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cunparis journal, thoughts, and more

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  #661 (permalink)
 gtichauer 
Argentina
 
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cunparis View Post
Here is a breakdown between swing trading & day trading for this month:



My goal has been for daytrading to contribute to my monthly P/L. This is just a few weeks but I think I'm on the right track.

Soon I will increase my unit from 1 contract to 2.

good work cp.....congrats !!!

can u elaborate a little more on your money management rules for swing trading? I see sometimes u take some heat avg down....or maybe your plan IS to scale in at better prices.....don't know....

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  #662 (permalink)
 cunparis 
Paris, France
 
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aviat72 View Post
cunparis:

I meant ES during your real-time trading hours. The times on the charts are EST. ES can be very choppy during the day. However during the night it trends at least for 4-8 ticks. Also at night most of the activity are big players defending support/resistance levels, at least till other markets open. Unless there is major movement, ES will likely remain range bound which creates great fade the extreme trades.

Look at the Volume ladder from last night. 1060 traded a 1000+ contracts and the DOM was heavy below that. Someone was providing support. Similarly the 1069 area was being defended. I throw in the DAX and the risk currencies in the mix and it was very easy to see the trades; and required less attention.

Any reason you mention DAX instead of the Stoxx?

This is something I'm going to be observing more. I'd like to get off Stoxx and trade only ES, however from what I see Stoxx seems to give me better signals. It has more volatility & more volume. But I also see that ES is cleaner with less noise.

Here's a comparison showing my three stoxx trades this morning. Es didn't give the same signals. So for now I'm monitoring both at the same time and taking whichever setup looks the best. If I get some criteria for ES & some for Stoxx then that's almost the same as if i had all the criteria for one of them.


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  #663 (permalink)
 cunparis 
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gtichauer View Post
good work cp.....congrats !!!

can u elaborate a little more on your money management rules for swing trading? I see sometimes u take some heat avg down....or maybe your plan IS to scale in at better prices.....don't know....

Prior to the last couple months, I didn't scale in as much with swing trades because I wanted to enter a full position (4 contracts) at the beginning. However my profitable results in daytrading are causing me to rethink that.

First the volatility has increased since the flash crash. So the probability of me pinpointing a great entry is reduced. To counteract that I take a partial position depending on my confidence level. 1-2 contracts. Then if I see a second setup that looks even better AND I can improve my cost basis (scale in) then I do it.

The problem with this approach is I start with 1-2 contracts and if the trade goes in my direction right away then I never get the full position on and that's a problem because I can't scale out as much. However it should give a good profit.

My current short I entered one and then scaled in twice. Those scale ins allowed me to take 2 contracts off with 4 pts profit and then hold the third.

Really i don't have any set rules. My trading is now mostly intuition. My intuition tells me what size, when to get in, when to get out. And as I trust my intuition more my results keep improving. I guess I'm in the zone.

One final note: Scaling in is very advanced and I don't recommend it. It only works if one has a very high win rate. It's hard to get a high win rate without scaling in (at least for me) so it's a bit of a catch-22 there.

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  #664 (permalink)
 aviat72 
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ES will not give the same volume signals O/N since the volume is quiet low. What I look for is the volume ladders to find clear level of support and resistance develop. On Sunday night, 1060 absorbed 1000+ contracts with further DOM support below. On the next down move 1061.50 absorbed another 1000+ contracts. It was clear that at least on Sunday PM session 1060 would not give in.

Later in the day (Monday AM) the same process happened at 1069. ES followed the ebb and flow of the DAX between 1066 and 1069. Earlier in the European open the DAX was range bound near the close and ES too reflected that. Once DAX broke out of the range ES broke out of 1066 and it oscillated with the DAX.

I do not trade too much overnight so my observations are limited. And on Sunday night Japan was closed so there was even less action. But you have less rotational and more trending action overnight.

I just use DAX because it is the one I have subscription to. And as the largest market in Europe it will tend to be the leader.

