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The Logical Trading Journal

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  #1 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received

OK, here we go. So far I have had 3 unsuccessful combines. Well, not really, the last one I actually made money after trading it for 32 days and that one got rolled over.

Starting tomorrow, I am trading 3 active combines. 1 of them has already been in progress since 8/7. This one is dedicated to CL. 2 new ones starting tomorrow - one dedicated to ES and the other one to NQ and YM both. All 3 are 30K combines. The idea behind 3 combines simultaneously is as follows:

1. I know I have a winning edge. Just not sure which market suits my psychology best so instead of trying it on just ES (which is what I have done so far), will try it on 4 markets.
2. Since I look for 1 move per day, maybe 2, the idea is to capture as much as possible of that (those) moves. In terms of $/contract, it might make sense to try out different markets since some might move more than the others and over time, I can tell which market is suitable - at least initially with fewer contracts while liquidity is not an issue.
3. Also trying to cut down on the time required to figure out all of the above by doing it at the same time.

So far, the CL combine has been a roller coaster. Went up to $1030 ($470 short of combine target) and then fell back to $590. 8 days into this one so far, 12 more to go.

The reason for this thread is to track my psychological issues that I am trying to overcome.

The plan is simple. All markets make 1 move shortly after they open or some time thereafter and I want to be in that move for as long as possible. Some days the move is big, some days smaller and some days its chop. So the plan is to be in the big move for as long as possible, recognize when the small move is ending so as not to let it come all the way back for nothing and most importantly recognize chop early enough that it doesn't wipe out the account. Seems simple but for the ramblings in my head when the market is doing what it is doing - which is what I intend to control.

Will post combine trade report images tomorrow onward.

-iNeo

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  #3 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received


Since the trading idea is to target that one (or two) move of the day, each trade has a small risk and a significantly large profit target.

CL: 12 cent risk, 50 cent target
NQ: 3 point risk, 15 point target
YM: 12 point risk, 50 point target
ES: 1.5 point risk, 6 point target

So in general, its a 1:4 risk:reward ratio.

3 consecutive failed trades end the day in a combine. 1 win ends the day in a combine. So the max daily loss and the max daily targets are well defined.

Discretionary risk management decisions need to be taken when things happen that are in between the clear cut scenario above, Do I trade more to achieve full daily target when:
- New setup forms after a winning trade that did not achieve full target
- New setup forms after 1 or 2 losses followed by a win etc

I will let the market answer the question when such decisions need to be made and journal the internal ramblings regarding such decisions

-iNeo

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  #4 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received

CL Combine: Made up for the losses on Friday with 1 trade. Fast push down right at the open. Saw selling being absorbed and it stalled. Went long once a higher low formed, price went 47-48 cents in favor and I was waiting for 2 more ticks. Then decided enough is enough and took 43 ticks. And as it always happens, it did make it to my 50c target in the next couple of minutes.

ES Combine: Market faked me out on a short to start with. Then, went long on break above initial congestion, went about 2 points in favor, brought stop to par. Stopped out. Saw selling being absorbed at the open price, went long again. As per plan, wanted to hold for 6 points but it just stuck 2 ticks short. Got out for 4.75 points. Good exit in hindsight because this was the high for the day.

NQ Combine: Same story but 1 long trade only right after the break up from initial congestion. Got too aggressive on the stop and got stopped out for 7 points. Market kept going for another 10+ points without me. The day was done at this point.

There were short opportunities in both ES and NQ when market stalled and just wouldnt go up but wanted to keep the profits on day 1 so sat back and watched the potential shorts work on both markets back to open and below. CL also had a short setup but since the profits for the day were so close to daily target, sat on my hands and watched the trade work back to open.

Summary: ES 3.25 points, NQ 7 points, CL 43 cents.

Cannot post pictures for TST Trade Report because of forum limitations. Will do them later.

-iNeo

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  #5 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received

ES and NQ Combine:



CL Combine:



-iNeo

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  #6 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received

I feel like a warrior after a hard fought battle today. Mentally exhausted. But the important thing is - "Did I stick to my plan" and the answer is "No". There were 3 CL trades that was not per plan and an execution error in NQ (which I could have gotten out of but greed took over).

CL Combine: Got short before the open on a break down from congestion. Stop hit quickly but the area was still there so went short again at the same level. It went about 20 cents in favor and I decided to pull my stop to par+1. It came back, just got me (didnt even go 1 more tick) and then went down exactly 50 cents from my entry. I should have recognized the fact that this was my trade of the day and I missed it and shut it down but I didnt. I knew momentum was down so tried it one more time on the next pullback (This trade was not according to plan). It went about 30 cents in favor but no further and got out with 10 cents. Then I deviated from my plan 2 more times and was done for the day with max loss. The only good thing was that I managed to shut it down at this point and not blow out the combine.

ES Combine: Shorted slightly before open from pre-market congestion. Price went about 2 points in favor so brought stop to par and got stopped out. Got short again from break of initial congestion after open twice and took 2 losses. Market was very hesitant but if it wouldnt go down, then it is likely it will go up so went long at the break of initial congestion. This one stuck. Maybe trailed it too aggressively. Got out with 5 points. That was the end of ES.

NQ Combine: As yesterday, there were no false breaks to deal with on the down side with NQ. Got long upon break of initial congestion. After a loooooong time of doing nothing it came back and got my stop. Then I made an error. I had my order type set to limit on T4 and instead of placing a stop order, it placed a limit order short at the inside bid. I knew I should get out immediately but didnt and took another loss. Normally, I would attempt the same break twice but since I was short, I missed the 2nd attempt long. Got confused so waited until another signal formed and it did - long slightly higher from the open. It was a signal per plan so took it. Again, got too aggressive with the stop and got out with 3 points. Then everything just took off - ES, NQ, TF and I sat there and watched it.

Not going to change anything except put more thought into where I am trailing my stop to while in a winning trade.

Summary: ES 2 points, NQ -6.5 points, CL -36 cents

Trade Report Pictures:

ES and NQ Combines:



CL Combine:



-iNeo

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  #7 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received

Another hard fought day on the battleground. The battle today was entirely with myself - the trader that has to still learn to follow the plan. The plan is as black and white as it can be so what is the problem??? Will try to list:

CL Combine: I had 6 CL trades today. 4 losses and 2 wins. Only 1 of those losing trades were entered per plan. 2 of the other losing trades were taken because of the "fear of missing out". I cannot even explain right now why I took the 4th losing trade - there was nothing there at all! As for the winners - the first one was a long setup that formed before market open. Stopped out once and took it again (all per plan). The 50c target was 3 ticks beyond the gap fill so right after getting in the trade, I adjusted it to 2 ticks before gap fill. As it approached my target, for whatever reason, I moved the target to the overnight high and broke my rules. Of course it went to yesterdays settle to the tick and not 1 more and I had to scramble to get out of it for 35 cents. The other winner was per plan, quite happy with how I waited for it for quite some time and managed it for 54 cents.

I should not have traded the eminis today before FOMC. Period. I did it because I had no prior experience of active participation on an FOMC day and CL was moving quite normally for inventory Wednesday.

ES Combine: Not much here. Quickly got chopped 3 times and shut it down per rules.

NQ Combine: Not as much chop as ES. Got long from initial congestion. It went 10 points in my favor but (now I dont believe this but this is exactly what happened) I did not realize I was 9-10 points in the money because since yesterday, I started trading 2 contracts and looking at the p&l, I thought I wasnt up that much. I forgot to save my settings yesterday and so today, it reverted back to 1 contract. Once I realized it, I was still 7 points in the money and it was moving against me. I was unprepared for it so I just randomly moved my stop up to 3 points and got stopped out. Then I saw what ES was doing and stayed out of it until the report. Crazy behavior after the report - again due to fear of missing out. I see everything take a dive and pull back to around the open. I think pullback and enter short twice and take two losses (random reason for entry, not even close to the plan). Then the long signal forms and I just sit there. This one goes all the way to yesterday's high and I am kicking myself. I regroup and wait for the next one. I get a short signal and take it at 3088. I was prepare to trail it to my 15 point target at 73. Again, got too aggressive on the stop and got out with just 3 points and saw the market dive to beyond my target.

Summary: Missed opportunities today due to failure to follow plan and getting too aggressive on trails. ES -4.5 points, NQ -3.25 points, CL +42 cents.

ES and NQ Trade Report:


CL Trade Report:



-iNeo

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  #8 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received

Exhausting day again today but glad to see that I handled it better. Better execution of the plan. Still made execution errors in NQ.

CL Combine: Got chopped once before market open. Then regrouped and waited for a planned entry. Sold the low expecting follow through and got nothing. Wasn't even per plan. 2nd loss. CL was in "megaphone" mode breaking highs and lows by a few ticks and pulling back. Recognized this and took a planned entry short from the initial range high (it was a big range to start off), should have gotten out at the bottom of the range but didn't and its fine because the plan does not say so. Proceeded to execute planned entries and trailing. Gave the winners a lot of room but it wouldnt go anywhere. Finally got a couple of them for 20-30+ cents and that was it for the day. 9 trades in all.

ES Combine: I missed the initial long because of most of my attention being in CL. Got a planned entry signal long higher and decided to take it. Went 4 points and I was wishing I had more contracts on because I could see it struggling at that point. Had no choice but to let it go. Stopped out for +2 points. Tried the same long again when it retraced to the entry area, went 3 points and came back to stop me out at par. That was it. I knew I had missed it and I wasnt expecting much.

NQ: Same story as ES, missed the initial long. Trading 2 NQ contracts and messed up trying to split targets. Still getting used to T4 I guess. Cannot set OCO just for stops - have to set both stops and targets so was trying to manually place stops and targets and messed it up when the 2nd long signal formed. Got out of it quick for a slight loss since a lot was going on with CL and some with ES. Then it died with the options trading was halted so didnt touch it after that.

In both CL and ES, I felt a real need for trading more than 1 contract. You know where price is going to have a struggle and if you are 2/3rds or 3/4ths of the way to your target, you dont want to trail to 1/3rd and let it come back and stop you. Which is what happened today on multiple occasions and has happened many times before. Cumulative, I left about 5 ES points and more than 70 CL cents on the table - the second to last trade in particular - went 45 cents in favor and the logical stop placement was 25 cents below and it got me. Would like to get taken out on a limit order for a change.

Summary: ES: +2 points, NQ -3 points, CL +20 cents

ES and NQ Trade Report:


CL Trade Report:

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  #9 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received

Getting better at following the plan but still have work to do when it comes to trade management.

ES Combine: Went short after open at the break of initial congestion. Moved stop to par after price moved 2 points in favor. Got unlucky on this when price just ticked me out and went 4 points south. Next got long at planned entry signal and stayed in this one for 3 hours and 41 minutes. I cannot explain why I got out. I had a 7 point target (based on certain calculations) instead of 6 and it got hit but I managed to exit the trade for just 3 points after staying in it for so long.

NQ Combine: Reverted back to all in all out because of execution errors. I saw the pre-market move and knew it was going to chop a few minutes after the open. Still followed the plan with 2 entries that both got stopped out. This combine is at risk and will have to put extra attention starting Monday.

CL Combine: Traded the initial chop per plan and was down a little. The highlight was that my plan got me long at 104.82 but, again, I managed to get out of the trade for 35 cents to end the day slightly positive.

In hindsight, I did what I could with ES and CL. I just feel I should be trading 2 contracts and leaving one on to trail conservatively. Given trading plan and combine parameters, I cannot do this in CL (and may not have to since I am almost there). I can do it in ES and I think I will starting Monday.

Summary: ES +3 points, NQ -13 points, CL +21 cents.

ES Trade Report:


NQ Trade Report:


CL Trade Report:


-iNeo

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  #10 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received


The market knew where my stops were today. Maybe not, but it felt like that. All 3 combines results for today were shortened because my trail stops got taken out to the tick (not kidding, all 3 markets - to the tick) and price proceeded to hit my targets (except CL, but it did almost get to it).

ES Combine: Got long 61.50 at break of pre-market congestion. Moved in my favor, brought stop to par and stopped out at even. Got in again after market open at the same price. It moved in my favor again and went 4+ points. I raised my stop to 2 points, got taken out exactly to the tick and my original target of 67.50 was hit shortly thereafter.

NQ Combine: Same story as ES, got long at 3125 at break of pre-market congestion, went a little, moved stop to par, stopped out. Went in again at 3125.50, this time it went approximately 10 points in favor. For whatever reason, I didnt realize I had two contracts on and I could take one off when I saw it struggle a little bit. Instead, raised stop to 5 points and got taken out. Market proceeded to my original target of 3138 shortly thereafter.

CL Combine: Repeatedly shorted the 106 level - 5 times actually. 2 losses, 2 breakevens and the final short, had I stayed in it would have gone about 40-45 cents (not 50) in my favor and I would probably have been able to get the day back to par but after price moved 20+ cents in my favor, I brought my stop to breakeven and unbelievably, it got me to the tick and proceeded down again. At this point, I should have stopped realizing that the trade I was looking for already took place without me but I didnt. "Found" myself another short around the lows of the day and maxed out on my loss.

Summary: ES +2 points, NQ +5 points, CL -36 cents

Trade Reports Attached.

-Neo

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  #11 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received

Mixed day for me today. The "Bump and Run" pattern from the past few days remains so I have decided to make some minor tweaks for my trading plan for NQ and CL. I seem to be doing OK trading ES.

CL Combine: The market did a "bump and run" to my very first trade. Got long at the break of pre-market/initial congestion, brought stop to par once it went 20+ points in favor. Got me again at my stop and proceed to go exactly 50 cents to my target. This is the 3rd time I have written this sentence in my journal since starting it so going forward I will be more aggressive taking profits and less aggressive moving stops to par. After the first lost opportunity, I should have shut it down but didnt. This statement has also been repeated a few times so going forward, I will count missed opportunities as successful trades and either shut it down for the day or lower my target. Got chopped 3 times and had to stop due to max loss.

NQ Combine: Same story as CL. Long at initial break. Moved stop to par, bumped me and ran 10+ points towards target - didnt reach it but I would have gotten a decent win out of it. Failed to realize that had the first trade worked for me, I wouldnt be looking for big ones anymore. Also, my confidence in NQ has taken a hit now due to multiple execution errors and I am unsure what to do. With 7 days out of 20 gone and another 2-3 days like this would blow up the combine, I have no option but to keep trying and employ the same plan changes to NQ as CL.

ES Combine: I feel I "know" the ES better than any other market. Was ultra passive with my trailing stop today. Went long at break of initial congestion and sat through the whippy open. Managed to stay it it. Didnt even move my stop until it went 4 points in favor. When it got to 5+ points and only a couple ticks away from target, plus the news hour approaching, exited with 5 points. Market sentiment shifted after the news and got another short opportunity which I have been passing in the past but took it today for another 3.5 points. Then I stopped.

Summary: Trade management changes in the plan for CL and NQ. No changes for ES. CL -35 cents, NQ -21 points, ES +8.5 points.

Trade Report Pictures:

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  #12 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received

Mixed day again. Looks like if I have a good day in the minis, I dont in CL and vice versa.

ES Combine: Went short at market open upon break of initial congestion. It didnt go far - maybe 4-5 ticks and came back and took out my stop. I hesitated on the long entry on the break of the same congestion area upward. Had another level about 1 point up where I finally managed to enter long. This one went 3 points in favor and came all the way back to my par stop. After the stop out, and with yesterday's start up, finish down in mind, I got a short signal and went short. It was a low confidence trade shorting into the very congestion from which I just took a breakout long a few minutes ago and its fine if I did it once. But I got stopped out and then did it again and got stopped out again. I failed to then get back in long. Having missed the long opportunity at the right location, I chased it and got long 2 points higher. It went 3 points in favor and again came back, stopped me out to the tick (exactly) and proceeded to go beyond my 6 point target.

NQ Combine: The "bump and run" story with NQ continues. Happened twice today. Similar to ES, got long from initial congestion break. Went 5+points in favor, and after about 20 minutes, I moved stop to par and it got me. Again got a long signal at the same level (Slightly higher) and the same story repeated.

From tomorrow onwards, it will have to come back and stop me out at my original stop level or hit my target. I am done moving stops to par. I can count at least 10-12 trade during the last 8 days where my original stop was never hit and price made it to my target.

CL Combine:
The day in CL was over in the first 5 minutes. For the first time in 16 trading days, my target was filled without hesitation. Got my short setup immediately upon pit session open. I was prepared to take 20 or 30 cents and close it but it kept going. I had clicked on my target order and dragged it up with the intention of dropping it as soon as I see any sign of hesitation (I am assuming that works on T4) but it just kept going. Now with 4 days to go, I still have about 41 cents to make to qualify for funding. This would be the worst time to change anything in the trading plan, so I am just going to stick to it and see what happens.

TST Trade Report pictures:


-Neo

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  #13 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received

The mutual exclusivity continues between the eminis and CL. I got too aggressive in CL today and paid for it. On the other side, Mr. Market couldnt have been more generous. I made a mistake but you didnt have to do much to make money today in the eminis.

CL Combine: I just fired all of my bullets too quickly and no targets got hit. The highlight was my long off the open congestion break that went 30+ cents and as discussed yesterday and the day before, I did not move my stop. It came back almost 50 cents and stopped me out. Now I am confused. To move or not to move stop, that is the question! Will let time decide this but my time may run out on this combine. With 3 days to go, there is a possibility that I may not make it to the profit target. Regardless of what happens, I think I have proven that the system works but the trader does not yet - primarily because of trade management issues. I think I can single out one thing that will help for sure - I need to trade more than 1 contract so that I can keep moving my stop to par as soon as I take 1 contract off on winning trades. Throughout this combine, I have easily left more than the total combine target on the table. I feel that if I had 2 contracts on, I may not have to so carefully balance the act of trailing my trade and taking profits. So if this combine does not make it, my next one will be the 50K combine that has double the daily loss limit of the 30K combine and I can trade the same plan with 2 contracts.

NQ Combine: No mistakes today. Perhaps could have held the trade a bit longer. Got long off the initial congestion break and took the 1st contract off at 10 points right below ON and previous day high. The 2nd one I should have held longer, especially since it had broken the 2 previous highs but got out with 12 points. I got scared looking at the p&l in the DOM :-) and I wanted to keep it. I know the stats on this combine look bad but this was the first day I got to see the potential of my plan. I wouldnt be surprised if this combine is in the black in the next 2-3 trading days.

ES Combine: Execution error right off the open. Wanted to place a buy stop above the initial congestion but I am still getting used to T4. In TradeStation, if you click a price in the bid column above the best bid, it automatically places a buy stop and below it places a buy limit. I am so used to the TradeStation DOM and I forgot to check if T4 was set to stop or limit. Anyway, lost 6 ticks on that. Then placed the buy stop, got long and I was wishing I had 2 contracts on just so I could get out of 1 and hold the other. But since that wasnt the case and price was 2 ticks away from my 6 point target, I decided to get out with 5 points.

