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cunparis journal, thoughts, and more
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cunparis journal, thoughts, and more

  #411 (permalink)
Trade with the flow
Paris, France
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Market Delta & Ninjatrader
Favorite Futures: ES
 
cunparis's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,563 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,157 given, 2,030 received


cunparis View Post
Cycle charts - I still see strength. I think we're due for a pullback but the pros will probably buy it again and keep the rally going. Next target is 1240.

Got the pullback but it really surprised the heck out of me. Price had been in a tight range and I had just about given up trading it when it broke down.

The 45min called it perfectly.

Good thing it broke down on Tuesday. On Friday we'll find out if the commercials were buying. We'll actually know before then because if they're buying it should bounce up before Friday..

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  #412 (permalink)
Market Wizard
virginia
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ninja
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cunparis View Post
The quest for profitability.

...

Also one more thing.. today I traded DAX & FESX without the sine wave & better momentum. And I did just fine. In fact less information meant less thinking and more reacting. I liked it.

ditch the sine wave, it makes you see thing.

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  #413 (permalink)
Trade with the flow
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cory View Post
ditch the sine wave, it makes you see thing.

Like tops & bottoms?

I know you guys think I'm wacky.. like I'm believing in gann fans and moon cycles... but sometimes the sine wave catches the turns perfectly. and when it doesn't there is usually a reason and once you learn to use it you get as much info when it doesn't catch it perfectly as when it does.

Check out the 45min chart I posted.

In any case, it works well for ES and not as well for more volatile markets like dax & crude..

 
  #414 (permalink)
Elite Member
Pleasant Hill, CA
 
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Posts: 252 since Jan 2010
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Good work with your discipline, staying on the sim, optimizing your strategy, never giving up. Will your strategy adapt to different behaviors of the market? If you're going to cash, I would recommend a cash trial period.

Keeping it simple seems to work better for me too.

 
  #415 (permalink)
Trade with the flow
Paris, France
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
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Posts: 2,563 since Jun 2009
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chipotlebop View Post
Good work with your discipline, staying on the sim, optimizing your strategy, never giving up. Will your strategy adapt to different behaviors of the market? If you're going to cash, I would recommend a cash trial period.

Keeping it simple seems to work better for me too.

Thanks. I love sim but I can honestly say I don't feel any different than I do with real money. The adreneline gets going on sim too.

For different behaviors of the market.. I'll guess we'll see over the next few weeks. I don't see why it wouldn't. The most important thing for me is not to fade a strong move. instead I look to fade a pullback. That has made a huge difference. So I'm learning to adapt to trading imbalanced vs. balanced. I learned that from L2ST.

What's a cash trial period? I plan to monitor my stats for the past 5 days and if they drop down (PF < 2 mainly) then I'll go back to sim.

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  #416 (permalink)
Trade with the flow
Paris, France
 
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Posts: 2,563 since Jun 2009
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I went long on a swing trade setup. I didn't get the best entry because my market delta froze during the big selloff. But the risk reward is looking really good. Stop under the double bottom.

I did a half position because of the news volatility (Greece, Spain downgrade, and FOMC statement later today).

LONG ES 1183.25

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  #417 (permalink)
Trade with the flow
Paris, France
 
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Posts: 2,563 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,157 given, 2,030 received

Took 2.75 profit on half and moved stop to 1180.50 for a no risk trade. This might get taken out with the FOMC news, if it does i'll just look for a re-entry..

 
  #418 (permalink)
Trade with the flow
Paris, France
 
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Posts: 2,563 since Jun 2009
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Great day on the dax. I'm going for the bigger moves and it's working. Before I was taking 10-15 trades. Today I took only 2. Takes a lot of patience but it's paying off.

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Trading going well with ES but commissions are becoming an issue. The last few days have been very tight range (except for the big move yesterday but of course I missed that). As a result I took a lot of small wins & scratch trades on ES.

My excel didn't include commissions for the past 5-6 days. i updated it tonight with commissions. I just forgot to check the commissions box in ninja. It did cut my ES profits in half a couple days. Need to be more selective and get better trades..

Last 5 days P/L. The PF isn't correct because of the point value differences. In fact almost all the stats are incorrect now that I think about it. For example a couple great euro trades would yield 0.0050 which is nothing compared to one tick on ES (1.00). So I have to think about how to track this. I guess I should track each instrument separately but that's more work.


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Hopefully ES volatility will pick up so that I can get some better trades.

If anyone has an indicator that detects divergences, I'm looking for one. Please let me know.

Oh and that reminds me, I got my 800th "Thanks". So I'm glad to know people are benefiting from my posts. And I'd like to thank all of you for reading especially those participating.

And finally the swing trade is still open and looking good although I hoped for a stronger finish. My stop is near the value area low so hopefully that will not be tested.

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  #419 (permalink)
Trade with the flow
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Divergence discussion here:

https://futures.io/ninjatrader-programming/3618-divergence-detection-algorithm.html#post37155

 
  #420 (permalink)
Elite Member
Pleasant Hill, CA
 
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Posts: 252 since Jan 2010
Thanks: 369 given, 331 received


Good work on the DAX. The ES internals range bound bullish. YM - GOM CD bearish. The indexes have been stubborn which is why I'm not trading them now. Seems to me, something is going on internally. Churning? Not sure. Looking forward to return of volatility to the indexes... oh one day.


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