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The Logical Trading Journal


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Updated February 1st 2014 by LogicalTrader
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The Logical Trading Journal

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  #81 (permalink)
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received


jmsUK View Post
Remember EIA at 09:30CT

Yes, thanks. Aware of that. OR forms late today.

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  #82 (permalink)
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received

10/31/2013

6:00: Last day of the month has some different characteristics. I have some notes but not concrete enough to do anything differently. So will just trade the plan as usual. Been in a mini uptrend since the Euro start. Price breaking through previous high and could move higher. Next rez are is WOR low. Wait and watch.
6:43: Long 96.76. Pullback to Asian high, prior Euro high. Didnt wait for enough confirmation but guess thats OK. Once trading LTP, cannot take trades before 7 so maybe should have waited.
6:45: Stopped out. Should have waited for more confirmation. Always buy on the way up, not when it is still going down.
8:08: 2 losses trying long. Got fixated on a bias again. Got to hold it together now and not let it fall apart.
8:18: Countdown to A begins.
8:24: Notes from 8/30 said that CL was just as it is now - sluggish but I wasnt trading this method then. The move was from 97 short and its almost 100 cents later. There was order flow long at 69.10 but I wasnt at my desk and there was no level to lean on so probably would have skipped it anyway. Likelihood of chop is greater. So I will have to wait for my turn. Nothing else to do but wait for an opportunity to jump out at me. Not going to find them, but let them come to me. There is no bias.
8:36: A up confirmed. Long bias.
8:40: Long 86.89 based on order flow. No levels here so less confident trade but order flow was good for longs.
8:43: 0 for 3. Strike out.


Quoting 
On breakout days, when price breaks out of the OR, I really do not have any setups.

Should have paid attention

11:16: Long 96.11 on retest of OR low. Its either a failed A down or a C down in which case, I am done for the day.
11:20: Stop to par.
11:36: It could still go but I got out at 96.31 at first hint of buying effort coming in. The buying effort could very well overcome the resistance above and go to the moon but with the day I have had, my primary goal is to recover as much as possible instead of day dreaming about 80 cent moves.
11:47: That had about 10 more cents in it that I left on the table, I would definitely be out now around 96.40.
12:03: One day I will be trading 2 cars and holding one when this happens. There were many signs that they would break thru 96.50. I just couldnt bank on it trading 1 car so did what I had to and happy with it.
12:05: No signs of letting up. We could see a new high of the day,
12:11: Eyeing pullback to 96.50 for a possible long. Lets see.
1:12: Short 96.76 anticipating a pullback to 96.50 and possibly lower unless buyers are too strong and rip through 96.90
1:16: Stop to par. Look to exit around 96.50 or last trade of the day. Order flow is still short
1:35: That sucked. The stop to par move killed the trade. Would have been some decent ticks otherwise.

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  #83 (permalink)
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received

11/1/2013 Journal


6:30: Order flow supports this area for a long from 96.25 on retest of Asian lows but as will wait until 7 AM before placing orders.
7:09: That saved me a few ticks. You never know when orders are being absorbed for a fade and when they will be enough to break through. The only thing that can be observed that goes against a long at 96.25 is the amount of time it just hung around at that level. When the whole world sees it, the edge reduces significantly.
7:18: Long 95.68
7:26: Scratched. Too much time hovering around over here. I will wait until pit open.
8:04: Long 95.54
8:07: Stop to par
8:10: Scratch again. And its OK. If they wanted to take it up, it would be above 95.80 already
8:15: Long again 95.54
8:19: Stopped. There is no rush. Got to take it easy.
8:34: Long 95.35
8:40: took a stop again. In hindsight, failed to realize that its a confirmed A down in a downtrend. Should have thought of that.
9:27: This might be it for today. Move so far is about the ATR and most big money has already exchanged hands and its a Friday. Happy people already drinking. Unhappy ones still hoping for a miracle.
9:35: Theres me, hoping for a few ticks. Short 95.25. There is no good place to short so went on order flow and previous level where buyers were collected.
9:40: Scratched.
9:43: Its still a short area. May enter again
9:45: Missed it.
10:02: Long 94.87. Stop already to par. Saw it early but not betting on anything.
10:05: Big fight at 95. I got nothing to lose and wont short at 95 so hanging on. If 95 does not hold, 95.20 is the first area to get out, then 95.40.
10:09: Order flow little better now. I may not have enough room.
10:11: Another scratch.
10:25: One more try long 94.75. Lets see if this clears 94.80 first.
10:28: Wonder when the shorts will start covering. Its a scavenger trade. All depends upon short covering now.
10:31: Now waiting for 94.95 and then 95.05 or par stop.
10:36: 5 scratches. This one I might regret.
10:39: Got to get rid of the FEAR FACTOR. Since yesterday, this is the 3rd trade missed. Even if I get stopped out 5 times instead of at par, its still a winning situation. So what am I afraid of?
10:42: They break 94.95 and shorts start covering and might be enough to get above 95 and thats the end of the day. Probably was the last opportunity for some ticks. Not happening now.
10:58: Thats really bad trading. Just awful. 2 missed trades - all due to fear.
11:25: I am probably pushing it now but long 94.84. Will let this one play out. Anticipating a break of 95 again possibly higher.
11:37: Got out at 95.10, dont want to push it. Who know where it will go. Got to stick to the short term towards the end of the session instead of day dreaming.
11:43: There were 3 levels to exit. 95.10 was the first and the 2 noted before 95.20 and 95.40. We could very well see the OR low. If trading 2, I would have been out at 95.20. Order flow strongly suggested it. 95.40 may actually be a good short if I have any emotional capital left. Feel drained right now.
1:20: Long 94.91. See the brakes they put on. Late entry but will look for a quick exit since the session is almost done.
1:22: Didnt see that.