Summary: CL -34 cents, NQ +22 points, ES +3.5 points. No trading tomorrow and most likely Tuesday either. Likely be back Wednesday next.

TST Trade Reports:


Neo

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  #14 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received

There is a high probability that I will not achieve my combine target with CL. I "manufactured" my 3 trades in CL today after missing the move right off the open and paid for it. 0 discipline. My charts did not even give me a signal today until very late in the session by which time, I was out of bullets. Now I just hope to keep the combine above water for the next 2 days and hope to roll it over into a new one. There is a big difference in my trading ES vs CL. I seem to like the slower movement of ES more, maybe because it allows me time to think before/after entry so it is also about my psychology or mindset or whatever it is because I follow my plan way better in ES than in CL. My NQ trading was plagued by execution errors but since the past 2 trading days, I seem to be recovering from those.

At this rate, I am not even sure I want to have a funded account to trade CL unless my confidence level in my CL trading gets better. Maybe going for shorter targets or trading 2 contracts and taking a quick profit on the first will help - I am not sure. This combine should have achieved its target within the first 10 days. The biggest issue has been trade management and that is because I am all in and all out and am required to balance trailing the stop vs taking profits. I plan to trade CL tomorrow and Friday and if I manage to roll over the combine, I will try the 50K combine and trade 2 contracts and see if that agrees more with my trading mindset. Cant think of anything else for CL.

ES and NQ were methodical today. Both faked me out short right after market open - no big deal, its part of the plan. The longs in both more than made up for the initial losses. I was able to hold for only 5 points in the ES long (I havent yet let any one of my trades to get to 6 points - price has always gone beyond it) and in NQ, I wanted to take 10 points on the first contract but managed only 9 and the 2nd target was between 18 and 26 points but I got out with 14. Still room for improvement here but overall it seems to be working for these 2 markets.

Combine Trade Reports:





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  #15 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received

CL: I would have given myself a higher probability of making my CL combine profit target, had I stuck to my plan. I got too stubborn by going for home runs and not taking the base hits. At least I stuck to my plan for entries. 4 trades in all. First two went a little and I did not move my stop. Got taken out on both for a combined loss of 22 cents. Then came the big one. Entry was right, immediately went in favor. Now that I was down 22 cents, I had this notion in my mind that I needed 100 cents from my trade. It went 47 cents in favor and I stubbornly kept my stop at par. Came all the way back to stop out the trade at par. This was before the inventory report and it didnt occur to me that there might be another move after the report. And sure enough, there was. I caught that too. My entry was 107.82. It went to 108.54 (72 cents) and I just held on to it until the close and got out with 58 cents. Had I taken 30 or so cents on the earlier trade, I would have had a fighting chance tomorrow to make another 50 and achieve the target. But now I am 80 cents short and thats a lot to ask for in 1 trading session. I will try but at least I know I will be able to roll this combine over to a new one. I get to do it all over again - and this time, its going to be different because I am going to dig deep and find the discipline to trade CL right.

ES: I feel very fortunate to have caught the only move of the day. I was all set to go short off the open but then saw a pattern that reminded me of what "they" are trying to do. I waited for confirmation and went long at 52.75. The move stopped 2 ticks short of my 6 point target. I got out with 4 points and called it a day.

NQ: The eminis market behavior was just not there for my trading plan today. I battled and lost in NQ but stopped before getting to max loss recognizing that it was a losing battle.

Summary: CL +36 cents, ES +4 points, NQ -10.75 points. Tomorrow is the last day of the CL combine. The plan is to not be stubborn like today. Just trade my plan. Thats it.

TST Trade Report Pictures:





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  #16 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received

CL combine is dead and so is my confidence in my current method of trading CL. CL behavior changed last week and this week and my plan was not suitable for it any more. Since I made a little bit of money I expect it to be rolled over into a new combine. My trading mentor and guide repeatedly says that "the only thing that matters in trading is how much you keep" and nothing could more true than that especially when I look at my 20 days of trading CL. I made a lot of good trades but couldnt keep any of that. I am still confident that I can trade CL, just need a more agile trading plan. Cannot trade it with the idea of hitting home runs each day. Instead, going forward, I will gear it more towards taking the base hits and still be able to go for the occasional big one.

NQ combine is following CL's footsteps. In fact, it is worse than CL. Need to make major adjustments in order for it to at least survive the combine.

This is what I feel like today: and this is what I intend to be on Monday:

My ES trading has been rock solid so far. I intend to modify CL and NQ trading plans to mirror ES as much as possible so that I have the same psychological edge I have in ES.

Today might have seemed like the day to harvest the crop in ES but what happened could not have been foreseen and therefore there was no way to take advantage of it. There is no way to plan for something that happens once a year - maybe. So I stuck to my plan and after giving up 1 loss, took my 6 points (for the first time!) and called it quits.

Back Monday

TST Reports:





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LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
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With no CL trading today, I was much more relaxed. CL TST combine got rolled over and I am unsure if I want to trade CL at this time on the new combine. There is no methodical movement whatsoever in CL since the last 2 weeks or so. I could scalp but thats almost like throwing darts to find out how lucky you are. And even if it works, its useless because CL behavior is very abnormal these days - directionless most of the day with an algo spurt here or there and then drops 100+cents within 10 minutes on no volume after market close??? Not for me - not yet. Instead, I am going to focus on the ES and NQ combines for the next week or so and reevaluate maybe by end of next week and then make a decision.

In the Eminis, I could see the overnight was mostly a channel with the highs at 59.75. ES has a tendency to "fake out" in one direction before taking off in the other and it sort of did that. For whatever reason, I was biased long today. I went long at the break of the overnight/channel high at 60.

NQ also had a similar overnight structure I went long ES and NQ at exactly the same time (literally). I knew the first resistance was going to be prior day's high and I thought I would get out for 4 points when it hit 64. The ES combine was just 6 points short of the target and I didnt want to push it much. I tried getting out at 64 but couldnt so got out at the best bid at 63.50.

When ES retraced from the prior day high, I decided to take 1 contract off in NQ for 6 points. With a short signal forming in NQ, I exited my remaining long position and went short at the same price but it didnt go much and ended up getting stopped out for a full loss. NQ was at breakeven at this point.

Both ES and NQ formed another long signal and I went long NQ at 54.50 Took the first contract off way too early for just 6 points. I wanted to hold the 2nd one till 74.50 for 20 points but ended up getting out at 69. And that was the day.

Not sure why I skipped the long in ES from 63 when I went long NQ. There was no reason to skip it. I was up 3.5 points and I could have easily risked 1.5 to get in long ES but I didnt. This is my biggest weakness at this point - not being able to hold on to winners and after getting a little profit locked in, afraid to give it back.

Anyway, another 3 points in ES and the TST combine will make it to the profit target. Looking forward to it. Also been tweaking NQ a bit each day and it seems to be getting better.

It does look like I came in today. 7 more days to go...

TST Combine Trade Reports:



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LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
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Its easy to learn when to trade - easier actually. Much harder to learn when not to. I choose the word "learn" since we do not always do what we know. A day like today is most challenging for a breakout trader like me. Every 1 out of 5-6 days is like this and eventually I will get better at recognizing them and not give up too much back to the market.

Wont blame myself too much though. Its been a struggle so far and I have done a good job of overcoming them. A journey of a 1000 miles begins with 1 step and I am on step 4 or 5. I did what I could have done given my current trading plan and my understanding of my journey towards successful trading.

The new rolled over combine becomes active on Thursday. I am still not sure if I want to trade CL or maybe I should trade YM. My trading methodology is sound - I have no doubt about it. Wait for congestion, go on the breakout and hold for as long as possible to capture those 1 or 2 moves per day. Simple. There are areas that need improvement and they will improve in time but until then, I need the market to be there during those 20 trading days.

Dont have to decide anything right now, especially on a day like today. Today is done... next please...




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LogicalTrader
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Still have to learn when not to trade, when to wait, when not to be eager to enter into trades, let them come to you, dont chase. My day was done in less than 10 minutes. I fired off 5 trades in ES and NQ and maxed out my losses for the day. Had I waited a little bit instead of being eager to get into trades, I could have done much better today.

The open was similar to yesterday and it chopped me up within 10 minutes. Mid morning, "they" decided to take it up. No news, nothing and it just took off. I dont really care why the market does what it does. I just care about what I will do when it does what it does. I couldnt do what I wanted to do when it went up because I was out of bullets.

This calls for a change in the plan going forward at the risk of missing a winner and that is fine because so far, only once has my 3rd trade after 2 chops has actually made any money, the rest have all lost. Going forward, if I get chopped up twice, early. I will stop until price leaves the area and starts accepting price elsewhere and then breaks out of it. I will either get another entry and try to bring the day back to even or simply not trade anymore. By doing this, I am no worse off, I at least give myself the opportunity to bring the day to even or better as opposed to being done for the day at 8:40 AM.

Still havent decided what I am going to do with my 3rd combine. Its active now. I am not trading until next week because of all the rollover process tomorrow/Friday so I have time to decide what I want to do. Also trying to decide how I can bring the NQ combine back above 0. Its doable. With 5 days to go, I need to bring my A game to the market. With FOMC next Wed, chances of chop are greater next Mon, Tue so maybe I will wait until next Thursday to continue trading the combines.

Lesson to be learnt so far from the ES combine is the similar to what I saw with CL. I need to do better on my winning days, when the market is favorable to my plan. I cannot do much more different on losing days, they are going to be there, are inevitable and part of the process. But, my winning days have been sub-par compared to what I planned for. The journal is full of entries like "got out too early", "could not hold", "afraid to give back profits" etc. Have to focus on that and I will.

Probably no journal entries until next Thursday.




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 ratfink 
Birmingham UK
 
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iNeo View Post
Still have to learn when not to trade, when to wait, when not to be eager to enter into trades, let them come to you, dont chase. My day was done in less than 10 minutes. I fired off 5 trades in ES and NQ and maxed out my losses for the day. Had I waited a little bit instead of being eager to get into trades, I could have done much better today.

If it's any consolation I have trouble with the same issue, and for me it tends to show up most of all when we are around market tops, I call it my 'frazzle zone' and I usually take a pasting. Typically the ES (60 RTH and 135 ETH) are grinding north along upper Bollinger bands that I know are my 'Stay Away' indicator. And I always ignore it, and pay for it. Fortunately tomorrow is always another day, though yesterday I nearly decided it wasn't.

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LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
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Considering that CL is rolling over the next day or two and the triple witching in stocks, I will stay away from trading until Monday. Doesn't make sense to start a new combine with CL or to trade the last 5 days of the running combines until next Monday. If the markets move (like they have today and yesterday) and I miss it, then I miss it.

Back Monday.

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LogicalTrader
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Multiple reasons to reconsider my decision to wait until Monday.

Firstly, there was nothing wrong with CL movements today. The moves were exactly according to what my plan projected, so based on today, I believe the probabilities are back in favor.

Secondly, I thought about what I would do if I have a sizable account and I was already successful at trading. Would I stay out so long waiting for conditions to be "perfect" for trading? I probably wouldnt. So it is what it is and I will take what the market gives me.

CL Combine resumes tomorrow. Not sure about ES and NQ but most likely those as well.

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LogicalTrader
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After having reviewed my journal for the past 15 days of trading and the past many more days, I will incorporate the following changes in my trading plan.
  1. No change to entries - I think I got them right. Identify congestion, draw hi/low lines, place stop orders above/below depending on the instrument and time into session. If tight overnight session, look for breaks early etc. The e-minis make 1 or maybe 2 moves a day so watch those fake outs - especially in ES.
  2. Exits will change: The major emphasis going forward is to hold the trades as much as possible. The journal entries suggest that I have left a lot on the table on the good days. Cannot control the bad days too much so will focus on the good ones.
    • Will take stop halfway to par when trade goes in favor more than what my initial stop was. This allows re-entry if it stops out and sets up again as opposed to getting stopped out to the tick and then it goes towards targets.
    • Will trail as long as high/lows in favor - for longs HH/HL etc and trail stop accordingly. There will be times when I get low/high ticked and that is fine. Will be as conservative as possible in trailing. Will be prepared for such scenarios and not worry about them if they occur.
    • If initial move in e-minis keeps going past 10 central, will possibly hold position until close to end of session. If a counter move has to happen, its after the 9 AM reports and before 10 AM (generally, nothing set in stone), so on such days if the first move does not take place within the first 30 minutes, will mostly be closing the position before the report is out and either look for continuation or reversal.
    • When profitable early in the session, take the 2nd/3rd setups

Thats mostly it. Time to execute now

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LogicalTrader
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New CL combine started with a bang today. Mostly followed the rules. Fingers shook as I took the trades (didnt know a week long break could do that . CL showed pre open congestion from 107.60 - 108.15. Ideally, I wanted to be short below107.60. It couldn't have setup better for me. Got in short after open when it pulled back and on the way down at 107.58 with a 10c stop. Got taken out. And for whatever reason, went long at the same price - basically reversed which was actually NOT the dumbest move of the day (that honor is reserved for what I did in the ES). Took another 10c stop loss. By now, I was stopped out in a long trade when I should actually have been short at 106.58. Cancelled everything, took a deep breath and waited for another setup short. Didnt have to wait long. Shorted the break of 107.41 swing low and held on to it for 60c. I was shaking too much to hold on more. Will get better in a day or two - the shaking I mean. The plan was to hold until a swing high was broken, which happened around the 106.23 area.

ES was coming down from new highs before open and I was thinking long for some reason. I forced a long at 23.50 right at open for not much reason and paid for it with 6 ticks. Got a clear cut setup short from 20.50 and entered short. It didnt go much and the 9 AM report was due so got out with 4 ticks. Then came the dumbest move of all. I lost my concentration or started thinking too much or not sure what it was but took a long at 19.50 when the setup was clearly short. AND held this for an hour, pulled my stop back 2 more ticks (all big no-nos in my plan) and took the stop when all of this time I should have been short. Why I would not get out of the trade is still beyond me. Why hope takes over reason and logic is something I still have to control. Planned trade was short from 20.50 and take profits anywhere after 6+ points but instead ended up giving back 2.5 points total. 4 more days to go in the ES combine and today turned out to be the exact opposite of what I had prepared myself for.

It just seems like I choke towards the end and not sure why. I was 3 points away from combine target 4 days ago. Same story with the earlier CL combine. Got to work on this.

No trades in NQ. Nothing really setup so still have 5 days in the NQ combine.

Tomorrow is options expiration so I will not trade ES or NQ. Will trade CL though. Got to get that finger shaking to stop




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LogicalTrader
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The combine days are now mixed up so its not really day 17 in any combine. Just overall since the journal started. CL combine is on day 2, ES on day 16 and NQ on day 15.

Traded only CL today. Wanted to stay away from e-minis because of options expiration but just a note for future reference about ES - it was picture perfect with what it did. Slow grind downward all the way into the close. If the first congestion break from 16.25 was taken, it was a 14 point move and this would have been a good day in the ES because there was no HH formed by more than a tick in my charts and had I stuck to the plan, could have been a really good day.

CL movements were difficult today but slower and I like slower as long as it still covers the distance and it did. It took 5 hours and 5 minutes before the trade of the day showed up and fortunately, I wasnt out of bullets.

Tried a couple of longs initially from the break of the initial congestion at 5.55. Gave up 10c in the first attempt. The second long attempt went 32 cents in favor but per plan, I wanted more or nothing and I took nothing. After that, it was either long above 5.55 or short below 5.20. I went short at 5.20 and it went 22c in favor and stopped at par. By this time, I had lowered my short entry to the 5.08 break. It just chopped unbelievably between these 2 points and finally broke through. I was filled at 5.03. It went exactly to 4.50 and there was some heavy selling around that price but market did not budge even 1 tick lower. I saw 690 contracts hit the bid and it never went offer at 4.50, that was my clue to tighten my stop which I did and got out with 40c.

CL combine looking good so far. Up $630 in 2 days, need another $770 with 18 days to go. But, I have been down this road before and I am not going to celebrate yet.



Going to start getting into ACD (the logical trader, Mark Fisher) and Mind over markets (Dalton) over the weekend. @mfbreakout is the inspiration for this. I have become better at using only what works for me so this is either going to help me or not but wont take me back a step - that much I know.

Have a good weekend.


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LogicalTrader
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Wasn't feeling well today and wasn't sure if I wanted to trade. Came in to see CL pushing down from early morning highs. There was a perfect short setup from around/before 7 AM that I had missed and was already nicely in progress. Didn't push it and stayed away from chasing it. Just saw it unfold perfectly for close to 150 cents. Once that move was done, I didnt want to be in the market since most of the money was already made and lost for the day during that move.

ES had a pretty good pre-open congestion area. I gave it a go at 1701 when it broke up. It went a little but was quickly pushed down and got my stop for -6 ticks. I put my stop order in again at 1700.75 and got stopped out again, this time for 2 points. While in the 2nd trade, my charts formed a short setup. My stop was also my entry for my 3rd trade short from 1698.75. I was down 3.5 points by this time and knew this would be my last trade regardless of the outcome. Followed the plan and trailed it conservatively. Got out with 8 points at 1690.75. Cumulative gain in ES for the day was 4.5 points.

Did not trade NQ as I wasn't able to focus too much today.

At this point, I don't think I want to trade both ES and NQ going forward. ES suits my psychology much better. I can hold trades to let them develop (today's trade took 90+ minutes to get 8 points) and I am just fine with that. There is no stress trading this way. I have been doing the same thing with CL and I feel comfortable with just these 2. Instead of trading both ES and NQ, I think I prefer just trading more size in ES. So regardless of the outcome of the current combines, going forward, I will remain focused on CL and ES. I still have to figure out how to utilize the remaining 5 days in the NQ combine.


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trader000
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iNeo View Post
I can hold trades to let them develop (today's trade took 90+ minutes to get 8 points) and I am just fine with that. There is no stress trading this way.

This is a very important step in the process of becoming a consistent trader. Your statement here is exactly why I had to get away from the ES. Sitting in a trade going nowhere is the worst thing that can happen for me, so I moved to the ZS, where often I know quickly whether the trade is in the green or red.

Just as important (if not more) than system design is what market(s) that system is implemented on. It took me a long time to figure out the indexes and what I see as choppy conditions is just not for me. Luckily there are markets for all temperaments - from indexes to ag's to oil/metals/energy.

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LogicalTrader
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I still have issues with trade management. I cannot find a consistent way to manage trades, trail stops or take profits. Gave back too much today in both CL and ES.

My entries were all fine, nothing out of the plan. Most went more than a few ticks in favor and in hindsight, today was not the day to give trades too much room to run. But I didnt know that. I will never know that. Will just have to figure out an approach that is in between and stick to it.

All trades included, I left 10+ points on the table in the ES - 1 trade went 4.75 points in favor and the other exactly 6 points but I wanted more and it didnt happen today. Total time I was in these 2 trades was more than 5 hours.

Same story with CL today. After giving up 10 cents in my first trade, the second one went exactly 40 cents in favor but I wanted more. After this trade, I should have just called it a day but I pushed it and paid for it.

