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cunparis journal, thoughts, and more

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  #571 (permalink)
 gtichauer 
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cunparis View Post
This is a technique I'm working on. I call it "working the cycles".

Basically if price goes against me after my first target is hit but I still have one contract on, if the setup is still valid and I get a timing entry then I add a contract to my position. I did this 3 times. Last contract I got out at cost (the new averaged cost) + 1 but it is technically a small loss since depending on how you look at it. In any case the total is 2.75 pts. Hit my goal and now relaxing on sim.



entries here were based solely on Prof / Amateur indicator?

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  #572 (permalink)
 cunparis 
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gtichauer View Post
Hope u took profits early today !!!

I took half of that off on Tuesday's close, the other half stopped out breakeven yesterday.

Yesterday was an interesting day. I'm still analyzing it but but the bulls looked strong yet the volume was low. I see increasing volume on the way down and decreasing volume on the way up.

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  #573 (permalink)
 cunparis 
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gtichauer View Post
entries here were based solely on Prof / Amateur indicator?

That's just the ninja chart with my trade markers. My entries are based on my tradestation charts, with a little bit of POT from ninja, and also the volume ladder from Market Delta.

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  #574 (permalink)
 cunparis 
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Man this week was tough. I had a nice profit on a short but I accidently left a target on after I closed it out. The result is I went long at 90 2 contracts at the open. And I was bearish! Price went down to 85 before I realized it. I didn't want to panic so I held. Price went to 78. So then I studied everything and it told me that we'd probably hit 90 but I was still bearish. At 87 I saw resistance as price struggled so I bailed for a loss of $300. Lesson learned - Always make sure you don't have any open positions and/or active orders!!!

I made $10 this week. Didn't trade much. it was a bit frustrating cause I knew what was going to happen but just managed to mess it up. Stayed in some too long, got out of a few too early. Chalk it up to experience and consider myself lucky that I made $10 while learning it.

Hope you guys did ok this week. IMHO this is the most challenging market condition I've seen in a long time. Some of the other traders I know are confused as well. All that hints to me that we may have something major in the pipes. I don't know if it'll be a break below 1050 or a push to 1150 but I think something is in the works. So much trade & volatility that one side will be wrong and forced to exit and the move could be explosive..

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  #575 (permalink)
 cunparis 
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PS: I'm hoping to release a beta version of the Pro Paintbar this weekend. I'm setting up a new VM with a virgin ninja for testing. I'm having problems packaging another indicator so I got to track it all down..

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  #576 (permalink)
 cunparis 
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Here's the trades I did. I'm not saying these are mistakes, no one can see the future:

- covered 5 contracts at 93 just 30 minutes before price dropped to 78. that would have been $3750. I covered because my entry was not good enough to give me room in case the news was bullish (even though I was sure it was bearish as I wrote in my blog)

- went long at 90 accidently

Crazy!


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  #577 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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cunparis View Post
Hope you guys did ok this week. IMHO this is the most challenging market condition I've seen in a long time. Some of the other traders I know are confused as well. All that hints to me that we may have something major in the pipes. I don't know if it'll be a break below 1050 or a push to 1150 but I think something is in the works. So much trade & volatility that one side will be wrong and forced to exit and the move could be explosive..

I agree with you. I think we are at a crossroads both economically and politically. If history is any indicator, we are on the exact same path we were back in the late 20's and early 30's. We had similar economic issues and a political establishment that made the kind of policy moves that the current political party is making. The results were disastrous.

Lots of people are saying "this time its different". I hope so. But economics do not obey policy. I fear we are on the verge of another strong bear market and the last year was simply a bull rally in what could be an extended bear market.

I guess we we will see but I do agree we are on the verge of something big.

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  #578 (permalink)
 rassi 
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cunparis View Post
Man this week was tough. I had a nice profit on a short but I accidently left a target on after I closed it out. The result is I went long at 90 2 contracts at the open. And I was bearish! Price went down to 85 before I realized it. I didn't want to panic so I held. Price went to 78. So then I studied everything and it told me that we'd probably hit 90 but I was still bearish. At 87 I saw resistance as price struggled so I bailed for a loss of $300. Lesson learned - Always make sure you don't have any open positions and/or active orders!!!

I made $10 this week. Didn't trade much. it was a bit frustrating cause I knew what was going to happen but just managed to mess it up. Stayed in some too long, got out of a few too early. Chalk it up to experience and consider myself lucky that I made $10 while learning it.

Hope you guys did ok this week. IMHO this is the most challenging market condition I've seen in a long time. Some of the other traders I know are confused as well. All that hints to me that we may have something major in the pipes. I don't know if it'll be a break below 1050 or a push to 1150 but I think something is in the works. So much trade & volatility that one side will be wrong and forced to exit and the move could be explosive..

Hey CP yeah this was a tough week, mainly due to news events and longer term traders being in control of the market imho. As i posted somewhere else on the site last week the es is going to 1000.

jimbo

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  #579 (permalink)
 cunparis 
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rassi View Post
Hey CP yeah this was a tough week, mainly due to news events and longer term traders being in control of the market imho. As i posted somewhere else on the site last week the es is going to 1000.

I'm preparing my weekly outlook right now. My predictive ability is very very short term so I really don't know what's going to happen right now. My guess is we test 1051 and if that fails 1036 is the next logical target and if that breaks I haven't even thought about it. Upside targets depend on us cracking the resistance around 1108. I just take it one day at a time though.

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  #580 (permalink)
 rassi 
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cunparis View Post
I'm preparing my weekly outlook right now. My predictive ability is very very short term so I really don't know what's going to happen right now. My guess is we test 1051 and if that fails 1036 is the next logical target and if that breaks I haven't even thought about it. Upside targets depend on us cracking the resistance around 1108. I just take it one day at a time though.

My outlook was based on weekly and daily charts. Always use them for big picture analysis.

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