OK, I am beginning to treat this as SIM now. Time to start trading the real deal. If I continue trading the current combine just for practice any longer, it might hurt me since I am no longer replicating what I would do trading live.

Got to rest up and start fresh Monday with the LTP account.

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  #84 (permalink)
Manchester, Greater Manchester, UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader7
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 88 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 363 given, 136 received

@iNeo

Thanks for sharing.
Have a nice weekend ready for next week.
Good luck with that.

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  #85 (permalink)
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received


jmsUK View Post
Thanks for sharing.
Have a nice weekend ready for next week.
Good luck with that.

Thanks. I may continue with my dead combine for a few more days instead of starting the LTP account next week. Need some more confidence.

Have a good weekend.

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  #86 (permalink)
Manchester, Greater Manchester, UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader7
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 88 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 363 given, 136 received


iNeo View Post
Thanks. I may continue with my dead combine for a few more days instead of starting the LTP account next week. Need some more confidence.

Have a good weekend.

Bear in mind: confidence is the feeling you get AFTER doing it right and when it works. Just need to be sure you are trading your edge. I think it is okay to refine ones edge slightly when one notices that the market is behaving slightly differently. IMO.

I will be lucky if I can scrape a rollover with my Combine but I have learnt a LOT and will take a break for a week and come back with renewed determination. It's only been in the last few days that I have faced up to what is required of me and I am optimistic and confident I can keep learning and be good enough soon..
Best

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  #87 (permalink)
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received

11/04/2013 Journal

Starting with the TST Live Trader Prep account today. Cannot place a trade until past 7 AM so will observe until then. There is no rush. Let them come to you.

6:15: Previous low of 94.36 just got taken out convincingly. Good short was around 94.60 - 94.55 where order flow suggested short side activity.
6:25: 5 min chart has the makings of a short term long setup but if this is anything like Friday, longs will not have any chance. Otherwise, good area for a quick long from 94.16 area
6:27: WOR is 94.45 - 94.74. Based on fib extensions, next areas down are 93.70ish and then 93.30ish. Lets see if it pulls back to WORL. This is different than Friday because now everyone sees the break down and the element of surprise is gone.
6:50: Looks poised for pullback further, maybe to WORL
7:07: No pullback to WORL yet. Maybe now? I am still sitting on the sidelines until I see something convincing. Most likely will wait until pit open.
7:20: Dont want to be short here. Wish I was long from 94.16 - had 2 opportunities.
7:57: Theres WORL
8:03: Shorted 94.36, immediate stop out. Then missed short from a little higher up around 94.50. Now have to sit on hands.
8:15: OR - 94.12 - 94.56
8:24: Short 94.53 on failed A up premise. In between WOR is neutral so will have to see below WORL for some confidence.
8:25: Flattened. Will wait for better location. The whole day is ahead.
8:28: None of the other stats matter in the LTP so when in doubt, get out. The only stat that matters is staying above target and avoiding news events.
8:39: Technically a failed A up now. Orderflow still good for shorts but could change in a second. Once below WOR, will see what else presents itself.
8:55: T4 sucks. All of a sudden it changed from stop to limit orders and my AOCO is reset. Cost me 4 cents
9:00: Massive push up. Not in terms of price but size. Order flow is very deliberate and does not look like normal. I will stay away.
9:03: Now price follows. Who woulda thunk that? Everyone came in short, short, short and it goes 100 cents up
9:12: Figured out why t4 did that. When you switch contract months, it resets. I took a peek at what the Jan contract was doing and thats when it reset. T4 doesn't suck, my knowledge of its features sucks.
9:22: Long 94.77 from pullback to WORH. Its an A up now and orderflow supports the long. Prepared to wait a while before seeing profits based on whats going on since pit open. Certainly external factors at play here.
9:39: Still long. Orderflow still supportive but today's orderflow way different than normal. Will wait it out and see what happens.
9:50: Stop to par. And stopped out at entry. I have no idea what is going on. Couldnt have picked a worse day to start the LTP.
10:04: Entering passive mode. Its really different today and I dont have my edge as much as I normally have. This is a very strong buy right here at ORH but the orderflow is just weird, cannot trade this until things change.
12:45: Short 94.90 on retest of 95. Orderflow supports short.
1:04: Should have stayed out. Got my stop to the tick exactly.
1:16: Its as if the algos know exactly how rookies trade. The only thing wrong with that trade was my tiny stop.