2 more days left in the ES combine and its a long shot now. Had I been consistent throughout the combine, I would be writing something else in my journal today. But this is a part of the learning process. Only I can make myself comfortable with my style of trading. Eventually, I will find it and keep it consistent. Meanwhile, my faith in my entries keeps getting stronger and stronger. I just have to figure out when to get out and eventually it will happen.

The biggest issue is still when I start my day down a little. Then I want more than is available and that's what happened today. What the market was making available was not enough for me today. And with the combine fast approaching its end, this behavior was amplified even more.

All part of the process. This is precisely why I am trading a TST combine and not my own account.




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 mfbreakout 
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iNeo View Post
I still have issues with trade management. I cannot find a consistent way to manage trades, trail stops or take profits. Gave back too much today in both CL and ES.

My entries were all fine, nothing out of the plan. Most went more than a few ticks in favor and in hindsight, today was not the day to give trades too much room to run. But I didnt know that. I will never know that. Will just have to figure out an approach that is in between and stick to it.

All trades included, I left 10+ points on the table in the ES - 1 trade went 4.75 points in favor and the other exactly 6 points but I wanted more and it didnt happen today. Total time I was in these 2 trades was more than 5 hours.

Same story with CL today. After giving up 10 cents in my first trade, the second one went exactly 40 cents in favor but I wanted more. After this trade, I should have just called it a day but I pushed it and paid for it.

2 more days left in the ES combine and its a long shot now. Had I been consistent throughout the combine, I would be writing something else in my journal today. But this is a part of the learning process. Only I can make myself comfortable with my style of trading. Eventually, I will find it and keep it consistent. Meanwhile, my faith in my entries keeps getting stronger and stronger. I just have to figure out when to get out and eventually it will happen.

The biggest issue is still when I start my day down a little. Then I want more than is available and that's what happened today. What the market was making available was not enough for me today. And with the combine fast approaching its end, this behavior was amplified even more.

All part of the process. This is precisely why I am trading a TST combine and not my own account.

Attachment 124078

Attachment 124079


10 points gains in ES and you wanted more? Sounds like you are trying to recover previous losses from one trade.

Futuretrader71 - he has done many webinars at futures.io (formerly BMT)- with all his discipline and skill set is looking for 2-4 points.

Same with CL. On 80% of trading days if you can book 30-40 ticks book it.

Look at ATR of an instrument and try to consistently 20-30% of ATR before trying to get more ticks.

40 ticks on CL with 2 cars is $800.

800x12= $9600/ month

If you have bigger account like above 200K

10 cars x400= $4000

4,000 x 12= $48,000/month.

I am assuming 12 successful trading days in a month.

If one account is properly funded 30 to 40 ticks in CL is a BANK breaker. I will recommend you to stay away from ES. It's a slow moving , back and forth instrument. Focus on CL or other volatile instrument of your choice.

A trader potential target needs to be in relation to his stop loss. using 10 ticks stop loss to make 100 ticks not gonna cut it. 10-15 ticks stop loss and getting 30 ticks is EXCELLENT risk/reward. try to Focus on just ONE GOOD trade per day with full position size with full 30 ticks gains.

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Pedro40
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iNeo View Post
2 more days left in the ES combine and its a long shot now.

Just take it easy and don't try to push it. You are still good for a rollover, so I would just make sure I don't screw up and pass this 2 days keeping the numbers green. And you would get your 2nd chance in the next Combine...

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LogicalTrader
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mfbreakout View Post
10 points gains in ES and you wanted more? Sounds like you are trying to recover previous losses from one trade.

Thats exactly right. I have been unable to break this pattern yet. After initial losses, I tend to ignore what the market is making available for me and try to get what isnt there.


mfbreakout View Post
A trader potential target needs to be in relation to his stop loss. using 10 ticks stop loss to make 100 ticks not gonna cut it. 10-15 ticks stop loss and getting 30 ticks is EXCELLENT risk/reward. try to Focus on just ONE GOOD trade per day with full position size with full 30 ticks gains.

Thank you. I started out with a similar goal. One good trade is still the daily goal. I just need to keep my head together when I start off with a couple of losses. Been telling myself that breakeven is better than a loss etc. I will get there, thanks for the support.

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LogicalTrader
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Pedro40 View Post
Just take it easy and don't try to push it. You are still good for a rollover, so I would just make sure I don't screw up and pass this 2 days keeping the numbers green. And you would get your 2nd chance in the next Combine...

Thanks. This will be my 3rd rollover. I wont screw it up. I will just try to follow the plan better and make as many points the market makes available to me.

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LogicalTrader
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ES movements just slapped me around and quickly told me today was not my day. I was done before 9 with 3 losses. ES was simply untradeable for me today today. One trade lasted only 7 seconds which is a first for me in ES.

Last day to go in the ES combine and unless I somehow make 25 points tomorrow, its not going to happen. This is my 2nd ES TST combine that will end above 0 and below the profit target so I will be able to roll it over into a new one. This time, I will be going for the 50K combine because I want to be able to trade 2 contracts and maintain the same style of trading. The idea is to take profits when 4-6 points into the trade and let 1 run for larger targets. As I have noted before, I cannot do anything about days like today (actually, there is something and I am working on it but its not in the plan yet ). All I can do for now, is improve upon the good ones.

On the other hand, had to be really patient with CL. I had nothing going on in my charts, no strong setups, nothing until 1 hour after the report. I took a long setup at 103.50 area which was purely out of frustration. It was a setup per plan so its OK to have taken the trade but clearly, the bias was short at the time. Had 2 opportunities to go short right after that and I decided to stick with the lower one at 103.20 area which worked out for 41 cents. I was mentally exhausted and didn't have it in me to hold the trade longer but my original target was slightly above yesterday's low at 102.30. Eventually it got taken out (with a whole lot of selling) after the pit close.

I have decided to use up my remaining 5 days in the NQ combine trading CL a slightly different way. I am still working on the final setup and will probably start trading it Monday onward. After starting the 2nd CL combine 3 days ago with slightly different setups than the previous combine, I want to focus on CL more with another slight twist based on the help I am getting from this forum. I will try and take good strong setups in NQ to bring it above 0 so that the combine can be rolled over but that wont be the primary focus. I have decided to stick to ES and CL.




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LogicalTrader
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I came in today with the plan of taking 2nd, 3rd and 4th setups in ES even if I was nicely green and I did that. 7.25 points from the 1st 2 trades and then -.5 points for the next 3. In the ES and YM, I have always maintained my belief that there are 1 or maybe 2 major moves in a day most of the time. The highest probability of the 2nd move occurring is before 10 central. Beyond this, its a coin toss (which was proven again today). I am actually happy with my progress. This was the 2nd ES combine that ended profitably - just not enough to get funded. I believe the more screen time I get the better I will become.

I am going to continue my efforts to get funded and now have opted for a 50K combine so that I can trade more than 1 contract. I just spoke with TST and this combine starts tomorrow.

CL behavior has changed dramatically since I first started trading it a few months ago. The moves are slower but methodical. I could not trade it today using my plan. Gave up 29 cents, recognized I was losing the battle today and called it quits before doing too much damage. I could see how other trading concepts might have fared well today. For trading any market, I believe one should be a good judge of the "mood" of the market (or market participants) and be equipped with the tools to respond accordingly. The faster you judge, the better off you are. I am going to focus on that also now. I will have to build that skill and beef up my toolbox and I know, just like Rome, it wont be built in a day. So until then, I will just do my job to the best of my ability.

In times like these I want to reinforce the belief that I am headed down the right path. If I look at my last 3 combines, they have all been profitable, just not enough to pass a test criteria. I just have to keep at it and I am pretty sure I will get funded soon.

Back tomorrow.




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LogicalTrader
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1st day of new ES combine. Went in with 2 contracts on each trade - all 3 of which stopped out. It really hurts when there you max your losses out with double the size you are used to - ouch!

I couldnt judge the open, the market faked me out in every direction. Thats my plan - to look for a break either way and stick with it. It seems like days like Friday are simply untradeable using my plan. I need to augment my plan to protect myself from such days and it is a work in progress and I will eventually incorporate certain other rules that help on days like these. My research into Mark Fisher's ACD method is going well and although I havent figured out how exactly to incorporate it in yet, it definitely seems promising. For instance, Friday would have been a failed A down resulting in a long once price moved back into the open range which would have been a nice 4-5 point trade. Anyway, not to get too ahead of myself, what I have so far works extremely well when the market is there so wont change a thing until I have proof that the change helps

As has been the trend, down in ES, means up in CL which has been a see-saw since the combine started 6 days ago - 4 up days, 2 down days. It was hard to trade CL on Friday. And my bet, that won the day was a break of 103.11 which was holding like a rock and I was long when it eventually broke. Managed 43 cents from that. Entry and trade was per plan so took it even though I knew the level was there.

Traded the NQ combine with CL and NQ as planned. The new CL plan that I am using the NQ combine for worked very well on Friday but I couldn't execute it well enough. The plan setup a long at 102.60 and I was thinking - you think, you lose (like you snooze, you lose) and I got in long at .74. Market retraced, got my stop at what should really have been my entry in the first place and proceeded 50 cents to my target. Then I took 2 more trades that really weren't there and lost 23 cents overall.

Also traded NQ since I had only 5 days left with the idea of bringing the combine back above 0. Took the only setup my charts had - long from 3214.50 - break of opening congestion and managed 19.5 points on 2 lots.

Will continue with all 3 combines tomorrow, slowly tweaking the plan as I learn more about the ACD method. I dont care if it takes 20 combines to get there - all I know is that I will get there

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  #36 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
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Today I had decided 2 things:
  1. I will wait for the market to open and wait for the first clear setup of the day.
  2. Since it is month/quarter end, I will not hold a trade or look for a trade past 10 central.
Which worked out well. After the initial push down in the ES, charts formed an setup and I had to scramble to get long at 69.25. In hindsight, this could also have been categorized as a failed A down. Took 1 off for 4.25 points when it first stalled at the previous swing high and moved stop to par. Price came back almost all the way (1 tick away) to my stop and then continued on. I wanted to hold the other one till Friday's low at 1680 (gap fill per Jim Dalton) but when it stalled at the overnight highs and I decided to close the position for 6 points on the 2nd one. Almost made up the losses from Friday so all is well in ES - doesn't hurt as much today .

I needed a reason to get long in NQ because I knew I was on the right side of the market when my par ES stop held and jumped in with 2 contracts at 97.25 on the break of a small congestion area that had formed previously. Took 1 off at at 8.75 and 2nd one got trailed out at 10.75 so bagged 25 points in all.

No CL trades today. I had a chance to get long twice but I had 0 confidence in what the market makers were trying to achieve today - everything was centered around the 102 area later in the session and I wasnt betting on it either way. Plus the good session in the eminis was also a factor for staying out of CL.

NQ combine will most likely end up above 0 for another free rollover (I think). Not sure what I will do with that but I will think of something.

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  #37 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
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Today was probably the worst day in terms of results so far in the past 4 combines. I will not think about it too much today since any decision made today will probably not be the best one.

CL: I am utilizing my NQ combine to test out a theory in CL and it worked well today. Got short at 102.35 when the previous swing low broke and rode that one until the globex low. Then gave it all back after pit session open in the regular CL combine account. I don't think I deviated from the entry plan. The stops were too tight since I have a fixed 10 cent stop. Ended up with 4 losers in a row.

ES: Got too aggressive at the open. Took breakout short, then long and then sat on the sidelines instead of taking the one that actually worked. Actually, the trades in CL were also messing up my judgement and focus. Just total chaos in my head today and didnt handle it all too well.

NQ: Attempted a couple of trades just to get the overall p&l above 0 but my focus was all on CL and getting back my lost ticks - thats actually what killed it today.

A day for reflection and actually take a break. I need to be in a better frame of mind to continue my efforts so I am going to take the rest of the week off.

Back in a few days...

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LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
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As planned, did not trade either the ES or CL combines. Taking a break and will resume trading these combines Monday.

Today, I just focused on taking the NQ combine above 0 so that I can roll it over. The new CL strategy that I am testing on this combine is working well. The idea is to trade in the early morning hours and capture some of the late london/european session swings. Basic method is still the same - taking breakouts from areas of congestion for relatively smaller targets of about 30 cents. So far, it has helped bring the NQ combine above 0. The challenge now is that TST requires that each product traded should be above 0 and while this is not a problem with CL, I will have to make about $300 in NQ tomorrow so that both of them are above 0 since tomorrow is the final day of this combine. I will also trade CL in this combine early morning and it is entirely possible that a couple of good trades in both NQ and CL might push this combine to the overall profit target . We'll see.

Meanwhile, I am analyzing my trading so far to see which areas need to improve and one of them that stands out is my win %. In the current and past combines my win % has averaged between 30-32%. At the same time my average win has been 2.5 times the average loss. So, in order for me to not just break even, either my win % has to increase or my win/loss ratio has to increase. This is what I am focusing on at this time and hope to have a plan to address these before I resume trading ES and CL on Monday.

Tomorrow should be exciting...

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  #39 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
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Late post regarding completed NQ combine yesterday.


iNeo View Post
Tomorrow should be exciting...

It almost was. Got a 30c winner in CL early in the morning so had more than enough cushion to get NQ above 0. Came as close as $60 to making it, then blew it and blew it really bad. I got stuck in the classic loser's mindset - "since I missed the short, it has to go up" mindset. I must have taken about 10 trades long after getting out of my short a little bit earlier and none of them worked, and finally blew the daily loss limit. Simply lost it. I thought I was past this behavior but I guess not. Anyway, I will attribute some of it to it being the last day of the combine because I cannot help but think that if this wasn't the last day of the combine, I would probably have held on to my NQ short and bagged about 12-15 points easily if not more. What a waste! Still cannot believe it.

Next post discusses next steps. Its only going to get better from here...

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  #40 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
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ES: Still not trading ES. Still working on a near final plan. I know where my exits/targets are in ES. Still do not have a good feel for where the entries are. Will start ES only when the plan is near complete and tweak it as I trade it.

CL: Big change in plans thanks to @mfbreakout's journal. I am going rely on specific levels to lean on - namely the globex high/low, the open range high/low and the asian/london session levels and bring in Mark Fisher's ACD method on top of my existing plan. The philosophy still remains the same - I want to capitalize on the 1 or 2 major moves that markets make most days. Now I have a reason to anticipate these moves rather than throw a dart and hope it hits the 50. Entry triggers also change. I will not be taking breakouts from congestion areas anymore - most of the entries will be pullbacks to the mentioned areas with confirmation. Since entries are pullbacks, the confirmation will be the relative absorption of market orders in the opposite direction of entry for which I have written a simple piece of code to plot that as a histogram.

Friday's CL Trade: Took a nice short in CL after the open from the open range high but didnt hold on to it as much as I should have - got 21c but it gave me a confidence boost about the direction that I am headed in.




Today's CL Trades:
Trade 1: Fade OR/Overnight Low, Long 102.56, Stopped 102.44
Trade 2: Reversion to OR - Long 101.99, Out 102.41. Since A down was confirmed, wanted to be out before OR low was hit. Original target was 102.49 but got antsy and got out a few ticks early.




TST CL Combine Trade Report:

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  #41 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
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Hesitated today and it cost me.

Price came up to OR high with enough confirmation to short. Took it but got stopped out. Nothing wrong with the trade. Then, instead of maintaining the short bias, I hesitated taking the next short which had even better confirmation and instead went long at the OR high. This cost me my confidence for the day. I stopped trading after this realizing that had I taken the short, I would have been done for the day.

Chart shows confirmed entries.



ES plan is almost final. I am almost ready to approach it similar to CL using Fisher's ACD. Will finalize it by tomorrow and start trading Thursday onward.

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  #42 (permalink)
 Tiger45 
San Diego, CA, USA
 
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That long you took that stopped you out was a good trade. It was a BOPB, it just didn't work.

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  #43 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
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Posting for both yesterday and Today.

Still trading only CL and I want it to be CL only until I am trading it consistently well.

I have 2 active combines at this time. I have determined that I am most comfortable trading CL and ES. Good thing is that the current CL combine has 8 more days to go and the newer 50K combine has 17 days to go and is valid until 11/26 and that gives me enough time to trade 1 combine at a time. So I am going to focus on CL for the next 8 trading days and then start trading CL again on the other combine. I will just bring the ES P&L to > 0 in that combine and take it forward on just CL.

Feel a whole lot of confidence boost from seeing the market movements confirm to the new trading plan. So far I have failed on execution, and that is expected when the plan changes so much, but just as before, I will start executing well and UNLIKE before, I believe this plan has a CONSISTENT edge for any given TYPE of trading day.

Wednesday: I waited for the failed A down for 2 hours since it was inventory wednesday. Got the failed A down, got long but couldn't hold it. There was no reason to get out. Entry was 101.28 with target of around 101.80. The trade worked but I wasnt it in. All the trades I made yesterday were around this idea except for the last one which was a WWIT (What was I thinking?) trade. Eventually, these WWIT trades will get purged out of my system.



Today: Same idea today also. There was much pressure on the sell side at the open to take out yesterday's lows and I wanted a piece of that. Unfortunately, didnt time it right so nearly just broke even over 3 attempts. BUT the idea was right and the timing will fix itself over time.

Then the bread and butter trade setup - the failed A down - and I HESITATED and MISSED it, for no reason other than the ramblings in my head. The long was at 101.26 just as yesterday it was at 101.28.

Now since it was a failed A down, I wanted to see if the OR high would get taken out and it would be an A up. AND it was. I waited for price to pull back to the OR high, confirmed the entry was good and took it from 101.91. The p&l today is what it is due to this trade only. Would have been better if I had A) timed my earlier short better and B) taken the failed A down. ALL in good time...


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  #44 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
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"Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face" - Mike Tyson.

"You can take the little jabs, but you need to avoid the knock-out punches" - Mark Fisher.

Every trader has a plan and my goal is to not get punched in the face and avoid the subsequent knock-out. Since the new plan went into place, I have taken several severe jabs and the primary reason is that I cannot follow the new plan yet. Its simple enough, take only the failed A and failed C trades. On top of that, I misunderstood what a failed A was! I thought that the OR had to be broken for a failed A to setup but then I reread the book and thats not true.


Mark Fisher
A rubber band trade is made when the market approaches or just touches a target and snaps back. In that instance, you would go short just below the A up or go long just above the A down. Your stop on the trade would be the A up/down price point. Or, you'd exit the trade if the market didn't move in the direction you anticipated within your time frame.

Mark B. Fisher. The Logical Trader: Applying a Method to the Madness (p. 28). Kindle Edition.

Both situations mentioned above occurred today but I didnt take any of them because I didnt understand it well enough. Instead, I tried to emulate Vince Virgil and scalp out some ticks - thats not even in the plan!

Obviously disappointed about this whole week with my understanding and execution of the plan. Good thing is that the combine is still good and I have 7 more days to go and then 17 more days in the 50K combine, so I still have about 5 more weeks to get this right.

Patience is indeed a virtue and so is self control.

