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cunparis journal, thoughts, and more

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  #241 (permalink)
 cunparis 
Paris, France
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Market Delta & Ninjatrader
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Trying a short on ES at 1167.75.

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  #242 (permalink)
 cunparis 
Paris, France
 
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It's rare to get the cycles all lining up for a short but when it happens and is backed by volume & order flow then it usually makes for a nice move. I don't show the 45min but it's near a new down cycle as well.

I circled some of the professional activity which I interpret as selling.

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  #243 (permalink)
 rassi 
the congo
 
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Hi CP, how are you finding the L2ST room ? Are you still using it?

Many thanks.

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  #244 (permalink)
 cunparis 
Paris, France
 
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rassi View Post
Hi CP, how are you finding the L2ST room ? Are you still using it?

Many thanks.

I like the room a lot. The guy who does the morning session (Kam) is very knowledgeable and shares a lot of information. I don't have much experience with the guy who does the afternoon (Brian). It's rather expensive so I'm not sure I'll stay in the room for a long time but for now I'm still learning. The room is educational, he doesn't call trades but he does talk about good places to get long or short. Sometimes I find myself taking the opposite side of his suggestions.

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  #245 (permalink)
 cunparis 
Paris, France
 
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cunparis View Post
Trying a short on ES at 1167.75.

Exit at +1 tick. +$30.80 after commissions.

My tradestation crashed and I can't see my tick charts and from the Market Delta chart we're in a small value area right at 1167.75. The 45min sine cross happened but the market is lingering right under resistance. My experience is that when it does this it will usually retest the highs and often break out. The 135min is about to go into an up cycle. On my daily charts I do not see a lot of evidence for professional selling. So with all that into consideration it's best to get out and study it some more and wait for some more signs.

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  #246 (permalink)
 cunparis 
Paris, France
 
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Got beat up on CL pretty bad. I just got done going over the trades, both finding the trade entries on my cycle charts and also retrading them with market replay. Here's what I found:

a couple great trades went really fast and I missed them. Even on market replay I had trouble getting in. They made 20-60 ticks each (for 3 contracts). Missing those really hurt

a few bad trades went slow and let me in

some of the trades where I got stopped out went so fast. From now on I have my finger on the DOM ready to exit at -3 ticks. otherwise they just go from 3 to 6 too fast. I debate moving my hard stop in to -4 or -5 but I'm not sure, often price will go -4 or -5 and then pullback to breakeven. so for now I try getting out with -3.

I need to be more selective. perhaps even requiring a double top or something like that. That alone would have eliminated some losing trades.

Tomorrow is another day...

for the swing trade.. still having problems with tradestation. my data cache got corrupted. From what I see on the 4500 tick there was equal buying & selling by the professionals, which makes sense cause the market was very balanced today. We'll have to see which way we break out but CL was very strong and often CL leads ES so that's one positive. Professional activity dropped off and since ES is up I suspect it was buying. A mechanical strategy signaled a short. So basically mixed ideas here, will have to wait for clarity.

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  #247 (permalink)
 cunparis 
Paris, France
 
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Sunday I wrote how small options players are extremely bullish. They're not alone. Institutional fund managers are also excessively bullish:


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  #248 (permalink)
 cunparis 
Paris, France
 
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cunparis View Post
a couple great trades went really fast and I missed them. Even on market replay I had trouble getting in. They made 20-60 ticks each (for 3 contracts). Missing those really hurt

a few bad trades went slow and let me in

some of the trades where I got stopped out went so fast. From now on I have my finger on the DOM ready to exit at -3 ticks. otherwise they just go from 3 to 6 too fast. I debate moving my hard stop in to -4 or -5 but I'm not sure, often price will go -4 or -5 and then pullback to breakeven. so for now I try getting out with -3.

I need to be more selective. perhaps even requiring a double top or something like that. That alone would have eliminated some losing trades.

Remember my analysis from yesterday?

- don't miss moves
- avoid bad trades / be more selective
- cut losers short / have finger on the eject button

I'm very proud to say that I made a lot of progress on these objectives today. Today was not an easy day by any means. I watched two really good trade opportunities slip by. One was at the top, the market went so fast the volume ladder was completely out of sync. So no ladder setup. Then a continuation entry in the down move, no ladder setup there either. I had my finger on the button but the only entry I saw was too risky. No pullback so no trade. Both would have been worth 20-50 ticks.

Finally my patience paid off. I got signs of professional buying and I took multiple shots at getting in. Took 3 different tries and I finally got it. I have my runner open now with stop at breakeven.

You can see in my trade list that I really controlled the losses, with 1 tick my biggest loss. I did this by getting great entries. The most any trade went against me was 2 ticks. This is what i need to do to be successful. Let's see if I can do it with CL today.

PS: Runner stopped out at BE. Darn. No jackpot today.

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  #249 (permalink)
 cunparis 
Paris, France
 
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One more, you can see how I determined my trade locations by using my volume indicators. These indicators analyze the order flow to detect professional activity. They picked off every one of the market turns with no false signals. They also give signals pretty much at the same time, which helps to confirm since they're each using different algorithms.

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  #250 (permalink)
 WestBeach 
South Africa & London
 
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I notice all your trades were longs. Was this in line with your cycle bias or are these trades based only on the order flow analysis? Did the order flow give any short signals during your trading session?

Thanks for the interesting thread.
WB

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