Hindsight analysis:
Why I would write in my journal about the long setup at 94.16 and not take it, even when price came back to the area twice after 7 AM AND orderflow confirmed on both occasions, is beyond me.

Then, the first trade. Something inside me was screaming out saying, dont get in right at pit open, wait a few seconds but I just left my sell stop order at 94.36 only to be stopped out before I could say WTFJH.

Then the failure to enter short a few seconds later from 94.50 area

Then the short towards the end of the day from 94.90 that got taken out to the tick and the failure to re-enter the trade.

And at least 2 missed textbook entries in between all this.

Execution still eludes me is all I can say.

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  #88 (permalink)
Donetsk, Ukraine
 
 
Posts: 29 since Jun 2013
Thanks: 0 given, 4 received

Hi Ineo,
I also do appreciate your journal. Its really a great job for self control during trading. But I have a question. You often use term as order flow but in your preferences I can see that you use Trade station. So you try to analyze tape or DOM?

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  #89 (permalink)
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received


yafed68 View Post
Hi Ineo,
I also do appreciate your journal. Its really a great job for self control during trading. But I have a question. You often use term as order flow but in your preferences I can see that you use Trade station. So you try to analyze tape or DOM?

I dont use tape or DOM in the traditional sense but I try to get a sense of when the orders are getting absorbed more and getting "collected" more than they are pushing price. In other words, I am looking at one form of the cumulative delta or volume delta (trades at bid - trades at ask). For instance, as the market is moving up, generally the buy market orders are lifting offers at a consistent pace absorbing one level after the other. When you see the pace continue but as more and more buy orders lift offers, the level remains or price does not move up anymore. The cumulative delta shows buy orders heavily outweigh sell orders but the price remains almost constant. This is what I mean by "collected". You wont see a huge offer on the stack during times like these. Some people refer to this as an "iceberg" or "hidden" order. In my opinion, there is no one iceberg or hidden order but a series of them in a short range of a few ticks. This just suggests that the up move is now meeting resistance but does not necessarily mean it will reverse.



I use this as confirmation for my entries where I am looking to get into a position at my levels and once in a position, I watch out for unfavorable order flow after entry to scratch the trade or at known levels to exit the trade. Its just my way of looking at orderflow for thinner markets like CL and NQ.

I am still a long way from implementing this correctly so please try all this out for yourself before taking my word for it

Hope it helps

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  #90 (permalink)
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received

11/05/2013 Journal


6:08: 94.90 has held which is a big deal for keeping price below 95. The probability of 94 being at least tested is very high and downward targets of 93.70 and 93.30 might come into play today. Not going to let any of this put a bias in my head. No red reports today to watch out for. Execution is the primary focus. Reasonable targets of 25-40 ticks.
6:56: Getting short orderflow at WORL. But not going to rush into anything today. I really need only 1 good trade a day. Thats it.
7:16: They might keep pushing and retest 95 - take out overnight inventory in the process, which isnt much - 400-500 more contracts - and then take it down. Who knows. All I can see is resistance here at 94.45-50. Very low volume so far.
7:56: Back. That was a good read. Would have been a good short.
8:03: Stopped out twice going long. Will wait a bit now, regroup and try to not push it.
8:10: Now it goes up. Small stops are killing me here. Will have to think about it.
8:15: OR - 93.93 - 94.45.
8:57: Long 93.90. Feeling trigger shy already. 93.25 was a great short. Everything lined up. Anyway, will watch this one carefully.
9:03: Done for the day.

Hindsight analysis:
There is no self pity or beating yourself up in this game. You realize what you are doing wrong and you go out there and correct it. There is no "TRY", you DO or you DO NOT.

Saw it right again today but impulse trades and small stops killed it. Stops are not the issue if the trade is correct. Picking bottoms in an obvious downtrend is just not done. I realize that the longs today were more impulsive than anything else since I didnt have the guts to actually short the market when I should have. And then, I see it going down and now I want to prove the market wrong by going long. Thought I was over this a long time ago, but guess not.

Back tomorrow and the day after and the week after.... as long as it takes to get it right. Whats the worst that can happen, if I fail the LTP, its actually a good thing, simply means I wasnt ready for live trading. I want to be trading consistently, without fear before I go live. When I reach that point, the funding will come automatically. With 8 trading days to go, there is still a lot of time to make it right and on the other hand, I do not mind going back to the combine and getting my act together before going live. All the pieces will fall into place - I have the faith.

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