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cunparis journal, thoughts, and more

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  #811 (permalink)
BunnyDumb
Manitoba, Canada
 
 
Posts: 19 since Sep 2010
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how it works in real time.....the big volume and hits at the val and morning highs show many more hits on ask price...accumulation of a sell position....for some sort of a move lower.

how far will it go before they stop it?....all I know is volume/ bid ask ...will tell me what market will do next.



in this sideways action they could easily have acc a buy position on the lows for higher prices...
either way you can gain insight into what way the market will go.

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  #812 (permalink)
 cunparis 
Paris, France
 
Experience: Advanced
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BunnyDumb View Post
the ppl run markets... accumulate positions then profit take....you try to see the accumulation part and profit take along with them....use as low a risk entry as you can....sell the highs they acc at....or buy the lows that they acc at.

Your ideas work great when the market is balanced. Essentially you're selling the highs & buying the lows. The problem is when the market is in a state of either shifting imbalance (rotating but going up or down slightly) or imbalanced. In those situations fading the highs & lows doesn't work as well.

For my style of trading, today was a perfect day.

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  #813 (permalink)
 NoJob 
SouthEast - USA
 
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BD..
I understand your concept , but in your chart above you stated only guys running the market can give the buy and we as retail we have to buy the ask. That's not true, ESZ0 is not traded at a bucket shop, retailers can and do buy the bid and sell the ask all day.

Great read CP and congrats.

What is the saying.... once you reach enlightenment mountains become, well mountains again. You go through all of the questioning stages just so you can finally see it for what it is....the same thing you saw in the beginning.

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  #814 (permalink)
 cunparis 
Paris, France
 
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NoJob View Post
BD..
I understand your concept , but in your chart above you stated only guys running the market can give the buy and we as retail we have to buy the ask. That's not true, ESZ0 is not traded at a bucket shop, retailers can and do buy the bid and sell the ask all day.

About the only time a retail trader can buy the bid is if price is going down. In which case you probably don't want to be buying anyway. The market makers control the order book so if you want to buy the bid you'll be #1000 in the queue.

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  #815 (permalink)
 NoJob 
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I'll have to respectfully disagree.
Fadin top or bottoms when I have a number already in mind, I feel ok about my queue positioning most of the time. While it may be true that it has to "go against" you to some degree to get a fill, I have no problem with that. Most positions go a tick or 2 against people all the time, so their position decay could have been the fill price

I don't chase skirt. or prices. If I miss it,. I miss it, but I can't miss what I never had.

 
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  #816 (permalink)
 cunparis 
Paris, France
 
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NoJob View Post
I'll have to respectfully disagree.
Fadin top or bottoms when I have a number already in mind, I feel ok about my queue positioning most of the time. While it may be true that it has to "go against" you to some degree to get a fill, I have no problem with that. Most positions go a tick or 2 against people all the time, so their position decay could have been the fill price

I don't chase skirt. or prices. If I miss it,. I miss it, but I can't miss what I never had.

I agree with you. You give the one condition in which case you can beat the market maker and that's get in the queue very early. I do that often when I want to enter at a very specific price that I believe will be support or resistance. However there is risk involved. You enter with the market going against you so there is the risk that it doesn't stop at the price you had in mind.

Waiting for some kind of confirmation lowers this risk, but then you have to play the game and hid the bid/offer.

I can't tell you how many times I wanted out and so I put a limit order. Doesn't fill. I lower it one. Doesn't fill. I lower again. Doesn't fill. and in the end I end up getting out 3 ticks lower than I would have had I just clicked the Close button. This is their intention and this is what I'm talking about.

What's interesting is once you learn their game you can trade with the market maker and profit from them. And that's one thing I'm learning now.

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  #817 (permalink)
 NoJob 
SouthEast - USA
 
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cunparis View Post
I can't tell you how many times I wanted out and so I put a limit order. Doesn't fill. I lower it one. Doesn't fill. I lower again. Doesn't fill. and in the end I end up getting out 3 ticks lower than I would have had I just clicked the Close button. This is their intention and this is what I'm talking about.

