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cunparis journal, thoughts, and more
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cunparis journal, thoughts, and more

  #471 (permalink)
Trade with the flow
Paris, France
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Market Delta & Ninjatrader
Favorite Futures: ES
 
cunparis's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,563 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,157 given, 2,032 received

I posted a video of the weekly review. I like the video format a lot better, let me know what you think.

ES Weekly Review & Outlook

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  #472 (permalink)
Elite Member
Argentina
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja
Broker/Data: Zen Fire / IB
Favorite Futures: ES, TF, 6E, CL
 
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cunparis View Post

There is a slight catch in your idea in that the third contract isn't "free". It alters the R:R for your trade because it makes your stop outs cost 50% more (stopping out 3 instead of 2). That's the thing to watch out for because if the 3rd contract doesn't hit its target enough then the impact on the strategy will be negative. I've documented this myself by keeping stats on a 3rd contract and I've found it's not always better. Depends on the market and if you do it at a really good S/R level (like you said).

I agree on part....I believe that is relative.....depends on which is your actual trading plan....I'm NOT saying to add one contract to swing trade....I am saying that IF you are already trading a third contract for an extended target THEN for certain trades ONLY (where the swing trade may have higher probability) u should be flexible and make the decision to go for more on the third target. IF not u should stick to your plan for the third (or last) contract u have.
Also this does not imply that u will leave your third contract to ALL or NONE situation.....u could use trail stops even when going for a swing.....maybe establishing a clear SWING target and always analyzing how much to risk (trailing stop) vs potential reward....maybe also having a re-entry technique in your trading for this swing contract if u do not want to have big trailing stops.

The way I think about it is to have couple of contracts for paying the bills, and one to make a bigger difference....of course the % winners on the third is going to be less....but with volatility and CL moving 2-3 $ a day opportunity is there.....

I think the key here is accurately identifying pivots on higher timeframes...and as I said...it may take several tries.....patience and persistance are key....

GT
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  #473 (permalink)
Trade with the flow
Paris, France
 
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gtichauer View Post
The way I think about it is to have couple of contracts for paying the bills, and one to make a bigger difference....of course the % winners on the third is going to be less....but with volatility and CL moving 2-3 $ a day opportunity is there.....

We're in total agreement there. For high volatility markets such as CL, Euro, DAX then the runner makes sense and it's even mandatory to cover the small losses from the volatility.

For ES a 50 tick runner is really rare so it's a different story. Traders tend to go for a little but do it with size.

 
  #474 (permalink)
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Argentina
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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cunparis View Post
We're in total agreement there. For high volatility markets such as CL, Euro, DAX then the runner makes sense and it's even mandatory to cover the small losses from the volatility.

For ES a 50 tick runner is really rare so it's a different story. Traders tend to go for a little but do it with size.

I agree the approach might change depending on volatility and range opportunity, it ends being subjective to personal risk tolerance and expectations.

Let us know what approach u decide to go for and outcomes.....

GT
 
  #475 (permalink)
Trade with the flow
Paris, France
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
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After studying my trades & charts this weekend I decided a few things:

- I want to have tighter stops and not scale in
- I want to go for more than +4 & +8 ticks on ES
- I want to give priority to the cycle charts over the ladder setup (look at ladder only if there's a cycle setup)

Since that involved changing several things I traded on sim today. Too bad I didn't do real cause I traded well.

+ 280 Euros on FESX (not counting commissions)

+$518 ES (after commissions)

I'm not sure today is a valid test because of the increased volatility so will keep testing.

PS: Forgot IB trades so +$220..

Attached Thumbnails
cunparis journal, thoughts, and more-es-pl.png   cunparis journal, thoughts, and more-es-trade-list.png   cunparis journal, thoughts, and more-es-trades.png   cunparis journal, thoughts, and more-ib-trades.png  
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  #476 (permalink)
Trade with the flow
Paris, France
 
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One more on NT and one more on IB.

Tomorrow will be on sim as I continue being aggressive and building confidence. Wednesday morning we're leaving for a long weekend at the beach so no need to do any real money before leaving (I'd be bummed during our trip if I lost money). If all goes well tomorrow on sim then real money when I get back.

Attached Thumbnails
cunparis journal, thoughts, and more-ib-trades.png   cunparis journal, thoughts, and more-es-trade-list.png   cunparis journal, thoughts, and more-tradelog.png  
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  #477 (permalink)
Trade with the flow
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I'm working on a new indicator and this one looks promising.

Red = look for a short setup
Blue = look for a long setup

You cannot take these blindly. They should be taken into context and acted upon when other criteria supports the trade.

I like to think of it as more of a signal of when to look for a trade rather than a signal to enter or exit.

I'm going to be releasing some beta versions of my indicators for ninjatrader in a few weeks. In the meantime I'd love to have some feedback. If you would like to see a chart for a particular day just let me know (in 2010 cause Tradestation only has 6 months of tick data and I haven't programmed them for ninja yet).

First chart is yesterday.

Second chart is the day before.

As an example of how to use the signal, you may look for a HH or a LL to confirm the signal or you may look for a breakout of a swing pivot, look for a double top or bottom, 1-2-3 high or low, etc..

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cunparis journal, thoughts, and more-5-11-2010-2-27-41-pm.png   cunparis journal, thoughts, and more-5-11-2010-2-33-28-pm.png  
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  #478 (permalink)
Elite Member
Pleasant Hill, CA
 
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cunparis View Post
I'm working on a new indicator and this one looks promising.

Red = look for a short setup
Blue = look for a long setup

You cannot take these blindly. They should be taken into context and acted upon when other criteria supports the trade.

I like to think of it as more of a signal of when to look for a trade rather than a signal to enter or exit.

I'm going to be releasing some beta versions of my indicators for ninjatrader in a few weeks. In the meantime I'd love to have some feedback. If you would like to see a chart for a particular day just let me know (in 2010 cause Tradestation only has 6 months of tick data and I haven't programmed them for ninja yet).

First chart is yesterday.

Second chart is the day before.

As an example of how to use the signal, you may look for a HH or a LL to confirm the signal or you may look for a breakout of a swing pivot, look for a double top or bottom, 1-2-3 high or low, etc..


Looks very interesting. Is it based upon volume or tick speed like your POT indicator? Looking forward to learn more about it.

 
  #479 (permalink)
Trade with the flow
Paris, France
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Market Delta & Ninjatrader
Favorite Futures: ES
 
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Posts: 2,563 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,157 given, 2,032 received


chipotlebop View Post
Looks very interesting. Is it based upon volume or tick speed like your POT indicator? Looking forward to learn more about it.

Based entirely on volume. I'm still doing some testing and I hope to have some beta versions available in a few weeks.

I'm leaving on vacation tomorrow morning and will be back Sunday evening.

Gotta finish my packing!

Good luck to everyone in your trading this week. I got ran over pretty hard today. -$2440. Fortunately I had the sense to trade on simulator since the crash. I'm just not used to this volatility and bipolar trend days.

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  #480 (permalink)
Elite Member
Arizona
 
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Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Mirus/Zen-Fire
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 154 since Jun 2009
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Have fun on your vacation!

Mahlon


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