I went short on a small swing trade at 1195. I'm attaching the setup which was a cyclical turning point in multiple timeframes, notably an END of trend on the middle timeframe. The cyclical turn on the highest timeframe was a bit early, that's the challenge with this indicator, but the volume patterns and turning point oscillator helped me to wait until the right moment.
My confidence level isn't that high for this trade so I did a smaller size, it's likely that we'll test 1200 tomorrow but I do expect a move down overnight.
I'm going to be trying some more swing trades on ES.
That depends if the losses are due to my mistakes or due to chance. Also I had one missed trade that would have been +1.5 pts so that would have paid 3x my commissions. on the loss in hindsight I could have gotten out breakeven but I wasn't watching it closely, so that's another $75.
So for now I truly believe that I am the biggest hinderance to profitability, not commissions. If I was executing mechanically and/or perfectly then I would be more concerned about commissions.
If I change the R:R I will change the win rate and that could have negative effects. This is a really simple setup so I'm still experimenting.
Thanks for the input, you got me thinking about commissions in the first place and I like your questions.
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Dax was very slow today. I've never seen it so slow. It was eerie. I ended up -37 euros. It just wouldn't move when I entered and was so illiquid that a 10 lot trade would move it several ticks.
It did give me time to brainstorm and work on some of my indicators. I want to stress that these are not to give market signals but rather to help visualize the market data to make more informed trading decisions.
I brainstorm and just try different ideas. Most are worthless but every once in a while I get something interesting. Like this one.
Update on the swing trade. Market gapped up perhaps due to earnings I don't know. It actually came back to 1195 and I debating getting out at breakeven but I hadn't see any signs of strength on the dax at the time so I held.
We are testing 1200 and that was expected. If the market doesn't prove me right real soon I'll be looking to get out with a minimal loss.
+17 ticks on CL today for $140 after commissions. It was a difficult day. I'll explain a bit. In the l2st room they decided to build up a strategy from the ground up. So he is starting with scalping based on fading moves outside of a trading range or taking the pullbacks on a move outside of the range. That's the two main setups. This is done on a 200 volume CL chart.
There is one thing i don't like: I'm used to trading with multiple timeframes, and he does have a 1000v chart. But for the current plan we're scalping trading ranges on the smaller timeframe. I find myself preferring to take a trade when there is a setup on both timeframes. I like confluence. This is going to come but for now we get more pratice on the smaller timeframe. When going for the bigger setups you sometimes have to take 2-3 shots. So that requires scalping skills, assuming one is to use small stop. Normally on bigger setups we could just use a bigger stop but I think the tight stop makes sense.
So the current focus is just on learning to identify these trading ranges and the setups and practice executing them. I find it difficult but it is good practice. The fact that I've been slightly profitable is also encouraging. In March I was pretty much breakeven but commissions killed me. Since Friday I'm +230 on crude including commissions. So I'm making progress.
I find myself being too selective and not being aggressive enough on my entries. With a 6 tick stop (I often move it to 5 ticks), the entry is critical and to get the right entry based on the ladder you have to be very quick. So I am going to work on taking more trades because I need more practice, even if it has a temporary impact on my PL. I'm not ready to trade this with real money so I should be more concerned about trading all the setups rather than my PL.
I think it works much better on the DAX which is a bit slower than crude. Crude is so wild. But if I can trade crude then I can trade the dax so the practice is good.
Meanwhile I am taking a few trades on ES. I have one open so I can't put the ES PL just yet. ES is slower so I can keep an eye on it. So far the ES trading stats are slightly better but less money.
The swing trade is still open. I see lots of professionals fading this move up. I had a chance to get out at -4 ticks which in hindsight would have been better so that I could re-enter around 1200. But since I'd be entering at 1200 had I done that I'm staying patient. I expected the test of 1200 so let's see if it gets rejected. We're spending a lot of time there and that's not a good sign.
I hope to post some examples of the Crude setups soon.
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Markets were a bit slow today so I didn't get a lot of trades. Came out with a little bit of money.
I went to june crude today, as it had more volume by the open. but may ended up catching up with it. I think trading was better on may. next time I'll wait until the day after the new contract has higher volume.
Yesterday's ES performance was pretty bad and a reminder to me not to fight a trend day. I was trading a new setup mechanically and this is the first day I ran into this. So I will have to add some discretion to not go against a big move.
Swing trade still open. Tomorrow is options expiration so things could get interesting.
Oh I almost forgot. I have added the euro as a backup market to the dax. The dax has been slowing down around 10:30 european time and by 11am it's really slow. So when that happens I'll be looking for trades with the euro. Also at 8am NY time I'll be looking at the euro until the crude pit session starts at 9am. I traded the euro a lot last year and I really like it.
I haven't posted any trades because I'm still learning the l2st setups but now that I'm starting to do ok with them I thought I'd post a couple trades. My trades are based on several charts so I'm just posting my smaller timeframe. The actual entry is from the ladder but it's the same technique that I've been using for a while now.
Let me know if you have comments or suggestions. if you want to see more trades or a video or what. I've been recording some of my trading so that I can watch it back. The main thing I'm working on is some of the ladder setups go so fast I don't have time to decide to enter and then get my entry. so I'm studying the video and it has been helpful so far.
Tell Us more about this L2st room ! how the unfair low/high is calculated ? I must have seen a video of a kid explaining market auction theory but do not recall on which post exactly ..... it must be related somehow ....
You know what you know but you do not know what you do not know.
You do not see things how they are, you see things how you are.
In life you do what you want but you do not want what you want.
I'm reserving judgement about the l2st room because I'm not sure I will continue. I highly recommend their free webinars. They're going to require all new room members to purchase some training which in my opinion is expensive so that will put some people off as the cost to get into the room will likely be very high ($300/month + $300 in training = $600 for the first month).
I've learned a lot from them but also I was very new to order flow and footprint etc. So for me it was a good deal. However, I feel like I just need to practice the methods on my own and I'm not sure I need to pay $300/month for that. I actually find the room distracting to my trading when he's talking about something other than the current price/order flow, which unfortunately is a majority of the time.
He started a new format last week where he trades live and shows his dom most of the time but he has had a data problem with market delta & transact (not just him, it's a known problem) so he hasn't taken many trades. So far he's profitable. So I hope to see more of that. Very few rooms show their doms and trade a real $ account.
So that's pretty much my summary so far.
The unfair high & low are not calculated, you eyeball it and that's one of the hardest parts. Sometimes it's obvious and sometimes it's not. He says to stick to the obvious trades which is good advice for someone learning it. I often have the same ones he does but sometimes I completely mess it up, and that could lead to taking trades in a bad location.
He's not the kid explaining auction market theory, that's Julian.
I'll write more about the setups once I get some more practice.
PS: last month I was almost breakeven without commissions and negative with commissions. This month I'm doing much better and I attribute a lot of that to what I learned from L2ST. That and a lot of hard work, practice, reading, and exchanging ideas with others here at futures.io (formerly BMT).