Meahwhile, been coding my charts to auto-plot levels required for ACD. Not done yet but so far looking good. Been watching both CL and ES and both look really good through the ACD lens. This was ES today - textbook:

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LogicalTrader
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I just realized that having a hypothesis or two to start off the day is a really good idea. I have seen some traders do that and at one point even I used to do it. I have seen @runner do it regularly in @mfbreakout's journal so I am going try and put my thoughts down on paper before the day starts and think of the probable movements that price could make during the next few hours.

Years ago, my geography teacher used to say something that stuck with me - "a man without a plan is like a soldier without a gun". Of course, we made fun of him then. Who knew?

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  #46 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
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Starting this practice from today onward. Plan is to get better at determining scenarios that could play out during the day.

Todays pre market analysis:


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 xiaosi 
Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
 
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Remember, today is a holiday....could be a slow day too?

Edit: Or is it? thought today was Columbus day???

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LogicalTrader
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xiaosi View Post
Remember, today is a holiday....could be a slow day too?

Edit: Or is it? thought today was Columbus day???

I dont think so. Market moving well so far. Volume looks right

Edit: I think you are right. It is columbus day. Duh! But CME trading hours are unaffected.

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  #49 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
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Long 101.17

Edit 8:06: Out flat 101.44 for 27 ticks.

Edit 9:30 AM: OR: 101.06 - 101.84. WOR high, EOR low above OR high so interested at those levels. Nothing since the first trade. Sitting on hands for at least OR to break.

Edit 10:38 AM: Short 101.76 for failed A up setup. Took a 12 cent stop. Will re-enter higher.

Edit 10:45 AM: Re-entered short from 101.82. Will look for OR low or at least TL low if not stopped. Could still go higher to WOR high/EOR low. Last attempt short at OR high.

Edit 10:55 AM: Time filter for short runs out in 10 minutes.

Edit 11:00 AM: I am thankful for stops

Edit 11:20 AM: Short 102.50 on euro high fade. Looking for quick targets since A up confirmed.

Edit 11:40 AM: Everytime I go to scratch, it goes a little. Will just let it go. The big money has already exchanged hands. Either it goes a little in my favor and I take a few ticks or last trade of the day for me.

Edit 11:50 AM: Leaving target at 102 (WOR high). Off to lunch.

Edit 12:30 PM: Still holding. Most probably the last trade of the day. Cant lose now. Lets see if we revisit any of the lower areas 102.10, 101.97 and I am definitely out at 101.84.

Edit 12:48 PM: See some buyers trapped above EOR. Hopefully enough for a bit of a push down.

Edit 12:53 PM: Closed position at 102.08. Now it will go to 101.84 . I am done for the day. Hindsight analysis a bit later on.

Hindsight Analysis:
In hindsight, going short today was tough because there was no proper stop area. I could not have confidently said that "if I am short, I am wrong here" until the Euro high was retested. That was a good short.

The first long was another good trade and I got too antsy to get out. I should have given it more time to see if the OR high is revisited before the OR low. But trading 1 contract doesnt give me much to experiment with. These notes will help later I am sure.

Between the first long and the last short, I got hung up with the notion that price could come back and test the lows again and did not encourage any longs. Not that there was a compelling long that I missed but I should not get tunnel vision. Must keep an eye out for 25-30 tick trades that may be there when the OR is wide. The only one that I would say I "missed" was exactly where I got out of my short at 102.08. This was the EOR low and my trojan horse indicator confirmed the trap for a quick long back to highs but I was too relieved to get out of my short that I didnt focus on anything else.

Will keep doing the PMA until I prove that it does not help me during the day. Today's PMA covered all possible scenarios I could think of and eventually it ended up being closest to scenario 3 but the question I will ask at the end of each day is whether it helps me with my execution during the day since my trading revolves around about 10 lines on my chart and my mind's interpretation of the story that the market is telling.

TST wise today ended close to the peak of the sine wave that the p&l has been riding since this combine started but I wont be surprised if this is where it turns around for me as a trader. The shakes are gone, there is no ambiguity about entries, exits are known with enough probability to make all this consistently profitable.

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LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
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Pre-Market Analysis:


What actually happened:

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LogicalTrader
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7:59 AM: Short 101.49
8:04 AM: Stop to par
8:07 AM: Stopped out at par. Should I have taken the developing OR low? Will ponder later. Went 27 ticks in favor
8:09 AM: Trying one more time from same level. Dont like the 101.44 level against me. Its a bet - hoping it breaks.
8:15 AM: Stop to par - again.
8:20 AM: Stopped out at par again. Went 19 ticks in favor. Will wait for 101.64 to short again or I missed it.
8:35 AM: Last try short. I forced this one. Didnt like the confirmation
8:45 AM: 3rd time, stop to par.
8:52 AM: Some stops run above 101.55. Hoping this will give it a push...
8:59 AM: It did give it a push, only enough to collect some more stops on the other side below 101.42. Trade is still short to 101.10 or at least OR low. Thinking about time stop, hmmmmm...
9:04 AM: Its the "Stop Collector" algo in action so far. Some more shorts collected above 101.50.
9:07 AM: Got my stop. 101.40 level stood its ground. This one went 26 ticks.
9:13 AM: Short from Asian low with confirmation. What kept me from reversing at 101.40? Will ponder later.
9:18 AM: Stopped and re-entry short from EOR low. Will WOR high hold? (Picture says WOR low, should be high). Free trade as I write this. Target 101.69ish. Thinking 5 ticks before OR high.
9:23 AM: Got me at par. I may have gotten too aggressive on this one. I had the Asian low and EOR low in my favor. Went 19 ticks in favor. If I was trading for 15 ticks, would have been done by now
9:30 AM: Longs only now. Shorts for real scalps only unless bias changes.
9:50 AM: I might be done for the day. Need to record this thought: Have to consider days range with the ATR to figure out the odds of a move continuing.
10:00 AM: Trying long for Euro high. Trade basis is A up confirmed, TL long, order flow confirmed on smaller chart but not the main chart.
10:09 AM: That went a little, wanted to protect it but hesitated. Order flow confirmed a little lower, hesitated again to take it long. Actually got into it at 101.80 and bailed for whatever reason.
10:13 AM: S&P spiking on news seems like... whatever it is has no impact on CL
10:16 AM: Now it could go higher since I am not in it . Done for the day. Hindsight analysis later. Down 26 ticks today. Will mess up TST stats but I am not trading for stats anymore.
10:45 AM: See lots of resistance at Euro OR. Trying one more short from 102.06. Will try to keep it a scalp. Order flow confirms in all charts this time. The only negative is that its an A up and I am really pushing it now.
10:52 AM: Its a dog fight. Leaving stop at entry. Want to see 101.69 for this to make sense.
11:19 AM: Patience pays. Got OR high. Out at 101.63 for 43 cents. Now definitely done for the day. Hindsight analysis later. Wonder if we will see 101.10 now
11:30 AM: If I had any more fight left in me, I would be long at 101.60. Getting all sorts of confirmation to go long. Of course, its an A up and this is the OR high so thats definitely notable.

Hindsight analysis:
PMA helps reinforce the levels so I will keep that going. Also going to attach an "after the fact" picture to compare PMA with what actually happened like I did today.

Overall, very happy with the current trading method. Feel very comfortable leaning on these levels. I would have made over 100 ticks today if I was taking 15-20 ticks, which I will once size increases, so very happy to note that 7 out of the 8 trades today went at least 15 ticks before coming back. The only 2 losses were the ones I forced without enough confirmation and concrete levels to lean on.

Also happy to note the my "trojan horse" algo works well to identify order flow. Attaching picture for ES to note that some fine tuning is still required but so far it is doing a great job for both CL and ES and combined with these levels to lean on, this looks like my holy grail.

That last long from 101.60 that I mentioned would have gone about 25 ticks. Knowing me, I would have trailed to par and got nothing on it but would like to note that the level I was gunning for since the morning did finally get hit at 101.10.

TST wise, today's p&l does not represent the progress made today but this is just the 4th of 5th day with the new plan. Didn't someone wise say that this is a marathon and not a sprint? Thats exactly how I am treating it now.

I will have a good night. Back bright and early tomorrow.

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  #52 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
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No Inventory report scheduled today looks like so normal OR range for today.


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  #53 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received

6:48 AM: So far price playing ping pong between EOR high and WOR low. Order flow suggests up so far but who knows. That could change in a blink. Watching EOR/Euro low for a potential long.
7:07 AM: Note: Cancelled long order at 101.16. Orderflow became neutral after suggesting long. Will wait to see what happens. Maybe reconsider if little lower.
7:12 AM: Long from break of lows. Looking for 101.20 or 101.40. Short bias if stopped. Will bring stop to par at 101.10
7:17 AM: Took the stop. Will wait now for better location. Note: a slightly wider stop would have been better. The location, order flow was fine. Would take it again.
7:57 AM: Marking potential ES entries/exits based on similar plan as CL to review after a few days. I was at my desk when the attached ES Trade 1 took place. Mentally noted the long at 98.25 with a 1706 target. Meanwhile CL is "thinking". 3 catalyst times ahead - 8 AM, 8:15 AM and 8:30 AM to watch for.
8:00 AM: Long at retest of developing OR low. Got out with 18 ticks. This was a deviation from the plan. Should have waited for at least 30 ticks. As noted in the previous long, 101.20 - 101.40 is still achievable.
8:22 AM: OR 101.18 - 100.82. So far looks like an A up. Wish I would have held the long from 100.86
8:29 AM: More . Hit 102.40. Missed trade of the day. Will be very careful now as I would be had I stayed in it.
8:53 AM: Note: ES target 1706 hit. The horse hasnt confirmed an exit yet. 1707.25 would be my exit right now.
8:56 AM: More . I couldn't figure out where to get long on an A up confirmed day. Missed it. Next CL area is 102. This was the classic failed A down to A up trade. ES exit right now is 1711.75.
9:21 AM: My head is messed up now. Didnt take the short from 101.95. Was good for 30 ticks at least. Might have to call it a day right here.
9:24 AM: mfb took the same long from 100.93. Got out at 101.38, re-entered and I am sure held it till 102. Probably went short around 101.95 and got another 30 ticks. Will check his journal later. Gets too distracting for my own good. Yup, he did exactly that.
9:55 AM: twiddling thumbs. Would be interested in longs if we get to 101.45-101.50 area, otherwise might be done for the day. The horse suggests we might test a little higher - at least 102.20 or even 102.40. Haven't seen capitulation yet on the up side
10:10 AM: Long from pullback to 102. Not enough confirmation so location might be dicey but hypothesis is a test of 102.40 might be in the play here.
10:14 AM: Was thinking whether I should just take 30 ticks or go for 102.40 and in the meantime target got hit at 102.31 so 30 ticks it is - out flat. BTW 102.40 just got hit so the hypothesis was correct, just needed a location to get long. After 102.40-50 area, 102.80 is next.
10:25 AM: Still havent seen capitulation. The short horses on all charts are silent. Do we have more to go here? 102.80, 103.20?
10:49 AM: Passive mode now. Or rather opportunistic mode now. Making a note about the horse indicating initiated buying at 102. Picture attached. The long was at 102.07 if this ends up being the leg up.
11:14 AM: Wow! Got to feed my horse right. This might be my Trojan Stallion - the algo buster! Wouldn't short this even at 102.70. This is as bullish as I have seen. The horse gave me 2 opportunities to get long.
1:00 PM: Tried long from 102.61 for possible run towards the highs. Trailed stop to par after it moved about 15 ticks. Got stopped. Slipped a tick.

Hindsight Analysis:

Not much different in hindsight. I think the tools that I have called it right as it was happening. The order flow algo (aka "Trojan Stallion" is what I will call it now) was right on the money 3 days in a row. The levels worked great. I saw the opportunities and missed them. Got some crumbs but so not representative of the true potential here.

TST wise a good day. 4 more days to go, need to make about 65 ticks. Stats are still messed up but not worried about them.

Overall a disappointing day from the execution point of view but looking forward to using these tools to their true potential.

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  #54 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received

I am unsure if the inventory report is today. Will have to confirm that later.


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  #55 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received

5:41 AM: I am unsure about trading this early so will try it for a couple of days to see if there is any advantage. Took a short from EOR low with confirmation. Got stopped.
5:51 AM: The setup was still there so re-entered a few ticks higher. Looking for developing Euro low or WOR low. It doesnt move much this early on
6:04 AM: After 10-12 ticks move in favor moved stop to par. This will take some time getting used to - just too slow
6:10 AM: Stopped at par.
6:40 AM: The confirmations are different in low volume. The edge isnt great pre-market so I might have to let it go trading early morning.
7:15 AM: The hypothesis was correct in looking for a move from EOR low/WOR high down to developing Euro low or even WOR low. Just couldn't execute correctly. Will research this...
7:20 AM: Inventory report is at 11 AM today. Strange that an hour earlier the EIA website had a message saying something like the report wont be out but now its gone so assuming that report is going to be out at 10 AM. So OR would be 7:30 AM-10:05 AM today.
8:03 AM: Got long from 101 level thinking pullback to WOR low. Didnt happen. Quick stop out. There wasnt enough confirmation or maybe stop was too tight. Hindsight analysis later. Have to be careful now. 1 bullet left. BTW, this is 100 ticks from my first short today. Didnt execute it well enough. Hypothesis was correct on being short.
8:13 AM: Current options: pullback to 101.10 short, pullback to WOR low short, long from 100.60 area. Thats it so far.
8:15 AM: Got super confirmation for long. Took it and stop already to par. Have to protect from max loss today.
8:29 AM: Got out with 11 ticks. Could still go but I saw what I saw to get out in terms of order flow. Plus 101.10 is coming up which is a potential short. Hindsight analysis later.
8:35 AM: It happened again. I got out, in hindsight, for little reason. Trade was good for 30+ ticks. Just takes a bit to learn to trust your own analysis. Maybe someone else can trade for me . Wifey? Hell no!
8:45 AM: Still not trusting my research. Why didnt I short 101.10 area? The stallion said go short.
8:53 AM: ES chart confirmed a short (image attached). Hypothetical trade. Report in a few minutes so protect when possible.
9:12 AM: ES trade stopped out for loss if not protected. Went about 2 points in favor. Technically an A up confirmed now so pullback to OR high was the long. I didnt mark it then so no trade, even hypothetically.
9:25 AM: Just checked mfb's journal. It is encouraging to note that he looked at the 101.80 as a short area, didnt take it. Went long at the same area that I did AND held it. Then shorted the 101.10 area and got out around 100.50. What a difference execution makes.
9:38 AM: Pulled back to 101.10 but I had no confirmation so skipped it. Short was from 101.01 if I had confirmation. Will research later...
9:57 AM: That would have been good for 30+ ticks. Stallion didnt agree... hmmm...
10:00 AM: No inventory numbers today looks like.
10:12 AM: Long from below the 100.60 area based on super stallion confirmation. Would be much better if entry was above 100.60 but lets see. Stopped out before I could finish writing. I am pushing it now after having missed what would have ended my day profitably. Taking a break.
10:23 AM: Good trap at 100.20. Stallion confirmed long. Stop already to par. Want to hold this considering the ATR is already large enough today and this might be the low of day
10:26 AM: Got my stop at entry and rocketed upwards. Running out of adrenaline here.
10:30 AM: I am going to go throw up now. Thats the 3rd missed/got out early trade today that went 30+ ticks!!!
10:35 AM: Meanwhile ES has left the building. As noted before, had I seen the A up earlier, this would be a trade still long from 1711.75. All the pieces are there, I just have to put them together.
11:12 AM: Got long at the break to new lows by a couple of ticks at 100.16, had great confirmation. It came back and took my stop by the tick and is already 20 ticks in favor of my entry. Dont know how to describe this day. Wont think about it now. Need to step aside for a while.

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  #56 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received


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  #57 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received

7:05 AM: Long from break/pullback from 101.70 area. Looking for WOR high at 102.17.
7:09 AM: And stopped. Will rest now until past 7:30.
7:15 AM: Order flow still suggests long. 101.64-70 area is there. Might go again. Trying 101.71
7:22 AM: Cancelled. Letting it go until pit session time.
8:21 AM: Short on further sell side confirmation below WOR low. Actually I am not sure where the WOR is. Does it adjust or not. Will see. Just realized, this could be a failed A down. Its a mess.
8:28 AM: Got stop to par after 10+ cent move in favor. Not sure about this. WOR low has held so far to the tick. Hoping for downside targets of possibly Euro low, but will take whatever I get based on order flow.
8:37 AM: This ought to qualify as an A down. unsure where to exit so will just hold for a typical failed A up, A down confirmed setup. Currently resisting at Asian high.
8:51 AM: Exited EOR high for 51 cents.
8:55 AM: That was a good confirmation for a long too. Will have to keep these things in mind. Confirmed exit for a trade might also be a confirmed entry for a reverse trade.
10:10 AM: Short from pullback to OR low. Good confirmation, maybe should have waited for OR low to actually get hit. Will see what happens
10:15 AM: Now OR low got tagged. Stop is still good. Lets see if it goes now.
10:30 AM: Stop to par. 101.22 is holding things for some reason. Below that we could see 100.87.
10:45 AM: Got nothing to lose so will sit on it. Its an A down.
11:00 AM: Boy, I should have held it to where I knew it was going to go. It got to 100.87 but I got out at 101.04 for 36 ticks. Good job holding as much as I did (50 minutes) but should have had a bit more patience, like I had said, what did I have to lose? Nothing.
11:04 AM: Entered long at 100.89. Stop already to par. Going for 30ish ticks.
11:17 AM: TST Combine target achieved. Wanted to get out with 30 ticks but also had one eye on the TST target so got out with 26 ticks. Such a difference execution makes. You can have as many ideas as you want but its worthless if not executed correctly. Total 101 ticks today.

Hindsight Analysis:
2 trades were missed in the morning. The long from WOR low and then the short from the failed A up. Both would have worked and both had decent confirmation.

These types of days are easier to trade instead of very fast moving days where order flow keeps shifting every few minutes. It allows you to stay in trades longer because order flow remains consistent throughout the trade.

Notable things in the last few days are that I have been able to correctly anticipate the probability of where price may go but only today, I got the execution correct, primarily because it was a slow moving day but it wasn't choppy by any means. On other days, I still need to do what I did today. Get into the trades early so that the stop becomes wider automatically. Using the faster chart for confirmation worked well today. So going forward, keep using the faster chart for confirmation at pre-determined areas. Also, just like today, keep in mind that exits of one trade may be entries for the next one like the last trade today which I took but the missed the one after the exit of the first trade.

Similar concept is also working well in ES. Faster chart for confirmation and similar levels for location.

TST: The current P&L is greater than the required to be eligible for funding but I was just told that I still have to trade the remaining 2 days. I plan to not trade any differently just to clear the combine. If the opportunity is there, I will take the trades.

Good confidence boost today, reversing the execution debacle from yesterday.

I will have a good weekend. Back bright and early Monday morning. Inventory report Monday and 1st day of new contract month = expect great movement.

