But you can't know if it's the middle or the end until afterwards. Usually when I am wrong it's the middle. That's why having support on the higher timeframe is good.
Imagine on the 900 tick price is in a up cycle. on the 100 tick price is in a downcycle and you get the trapped sellers candle. Since the higher timeframe is up you take the trade. If it ends up being the middle that's ok, you get out and try again. In the cycle chart I posted if you look at 11:31 you'll see this case. On the 100 tick it looks "counter trend" but on the 900 tick it looks like "with trend".
For this method of trading it's important to have tight stops and a reward greater than your stop. This way you can be wrong a couple times and still make money.
Good questions, thanks for asking them. it's always good to discuss this as there's really no right or wrong. just what works for each person.
Tonight in the shower I thought about my evoluation as a trader over the past 2 years:
- first start was jack hershey / spydertrader's FFT method. you basically enter counter-trend on a turning point. easy to do in hindsight but hard to do in realtime without knowing order flow
- then I got into the cycle method from emini watch. that led to my first run of profitability (2 months for daytrading, and to this day for swing trading). stops were around $200 on ES which is manageable (for daytrading, swing trading it's much more).
- I wanted to explore some other methods so I tried System 2 which is really similar to the Ross Hook. That worked for me, I was profitable, but the stop was around $300 sometimes more. A bit too much for me. You get several losing days and then one big winner.
- I tried Jeff's All You Need. same problem. $300 stop on CL and my winners were around $200. Got my stop down to $200 but still breakeven
- Went back to System 2 but this time studying Joe Ross & the Ross Hook. I found Ross's secret: Instead of taking the breakout he suggests entering early! He calls it TTE and/or Slaughterhouse entry. This basically amounted to trading turning points at the extreme of a pullback, which is the same as my cycle method. It seems trading breakouts really doesn't work and I only saw two ways to trade: turning points and breakouts.
- Found out about GOMI's ladder and started learning about order flow. I was using a bit of order flow with the cycle method ,that's what better momentum & my momentum do. But I wanted a more fine-grained way to analyze the order flow so that I could get out quicker and have bigger runners. I also started studying market profile.
- This also coincided with me going full time and so my priorities changed quite a bit. I had previously focused on swing trading with day trading on the side. Now I put the swing trading on a temporary hold (not comfortable with $2000 risks) while I work on the day trading. Once day trading provides a consistent income I will pick up the swing trading again. I actually think swing trading is easier. It's just riskier.
And voilà. Here I am. I'm pretty happy with cycles & order flow now so I don't have any more plans to switch around.
What's your story? Where di dyou start and where are you now? And most importantly where do you want to be??
The following 8 users say Thank You to cunparis for this post:
Yes. The ladder was always for an entry timing & confirmation. Often with cycles I'd enter and get stopped out and then later on there would be the real bottom. The sinewave indicator isn't perfect. It's often early or late. This is where the ladder came in. It was the missing piece of the puzzle for me.
Now I have to be completely honest: I'm weaning myself off the cycle indicator because I can see the cycles with it. But that only came after 1 year of cycle trading. I just realized that. It was one year ago that I started using cycles. Wow. I still highly recommend the cycle method for those who are looking for a trading methodology.
I prefer the volume to be the side that has been moving up price. It represents breakout traders and late-comers (same thing really as breakout traders are late-comers). And then it hits supply/demand and is stopped. Then the other side takes over for a couple price levels.
so you may see
the ladder can be used for anything. it just shows what the aggressive traders are doing and if they're successful. applies to everything. but looking at it all day will give you a headache.
Last edited by cunparis; March 11th, 2010 at 11:38 PM.
Reason: Had HVC I meant HVN
The following 3 users say Thank You to cunparis for this post:
You need two charts, one with template GOM Record which has record = true and is only used for recording, and another chart with template GOM which has record = false and is used for charting. I keep them separate so that i can modify my chart settings as I like without interrupting the recording.
i got all that saved to my workspace so when I load ninja I get 8 charts pop up automatically.
The following user says Thank You to cunparis for this post:
Retail sales were much higher than expected, markets had already been gapping up but now moving up even more. This will bring in the breakout traders. How we close will be really important. If we close down that will be pretty bearish.