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cunparis journal, thoughts, and more
Started:March 8th, 2010 (11:56 PM) by cunparis Views / Replies:86,488 / 905
Last Reply:December 3rd, 2010 (11:23 AM) Attachments:370

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cunparis journal, thoughts, and more

Old March 11th, 2010, 11:55 AM   #41 (permalink)
Trade with the flow
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Dragon View Post
WTG. Are you waiting for the bottom delta to change from negative to positive? What else do you see to confirm your trade entry?

Not just the delta going positive I want to see a HVN near the bottom and get reversed. That says that the aggressive sellers hit a pocket of demand. I also look for this demand on the DOM. And finally I am watching time & sales looking for a bunch of buy orders coming in to jump in.

With crude it happens really fast, those bars last less than 30 seconds so it's not easy to time it right. if I miss it I usually put in a limit to get in on a little pullback. sometimes just a couple ticks better entry makes a huge difference, gives more room for the stop. sometimes it moves so fast I end up chasing a bit without realizing it.

Hope that helps.

     
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Old March 11th, 2010, 11:58 AM   #42 (permalink)
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Why didn't this trade work? What did I do wrong?

Attached Thumbnails
cunparis journal, thoughts, and more-test-cl-why-didn-t-one-work.jpg  
     

Old March 11th, 2010, 12:07 PM   #43 (permalink)
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In this one I hit my first & second targets so now stop is at BE + 1 and I'm in a no stress trade.

this is the 2nd attempt from the previous trade which was stopped out.

ok I moved my 3rd target up to the VWAP and now I'm out (not shown)

+50 ticks on that one.

Attached Thumbnails
cunparis journal, thoughts, and more-cl-3rd-target-still-open-stop-.png  
     
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Old March 11th, 2010, 12:55 PM   #44 (permalink)
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great scalp on this one +24

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cunparis journal, thoughts, and more-cl-almost-perfect-scalp.png  
     

Old March 11th, 2010, 01:02 PM   #45 (permalink)
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Futures Edge on FIO

Are you a NinjaTrader user?

 
My testing went well this afternoon (US morning session). I finished breakeven on the dax this morning and +$680 on the CL trades this afternoon. If I can eliminate a few mistakes (like the one I posted above) and cut some losers shorter then I think I'll have something.

the p/l doesn't include two euro trades that were losses, I keep them separate because those are a different method. -$262 on euro. Specifically this is why I'm working on modify the method. I think I could have gotten out a lot quicker on the those euro trades and also a 3rd setup didn't meet my existing rules but it would have hit my targets. so lots of work to do on the trading plan.

in the trade list I have two strategies there: OF Test 3T is a 3 target strategy that I use when I have a nice setup on the highest timeframe (err.. did I say "timeframe"??? we didn't finish that discussion). Target is +10 +20 +30 but I move them a bit depending on pivots and the order flow. OF Test Scalp is a one target strategy (+10) I use for a quick scalp, mainly a setup on a smaller timeframe. I scale out of that one too, basically I take profits if price stalls and I tighten my stop.

Attached Thumbnails
cunparis journal, thoughts, and more-cl-dax-pl.png   cunparis journal, thoughts, and more-cl-dax-trades.png  
     

Old March 11th, 2010, 01:08 PM   #46 (permalink)
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cunparis View Post
Why didn't this trade work? What did I do wrong?


What was the motivation for shorting ? do not see many "trapped" or any reversal !

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You do not see things how they are, you see things how you are.
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Old March 11th, 2010, 01:25 PM   #47 (permalink)
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gabga100 View Post
Hey ! Nice Comments ! Merci !

This methodology seems quite counter-trend ..... it appears to me that the trades that suceed the better for you is when there is a distinctive trend ( even if I know you like to call it illusion :-) and that you go against it due to large imbalance on the wick of the candle ..... (reversal)

I think we'd have to define countertrend. I can pull up a weekly/daily/hourly/minute chart to show that all my trades are with the trend.

I prefer to call them "market turns" or "turning points". I've always traded turning points. One of the first methods I did was shorting stocks that went up too high. I'm still trading that one today btw.

I try to line up these trades with the cycle of the higher timeframe. So I don't consider them counter trend. in the market cycle method, I list two specific setups and both are with the cycle of the higher timeframe (although when the higher timeframe cycle goes from up to down or down to up, many would call that counter trend but as I said there is a higher higher timeframe - I use 5 in my cycle trading).

I'm now freeing myself up a little bit in that I will scalp against the higher timeframe cycle but that's just for 10 ticks and no more. The big winners come from catching a turning point on the higher timeframe and timing it with the smaller timeframe. I give a lot of details about this along with lots of examples in the market cycles thread.


Quoting 
e.g. never buy on setups that seem to be in a choppy area .or for example a big down bar with lot of people buying at the end of the wick in a downtrend.....what do you think ?

Define chop. Seriously, one thing I'd like to explore in this thread is all these definitions and rules such as don't trade in chop. One man's chop is another man's trend. Just drop down to 10 tick bars and you'll see nice cycles in the chop. If there is a period of consolidation where price is cycling from highs to lows, then that's a great place to scalp.

I'm attaching an example. at 11:27 on the higher timeframe, one would probably call this chop. but if you drop down to the lowest timeframe you can see there are very tradeable cycles in there. I just tried to make a ninja 100tick chart to show my trades but ninja is not responding. i'm getting fed up with it.

I don't understand the 2nd part of the quote. if we're in a downtrend.. err.. if price is moving down and the HVN is at the bottom and it gets reversed and I see buyers coming in lifting the offers then I'm in, but only if there is a setup on my other charts.

I think I crashed Ninja. Ridiculous. All I did was click to open a new chart. I'm going to do the trial of Market Delta.

Attached Thumbnails
cunparis journal, thoughts, and more-cl-chop-cycles.png  

Last edited by cunparis; March 11th, 2010 at 01:48 PM.
     
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Old March 11th, 2010, 01:35 PM   #48 (permalink)
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here's a ninja chart 100 tick.

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Old March 11th, 2010, 01:37 PM   #49 (permalink)
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gabga100 View Post
What was the motivation for shorting ? do not see many "trapped" or any reversal !

Exactly. there wasn't any reason to short there. I'm not sure what I was thinking. Need more practice.

     

Old March 11th, 2010, 03:40 PM   #50 (permalink)
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Define chop. Seriously, one thing I'd like to explore in this thread is all these definitions and rules such as don't trade in chop. One man's chop is another man's trend. Just drop down to 10 tick bars and you'll see nice cycles in the chop. If there is a period of consolidation where price is cycling from highs to lows, then that's a great place to scalp.


Chop is always defined in function of the timeframe you are observing ( and trading ).... so let's say the slope of the mid of your ladder bars .... ( lets define it as succession of lowest lows or highest highs on the observed timeframe)



I don't understand the 2nd part of the quote. if we're in a downtrend.. err.. if price is moving down and the HVN is at the bottom and it gets reversed and I see buyers coming in lifting the offers then I'm in, but only if there is a setup on my other charts.

Let' say that you can observe the same trapped sellers candle setup ....but

1) you can observe it at the end of a down trend ....nice to trade
2) you can observe it in the middle or end of up trend ....dangerous

You know what you know but you do not know what you do not know.
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In life you do what you want but you do not want what you want.
     
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