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  #58 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received

The CL combine will end this week. Whether I stay above the combine target or not is irrelevant. The goal isn't to achieve the combine target, it is to achieve consistency and I still have work to do in that area.

In hindsight, Friday was one of the most favorable types of days for my trading methodology. Price opened away from Asian/Euro range and bounced around in between making it easier to pick logical trade locations. I yet have to successfully trade all the different types of scenarios where price moves out of the overnight range, including the US open range OR the US open range is really wide and price does not break either ways - basically when the trade locations are not there, I cannot foresee how I will trade it.

The purpose of writing all this down is to make me think what I would do in the absence of the usual trade locations to pick and I think I will just have to sit on my hands until I can determine favorable locations to trade during such sessions.

The PMA isnt helping that much so I am dropping it going forward. Instead, I am just going to focus on the pre open trading scenarios, if there are any.

I will complete the remaining 2 days of the CL combine and then start with my pending 50K combine. For these next 2 days, I will profile hypothetical ES trades as price moves and mark them in the journal. I dont think I can trade 2 markets at the same time but in order for my 50K combine to at least roll over, I have to trade ES to at least get the P&L above 0. Since I am seeing similarities in both ES and CL, I am not sure which one will suit my initial trading more so wouldn't hurt to try and profile ES while trading CL for a few days.

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  #59 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received

Late start today.

6:45: Missed long from 100.04. Hadn't yet completed analyzing overnight activity and saw the opportunity at 100.04 to go long. Placed the order and then cancelled. The whole day is still ahead.
7:58: This is uncharted territory for me. Wait and watch approach now. After the 2nd push, it does not seem like its over. We could see 1 more push down probably right at the open. All this based on order flow.
8:02: They tried and failed. There was no chance to get into the bounce from 99.79
8:06: The algo lights lit up exactly at 8:05. Went short 100.22 based on previous theory and confirmation is there.
8:11: Stopped out. The idea is still valid. Will wait for confirmation
8:17: Same idea. Trying again from 100.43. Last try short.
8:21: Nope. Got me again. If it has to go, it will go without me now.
9:05: Short with slight confirmation from 100.38
9:20: Hasnt gone anywhere. Inventories in 10 minutes. I might have to cut this short soon.
9:28: Out with small loss. The order flow is still short but cannot trade the report
9:43: Order flow was short. How can a 1 lot trade trade this?
9:52: Short from 100.28 from previous support turned resistance. Order flow confirms. Last trade of the day if stopped.
9:56: Scratched. Got nervous. Will wait for better trade location.
10:13: Kick in the butt for me. This one was a good trade. Probably see new lows now. Patterns suggesting 99.53. If they crack 100 again.
10:18: Staying out until I see price at the OR high/low - 99.79 - 100.70. Definitely difficult price action today. No clear cut direction or intention yet. Dont want to scalp order flow yet. Reserving that for winning days.
10:31: More kicks in the butt
10:50: Algos having a great day today. Frustrating everyone who is thinking. Eventually, we should see some fireworks. I want to be there when they happen. 1 bullet left. Saving it.
10:53: Whole bunch of buying came in just below 100. Not forced but initiated. Note for the future. This might be the incentive shorts wanted.
11:41: All I see is slow drift up and then algos collecting the buy orders. I think <99.80 still in the hunt here. There is no good location to short here.
11:55: This may be it for me today. Got to go. Unless we have fireworks in the last 30 minutes.
12:17: 99.53 to the tick! Question I have to answer is, how could I have gotten short? OR rather, stayed short. Gone short 4 times already. Idea was right, couldnt find a good location and when I found one, it was either the report or me getting nervous blah blah.
14:10: There was some amazing sell side activity - all initiated, not forced at around 99.70 - do we have the LTF entering a position here or calling it quits?

Hindsight Analysis:

I am afraid of days like these - which is what I meant to address in my post yesterday - to prepare myself to not look for mandatory participation in the markets. I didn't go crazy today so its thats a good thing and I know that on a good day I can make a lot more ticks than I lost today.

The lack of opportunity today got me thinking...

Having a trading plan is good - it defines certain parameters under which you always look to operate but NOW I dont think a trading plan should be a set of rules that are set in stone and you MUST adhere to them otherwise you are not doing a good job etc etc. I think a trading plan should be more like guidelines that define the trading ideas with its description and its dos and donts BUT which also leaves enough room for IMPROVISATION.

I am writing down all this to clear a few things I was thinking while the day progressed today. I wanted to start scalping for 15-25 ticks today while waiting for my levels and I let many clear scalp setups go by and saw most of them work for anywhere between 10 and 35 ticks. Some didnt work out but not by more than 7-8 ticks. Overall, I know I would have at least broken even today if not finished up. But, I didnt take them because they are not part of my trading plan and thats what started this thought process.

I dont think I want to keep the practice of adding all the possible setups that I can trade to the plan before I can trade them. I dont even think some of them can be described - for instance, pre-open, CL formed a low of 99.80 and right a 8 AM, it tries to go one more time only to be met with a forceful rejection at 99.79 - so forceful, that it jumped almost 15 ticks in a millisecond. My rules prevented me from taking that long because it was too far away from the low by the time it could be taken by a human. So I think I should be able to take such trades without having to worry if I am deviating from my plan. There are enough hurdles already so why should I add one more by requiring every trade I take to fall within a strict set of rules.

Part of the hesitation and low confidence in entries comes from the fact that I think I am deviating from the plan and if I lose I am going to feel like crap because I didnt follow the plan. Its just adding more stress to an already stressful job.

No decisions/changes today but will keep thinking about this...

1 more day to go in the TST combine and I don't feel any extra pressure to perform any differently tomorrow. Just like today, I will try to get better at gaining consistency and if this combine does not work out in the process, so be it. Will move on to the next.

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  #60 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received

Price has remained within the asian range - 99.25-99.58 mostly briefly spiking the asian high for a tick or so and returning back. Before NY OR is formed, higher probability trade would be a failed break low of the asian session. No bias for me but probabilities of range bound day between the current lows and WOR is higher so will look for that. Break below current lows is uncharted territory for me.

6:30: Algo lights lit up. Could see some action pretty soon.
6:45: They have held 99.30 all thru the london session. Trying to hold once more. Looking for 99.25 failed break.
7:00: Didnt happen yet. They seemed to have held 99.30 once again at least for now.
8:00: I kept waiting for the 99.24 bus while the 99.30 bus came along and said "you want to come, going to 100" and I said, "No, I will wait for the 99.24". What a doofus!
8:10: Order flow suggests more move up, but what will happen at 100? My guess, they blow through it - just a guess, not betting for it. I have missed 3 entries so far. Domestic duties called so no regrets. Will be patient. All good things....
8:37: Long from 99.67. Early entry due to jittery fingers but in about the area I was looking to enter. Order flow suggests long, .75 is a short term resistance area so will watch that.
8:46: Stop to par. Its past .75 level but who knows.
8:55: They will most likely take 100 as previously determined. I got out at 99.99.
8:55: Now what do I do? I am above the TST combine target. If I stop now, I may be eligible for funding. To trade more or not to trade more, that is the question.
9:00: Clearing one TST combine after 6 attempts is a milestone in my trading career. I want to keep it that way. So done for the day but today is a 100+ tick type of day because the peripheries are known. 99.30 is most likely the low now and it wont be surprising if we see 100.97.
9:40: 100 is a buy right now. Super order flow confirmation. Stop can be 99.95. That strong.
9:43: Oops!
10:04: Good thing I am out for the day. Must be some sort of news because ES also dropped about 13 points. Clearly would have had my back side whooped if I was trading this.
10:16: I have 98.40 as the last level from various sources.
10:25: Order flow going long at 98.75-98.68. Wouldn't have taken it but just noting it for future reference.
10:40: Would have been good for 30 ticks or so.
10:57: 99.25-99.30 are is showing good short order flow. Not surprising since this is the area from the morning that held all through the london session. Also OR low. Maybe this is where they say, enough, lets go see 98.40.
11:22: Wow, right again. Good for 30 ticks at least. Some support here at 98.95 area but this might be the final push down.
11:25: This either goes down in the next couple of minutes or so or I would at least exit here. This could become a minor longish area.
11:30: Should go down.. order flow back in favor.
11:40: 226K contracts traded today. Do they have more bullets left for this push? BADA BING! As I was writing this.
12:20: Wasnt wrong about this being a 100+ tick day. 1 more push to 98.40...
12:53: That was fun. Wish I traded it but still it was fun. Now it has my permission to meander its way up
1:07: Since we are having fun, order flow calls long at 98.30
1:13: Trail stops getting hit it seems. If that is the case, this could go on. Otherwise, they really want to close below 98.50.

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  #61 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received

Big milestone in my path to success as a trader today. After yesterday's loss, I played it conservative on this last day of the combine and got the necessary ticks in to get above the target mark and called it a day.

Got an email from TST that the combine is under review by the Scout team.

Plan of Action:
Even if the completed combine is considered for funding, it will take some time for everything to get setup before I can trade a live account. That would be a big gap and I cannot just sit idle until then. It is also possible that I may not meet all the objectives and the funding is declined for some reason. For both of the above, I think I am going to continue trading the way I have been on my 50K combine starting tomorrow. I still have 17 days left in it and enough trading days remaining before it expires. I am not yet ready to trade ES yet so I will just test my ES theory the remainder of the week and start trading it Monday most likely.

Big thanks to @mfbreakout and others in his thread for sharing their trading ideas. I am much more comfortable trading this way than I was before. Still have a lot to learn and improve upon but glad to see that I am headed in the right direction.

Back bright and fresh tomorrow morning.




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  #62 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received

Widest and wildest overnight action for me so far. Not sure how to approach this so will take a wait and watch approach until pit session opens. I have no levels here other than the ones that have formed overnight and will form before 8:15. Dont have to trade, aware of that.

8:20: Long 96.35 from failed break of lows. Stop to par. Too much time and it hasnt shot up so protecting it.
8:23: Stopped out at par.
8:27: Maybe too aggressive but short 96.46 with order flow confirmation. Will look to bail at new lows.
8:29: Stop to par. Cannot figure out who is in control.
8:30: Same result. Standing aside for known levels before taking another one.
8:36: Could have scalped 10-12 ticks. But do I want to do that? Dont think so. Should break out of this range soon.
8:39: Per rules, OR does not form until 9:45 today being inventory day. So could be chop until then.
8:53: No clue what they are doing, every high was met with enough order flow to reverse. The last one being at 96.60-65. So scared of longs right now. At the same time 969.32 has held 3 times now. Looks like a box until proven otherwise.
8:57: Again pushing it down from 96.50. This could go. I am hesitant this morning. Cancelled short twice from 96.48-47
9:01: Short from 96.49
9:03: Stop to par. Heavy resistance again at 32. Break or not.
9:05: Broke. Target 96. Hold or not? 32 is the line in sand
9:09: Didnt trust my own algo. Was yelling at me to get out at 96.20. Poor trade management on my part. Had 30 ticks in hand.
9:18: Short one more time from 96.65.
9:19: Wow, fingers are jittery today. Fat fingered exit with 2 cents. Standing aside now for some time. Head is not in the game today.
9:23: Would have taken a stop on the last short but I still see red mostly.
9:45: I have got to get rid of the jitters and just trade what I see. Cannot keep missing trades like this. This could easily have been a done day by now.
10:35: Its an A up now and most of the trading has already been executed so I am looking at possibly not taking any more trades today. 220K contracts traded already.

Hindsight Analysis:
Today's problem was that I let my confirmation tool dictate my trades and in the process didn't pay attention to the big picture. It was a failed A down and I should have been looking for longs when I was "seeing red". Even mentioned that 96.32 was the line in the sand so why was I banking on it breaking? It held and held 5-6 times and all those longs would have worked very well for my profit target of 25-35- ticks.

Good thing I stopped trading when I did. I started off late, unprepared and I should have not traded today at all. I definitely need more screentime with my current setup. It works, thats for sure. I need to work too - both the market and the trader need to be there.

Attaching pictures and updating the journal at the start of each trade is a distraction in the heat of the moment and I dont think I want to do that going forward. Instead, I will update the journal when the pressure eases off. I so understand what it means to "be in the zone now". With CL, at least, it needs undivided attention and unflinching belief to execute well and thats what I am going to focus tomorrow onward.

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  #63 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
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Range bound Euro session so far. They have spiked the asian high and low and stayed within that range so far. Eventually it will break out of this range. Until then, trade the box. I have no bias, no predictions. Just trade the charts. One of the possible plays is a long from another spike lower to 96.86.

6:05: Algo's started up. Something happens at around 6 AM. The DOM behavior changes. To me, its just time for some algos to start their job.
6:52: Long 96.92, -10. Then long again 96.86 based on the scenario determined before. If stopped, will wait for pit open. Otherwise looking for 97.40-97.60 area for exit.
7:57: Messed it up completely this morning. The purpose of writing down "If stopped, will wait for pit open" was to help actually do that. Got long 4 times - all stopped. Now definitely a timeout.
8:06: Whats up with 96.20. Someone wants price to stay below exactly this price. Broke finally but a whole lot of buying was absorbed there.
8:17: Clearly on the wrong side today. Just as yesterday. Still have a long way to go. Proven wrong 6 times in a row now. Clearly the short was up there at 97.50 area.
8:35: Most likely a failed A down now that 20 minutes are up.
9:02: Order flow waaaay too different today. Cannot follow it. 7 losses so far and I am not sure what is going on. Its not the normal routine today, thats for sure. 96.20 is like a magnet today. Really heavy trading exactly at that spot. Now worried about the losses. How else will I learn? It almost looks like a whole bunch of buying has happened at this 96-96.30 level and lots of people banking on this going up.
9:20: Whole lot of stops below 95.95. Different algos in play today. Definitely not a usual day where you can trade regular order flow.
9:58: Different order flow but still got to take the perfect setups. Long from 96.04. Out at 96.45. Took 31 minutes. I wish I could hold till 97 because thats where this is headed.
10:10: Potential long from 96.40 area. Not taking it for lack of a better level or uber favorable order flow.
10:25: Scalping opportunities are there. Wondering if I should try and get to breakeven. Whatever it is, it will be on the long side. Its a failed A down.
10:50: Old habits are dying really hard. Even though now I know what order flow is telling me and I have big bold lines and various symbols telling me favorable areas to take trades, I have taken about 4 trades today based on my old habits. Just took one - Saw 96.50 area break, pulled back to 96.50 and I went long thinking this is where it goes to 97 but didnt see why the pullback started and how strong it was. If anyone asks me, why 97? I really dont know. Got to STOP THINKING and just trading the charts! What a doofus!

Hindsight Analysis:

I had no business trading the pre-open the way I did. One trade was maybe OK to see if the Asian low held but beyond that, I should have waited for my prime setups.

I think lately, I am letting my confirmation tool become the trade entry tool. Instead of waiting for my levels and then confirming the entry, I am taking trades just based on order flow randomly. 19 trades today and the one that worked was the only one per plan and was responsible for cutting my losses in half. I should have held that one from OR low to OR high - been through this so many times in my head.

The transition from a 30K combine to a 50K combine needs preparation and I wasnt ready for it. I should really be trading 2 contracts if thats what keeps me focused on cherry picking my trades. Will have to think about it... 19 trades in a day??? I think thats one too many!

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LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
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7:01: Long 97.18 from EOR high. Order flow confirms so far but entry might be a little early. Will try once more if stopped.
7:05: Stop to par after 10 ticks move in favor. This could test lower so got to protect. Otherwise will look for exit around Asian or Euro high.
7:08: Starting today, taking only 1 entry per setup instead of getting in multiple times at the same area. This will determine trade management method, initial stop loss, move to par etc.
7:12: Didnt take much heat on this one. Now just got to manage it right.
7:35: Wanted to hold but with 1 contract cannot do much. So out at 97.62 for 44 ticks.
8:00: 2 quick losses trying long from break of pre-open developing OR. Should have been only 1 per the rule I just established less than an hour ago. -18 total. Long day ahead. Got to keep it cool.
8:05: 97 is the line in the sand. If that breaks, I am not sure what. So will attempt a failed break of 97 long.
8:06: This could have been a close the "gap" move to 97.11.
8:09: This is a new pattern in orderflow - I will now call it the "big boys fight" which is what is going on at 97.20, same thing that was going on yesterday at 96.20. For me, this means stay out!
8:16: OR established: 97.70 - 97.02. Lets see if we get a failed A down which would be in line with the thought about 97 before.
8:18: In hindsight, the exit of my first trade was also the entry for a short - I still have trouble seeing this. So if I would be short, when would I get out? That could be my long now.
8:23: Orderflow short right here at .30. Wonder what they are doing. Trap longs, push below 97, then rip to the upside?
8:46: Short 97.32 for a scalp. This could be classified as a failed A down. But will look for 97 if my theory is correct.
9:12: Clearly my theory was wrong. The failed A down was established before my short attempt. Will remember that next time. Now this is an A up. Order flow in favor at OR high. Long from 97.64.
9:15: Stop to par after 10 tick move in favor. It could still try to collect some longs.
9:17: Stopped at par. Will try lower but not right here. Maybe around 97.50
9:26: Short 97.53. Just following charts now. No theories.
9:30: Its a big boy fight. Caught in the middle.
9:35: Stop to par. Big boys could blow either way.
9:48: Short again 97.54. Order flow strongly suggests move down. Hope I am reading it right.
10:00: Still a big boy fight here. Unsure what to do so will just stay in it until it moves 10-12 ticks in favor and move stop to par.
10:02: Stop to par. I will leave this area alone if stopped now.
10:04: Broke as expected. Now have to manage it right and not get too cocky.
10:21: Thinking of all those who shorted 97.80 sitting comfortably with runners on. Just need more screen time. This is doable.
10:25: Big mistake on my part. Turned a winner into a loser. Very poor trade management.
10:37: Need a reset in my thinking. Small targets are OK. Does not need to be at least 30 ticks every time. Have to go with the charts. 97.30 held with good confirmation. That was also a long from the order flow point of view. There are 4 BE trades today, each went for at least 10-15 ticks. Those add up. I am getting the entries right but trade management needs to improve a lot.
11:03: They might blow thru the OR high here. Will look for long on pullback.
11:05: Maybe not. Big boys playground. Maybe I am done for the day
11:58: Two more losses in lunch hour dead chop. Just not timing it right today. Short from 97.73 now. Should have shorted this level the first or the second time it was here. Lets see where it goes this time.
1:03: Done for the day. Learnt a lot today. Hindsight analysis later.

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 Tiger45 
San Diego, CA, USA
 
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iNeo View Post
7:01: Long 97.18 from EOR high. Order flow confirms so far but entry might be a little early. Will try once more if stopped.

Amazing entry. How did you call that?

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LogicalTrader
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Amazing entry. How did you call that?

It was the Euro OR high. Typical pullback point to go long. Got lucky on the timing. Usually I take some heat - my guess is everyone does this being CL.

