7:59 AM: Short 101.49
8:04 AM: Stop to par
8:07 AM: Stopped out at par. Should I have taken the developing OR low? Will ponder later. Went 27 ticks in favor
8:09 AM: Trying one more time from same level. Dont like the 101.44 level against me. Its a bet - hoping it breaks.
8:15 AM: Stop to par - again.
8:20 AM: Stopped out at par again. Went 19 ticks in favor. Will wait for 101.64 to short again or I missed it.
8:35 AM: Last try short. I forced this one. Didnt like the confirmation
8:45 AM: 3rd time, stop to par.
8:52 AM: Some stops run above 101.55. Hoping this will give it a push...
8:59 AM: It did give it a push, only enough to collect some more stops on the other side below 101.42. Trade is still short to 101.10 or at least OR low. Thinking about time stop, hmmmmm...
9:04 AM: Its the "Stop Collector" algo in action so far. Some more shorts collected above 101.50.
9:07 AM: Got my stop. 101.40 level stood its ground. This one went 26 ticks.
9:13 AM: Short from Asian low with confirmation. What kept me from reversing at 101.40? Will ponder later.
9:18 AM: Stopped and re-entry short from EOR low. Will WOR high hold? (Picture says WOR low, should be high). Free trade as I write this. Target 101.69ish. Thinking 5 ticks before OR high.
9:23 AM: Got me at par. I may have gotten too aggressive on this one. I had the Asian low and EOR low in my favor. Went 19 ticks in favor. If I was trading for 15 ticks, would have been done by now
9:30 AM: Longs only now. Shorts for real scalps only unless bias changes.
9:50 AM: I might be done for the day. Need to record this thought: Have to consider days range with the ATR to figure out the odds of a move continuing.
10:00 AM: Trying long for Euro high. Trade basis is A up confirmed, TL long, order flow confirmed on smaller chart but not the main chart.
10:09 AM: That went a little, wanted to protect it but hesitated. Order flow confirmed a little lower, hesitated again to take it long. Actually got into it at 101.80 and bailed for whatever reason.
10:13 AM: S&P spiking on news seems like... whatever it is has no impact on CL
10:16 AM: Now it could go higher since I am not in it . Done for the day. Hindsight analysis later. Down 26 ticks today. Will mess up TST stats but I am not trading for stats anymore.
10:45 AM: See lots of resistance at Euro OR. Trying one more short from 102.06. Will try to keep it a scalp. Order flow confirms in all charts this time. The only negative is that its an A up and I am really pushing it now.
10:52 AM: Its a dog fight. Leaving stop at entry. Want to see 101.69 for this to make sense.
11:19 AM: Patience pays. Got OR high. Out at 101.63 for 43 cents. Now definitely done for the day. Hindsight analysis later. Wonder if we will see 101.10 now
11:30 AM: If I had any more fight left in me, I would be long at 101.60. Getting all sorts of confirmation to go long. Of course, its an A up and this is the OR high so thats definitely notable.
PMA helps reinforce the levels so I will keep that going. Also going to attach an "after the fact" picture to compare PMA with what actually happened like I did today.
Overall, very happy with the current trading method. Feel very comfortable leaning on these levels. I would have made over 100 ticks today if I was taking 15-20 ticks, which I will once size increases, so very happy to note that 7 out of the 8 trades today went at least 15 ticks before coming back. The only 2 losses were the ones I forced without enough confirmation and concrete levels to lean on.
Also happy to note the my "trojan horse" algo works well to identify order flow. Attaching picture for ES to note that some fine tuning is still required but so far it is doing a great job for both CL and ES and combined with these levels to lean on, this looks like my holy grail.
That last long from 101.60 that I mentioned would have gone about 25 ticks. Knowing me, I would have trailed to par and got nothing on it but would like to note that the level I was gunning for since the morning did finally get hit at 101.10.
TST wise, today's p&l does not represent the progress made today but this is just the 4th of 5th day with the new plan. Didn't someone wise say that this is a marathon and not a sprint? Thats exactly how I am treating it now.
I will have a good night. Back bright and early tomorrow.
Last edited by LogicalTrader; October 15th, 2013 at 06:15 PM.
6:48 AM: So far price playing ping pong between EOR high and WOR low. Order flow suggests up so far but who knows. That could change in a blink. Watching EOR/Euro low for a potential long.
7:07 AM: Note: Cancelled long order at 101.16. Orderflow became neutral after suggesting long. Will wait to see what happens. Maybe reconsider if little lower.
7:12 AM: Long from break of lows. Looking for 101.20 or 101.40. Short bias if stopped. Will bring stop to par at 101.10
7:17 AM: Took the stop. Will wait now for better location. Note: a slightly wider stop would have been better. The location, order flow was fine. Would take it again.
7:57 AM: Marking potential ES entries/exits based on similar plan as CL to review after a few days. I was at my desk when the attached ES Trade 1 took place. Mentally noted the long at 98.25 with a 1706 target. Meanwhile CL is "thinking". 3 catalyst times ahead - 8 AM, 8:15 AM and 8:30 AM to watch for.
