Big milestone in my path to success as a trader today. After yesterday's loss, I played it conservative on this last day of the combine and got the necessary ticks in to get above the target mark and called it a day.
Got an email from TST that the combine is under review by the Scout team.
Plan of Action:
Even if the completed combine is considered for funding, it will take some time for everything to get setup before I can trade a live account. That would be a big gap and I cannot just sit idle until then. It is also possible that I may not meet all the objectives and the funding is declined for some reason. For both of the above, I think I am going to continue trading the way I have been on my 50K combine starting tomorrow. I still have 17 days left in it and enough trading days remaining before it expires. I am not yet ready to trade ES yet so I will just test my ES theory the remainder of the week and start trading it Monday most likely.
Big thanks to @mfbreakout and others in his thread for sharing their trading ideas. I am much more comfortable trading this way than I was before. Still have a lot to learn and improve upon but glad to see that I am headed in the right direction.
Back bright and fresh tomorrow morning.
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The following 2 users say Thank You to LogicalTrader for this post:
Widest and wildest overnight action for me so far. Not sure how to approach this so will take a wait and watch approach until pit session opens. I have no levels here other than the ones that have formed overnight and will form before 8:15. Dont have to trade, aware of that.
8:20: Long 96.35 from failed break of lows. Stop to par. Too much time and it hasnt shot up so protecting it.
8:23: Stopped out at par.
8:27: Maybe too aggressive but short 96.46 with order flow confirmation. Will look to bail at new lows.
8:29: Stop to par. Cannot figure out who is in control.
8:30: Same result. Standing aside for known levels before taking another one.
8:36: Could have scalped 10-12 ticks. But do I want to do that? Dont think so. Should break out of this range soon.
8:39: Per rules, OR does not form until 9:45 today being inventory day. So could be chop until then.
8:53: No clue what they are doing, every high was met with enough order flow to reverse. The last one being at 96.60-65. So scared of longs right now. At the same time 969.32 has held 3 times now. Looks like a box until proven otherwise.
8:57: Again pushing it down from 96.50. This could go. I am hesitant this morning. Cancelled short twice from 96.48-47
9:01: Short from 96.49
9:03: Stop to par. Heavy resistance again at 32. Break or not.
9:05: Broke. Target 96. Hold or not? 32 is the line in sand
9:09: Didnt trust my own algo. Was yelling at me to get out at 96.20. Poor trade management on my part. Had 30 ticks in hand.
9:18: Short one more time from 96.65.
9:19: Wow, fingers are jittery today. Fat fingered exit with 2 cents. Standing aside now for some time. Head is not in the game today.
9:23: Would have taken a stop on the last short but I still see red mostly.
9:45: I have got to get rid of the jitters and just trade what I see. Cannot keep missing trades like this. This could easily have been a done day by now.
10:35: Its an A up now and most of the trading has already been executed so I am looking at possibly not taking any more trades today. 220K contracts traded already.
Today's problem was that I let my confirmation tool dictate my trades and in the process didn't pay attention to the big picture. It was a failed A down and I should have been looking for longs when I was "seeing red". Even mentioned that 96.32 was the line in the sand so why was I banking on it breaking? It held and held 5-6 times and all those longs would have worked very well for my profit target of 25-35- ticks.
Good thing I stopped trading when I did. I started off late, unprepared and I should have not traded today at all. I definitely need more screentime with my current setup. It works, thats for sure. I need to work too - both the market and the trader need to be there.
Attaching pictures and updating the journal at the start of each trade is a distraction in the heat of the moment and I dont think I want to do that going forward. Instead, I will update the journal when the pressure eases off. I so understand what it means to "be in the zone now". With CL, at least, it needs undivided attention and unflinching belief to execute well and thats what I am going to focus tomorrow onward.
Last edited by LogicalTrader; October 23rd, 2013 at 06:38 PM.
Range bound Euro session so far. They have spiked the asian high and low and stayed within that range so far. Eventually it will break out of this range. Until then, trade the box. I have no bias, no predictions. Just trade the charts. One of the possible plays is a long from another spike lower to 96.86.
6:05: Algo's started up. Something happens at around 6 AM. The DOM behavior changes. To me, its just time for some algos to start their job.
