and your blog to be quite inspirational. Thanks for sharing your insights.

This is my first post to Big Mikeís Forum as I just joined today.

Like you, I also am finding FT71ís method to work well.

I wanted to tell you where I am with my trading and ask for your input. My setup is Investor/RT and ButtonTrader as my DOM. As I am learning to use FT71ís methods, I am mostly trading SIM and am trying to get CP before using these methods live.

I am trading 3 ES contracts and generally enter with an 8 tick stop and 4 tick initial target for my first scale. After I reach my first scale, I change my stops on the remaining two contracts to 2 ticks below breakeven so that the whole trade is then risk free.

I have been trying very hard to improve my trading and have been diligently journaling. I find the best journaling technique for me is to record what I am thinking at the time the trade is made. I also record my trades metrics and P&L. But I find that metrics are less helpful than a record of my thoughts when it comes to making improvements to my skills

Based upon my journal entries, I am doing quite well at identifying scenarios before the start of trading and identifying key levels. However, I am struggling with my entries at these levels. I am frequently entering too late or too early and then not exiting quickly enough when the trade goes against me. I think I need to either develop my DOM reading skills or upgrade Investor/RT to Market Delta and use footprint charts. Or perhaps I should use Gomiís Ladder within NinjaTrader??

To me, learning to use footprint charts seems easier than learning to use the DOM. I am hearing you say that DOM reading works better for you. I would love to hear some detail on why this is the case for you.


Hello, what do you mean by footprint charts ? Ladder charts ?


My personal experience regarding these :

Way too complicated to trade ( how can you concentrate on the ladder during 10 hours ? )

Big players can unload huge quantities both at bid or ask depending on their desired impact on the market so knowing how many contracts were sold at each of these levels do not provide any advantage per se ......

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  #897 (permalink)
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Hi Gabga100: Yes, footprint charts are the same as ladder charts.

Prior to the start of each trading day, I identify price zones that I feel will offer strength or resistance. I have a few scenarios in mind prior to the start of the day and am looking for the tape to print in a manner that is consistent with one of my scenario's once price gets to a level I am watching.

Right now, I am using Investor/RT's volume breakdown tool and "gut" to make the decision as to whether I will enter the trade once my level is reached. I am thinking of using the bid/ask on the price ladder to improve these decisions. I am not planning on watching the ladder for 10 hours straight. Similarly, I am not able to concentrate on the DOM for 10 hours either.

I know that a lot of successful traders are good a reading the DOM. I suppose my question is whether others feel that learning to read the price ladder is easier than learning to read the DOM? What is the advantage to reading the DOM (if any)?

Cheers!

 
  #898 (permalink)
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IMO: dont watch the DOM... rather look at the T&S (aka the tape) to figure out if to enter on your identified levels or not.. I started looking at the T&S lately(past week only), since I scalp, and I find that I am able to get 1pt every time I enter based on the SR and T&S data.. and by looking at who might be in control on the T&S, I am more confident when my gut tells me to reverse the trade since conditions changed...


Tartan View Post
Hi Gabga100: Yes, footprint charts are the same as ladder charts.

Prior to the start of each trading day, I identify price zones that I feel will offer strength or resistance. I have a few scenarios in mind prior to the start of the day and am looking for the tape to print in a manner that is consistent with one of my scenario's once price gets to a level I am watching.

Right now, I am using Investor/RT's volume breakdown tool and "gut" to make the decision as to whether I will enter the trade once my level is reached. I am thinking of using the bid/ask on the price ladder to improve these decisions. I am not planning on watching the ladder for 10 hours straight. Similarly, I am not able to concentrate on the DOM for 10 hours either.

I know that a lot of successful traders are good a reading the DOM. I suppose my question is whether others feel that learning to read the price ladder is easier than learning to read the DOM? What is the advantage to reading the DOM (if any)?

Cheers!


 
  #899 (permalink)
Trade with the flow
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Tartan View Post
Hi CP: I find your posts and your blog to be quite inspirational. Thanks for sharing your insights.

Thank you for your compliment. I find the more I share things in my own words the more I learn it and the better I do. So sharing is good for everyone.


Quoting 
I am trading 3 ES contracts and generally enter with an 8 tick stop and 4 tick initial target for my first scale. After I reach my first scale, I change my stops on the remaining two contracts to 2 ticks below breakeven so that the whole trade is then risk free.

This is actually something I'm struggling with. FT71 has recommend the first target be equal to your stop minus one tick. So with 8 tick stop first target 7 ticks. This makes sense as I believe the first contract should be profitable and not be a losing trade. If you go for 4 ticks on the first and your stop is 8 then you're risking 2 to make 1 (on this first contract). I'm undecided if that's the way to go. If you find you can get that first pt consistently then it's good. If not then that first contract can do more harm than good.


Quoting 
Based upon my journal entries, I am doing quite well at identifying scenarios before the start of trading and identifying key levels. However, I am struggling with my entries at these levels. I am frequently entering too late or too early and then not exiting quickly enough when the trade goes against me. I think I need to either develop my DOM reading skills or upgrade Investor/RT to Market Delta and use footprint charts. Or perhaps I should use Gomiís Ladder within NinjaTrader??

To me, learning to use footprint charts seems easier than learning to use the DOM. I am hearing you say that DOM reading works better for you. I would love to hear some detail on why this is the case for you.

I have used the ladder off & on for most of 2010 and my conclusion is that it's not useful. FT71 has even said this (or given strong hints). The main reason is it doesn't matter whether trades where at bid or ask.

Say I'm a big buyer. I want to buy 1000 contracts at 1183.25. I can bid 500 @ 83.25 and do games on the DOM to trick people into offering 83.50 and whenever they do I buy them instantly. So in the end I can purchase 250 on limit at 83.25 and 250 market at 83.50. In the ladder half of my buying will show as someone else's selling. My opinion on this is that it's not really useful information and it distracts me.

I find it much more useful to use a volume profile which is available with IRT and just look for P & b formations.

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To me this is part of qualifying a trade. The only way I know to get out when it doesn't go in my direction is with the DOM. and that takes a lot of time but I think it's worth it. Theoretically one could enter and if it goes say 2 contracts and comes back then one could get out breakeven and then try again. I say theoretically because FT71 can do that paying $0.50 commissions (or less) but at $4.50 it's not as easy. But this is the path I'm persuing.

The DOM tells you what's happening RIGHT NOW. The footprint & time & sales tell you what just happened. I would rate T&S more useful than footprint once you're in the trade.

But I'm no expert in this. In the past I've used wider stops like 2-3 pts but that's not what I really want to do if I'm trading a bigger size. But in the end I may come to the conclusion that wider stops are better, who knows. Scalping on the DOM with retail commissions is incredibly difficult.

Also I totally agree on the journaling. I do this too. I posted an excerpt on my blog once. I just write down thoughts, especially if I decide to scratch. I'm considering using dragon naturally speaking to make this easier. That or recording each trade with camtasia. But that takes a long time to review which is why I stopped doing that in the first place. Lots of possibilities here.

Hopefully someone else will have advice on the targets & trade management.

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  #900 (permalink)
Trade with the flow
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sysot1t View Post
IMO: dont watch the DOM... rather look at the T&S (aka the tape) to figure out if to enter on your identified levels or not.. I started looking at the T&S lately(past week only), since I scalp, and I find that I am able to get 1pt every time I enter based on the SR and T&S data.. and by looking at who might be in control on the T&S, I am more confident when my gut tells me to reverse the trade since conditions changed...

Can you tell us what you're looking for on the T&S and how you use it?

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