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 jmsUK 
Manchester, Greater Manchester, UK
 
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Thanks for sharing. You look to be making good progress. Nice job
Good luck with getting funded.

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LogicalTrader
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TST has approved funding pending live trader prep which is similar to a combine with rules that are the same as a funded account. A few things change and I believe they will help me further.

I will be required to stop trading before I lose more than 50% of my realized daily profit. So a day like yesterday would not turn into a loser. I am happy about this rule.

I cannot be in a position before a major economic event. I checked the eco calendar I have been asked to use and most of the events in the list occur at 7:30 in the morning and the major news event after 8 is the CL inventories report and I dont want to be in a position before such events so that also helps. I will just get out when the bid/ask stack thins if I am in a position.

These are a good addition to the existing ruleset. I believe they will help.

Also established is the fact that I do not have to clear a larger combine to get more funding. Once I progress to becoming a senior trader, I will be able to talk to TST folks to see if I can have more equity to trade larger size. Until then, I have to trade CL with 1 contract and I am perfectly fine with that.

So, the next goal is to trade at least 10 days and get to $750 profit target. Once achieved, I should have a funded account.

Plan of Action:
Lately I started trading the smaller/faster chart but it has been a disadvantage because my number of trades have increased. Previously, the "setups" were fewer so I was forced to wait and act only when a good setup occurred. This past week, I have meddled with my entry setup and it has hurt me. So I am going back to my slower charts where I dont get excited about small changes in the order flow. My journal from the past 2-3 days is hilarious to me after the fact . What a doofus!

Even though the LTP account is available to trade starting Monday, I will not start trading it for at least another week. I will instead trade in my 50K combine using the previous slower setup and see if I can get back to replicating my previous results. Once comfortable, I will trade the LTP account.

My trading plan is very simple and its best described by the man himself:

mfbreakout View Post
Day trading= Video Games.

3 boxes or reference points

Asian Session, Euro session and NY session. Price rotates among these 3 boxes. 5 minutes chart. It's always the same. Price has no VALUE. During each session highs and lows of previous sessions gets tested.

Buy low and sell high.

Simple.

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 FKtrader 
WA Europe
 
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iNeo View Post
TST has approved funding pending live trader prep which is similar to a combine with rules that are the same as a funded account. A few things change and I believe they will help me further.

I will be required to stop trading before I lose more than 50% of my realized daily profit. So a day like yesterday would not turn into a loser. I am happy about this rule.

I cannot be in a position before a major economic event. I checked the eco calendar I have been asked to use and most of the events in the list occur at 7:30 in the morning and the major news event after 8 is the CL inventories report and I dont want to be in a position before such events so that also helps. I will just get out when the bid/ask stack thins if I am in a position.

These are a good addition to the existing ruleset. I believe they will help.

Also established is the fact that I do not have to clear a larger combine to get more funding. Once I progress to becoming a senior trader, I will be able to talk to TST folks to see if I can have more equity to trade larger size. Until then, I have to trade CL with 1 contract and I am perfectly fine with that.

So, the next goal is to trade at least 10 days and get to $750 profit target. Once achieved, I should have a funded account.

Plan of Action:
Lately I started trading the smaller/faster chart but it has been a disadvantage because my number of trades have increased. Previously, the "setups" were fewer so I was forced to wait and act only when a good setup occurred. This past week, I have meddled with my entry setup and it has hurt me. So I am going back to my slower charts where I dont get excited about small changes in the order flow. My journal from the past 2-3 days is hilarious to me after the fact . What a doofus!

Even though the LTP account is available to trade starting Monday, I will not start trading it for at least another week. I will instead trade in my 50K combine using the previous slower setup and see if I can get back to replicating my previous results. Once comfortable, I will trade the LTP account.

My trading plan is very simple and its best described by the man himself:


Simple.

Hi,
I hope you the best of luck
cheers

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LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
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6:33: Long 97.60 from EOR high support.
6:50: Potential resistance here at WOR/Asian high. Stop to par.
6:55: As expected, having difficulty at .76 area. Past this, next area is 98. Will surely look to exit there.
7:11: Always an issue with me about taking early profits. Had 25 ticks. When should I have gotten out? Took a par stop. I saw the bigger resistance at previous settle at 97.86. Almost got out...
7:13: Another issue is that my entry was based on a support area that confirmed a long. It still is a support area so moving stop to par is the opposite of what I should be doing. Why am I selling where I should be buying?
7:18: Not buying yet. Will mostly wait until pit session starts. We could test WOR low which could be a better buy... who knows, it could just break down from here after the spike above WOR high. Leaving it alone until core setups form.
8:04: Thankful for my slower charts today. Would have been chopped up a couple of times by now if using faster charts.
8:10: Short from 97.70 at WOR high resistance. Chased it. And took a stop -12.
8:23: Long 97.91 from previous resistance turned support area. We are above WOR high. Its a long bias for me. Maybe a bit too early. Will try again if stopped from WOR high.
8:30: Major fight here. Stop has held.
8:32: Stopped out and re-entered long 97.83. Note about stops and levels. Which one was more likely to hold? Rez turned sup or WOR high? Need a bit more patience.
8:34: Not reading it right today. Got to stand aside now.
8:42: Good amount of sell side activity so far. Dwindling now. Leaving this area alone for now. Will wait a bit.
8:52: Confused if I should trade it from a failed A up perspective or WOR bias? So far pre-open and at open action was readable but couldn't capitalize. Now its a big boy fight at WOR high. Who's got the bigger gun with more bullets?
9:05: Had the right idea, just couldnt time it well enough. Now they are pushing to break 98 and might.
9:09: Last try long 97.89. Done for the day if stopped.
9:11: Stop to par. Got to hold it above 98 for 5 minutes and then the whole world sees it. Otherwise its a 30 tick box.
9:21: OR high will have rez. Holding still. Locked in a few ticks. Wont give it all back.
9:28: Failed A up vs WOR fight here. Who wins?
9:32: Maybe both win. I am out with 10 ticks. Hope it doesnt just get me and go
9:41: Got to go find a hole to bury myself now. Wow. 3 longs and nothing to show for it
10:01: Out from the short hibernation. Its a full bull bias now. Above WOR and A up confirmed. Looking for logical pullback levels to go long.
10:20: This could be it for the longs. Orderflow suggests two sided trading. Will look for a box and see if I can scalp out some ticks.
10:31: 98.80 - 98.40 potential box.
11:02: Order flow shows short. Tried one, no good. But definitely do not want to buy here. May short slightly higher which would be my last trade if stopped.
11:05: Short 98.53. Order flow confirms. Will look for OR high as target or possibly WOR high - all depends on what the charts say.
11:11: Par stop after 10 ticks in favor.
11:16: If trading 2, would have taken 1 off at 98.36-38 for 15 ticks at least. Lets see.
11:21: Good to see sellers are persistent at 98.35 area. Its favorable for a break downwards the longer they stay here. Otherwise, I got nothing to lose.
11:27: Out at 98.20 for 33 ticks. Wish I had a runner. This could go a bit more.
11:31: As long as we are wishing, wish I had 2 runners, one for Euro high and another for WOR high. Wouldn't be surprised if we see 97.76
11:54: Wouldnt go long or short here at OR high. Would stay short if I had more on. Weird day today, almost read it right. All said and done, this is the way to go - that is confirmed. These are the levels to lean on and trade off of. Nothing else matters in CL. Per the time rules, the longer it stays above OR, the better it is for longs. Longer time frame order flow is long. Shorter time frame is a mess.

Hindsight Analysis:
Missed trades prior/at open. The failed break of all lows and then the minor pullback from 98.20 at open. I was much fixated on the WOR and wasnt sure about fading the first move down to 97.42ish but the 2nd one could have been taken thinking pullback to WOR high - which it was.

I moved away from trailing my stop so why I did it on the trade of the day, I am not sure - fear of another breakeven after 30+tick in favor caused it but I have to consistently do the same thing even if it is to prove that it does not work. Today would have been a great day had I taken it.

Even while I watched the OR high break, I had marked the area I would exit at 98.70-98.80 based on fib extensions and I should have shorted that area once order flow confirmed it so strongly. Took the later short which saved the day but should have capitalized more.

I made the comment "longer it stays above OR high, better it is for longs" so what was the reason I didnt go long. A up confirmed, pullback to OR high = classic long entry. I had more than sufficient time to go long and there was nothing saying get out until we hit 98.65 area.

Good lessons learnt. Onward and upward....

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 jmsUK 
Manchester, Greater Manchester, UK
 
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Hi, thanks for update.
Did you know that in Europe, we changed clocks back one hour yesterday.
Also, would appreciate what EOR and WOR mean and what times are you using for these (please in CT).
No rush. Stay on task :-)
Thanks
Have a good one

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LogicalTrader
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jmsUK View Post
Hi, thanks for update.
Did you know that in Europe, we changed clocks back one hour yesterday.
Also, would appreciate what EOR and WOR mean and what times are you using for these (please in CT).
No rush. Stay on task :-)
Thanks
Have a good one

WOR = Weekly Open Range. Its the Asian session range of Sunday - the first day of the week. 6:30 PM to 1 AM central.
EOR = Euro Open Range. Its the first 5 minutes range of the Euro/London session. 2 AM - 2:05 AM.

I think we change our clocks 1st Sunday of November - this coming weekend.

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  #73 (permalink)
 jmsUK 
Manchester, Greater Manchester, UK
 
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iNeo View Post
WOR = Weekly Open Range. Its the Asian session range of Sunday - the first day of the week. 6:30 PM to 1 AM central.
EOR = Euro Open Range. Its the first 5 minutes range of the Euro/London session. 2 AM - 2:05 AM.

I think we change our clocks 1st Sunday of November - this coming weekend.


Thanks for your reply.
Could you please clarify a couple of points for me mainly in regard to time difference?
Yes I agree, looks like you change next Sunday.
At the moment, London is 5 hours ahead of Chicago.

You have the Sunday opening at 18:30CT and the finish of the session 01:00CT
I see the opening time as 17:00 =23:00 London time normally ie when time zones are synched .
Yesterday’s opening time was 22:00 London time = 17:00CT (after our time change and Far East)
What happens between 01:00 and 02:00 CT? I have prices but maybe you call that a dead zone.

In regard to Euro opening time 02:00CT (=08:00 London normally), does that relate to the normal time difference of 6 hours or have you adjusted for time difference?
In other words do you prefer to use the 08:00 London time for start of session or 07:00? I think of 08:00 as the start, but value your opinion.

One other thing, do you take the whole Sunday session through to the open of Europe for the opening range or just the opening 5 minutes on the Sunday.
Many TIA

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LogicalTrader
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jmsUK View Post
Thanks for your reply.
Could you please clarify a couple of points for me mainly in regard to time difference?
Yes I agree, looks like you change next Sunday.
At the moment, London is 5 hours ahead of Chicago.

I see your point now. Didnt get it before. I was thinking, "why is he telling me that they changed their clocks"? Duh! . Thank you.

Its not been too long since I have started using this method so I havent crossed all the t's etc. Checkout this thread if you want to know exactly how I am trying to trade: . mfbreakout's journal is what you should follow to learn this method.


jmsUK View Post
You have the Sunday opening at 18:30CT and the finish of the session 01:00CT
I see the opening time as 17:00 =23:00 London time normally ie when time zones are synched .
Yesterday’s opening time was 22:00 London time = 17:00CT (after our time change and Far East)
What happens between 01:00 and 02:00 CT? I have prices but maybe you call that a dead zone.

In regard to Euro opening time 02:00CT (=08:00 London normally), does that relate to the normal time difference of 6 hours or have you adjusted for time difference?
In other words do you prefer to use the 08:00 London time for start of session or 07:00? I think of 08:00 as the start, but value your opinion.
Many TIA

Between 1 and 2 AM central is dead zone, you are right. I havent adjusted for the daylight savings time difference when I calculate the Euro OR so thank you for pointing that out. Ideally, I should be keeping track of when the local exchange times change. Today's 2 AM and 3 AM range was close but not close enough or the algos that trade it arent programmed to consider the DST time shift in London either and thats probably why my first trade worked (sort of), I dont know .


jmsUK View Post
One other thing, do you take the whole Sunday session through to the open of Europe for the opening range or just the opening 5 minutes on the Sunday.
Many TIA

If you are asking about the weekly open range (WOR), then its the asian high/low range of Sunday, 6:30 PM - 1 AM, not 2 AM.

Think of it as 4 different ranges:
Asian Range = 6:30 PM - 1 AM
Euro Range = 2 AM - 7 AM
Euro Open Range = 2 AM - 2:05 AM
NY Open Range = 7:30 AM - 8:15 AM (except inventory Wednesdays when it is 7:30 AM - 9:45 AM).

The WOR is the first Asian range of the week.

These are the dynamic levels made available to lean against each day. Use a confirmation tool of your choice (cumulative delta, stochs, macd, whatever) at these levels to enter a trade or not. And use Mark Fisher's ACD method for the big picture. Its been 3 weeks since I have been actively trading this and so far I am convinced this method of trading has a high probability of success. The more screen time I get, the better I will become.

Hope this helps.

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  #75 (permalink)
 jmsUK 
Manchester, Greater Manchester, UK
 
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iNeo View Post

Hope this helps.

Yes thanks it does help. All thing considered, I will wait till next week to investigate this methodology after the normalization of time change. It's hard enough at the best of times but introducing another uncertainty, makes it more difficult.
Thanks again.

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LogicalTrader
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7:13: Missed short from Asian low at 6:30. Kept watching as everything told me to short around 98.16. Will wait for pit session now.
8:00: Short 98.19 from Asian low and retest of developing OR.
8:02: Stop to par after 10 tick move in favor
8:03: Support at Euro low. Should see WOR high. Thats my exit 97.76
8:19: Goofed up again. Let it come all the way back. That went 37 ticks in favor. 6 short of where I wanted to get out. Wasnt quick enough. Got to stop thinking and trade the charts.
8:22: Short again 98.16. This could test OR high so will reshort if stopped. Order flow is right here so going now.
8:25: Should have had some patience. Stopped and reshort 98.21. But the brakes that the algos put on between 97.86 and 97.82 would rival those of a Nissan GTR. I was just taken aback not anticipating that. Should have flattened as soon as I saw that. Now hoping this is a failed A up. Stop to par.
8:37: More goof ups. Failed to execute so far. 2 losses now when there were clearly 2 trades that were both winners. Trying 1 more short from 98.31. Will go into hibernation if stopped.
8:41: Major attempt to push down here, so far big fight to keep it above 98.20. Need to see it break. Stop to par.
8:57: Now they go. It couldn't get more disappointing. Got to rethink my execution. 1 mismanaged trade changes things around so much, hard to believe what just happened. Hibernation time. I am just glad I am not trading the live trader prep account. Got a long way to go.

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 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
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iNeo View Post
7:13: Missed short from Asian low at 6:30. Kept watching as everything told me to short around 98.16. Will wait for pit session now.
8:00: Short 98.19 from Asian low and retest of developing OR.
8:02: Stop to par after 10 tick move in favor
8:03: Support at Euro low. Should see WOR high. Thats my exit 97.76
8:19: Goofed up again. Let it come all the way back. That went 37 ticks in favor. 6 short of where I wanted to get out. Wasnt quick enough. Got to stop thinking and trade the charts.
8:22: Short again 98.16. This could test OR high so will reshort if stopped. Order flow is right here so going now.
8:25: Should have had some patience. Stopped and reshort 98.21. But the brakes that the algos put on between 97.86 and 97.82 would rival those of a Nissan GTR. I was just taken aback not anticipating that. Should have flattened as soon as I saw that. Now hoping this is a failed A up. Stop to par.
8:37: More goof ups. Failed to execute so far. 2 losses now when there were clearly 2 trades that were both winners. Trying 1 more short from 98.31. Will go into hibernation if stopped.
8:41: Major attempt to push down here, so far big fight to keep it above 98.20. Need to see it break. Stop to par.
8:57: Now they go. It couldn't get more disappointing. Got to rethink my execution. 1 mismanaged trade changes things around so much, hard to believe what just happened. Hibernation time. I am just glad I am not trading the live trader prep account. Got a long way to go.



Think about ONE GOOD TRADE at time. Book 30 ticks when price is within previous day balance area. Look at your

trades between 8.19 to 8.57. Seems like a very very busy mind. Try to take trades when mind and prices are not jumping.

What's the RUSH?

Just something to think about.

8.41 " Major attempt". When major attempt is underway we do not need to guess- the whole WORLD can see it.

Looks to me you are trading because you may be afraid off missing a move.

Today was a difficult day. How do we know next time another trading day will be similar to today's day?

When price is trading in a balance area, price action will be very similar.

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LogicalTrader
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mfbreakout View Post
Think about ONE GOOD TRADE at time. Book 30 ticks when price is within previous day balance area. Look at your

trades between 8.19 to 8.57. Seems like a very very busy mind. Try to take trades when mind and prices are not jumping.

What's the RUSH?

Just something to think about.

8.41 " Major attempt". When major attempt is underway we do not need to guess- the whole WORLD can see it.

Looks to me you are trading because you may be afraid off missing a move.

Today was a difficult day. How do we know next time another trading day will be similar to today's day?

When price is trading in a balance area, price action will be very similar.

Thanks mfb. I keep forgetting and get ahead of myself. Why do I get fixated on levels. Why I let 37 ticks get away from hand hoping for 6 more ticks, I cannot explain. You are right. There is no rush. Tomorrow is another day. Then the day after and so on. Must focus on one good trade at a time.

Thanks for the support.

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LogicalTrader
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6:00: Price rotating within a 35 tick range since Asian start. Currently at support area at 97.50. Orderflow suggesting long but will wait a bit. See if the 97.40 low gets taken out and what happens then. Been in a downward move since the close yesterday. Could continue.
6:18: That was a good break of 97.40 - decent selling. Could see some folks getting out of their shorts here. MIPOD here at 97.20 so expect rez. No trades yet.
6:52: Yesterday still affecting my judgement today. Scared of pulling the trigger. Was eyeing the long from this double bottom at 97.10, couldnt pull the trigger. Dont know if it will work but previously I would have been long 10 ticks ago.
8:02: Short 97.39. Nissan GTR brakes applied at 97.40. Saw it today on time.
8:11: There wasnt a good place for a stop so I stuck with my standard 12 tick stop. Has held so far. Trade is still good.
8:15: OR does not form until 9:45 today being inventories day. So expect slow movements until then but who knows. Just trading what the charts tell me. 1 good trade is all I am looking for.
8:17: Stop to par. Having difficulty going down.
8:43: Didnt know it was going to be this slow but hanging on. Large sell order at 97.40 so easing off on the stop a little.
9:03: Couple of big buy orders absorbed so far at 97.40. Order flow still in support of the short but so far today seems like yesterday. Have to be patient and stick to the charts.
9:06: Stop to par. Having difficulty again going down. If this is anything like yesterday, I want no part of it.
9:09: Out with 20 ticks. This could blow down but I am done.
9:20: The stacks are so thick. Liquidity providers having a good time today.
9:25: Whats the element of surprise here? Everyone sees the resistance here. So why is price still hanging around right at resistance?
9:31: This isnt allowed under TST rules but for practice long 97.09. Its a Nissan GTR trade.
9:34: Exited a bit early for 20 ticks. Should have waited till 97.40. Good learning experience.
9:38: Long 96.95. Stop to par.
9:50: It either clears 97.10 or gets my par stop. Order flow is still long.
9:52: Out with 31 ticks. Taking premature exits today after recent screw ups. 20-30 ticks is good enough for me.
9:58: Seems like a failed A down, people should be long and most likely we should see 97.50 which would be a great area to short because of the confluence of WOR low and OR high and Asian low.
10:17: Entering passive mode now. Got 61 ticks today and want to keep them (had 1 loss trying long at 96.90 area). Maybe done for the day. This is the psychology I am working towards. Should be in passive mode right from the start. Let the trades jump out at you rather than go looking for them. Such a vast difference in today's trading vs yesterday. Both choppy, range bound days but different state of mind.