6:52: Long 96.92, -10. Then long again 96.86 based on the scenario determined before. If stopped, will wait for pit open. Otherwise looking for 97.40-97.60 area for exit.
7:57: Messed it up completely this morning. The purpose of writing down "If stopped, will wait for pit open" was to help actually do that. Got long 4 times - all stopped. Now definitely a timeout.
8:06: Whats up with 96.20. Someone wants price to stay below exactly this price. Broke finally but a whole lot of buying was absorbed there.
8:17: Clearly on the wrong side today. Just as yesterday. Still have a long way to go. Proven wrong 6 times in a row now. Clearly the short was up there at 97.50 area.
8:35: Most likely a failed A down now that 20 minutes are up.
9:02: Order flow waaaay too different today. Cannot follow it. 7 losses so far and I am not sure what is going on. Its not the normal routine today, thats for sure. 96.20 is like a magnet today. Really heavy trading exactly at that spot. Now worried about the losses. How else will I learn? It almost looks like a whole bunch of buying has happened at this 96-96.30 level and lots of people banking on this going up.
9:20: Whole lot of stops below 95.95. Different algos in play today. Definitely not a usual day where you can trade regular order flow.
9:58: Different order flow but still got to take the perfect setups. Long from 96.04. Out at 96.45. Took 31 minutes. I wish I could hold till 97 because thats where this is headed.
10:10: Potential long from 96.40 area. Not taking it for lack of a better level or uber favorable order flow.
10:25: Scalping opportunities are there. Wondering if I should try and get to breakeven. Whatever it is, it will be on the long side. Its a failed A down.
10:50: Old habits are dying really hard. Even though now I know what order flow is telling me and I have big bold lines and various symbols telling me favorable areas to take trades, I have taken about 4 trades today based on my old habits. Just took one - Saw 96.50 area break, pulled back to 96.50 and I went long thinking this is where it goes to 97 but didnt see why the pullback started and how strong it was. If anyone asks me, why 97? I really dont know. Got to STOP THINKING and just trading the charts! What a doofus!
I had no business trading the pre-open the way I did. One trade was maybe OK to see if the Asian low held but beyond that, I should have waited for my prime setups.
I think lately, I am letting my confirmation tool become the trade entry tool. Instead of waiting for my levels and then confirming the entry, I am taking trades just based on order flow randomly. 19 trades today and the one that worked was the only one per plan and was responsible for cutting my losses in half. I should have held that one from OR low to OR high - been through this so many times in my head.
The transition from a 30K combine to a 50K combine needs preparation and I wasnt ready for it. I should really be trading 2 contracts if thats what keeps me focused on cherry picking my trades. Will have to think about it... 19 trades in a day??? I think thats one too many!
Last edited by LogicalTrader; October 24th, 2013 at 03:32 PM.
7:01: Long 97.18 from EOR high. Order flow confirms so far but entry might be a little early. Will try once more if stopped.
7:05: Stop to par after 10 ticks move in favor. This could test lower so got to protect. Otherwise will look for exit around Asian or Euro high.
7:08: Starting today, taking only 1 entry per setup instead of getting in multiple times at the same area. This will determine trade management method, initial stop loss, move to par etc.
7:12: Didnt take much heat on this one. Now just got to manage it right.
7:35: Wanted to hold but with 1 contract cannot do much. So out at 97.62 for 44 ticks.
8:00: 2 quick losses trying long from break of pre-open developing OR. Should have been only 1 per the rule I just established less than an hour ago. -18 total. Long day ahead. Got to keep it cool.
8:05: 97 is the line in the sand. If that breaks, I am not sure what. So will attempt a failed break of 97 long.
8:06: This could have been a close the "gap" move to 97.11.
8:09: This is a new pattern in orderflow - I will now call it the "big boys fight" which is what is going on at 97.20, same thing that was going on yesterday at 96.20. For me, this means stay out!
8:16: OR established: 97.70 - 97.02. Lets see if we get a failed A down which would be in line with the thought about 97 before.
8:18: In hindsight, the exit of my first trade was also the entry for a short - I still have trouble seeing this. So if I would be short, when would I get out? That could be my long now.
8:23: Orderflow short right here at .30. Wonder what they are doing. Trap longs, push below 97, then rip to the upside?