Yeah, I was talking about entries. BD indicated we couldn't buy the bid and we had to buy the ask and the fact is anyone can buy the bid. If your in a position and you see the book flip against you, see mad hits to one side being absorbed, or see anything you don't like, then no doubt just roll out.

 
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  #818 (permalink)
BunnyDumb
Manitoba, Canada
 
 
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just monitor charts ....it repeats in all market conditions....price is led by them to accomplish what ever they would like to...what I am trying to imply is that you can pick a top a little bit easier....by volume and bid ask......watching you will learn the volumes needed and amount that gets accumulated.... it's there pretty much every day...whether trend days or not... wouldn't it be nice to know when a top will fail...and it will fail for sure......or a bottom......or a contuation trade will continue becuz in that one minute pullback bar there was an extra 6000 contracts on the bid...telling you there is a more than excelent probability of the market to make another wave up. how or when or 'IF' you use the info us up to you....how much of a stop to does one need if they short the high???...and you know the high will fail.

look at trend days ...look on fomc days...you will see the acc before a news release....it's only a theory...or is it...
when we look @ Richard Wyckoff ...he refers to 'smart money' but what does that mean...who is smart money/
..smart money bought up all the sellers in that one minute....they were waiting to transfer 5000 cars in 2 trades or tics.......... lets just say it's 10000 cars for sake of example...in one minute......if price goes agains them by 8 ticks in ES ...how much money do they have on the table.......for them to let price go against them.....what if it's 20000 cars........
the math is simpleand it makes sense
DB



cunparis View Post
Your ideas work great when the market is balanced. Essentially you're selling the highs & buying the lows. The problem is when the market is in a state of either shifting imbalance (rotating but going up or down slightly) or imbalanced. In those situations fading the highs & lows doesn't work as well.

For my style of trading, today was a perfect day.


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  #819 (permalink)
 cory 
virginia
 
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BunnyDumb View Post
how it works in real time.....the big volume and hits at the val and morning highs show many more hits on ask price...accumulation of a sell position....for some sort of a move lower.

how far will it go before they stop it?....all I know is volume/ bid ask ...will tell me what market will do next.

Attachment 24218

in this sideways action they could easily have acc a buy position on the lows for higher prices...
either way you can gain insight into what way the market will go.

what 'smart money' is doing in this case? sell some more?

 
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  #820 (permalink)
BunnyDumb
Manitoba, Canada
 
 
Posts: 19 since Sep 2010
Thanks: 3 given, 45 received


if public is sucked in to buy by mm leading higher prices.... means more hits on ask...if mm leads price down to suck in seller there invariably is more hits on bid.....only problem you have is when is it profit taking phase for mm and when is it accumulation phase.......high volume and usually high delta will stop the market....

a break out of a range...to the up side....has many buy stops for new longs and buy stops for the ppl that went short...
you will have high vol on break up out of a range...because of this..and will see it on the ask price....the mm has to absorb this in one of 2 ways.......he has already accumulated enuf buy position at lower prices... to aborb the buy orders and take it higher...or he immediately goes into sell position accumulation...you / we need to figure this out.....
generally in es market as far as my own observations go...hv and hdelta...show me when you can't go higher...on gv and hdelta.

at some point profit taking turns to accumulation of a sell position or sideways to re-acc a buy for higher prices....
the signs are there...just need practise.....maybe you see an up move bar with many hits on bid.....alargesellerthemarketmakerwantstogivetopublicbuyerssohecanbuyless...if we have high bid on up bar or up trend probably gonna get another wave up ....in green.

it takes practice...I don't know the market makers inventory problems...only he does..sometimes he'll show me.
I only need to understand when he accumulates and when he profit takes..


cory View Post
what 'smart money' is doing in this case? sell some more?

whole point is there was 2 easy to see shorts in the am for a few points....and one later...there was no big sign of buy acc in the sideways market only one bid delta of significance at 1143ish.....the market kept telling you lower..until some hv and hdelta come in again to change it again.

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