Hindsight Analysis:
In hindsight, the order flow was much better today than yesterday. Probably why I did better. I didnt take at least 2 entries that really jumped out at me. The 3rd touch of 97.40 (97.48) was a no brainer short. I watched and let it go but then did something stupid and gave 12 cents back. I was done at 9:52.

Analyzing my trading so far, it looks like range bound days are better for me. I have become better at reading order flow. On breakout days, when price breaks out of the OR, I really do not have any setups. Once it is outside the OR and away from the 3 ranges, I got nothing to lean on. So I have to focus on the early on trades while I have levels to lean on otherwise, just leave it alone. Also have to recognize days like yesterday early enough. I am going to call a day like yesterday and ACD fail where its not an A or a failed A or a C or a failed C - nothing at all. Also noted that yesterday was a Tuesday - day before crude oil inventories and FOMC - a dual event that occurs once every 6-7 weeks or 8 times a year. Will try to see if that is a pattern going back in time and observing in the future.

If tomorrow and Friday go like today, I have enough confidence to start trading the live trader prep account starting Monday. I will leave a few days in this combine for practice if I need to switch to it once I start the LTP.

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 jmsUK 
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Remember EIA at 09:30CT

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LogicalTrader
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Remember EIA at 09:30CT

Yes, thanks. Aware of that. OR forms late today.

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LogicalTrader
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6:00: Last day of the month has some different characteristics. I have some notes but not concrete enough to do anything differently. So will just trade the plan as usual. Been in a mini uptrend since the Euro start. Price breaking through previous high and could move higher. Next rez are is WOR low. Wait and watch.
6:43: Long 96.76. Pullback to Asian high, prior Euro high. Didnt wait for enough confirmation but guess thats OK. Once trading LTP, cannot take trades before 7 so maybe should have waited.
6:45: Stopped out. Should have waited for more confirmation. Always buy on the way up, not when it is still going down.
8:08: 2 losses trying long. Got fixated on a bias again. Got to hold it together now and not let it fall apart.
8:18: Countdown to A begins.
8:24: Notes from 8/30 said that CL was just as it is now - sluggish but I wasnt trading this method then. The move was from 97 short and its almost 100 cents later. There was order flow long at 69.10 but I wasnt at my desk and there was no level to lean on so probably would have skipped it anyway. Likelihood of chop is greater. So I will have to wait for my turn. Nothing else to do but wait for an opportunity to jump out at me. Not going to find them, but let them come to me. There is no bias.
8:36: A up confirmed. Long bias.
8:40: Long 86.89 based on order flow. No levels here so less confident trade but order flow was good for longs.
8:43: 0 for 3. Strike out.


Quoting 
On breakout days, when price breaks out of the OR, I really do not have any setups.

Should have paid attention

11:16: Long 96.11 on retest of OR low. Its either a failed A down or a C down in which case, I am done for the day.
11:20: Stop to par.
11:36: It could still go but I got out at 96.31 at first hint of buying effort coming in. The buying effort could very well overcome the resistance above and go to the moon but with the day I have had, my primary goal is to recover as much as possible instead of day dreaming about 80 cent moves.
11:47: That had about 10 more cents in it that I left on the table, I would definitely be out now around 96.40.
12:03: One day I will be trading 2 cars and holding one when this happens. There were many signs that they would break thru 96.50. I just couldnt bank on it trading 1 car so did what I had to and happy with it.
12:05: No signs of letting up. We could see a new high of the day,
12:11: Eyeing pullback to 96.50 for a possible long. Lets see.
1:12: Short 96.76 anticipating a pullback to 96.50 and possibly lower unless buyers are too strong and rip through 96.90
1:16: Stop to par. Look to exit around 96.50 or last trade of the day. Order flow is still short
1:35: That sucked. The stop to par move killed the trade. Would have been some decent ticks otherwise.

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LogicalTrader
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6:30: Order flow supports this area for a long from 96.25 on retest of Asian lows but as will wait until 7 AM before placing orders.
7:09: That saved me a few ticks. You never know when orders are being absorbed for a fade and when they will be enough to break through. The only thing that can be observed that goes against a long at 96.25 is the amount of time it just hung around at that level. When the whole world sees it, the edge reduces significantly.
7:18: Long 95.68
7:26: Scratched. Too much time hovering around over here. I will wait until pit open.
8:04: Long 95.54
8:07: Stop to par
8:10: Scratch again. And its OK. If they wanted to take it up, it would be above 95.80 already
8:15: Long again 95.54
8:19: Stopped. There is no rush. Got to take it easy.
8:34: Long 95.35
8:40: took a stop again. In hindsight, failed to realize that its a confirmed A down in a downtrend. Should have thought of that.
9:27: This might be it for today. Move so far is about the ATR and most big money has already exchanged hands and its a Friday. Happy people already drinking. Unhappy ones still hoping for a miracle.
9:35: Theres me, hoping for a few ticks. Short 95.25. There is no good place to short so went on order flow and previous level where buyers were collected.
9:40: Scratched.
9:43: Its still a short area. May enter again
9:45: Missed it.
10:02: Long 94.87. Stop already to par. Saw it early but not betting on anything.
10:05: Big fight at 95. I got nothing to lose and wont short at 95 so hanging on. If 95 does not hold, 95.20 is the first area to get out, then 95.40.
10:09: Order flow little better now. I may not have enough room.
10:11: Another scratch.
10:25: One more try long 94.75. Lets see if this clears 94.80 first.
10:28: Wonder when the shorts will start covering. Its a scavenger trade. All depends upon short covering now.
10:31: Now waiting for 94.95 and then 95.05 or par stop.
10:36: 5 scratches. This one I might regret.
10:39: Got to get rid of the FEAR FACTOR. Since yesterday, this is the 3rd trade missed. Even if I get stopped out 5 times instead of at par, its still a winning situation. So what am I afraid of?
10:42: They break 94.95 and shorts start covering and might be enough to get above 95 and thats the end of the day. Probably was the last opportunity for some ticks. Not happening now.
10:58: Thats really bad trading. Just awful. 2 missed trades - all due to fear.
11:25: I am probably pushing it now but long 94.84. Will let this one play out. Anticipating a break of 95 again possibly higher.
11:37: Got out at 95.10, dont want to push it. Who know where it will go. Got to stick to the short term towards the end of the session instead of day dreaming.
11:43: There were 3 levels to exit. 95.10 was the first and the 2 noted before 95.20 and 95.40. We could very well see the OR low. If trading 2, I would have been out at 95.20. Order flow strongly suggested it. 95.40 may actually be a good short if I have any emotional capital left. Feel drained right now.
1:20: Long 94.91. See the brakes they put on. Late entry but will look for a quick exit since the session is almost done.
1:22: Didnt see that.

OK, I am beginning to treat this as SIM now. Time to start trading the real deal. If I continue trading the current combine just for practice any longer, it might hurt me since I am no longer replicating what I would do trading live.

Got to rest up and start fresh Monday with the LTP account.

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 jmsUK 
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Thanks for sharing.
Have a nice weekend ready for next week.
Good luck with that.

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LogicalTrader
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jmsUK View Post
Thanks for sharing.
Have a nice weekend ready for next week.
Good luck with that.

Thanks. I may continue with my dead combine for a few more days instead of starting the LTP account next week. Need some more confidence.

Have a good weekend.

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 jmsUK 
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iNeo View Post
Thanks. I may continue with my dead combine for a few more days instead of starting the LTP account next week. Need some more confidence.

Have a good weekend.

Bear in mind: confidence is the feeling you get AFTER doing it right and when it works. Just need to be sure you are trading your edge. I think it is okay to refine ones edge slightly when one notices that the market is behaving slightly differently. IMO.

I will be lucky if I can scrape a rollover with my Combine but I have learnt a LOT and will take a break for a week and come back with renewed determination. It's only been in the last few days that I have faced up to what is required of me and I am optimistic and confident I can keep learning and be good enough soon..
Best

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LogicalTrader
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Starting with the TST Live Trader Prep account today. Cannot place a trade until past 7 AM so will observe until then. There is no rush. Let them come to you.

6:15: Previous low of 94.36 just got taken out convincingly. Good short was around 94.60 - 94.55 where order flow suggested short side activity.
6:25: 5 min chart has the makings of a short term long setup but if this is anything like Friday, longs will not have any chance. Otherwise, good area for a quick long from 94.16 area
6:27: WOR is 94.45 - 94.74. Based on fib extensions, next areas down are 93.70ish and then 93.30ish. Lets see if it pulls back to WORL. This is different than Friday because now everyone sees the break down and the element of surprise is gone.
6:50: Looks poised for pullback further, maybe to WORL
7:07: No pullback to WORL yet. Maybe now? I am still sitting on the sidelines until I see something convincing. Most likely will wait until pit open.
7:20: Dont want to be short here. Wish I was long from 94.16 - had 2 opportunities.
7:57: Theres WORL
8:03: Shorted 94.36, immediate stop out. Then missed short from a little higher up around 94.50. Now have to sit on hands.
8:15: OR - 94.12 - 94.56
8:24: Short 94.53 on failed A up premise. In between WOR is neutral so will have to see below WORL for some confidence.
8:25: Flattened. Will wait for better location. The whole day is ahead.
8:28: None of the other stats matter in the LTP so when in doubt, get out. The only stat that matters is staying above target and avoiding news events.
8:39: Technically a failed A up now. Orderflow still good for shorts but could change in a second. Once below WOR, will see what else presents itself.
8:55: T4 sucks. All of a sudden it changed from stop to limit orders and my AOCO is reset. Cost me 4 cents
9:00: Massive push up. Not in terms of price but size. Order flow is very deliberate and does not look like normal. I will stay away.
9:03: Now price follows. Who woulda thunk that? Everyone came in short, short, short and it goes 100 cents up
9:12: Figured out why t4 did that. When you switch contract months, it resets. I took a peek at what the Jan contract was doing and thats when it reset. T4 doesn't suck, my knowledge of its features sucks.
9:22: Long 94.77 from pullback to WORH. Its an A up now and orderflow supports the long. Prepared to wait a while before seeing profits based on whats going on since pit open. Certainly external factors at play here.
9:39: Still long. Orderflow still supportive but today's orderflow way different than normal. Will wait it out and see what happens.
9:50: Stop to par. And stopped out at entry. I have no idea what is going on. Couldnt have picked a worse day to start the LTP.
10:04: Entering passive mode. Its really different today and I dont have my edge as much as I normally have. This is a very strong buy right here at ORH but the orderflow is just weird, cannot trade this until things change.
12:45: Short 94.90 on retest of 95. Orderflow supports short.
1:04: Should have stayed out. Got my stop to the tick exactly.
1:16: Its as if the algos know exactly how rookies trade. The only thing wrong with that trade was my tiny stop.

Hindsight analysis:
Why I would write in my journal about the long setup at 94.16 and not take it, even when price came back to the area twice after 7 AM AND orderflow confirmed on both occasions, is beyond me.

Then, the first trade. Something inside me was screaming out saying, dont get in right at pit open, wait a few seconds but I just left my sell stop order at 94.36 only to be stopped out before I could say WTFJH.

Then the failure to enter short a few seconds later from 94.50 area

Then the short towards the end of the day from 94.90 that got taken out to the tick and the failure to re-enter the trade.

And at least 2 missed textbook entries in between all this.

Execution still eludes me is all I can say.

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yafed68
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Hi Ineo,
I also do appreciate your journal. Its really a great job for self control during trading. But I have a question. You often use term as order flow but in your preferences I can see that you use Trade station. So you try to analyze tape or DOM?

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LogicalTrader
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Hi Ineo,
I also do appreciate your journal. Its really a great job for self control during trading. But I have a question. You often use term as order flow but in your preferences I can see that you use Trade station. So you try to analyze tape or DOM?

I dont use tape or DOM in the traditional sense but I try to get a sense of when the orders are getting absorbed more and getting "collected" more than they are pushing price. In other words, I am looking at one form of the cumulative delta or volume delta (trades at bid - trades at ask). For instance, as the market is moving up, generally the buy market orders are lifting offers at a consistent pace absorbing one level after the other. When you see the pace continue but as more and more buy orders lift offers, the level remains or price does not move up anymore. The cumulative delta shows buy orders heavily outweigh sell orders but the price remains almost constant. This is what I mean by "collected". You wont see a huge offer on the stack during times like these. Some people refer to this as an "iceberg" or "hidden" order. In my opinion, there is no one iceberg or hidden order but a series of them in a short range of a few ticks. This just suggests that the up move is now meeting resistance but does not necessarily mean it will reverse.



I use this as confirmation for my entries where I am looking to get into a position at my levels and once in a position, I watch out for unfavorable order flow after entry to scratch the trade or at known levels to exit the trade. Its just my way of looking at orderflow for thinner markets like CL and NQ.

I am still a long way from implementing this correctly so please try all this out for yourself before taking my word for it

Hope it helps

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LogicalTrader
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6:08: 94.90 has held which is a big deal for keeping price below 95. The probability of 94 being at least tested is very high and downward targets of 93.70 and 93.30 might come into play today. Not going to let any of this put a bias in my head. No red reports today to watch out for. Execution is the primary focus. Reasonable targets of 25-40 ticks.
6:56: Getting short orderflow at WORL. But not going to rush into anything today. I really need only 1 good trade a day. Thats it.
7:16: They might keep pushing and retest 95 - take out overnight inventory in the process, which isnt much - 400-500 more contracts - and then take it down. Who knows. All I can see is resistance here at 94.45-50. Very low volume so far.
7:56: Back. That was a good read. Would have been a good short.
8:03: Stopped out twice going long. Will wait a bit now, regroup and try to not push it.
8:10: Now it goes up. Small stops are killing me here. Will have to think about it.
8:15: OR - 93.93 - 94.45.
8:57: Long 93.90. Feeling trigger shy already. 93.25 was a great short. Everything lined up. Anyway, will watch this one carefully.
9:03: Done for the day.

Hindsight analysis:
There is no self pity or beating yourself up in this game. You realize what you are doing wrong and you go out there and correct it. There is no "TRY", you DO or you DO NOT.

Saw it right again today but impulse trades and small stops killed it. Stops are not the issue if the trade is correct. Picking bottoms in an obvious downtrend is just not done. I realize that the longs today were more impulsive than anything else since I didnt have the guts to actually short the market when I should have. And then, I see it going down and now I want to prove the market wrong by going long. Thought I was over this a long time ago, but guess not.

Back tomorrow and the day after and the week after.... as long as it takes to get it right. Whats the worst that can happen, if I fail the LTP, its actually a good thing, simply means I wasnt ready for live trading. I want to be trading consistently, without fear before I go live. When I reach that point, the funding will come automatically. With 8 trading days to go, there is still a lot of time to make it right and on the other hand, I do not mind going back to the combine and getting my act together before going live. All the pieces will fall into place - I have the faith.

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LogicalTrader
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I will be adding a hypothesis section going forward entirely based on ACD. I have been programming the entire ACD method since yesterday - all of it - including the macro number line. This is in an attempt to do it right. So far, I dont have everything programmed so I will only include those factors that I can see now.

Today's ACD:
Yesterday's Daily Pivot range: 94.59 - 94.50. Yesterday settled below the range at 93.72 setting a bearish sentiment coming into today.

Daily Pivot range: 93.98 - 93.80. Currently market has gone through todays range setting a bullish tone.

3 day rolling pivot range is 94.86 - 94.10. Since 10/30, market has remained below the 3 day rolling pivot range and every time it pulled back to the range low, it was rejected and pushed down. Similar behavior occurring right now. Pullback to 94.10 and it has formed a double top so rolling pivot range bias remains down with price wedged between the daily pivot range and the 3 day rolling pivot range

Monthly open range: 96.65 - 94.36. We are below the MOR and the MORL remains resistance. MOR bias for today is also down.

So far thats all I have. Overall the bias is bearish with the exception of today being a possible plus day since it opened below the daily pivot and has broken through it. The current price area between 94.10 - 94.45 should be heavy resistance. Market will have to go through this area and above 94.74 and then 94.86 and close above this mark to see any serious buying interest. On the other hand, the only resistance area is the daily pivot so if we see 93.80 and below, everything is back in full bear mode.

In the near future, all this text will be replaced by 1 image of my chart that shows all of the above. Most likely Monday onward that will be the case.

Will wait until at least 7 AM before putting on the first trade.

7:07: Long 94.03 based on the premise of today being a plus day. Resistance at 94.36 and 94.45 so will look for exit around these. 15 tick stop.
7:20: Next time will do a better job of entry. Could have gotten a much better fill. Anyway, it is what it is. Leaving target at 94.43. Back around pit open.
7:54: That got stopped out. The area and premise is still good for a long but I will wait until slightly past pit open. The whole day is still ahead.
8:01: Another one stopped out - to the exact tick. Now I am gun shy and the trade is actually taking place without me. Used bigger stops today but no good. Will have to refine my entry. This is not going to work otherwise.
8:13: Immediately foreseeable trading range could be 93.68 to 94.36. Feels like a rotational day. I have 1 more bullet left so will fire when everything lines up.
8:15: OR established: 94.08 - 93.68. Possible scenarios: 1) Failed A up followed by A down, this has a good probability since rolling pivot is just above the ORH; 2) A up through the pivot, which would be true above 94.84, remote possibility; 3) A down after bounce from daily pivot high (right here at 93.98). All things considered. The only long that could be taken is out of the question now. So will focus on shorts from a failed A up or an A down.
8:35: Cracked the ORH but no confirmation yet.
8:39: Short 94.01 on premise 1) above. Orderflow confirms now.
8:47: Orderflow still confirms but stop may not be sufficient. The real resistance is 94.10 and stop is 94.16.
8:52: Done for the day. It might just be a plus day today. Will ponder how I could have gotten and stayed long from below. Very disappointing day again. Called it right, just couldnt execute.
8:59: What a difference timing makes. The long would have been good for 40 ticks and now we could see the WORL. They are definitely pushing this.
9:01: WORL and still pushing.
9:34: Still have to keep going and practice. Long 94.32 in the other combine account. Stop to par. Target is WORH 94.74. LTP is close to max daily loss so wont trade it anymore today.
9:43: Raised target to 94.84. Could raise higher depending upon order flow. Also, I forgot that the OR today does not form until 9:35. DUH! That short was totally invalid.
9:45: Got out at 94.72. If this is a plus day, we have a lot more higher to go but cannot push with 1 contract so happy with 40 ticks. Wish things were a little bit different and this trade was in the LTP account. If .74 clears, .86 is next and then who knows.
10:10: Long 94.50 from WORL.
10:11: Stop to par. Target 94.86
10:21: They are still pushing up with heavy volume, really heavy. This either goes up quick or I am out.
10:24: Out at 94.86 for 36 ticks.
10:27: Wow, first hand experience of what a plus day could be like. We are now above the rolling pivot range and that means a bunch of stops are taken out and the downtrend from 10/30 is technically over for ACD traders.