8:46: Short 97.32 for a scalp. This could be classified as a failed A down. But will look for 97 if my theory is correct.
9:12: Clearly my theory was wrong. The failed A down was established before my short attempt. Will remember that next time. Now this is an A up. Order flow in favor at OR high. Long from 97.64.
9:15: Stop to par after 10 tick move in favor. It could still try to collect some longs.
9:17: Stopped at par. Will try lower but not right here. Maybe around 97.50
9:26: Short 97.53. Just following charts now. No theories.
9:30: Its a big boy fight. Caught in the middle.
9:35: Stop to par. Big boys could blow either way.
9:48: Short again 97.54. Order flow strongly suggests move down. Hope I am reading it right.
10:00: Still a big boy fight here. Unsure what to do so will just stay in it until it moves 10-12 ticks in favor and move stop to par.
10:02: Stop to par. I will leave this area alone if stopped now.
10:04: Broke as expected. Now have to manage it right and not get too cocky.
10:21: Thinking of all those who shorted 97.80 sitting comfortably with runners on. Just need more screen time. This is doable.
10:25: Big mistake on my part. Turned a winner into a loser. Very poor trade management.
10:37: Need a reset in my thinking. Small targets are OK. Does not need to be at least 30 ticks every time. Have to go with the charts. 97.30 held with good confirmation. That was also a long from the order flow point of view. There are 4 BE trades today, each went for at least 10-15 ticks. Those add up. I am getting the entries right but trade management needs to improve a lot.
11:03: They might blow thru the OR high here. Will look for long on pullback.
11:05: Maybe not. Big boys playground. Maybe I am done for the day
11:58: Two more losses in lunch hour dead chop. Just not timing it right today. Short from 97.73 now. Should have shorted this level the first or the second time it was here. Lets see where it goes this time.
1:03: Done for the day. Learnt a lot today. Hindsight analysis later.
Last edited by LogicalTrader; October 25th, 2013 at 02:03 PM.
TST has approved funding pending live trader prep which is similar to a combine with rules that are the same as a funded account. A few things change and I believe they will help me further.
I will be required to stop trading before I lose more than 50% of my realized daily profit. So a day like yesterday would not turn into a loser. I am happy about this rule.
I cannot be in a position before a major economic event. I checked the eco calendar I have been asked to use and most of the events in the list occur at 7:30 in the morning and the major news event after 8 is the CL inventories report and I dont want to be in a position before such events so that also helps. I will just get out when the bid/ask stack thins if I am in a position.
These are a good addition to the existing ruleset. I believe they will help.
Also established is the fact that I do not have to clear a larger combine to get more funding. Once I progress to becoming a senior trader, I will be able to talk to TST folks to see if I can have more equity to trade larger size. Until then, I have to trade CL with 1 contract and I am perfectly fine with that.
So, the next goal is to trade at least 10 days and get to $750 profit target. Once achieved, I should have a funded account.
Plan of Action:
Lately I started trading the smaller/faster chart but it has been a disadvantage because my number of trades have increased. Previously, the "setups" were fewer so I was forced to wait and act only when a good setup occurred. This past week, I have meddled with my entry setup and it has hurt me. So I am going back to my slower charts where I dont get excited about small changes in the order flow. My journal from the past 2-3 days is hilarious to me after the fact . What a doofus!
Even though the LTP account is available to trade starting Monday, I will not start trading it for at least another week. I will instead trade in my 50K combine using the previous slower setup and see if I can get back to replicating my previous results. Once comfortable, I will trade the LTP account.
My trading plan is very simple and its best described by the man himself:
The following user says Thank You to LogicalTrader for this post:
6:33: Long 97.60 from EOR high support.
6:50: Potential resistance here at WOR/Asian high. Stop to par.
6:55: As expected, having difficulty at .76 area. Past this, next area is 98. Will surely look to exit there.
7:11: Always an issue with me about taking early profits. Had 25 ticks. When should I have gotten out? Took a par stop. I saw the bigger resistance at previous settle at 97.86. Almost got out...
7:13: Another issue is that my entry was based on a support area that confirmed a long. It still is a support area so moving stop to par is the opposite of what I should be doing. Why am I selling where I should be buying?