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  #665 (permalink)
 aviat72 
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Here is another volume/delta reversal pattern on ES. This was a bit of cheating since we know that 1060 is a big-boy support level.

Decline in large lot selling interest followed by a rise in large lot buy interest (panel 1).
Change in Delta (panel 2)
Switch in direction of trade-size (buy vs sell) (panel 4)
Volume rising on the bottoming bar (gray in panel 3)

We also have the LVPB around 12:42 after a bar of selling just after 12:34.

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  #666 (permalink)
 cunparis 
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Today's Globex ES trade. I previously mentioned (yesterday) that I was working on the first target of a multiple target strategy. Yesterday during RTH I took a couple trades with 2. For some background, I had previously traded with two but I had issues I wanted to work out and dropped down to 1 so I could work them out. Basically I was taking profit on the first target too quickly and scratching the trade too quickly. That gave me a bunch of small 1-2 tick wins that fed my broker.

So now when the setup looks really good, meaning lots of confluence in the data I monitor, then I take it with 2. If I'm not sure I take it with 1 which is 1/2 size. And then I can scale in the other half at a better price.

Today went well, 3 pts during Globex which is a first for me. If I can keep this up it will have a big impact on my P/L.



In this trade I entered just after the magenta pro bar. Then after some yellow amateur bars that told me amateurs were buying and it was going to reverse so I added my other half of my position.

Notice price went up another few ticks and then professionals jumped on that higher price and knocked it down..



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  #667 (permalink)
 cunparis 
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aviat72 View Post
Here is another volume/delta reversal pattern on ES. This was a bit of cheating since we know that 1060 is a big-boy support level.

Decline in large lot selling interest followed by a rise in large lot buy interest (panel 1).
Change in Delta (panel 2)
Switch in direction of trade-size (buy vs sell) (panel 4)
Volume rising on the bottoming bar (gray in panel 3)

We also have the LVPB around 12:42 after a bar of selling just after 12:34.

I like your approach. I think it's similar to what I do although we use different tools.

What is the indicator in panel 1?

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  #668 (permalink)
 cunparis 
Paris, France
 
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12.50 pts today on daytrading and I took profit a short I added on yesterday on the swing trade for 10 pts so 22.50 today.





I made a video talking about the swing trade, I went over some day trades, and the outlook. I'm rendering it now and will post it to the blog.

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  #669 (permalink)
 David_R 
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cunparis View Post
12.50 pts today on daytrading and I took profit a short I added on yesterday on the swing trade for 10 pts so 22.50 today.





I made a video talking about the swing trade, I went over some day trades, and the outlook. I'm rendering it now and will post it to the blog.


Nice job CP!

This may be somewhat of a dumb question, but is your analysis for day trades and swing trades one in the same? In other words, if your swing analysis says down do you look for shorting opportunities in the day time frame?

By the way, I like your blog (website).

David

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  #670 (permalink)
 cunparis 
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David_R View Post
Nice job CP!

This may be somewhat of a dumb question, but is your analysis for day trades and swing trades one in the same? In other words, if your swing analysis says down do you look for shorting opportunities in the day time frame?

By the way, I like your blog (website).

David

Thanks for the compliments David. You ask a good question (no question is dumb!). The answer yes for the most part. I try to forum a bias about the most likely direction of the market over the next few days and I try to trade that direction. This is usually what I go over in my daily post (and video when I do them). There is a big advantage to this: If I'm wrong on my trade, I still have a "second chance" to scratch the trade.

However I am ready to adapt and I don't mind taking trades in either direction. I think it's really subconcious because I don't even remember which side I traded and often I'm surprised to see at the end of the day that I traded only one side, like today.

So yesterday I just pulled up and was surprised to see I only traded short:



Yesterday was a big up day. But my bias was short (I still had my short swing trade on, in fact I was adding shorts to it, fading the move up).

So really I don't have a set rule to only trade in the direction of my swing trade but I guess subconsciously that's kind of what happens.

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