Quoting 
Market will have to go through this area and above 94.74 and then 94.86 and close above this mark to see any serious buying interest.

Who knew?

10:41: Calling it quits for the day. Was watching this pullback to 94.86 and it was a valid long but dont want to push it today. 3 losses, 2 wins and nicely green. Good day for a confidence boost after the disastrous start.

Hindsight Analysis:
First off, if Mark Fisher reads my journal entry today, he will probably get a good laugh out of it. Most of the pre-market analysis was incorrect. The numbers I mean. Some were correct, some were off - not by much but still. The funny part is my commentary based on what I thought the pivot numbers were when they really were not there.

Anyone reading this, beware of my numbers until I get it right.

My LTP account is on life support now. One more day like today and its gone. It doesn't worry me though. I will trade it tomorrow and if it lives, I will trade it for the remaining 6 days too. Somehow, I dont feel as anxious or fearful as yesterday. Mostly because of the pre-market preparation I put in even if it was partly wrong. Now that I know what the correct levels were, I am even more amazed. Need to get my program written so I dont get it wrong like today. 93.68 was actually the daily pivot high - go figure. Didnt know it at the time. What a fantastic day it would have been if I knew that before hand. Instead of trying to go long at 93.98, I would have waited because that where the asian low was too. It all makes sense now.

Very excited about this. Cant wait until tomorrow

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  #92 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
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I will post ACD market prep Monday onward when all of my programming is complete.

No trading in the LTP account until then. But will trade my other combine account.

Based on Daily and rolling pivot ranges, the bias is bullish. The bounce off of 94.50 overnight set this tone. Resistance upward is 95.51-95.56. I expect and will trade based on an upward rotational day. This is still based on limited analysis of the ACD system. Cant wait until its all programmed.

7:58: 94.09 is the rolling pivot low (I think). Forceful move below that and we are back in full bear territory. Otherwise its still a rotational upward day.
8:02: Long 94.20
8:03: Quick stop out for 15 ticks and long again at 94.11
8:07: Stop to par.
8:09: Out for 27 ticks. This could go more but I have to take quick profits while still trading 1.
8:15: Todays OR: 95.02 - 95.01. 101 ticks
8:27: Orderflow is short now here at WORL. Either there is a huge volume push up or we may see a move down.
8:42: So far pushing up well on decent volume. Have to get past 94.56 and then 94.71 for full bull mode, if they cannot get past 94.56, we are rotating lower.
9:00: Pivot broken on heavy volume. Was that it? Back to the macro downtrend?
9:16: Short 94.06. Premise is pullback to pivot low. Orderflow confirms. 12 tick stop. Hoping my numbers are correct and hoping for an A down now.
9:20: Longs are still trapped. Should at least see a new low or I am analyzing this waaay too much. Stop to par anyway.
9:31: The longer it stays below 94.01 the better it is for the trade. I am hoping for 93.66 as my target. In hindsight, I should have gotten out at a new low around 93.86 but I am sort of stuck now so it will either be a par stop or 93.66 seems logical.
9:41: Definitely an A down now. Lets see how far it will go. So tempted to take 20 ticks
9:46: Shoulda coulda woulda. This is still a short trade right here from 94.10. Now what do I do. Got stopped out at entry, enter again at previous spot?
9:59: That was poorly managed. Clearly saw the short opportunity, had 26 ticks in hand, let that come back to stop at par and now it goes again. Learning experience, thats what it is.
10:03: Thats a very heavy push attempt down at 93.90 area. Some algo is absorbing a whole bunch of orders.
10:09: I am just happy to see I am getting it right. If we get to 93.66 is almost as good as a win because it proves this stuff works - got to just read it right and react on time.
10:23: Got the same level, same setup again. Short again at 94.06. 12 tick stop. Last trade of the day whatever the outcome.
10:29: Stop to par. Either it goes now or too much has been sold already.
10:33: Stopped at par and one more attempt from 94.21 short. Either this is a stop run before the move I am looking for or I am done for the day.
10:53: Raised stop to 15 ticks. Errand to run. Leaving target at 93.66. The big picture is that big money has already exchanged hands today. Will be a breakeven day worst case.
12:40: Some day I will overcome my urge to prove the market wrong.
12:58: Order flow based scalp. Long 94.30. Looking for 94.56
1:01: Stop to par.
1:10: Had 16 ticks, got stuck on a level again.
1:15: Short 94.23, orderflow scalp again.
1:21: Another scratch. Done for the day. Will have to adjust targets for such scalps to be also based on order flow.

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LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
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7:16: Late start today. I thought 94.20 would be good support but price traded below it by 30 ticks and now its back so not sure anymore. Getting good short confirmation at WORL but red reports at 7:30 so will stay out. Actually had stop order at 94.41 and then realized about the reports.
8:05: Long 94.17 from developing OR low. Target WORL. 12 tick stop. Needs to clear this area first - go above .25-.27
8:07: Stop to par.
8:10: Out at 94.47 for 30 ticks. This has the makings of a very good long. Too much short inventory still could get taken out. Could easily see a new high but I am sticking to reasonable targets.
8:15: Todays OR: 94.55 - 94.09
8:27: Short 94.56 based on globex high rejection. Need a bit more orderflow in favor
8:29: Scratched. No need to rush into anything. I will go when everything lines up.
8:33: Would have scratched now if not 4 minutes ago. We could see higher now based on orderflow. Will monitor WORH now.
8:49: Twiddling thumbs, watching algos working on minor orderflow imbalances and sucking in 1-2 lot traders. No real edge in the short term. As of electronic session start, cumulative inventory became 0 and is now going down. There was no major imbalance for me to capitalize on so if this goes down, so be it. I can only trade what I can understand. Got my setup from 94.20 area and executed. Now twiddling thumbs and getting real education - screen time.
9:00: Saw this develop and almost went long at 94.43. I can see a new high already. Lets see how it looks at 94.74 WORH.
9:13: Long 94.42
9:18: Stop to par. May not work out unless they really want to see higher - meaning it will need more than expected buying
9:20: No go for this one. Most of these are really just scalps or scratches so its fine. I am (as of now) not interested in anything less than 20 ticks. Maybe this will change if I can see this pattern well enough.
9:32: Long 94.27 ahead of the daily/rolling pivot
9:36: Wasnt a good read. Gave up 12 ticks.
9:39: That was a good volume move through the pivot. Shift of bias now.
9:51: Short 94.16. Someone just threw about 400-500 buy orders into the market I think. Premise for the trade is pullback to pivot in anticipation of an A down through the pivot.
10:00: Battle of the bots going on right here. Caught in between. It is still advantageous to be short from the 94.20 level.
10:03: I should re-read the book . Ended up being a failed A up followed by a failed A down - just didnt get it right.
10:10: Long 94.38. Last trade of the day if stopped. There is more room for upward move so will hold until WORH. It has to get past WORL and then .55 first so will protect as soon as I can.
10:16: Scratched.
10:24: Short 94.46 based on WORL resistance and orderflow supports. Last trade if stopped. Looking for 94.20 area at least.
10:35: Stop to par. 2nd huge order into the market, the previous one was buy, this one a sell both greater than 300 contracts. Havent seen something like this so far.
10:38: Another scratch.
10:48: Long 94.46. Target 94.74. Stop already to par. Been sitting on this for over 10 minutes now. It was fun to watch the details.
11:06: 4 scratches today. Thats at least 50+ ticks left on the table.
11:07: Done for the day. Another breakeven day. Good learning experience. Going forward, orderflow trades will have a target equal to the stop, even it it is 10 ticks
1:30: Took 3 longs thinking its a C up but it wasnt because there was no A. 2 stopped out at par and 1 for a full loss. Still breakeven on the day because of a couple of scalps in between. Obviously, I need to learn my material well enough so that it is in the subconscious and be more proactive. These 3 longs were totally reactive, without thinking or any anticipation. Cannot possibly do this live.
1:37: Note: The late day spike went exactly to 94.91 which is the monthly pivot low.

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  #94 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received

ACD programming is not yet complete. Its tough to get it right. So many details that one would just miss if not studied in detail.

7:12: Long 94.14, 10 tick stop. They have been just sitting here for a while now. Going by what orderflow tells me.
7:15: Stop to par. Volume is expected to be lower today with it being Veterans day.
7:22: Orderflow still strong in favor of long. Target is 94.45 at daily pivot low
7:26: Out at 94.41 for 27 ticks.
7:59: Back. It did go to my target and reversed. Might have shorted 94.45 if I was at my desk but good to see the theory was right.
8:14: Todays OR: 94.48 - 94.11. High probability failed A against the pivot could setup today. Will wait for that. And 94.20 is shaping up to be a good support point so far. Multiple pushes down, still no go.
8:30: Short 94.40 from daily pivot low resistance. Stop is above daily pivot range high.
8:45: Time stop coming up in 7 minutes or so. If it has to go down, it better do so in the next 6-7 minutes.
8:51: Stopped out at 94.51 and short again at 94.49 which I am starting to regret now. WORL is 94.61 and previous close at 94.60
8:52: Scratched it. It was too impulsive. Will wait for more evidence. There is no rush.
8:57: Short 94.59 from WORL and previous close. We are above daily pivot so will have to see 94.45 quick otherwise will bail again. That was a good decision to scratch earlier.
9:01: Failed to read it right again today. MFB got long at the same place I did and is still holding. Maybe I am reading too much into this. Its safe to say that the pivot broke with definitive force so we could still see a lot higher. Obviously the bias shifts now to the upside.
9:11: Totally blew it today. What's a good A through the pivot? Why is this still hindsight? It was a long at the break of 94.55. Why was I shorting? Back to the classroom. Done for the day.
9:33: Long 95.11 and 95.01 (Average 95.06). Dont approve of this trade since it is a revenge trade and not per plan. I dont trade 2 contracts. But had I not goofed up, this was a legitimate long with 1 contract only. 1 contract off 95.32. Final target is 95.47 ahead of monthly pivot high. Stop is at par. According to some projections, we could see 96 today or at least 95.80
9:40: All shorting is being absorbed. We are yet to see a "buying climax" when a bunch of stops get hit and shorts throw in the towel. Or they keep selling until the buying algos give up but thats unlikely. High probability of seeing another high of the day.
9:47: We did see a new high - by 1 tick. I was expecting more than that. Stop still good at 95.06
10:08: took the stop. Still think we should see a new high. At least test 95.50 area. I am done for the day now. Platform shut down. Back to the classroom. Back to programming.

Hindsight Analysis:

Took another long from WORL and held it for 32 ticks so ended up nicely green today but what a blunder in the morning hours. It took me a while to realize that my idea was wrong. And again, I set out to prove the market wrong even after I realized I was wrong!

The difference between an experienced trader like @mfbreakout and an inexperienced one like me is that I got out of my long from 94.14 and anticipated a failed A against the pivot and he held on to his long in anticipation of a good A up through the pivot.

Had I held on, my journal would be much shorter today.

Always look on the bright side. So the bright side is that it only gets better from here. Eventually I will see these setups beforehand like mfb.

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LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received

Late start again today. We are above most levels I care about so I am currently bullish.

8:00: Long 95.03
8:03: Took the stop. Will try once more unless we crack below 94.90
8:09: One more try from 94.91
8:12: Selling is relentless.
8:14: Bias shifts to short below 94.77. They cracked through the daily pivot again today and I got caught on the wrong side.
8:16: Todays OR: 95.15 - 94.67. Possibility of failed A down against WORL. Confusing analysis.
8:25: Short 94.68 from pullback to daily pivot low in anticipation of a good A down through the pivot. The caveat is the WORL at 94.61 so will protect as soon as I can.
8:30: Stop to par. Target globex low.
8:39: Time stop approaching in 6-7 minutes if not get stopped out at entry. So far WORL has held. Hoping to see below 94.50 before the time stop is up. Went about 22 ticks in favor.
8:42: Scratch trade.
8:51: Long 94.67 on the premise of a failed A down. Enough time has passed.
8:57: Stop to par. Cannot read orderflow that well today. Every move is requiring heavier than usual buying or selling.
9:00: They will have to move past 94.77 with more volume for this trade to work. So far that is not the case.
9:06: Took the stop. Another scratch. Cannot figure it out today. Immediate orderflow is slightly down. Maybe we see a minor flushout of buyers and I can get back in. Otherwise, it is what it is. A learning experience.
9:11: In hindsight, should have kept stop below WORL. Thought about it several times but wanted to be consistent with what I do. Note for the future: A failed A down takes a while to play out and got to give it room. Target was a new high of the day so will take some consolation if we see the move play out, even if it is without me.
9:17: Well Neo, you killed this trade. But good call so a pat on the back for you.
9:30: Long 95.13. Anticipating move to continue to previous daily high levels of 95.38 and 95.40. 15 tick stop.
9:33: Done for the day.
9:41: One last try. Long 94.92. Orderflow is extremely imbalanced in favor of longs. Several levels to lean on here so feel really good about this trade.
9:45: Rules are rules. No discipline, no victory. Scratched and will call it a day no matter how much I want to get back at the market.

Hindsight Analysis:

Instead of looking at what usually happens, I have been trying to find events that do not happen so often. The most common trade in the ACD system is a failed A and I am making this too complicated for my own good.

Today was a day to literally go out there and pick up the money lying around. Failed A down, followed by failed A up, followed by a C down (or good A down). An ACD trader cannot possible ask for more.

I have been rushing into trades, looking for them instead of letting them come to me (as a couple of good traders have already pointed out)

Also getting rid of the smaller time frame charts now. Will focus primarily on the 5 minute chart. I am just all over the place because of these charts looking at orderflow changes every few trades. Thats just not worth it.

All of my focus now has to be on patience - wait, wait and then wait some more and be the last one to get in as MFB says. Thats the plan going forward. The method works, the trader needs to step up now.

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 Balanar 
Germany
 
Experience: Advanced
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Trading: FDAX and CL
 
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Posts: 396 since Jan 2013
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Hey iNeo,

I do not want to interrupt your great journal but I want you to think about my thought/view.

Why did you go long? I know that there is an uptrend in the premarket session, but with pit opening volume was coming into the downside. That was my first hint to be careful with long trades.

All you need is patience, let the setup come to you.

What did I do? I sit on my hands till conditions are met.

I do not know if you work with volume, but check the 94.45 area.

Sellers got exhausted and that was the time for going long.

Check your 1m chart with volume.

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LogicalTrader
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Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received


Balanar View Post
Hey iNeo,

I do not want to interrupt your great journal but I want you to think about my thought/view.

Why did you go long? I know that there is an uptrend in the premarket session, but with pit opening volume was coming into the downside. That was my first hint to be careful with long trades.

All you need is patience, let the setup come to you.

What did I do? I sit on my hands till conditions are met.

I do not know if you work with volume, but check the 94.45 area.

Sellers got exhausted and that was the time for going long.

Check your 1m chart with volume.

Thanks. I jumped in too soon. I realize that now. My problem is accepting that I am wrong. While I am still OK with the first long, I really forced the second one.

I saw the volume at the 94.45 area but since I was short, I refused to accept the fact that the move is over. Its just my psychological demons that I have to defeat.

Thanks for your support.

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LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
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This is the TradeStation ELD that plots the 3 sessions on any chart.

There are 2 indicators in the ELD:

ACD Generator: Plot this on a 5 min chart, adjust the Sessions and OR begin/end times in the input parameters. Make sure you have at least 7 days worth of data in the chart to be able to see the WOR. This stores all calculated values using ADE.

ACD Plotter: Plot this on any chart. Make sure that the ADEInterval input value is the same as the interval for the generator chart. If the generator is on a 5 min chart, this should be 5. Also have at least 7 days worth of data in this chart to be able to see the WOR.

Please PM questions.

Attached Files
Register to download File Type: eld ACD_SESSIONS.ELD (71.9 KB, 22 views)
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LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received

7:12: Price banging against daily and rolling pivot low. If it stays below 93.37-93.40 area, it is bearish. The close yesterday was bearish with respect to the pivot range. Plan is to be patient and wait for trades to show up. 94.04-94.12 is the next area if it breaks through 9350 right here.
8:01: Short 93.53. Fading the move to developing OR high.
8:08: Scratched it.
8:10: Almost got long at 93.50 but will let the OR form and let the market tell me what to do.
8:15: Today's OR: 93.17 - 93.65.
8:35: 20 minutes past OR and we have a confirmed A up. Will look for pullbacks for long as long as we stay above 93.40. A break above 94.12 would be extremely bullish so will look for that as well.
8:57: Long 93.62 from pullback to ORH.
9:01: Going to give it some room so keeping stop at 93.50
9:05: Stop to par now. Too much has hit the offers and been absorbed. Either it continues or longs are trapped short term. So stop to par it is. If they continue buying, good for me. If the algos determine a juicy stop run below, no problem. I will get long after that.
9:14: Stopped at par.
9:45: Didnt get the conviction to get in long again and it did go to my target.
9:58: Done for the day. I anticipated this move - probably would not have held it so long but it was a possible scenario. They broke through the pivot again - this is the 3rd time in the last as many days I think. Eventually I will see this beforehand. Got to be patient until then.
10:07: Amazing seeing this happen everyday. If I shift my thinking slightly, this is a gold mine. Once they moved above 93.40, it was almost as if we would at least see 94.04 (same thing the past few days). There is no looking back now that we are past both 94.04 and 94.12. This is a good A up through the pivot (both of them). Its full bull mode.

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 Balanar 
Germany
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: NTB / Continuum
Trading: FDAX and CL
 
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Posts: 396 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 510 given, 1,627 received

@iNeo you make a great job here.

Maybe I am wrong with my thoughts, but as a reader I see the following "problem".

I think many traders see themselves in your words.

What I see is, that you pulled your stop to breakeven too fast.

I know this problem very well, but it is just the fear that you have.

The fear to get a loss.

Check your last trades where you got stopped out on breakeven and check if it was your fear that told you to pull the stop to breakeven.

Look @mfbreakout, have you ever seen him pulling the stop to breakeven after a couple of minutes? I think he is perfect in what he is doing. Maybe he is so kind and tells us something about his stop loss management.

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