7:18: Not buying yet. Will mostly wait until pit session starts. We could test WOR low which could be a better buy... who knows, it could just break down from here after the spike above WOR high. Leaving it alone until core setups form.
8:04: Thankful for my slower charts today. Would have been chopped up a couple of times by now if using faster charts.
8:10: Short from 97.70 at WOR high resistance. Chased it. And took a stop -12.
8:23: Long 97.91 from previous resistance turned support area. We are above WOR high. Its a long bias for me. Maybe a bit too early. Will try again if stopped from WOR high.
8:30: Major fight here. Stop has held.
8:32: Stopped out and re-entered long 97.83. Note about stops and levels. Which one was more likely to hold? Rez turned sup or WOR high? Need a bit more patience.
8:34: Not reading it right today. Got to stand aside now.
8:42: Good amount of sell side activity so far. Dwindling now. Leaving this area alone for now. Will wait a bit.
8:52: Confused if I should trade it from a failed A up perspective or WOR bias? So far pre-open and at open action was readable but couldn't capitalize. Now its a big boy fight at WOR high. Who's got the bigger gun with more bullets?
9:05: Had the right idea, just couldnt time it well enough. Now they are pushing to break 98 and might.
9:09: Last try long 97.89. Done for the day if stopped.
9:11: Stop to par. Got to hold it above 98 for 5 minutes and then the whole world sees it. Otherwise its a 30 tick box.
9:21: OR high will have rez. Holding still. Locked in a few ticks. Wont give it all back.
9:28: Failed A up vs WOR fight here. Who wins?
9:32: Maybe both win. I am out with 10 ticks. Hope it doesnt just get me and go
9:41: Got to go find a hole to bury myself now. Wow. 3 longs and nothing to show for it
10:01: Out from the short hibernation. Its a full bull bias now. Above WOR and A up confirmed. Looking for logical pullback levels to go long.
10:20: This could be it for the longs. Orderflow suggests two sided trading. Will look for a box and see if I can scalp out some ticks.
10:31: 98.80 - 98.40 potential box.
11:02: Order flow shows short. Tried one, no good. But definitely do not want to buy here. May short slightly higher which would be my last trade if stopped.
11:05: Short 98.53. Order flow confirms. Will look for OR high as target or possibly WOR high - all depends on what the charts say.
11:11: Par stop after 10 ticks in favor.
11:16: If trading 2, would have taken 1 off at 98.36-38 for 15 ticks at least. Lets see.
11:21: Good to see sellers are persistent at 98.35 area. Its favorable for a break downwards the longer they stay here. Otherwise, I got nothing to lose.
11:27: Out at 98.20 for 33 ticks. Wish I had a runner. This could go a bit more.
11:31: As long as we are wishing, wish I had 2 runners, one for Euro high and another for WOR high. Wouldn't be surprised if we see 97.76
11:54: Wouldnt go long or short here at OR high. Would stay short if I had more on. Weird day today, almost read it right. All said and done, this is the way to go - that is confirmed. These are the levels to lean on and trade off of. Nothing else matters in CL. Per the time rules, the longer it stays above OR, the better it is for longs. Longer time frame order flow is long. Shorter time frame is a mess.
Missed trades prior/at open. The failed break of all lows and then the minor pullback from 98.20 at open. I was much fixated on the WOR and wasnt sure about fading the first move down to 97.42ish but the 2nd one could have been taken thinking pullback to WOR high - which it was.
I moved away from trailing my stop so why I did it on the trade of the day, I am not sure - fear of another breakeven after 30+tick in favor caused it but I have to consistently do the same thing even if it is to prove that it does not work. Today would have been a great day had I taken it.
Even while I watched the OR high break, I had marked the area I would exit at 98.70-98.80 based on fib extensions and I should have shorted that area once order flow confirmed it so strongly. Took the later short which saved the day but should have capitalized more.
I made the comment "longer it stays above OR high, better it is for longs" so what was the reason I didnt go long. A up confirmed, pullback to OR high = classic long entry. I had more than sufficient time to go long and there was nothing saying get out until we hit 98.65 area.
Good lessons learnt. Onward and upward....
Last edited by LogicalTrader; October 28th, 2013 at 07:51 PM.