8:00 AM: Long at retest of developing OR low. Got out with 18 ticks. This was a deviation from the plan. Should have waited for at least 30 ticks. As noted in the previous long, 101.20 - 101.40 is still achievable.
8:22 AM: OR 101.18 - 100.82. So far looks like an A up. Wish I would have held the long from 100.86
8:29 AM: More . Hit 102.40. Missed trade of the day. Will be very careful now as I would be had I stayed in it.
8:53 AM: Note: ES target 1706 hit. The horse hasnt confirmed an exit yet. 1707.25 would be my exit right now.
8:56 AM: More . I couldn't figure out where to get long on an A up confirmed day. Missed it. Next CL area is 102. This was the classic failed A down to A up trade. ES exit right now is 1711.75.
9:21 AM: My head is messed up now. Didnt take the short from 101.95. Was good for 30 ticks at least. Might have to call it a day right here.
9:24 AM: mfb took the same long from 100.93. Got out at 101.38, re-entered and I am sure held it till 102. Probably went short around 101.95 and got another 30 ticks. Will check his journal later. Gets too distracting for my own good. Yup, he did exactly that.
9:55 AM: twiddling thumbs. Would be interested in longs if we get to 101.45-101.50 area, otherwise might be done for the day. The horse suggests we might test a little higher - at least 102.20 or even 102.40. Haven't seen capitulation yet on the up side
10:10 AM: Long from pullback to 102. Not enough confirmation so location might be dicey but hypothesis is a test of 102.40 might be in the play here.
10:14 AM: Was thinking whether I should just take 30 ticks or go for 102.40 and in the meantime target got hit at 102.31 so 30 ticks it is - out flat. BTW 102.40 just got hit so the hypothesis was correct, just needed a location to get long. After 102.40-50 area, 102.80 is next.
10:25 AM: Still havent seen capitulation. The short horses on all charts are silent. Do we have more to go here? 102.80, 103.20?
10:49 AM: Passive mode now. Or rather opportunistic mode now. Making a note about the horse indicating initiated buying at 102. Picture attached. The long was at 102.07 if this ends up being the leg up.
11:14 AM: Wow! Got to feed my horse right. This might be my Trojan Stallion - the algo buster! Wouldn't short this even at 102.70. This is as bullish as I have seen. The horse gave me 2 opportunities to get long.
1:00 PM: Tried long from 102.61 for possible run towards the highs. Trailed stop to par after it moved about 15 ticks. Got stopped. Slipped a tick.
Not much different in hindsight. I think the tools that I have called it right as it was happening. The order flow algo (aka "Trojan Stallion" is what I will call it now) was right on the money 3 days in a row. The levels worked great. I saw the opportunities and missed them. Got some crumbs but so not representative of the true potential here.
TST wise a good day. 4 more days to go, need to make about 65 ticks. Stats are still messed up but not worried about them.
Overall a disappointing day from the execution point of view but looking forward to using these tools to their true potential.
Last edited by LogicalTrader; October 16th, 2013 at 06:01 PM.
5:41 AM: I am unsure about trading this early so will try it for a couple of days to see if there is any advantage. Took a short from EOR low with confirmation. Got stopped.
5:51 AM: The setup was still there so re-entered a few ticks higher. Looking for developing Euro low or WOR low. It doesnt move much this early on
6:04 AM: After 10-12 ticks move in favor moved stop to par. This will take some time getting used to - just too slow
6:10 AM: Stopped at par.
6:40 AM: The confirmations are different in low volume. The edge isnt great pre-market so I might have to let it go trading early morning.
7:15 AM: The hypothesis was correct in looking for a move from EOR low/WOR high down to developing Euro low or even WOR low. Just couldn't execute correctly. Will research this...
7:20 AM: Inventory report is at 11 AM today. Strange that an hour earlier the EIA website had a message saying something like the report wont be out but now its gone so assuming that report is going to be out at 10 AM. So OR would be 7:30 AM-10:05 AM today.
8:03 AM: Got long from 101 level thinking pullback to WOR low. Didnt happen. Quick stop out. There wasnt enough confirmation or maybe stop was too tight. Hindsight analysis later. Have to be careful now. 1 bullet left. BTW, this is 100 ticks from my first short today. Didnt execute it well enough. Hypothesis was correct on being short.
8:13 AM: Current options: pullback to 101.10 short, pullback to WOR low short, long from 100.60 area. Thats it so far.
8:15 AM: Got super confirmation for long. Took it and stop already to par. Have to protect from max loss today.
8:29 AM: Got out with 11 ticks. Could still go but I saw what I saw to get out in terms of order flow. Plus 101.10 is coming up which is a potential short. Hindsight analysis later.
8:35 AM: It happened again. I got out, in hindsight, for little reason. Trade was good for 30+ ticks. Just takes a bit to learn to trust your own analysis. Maybe someone else can trade for me . Wifey? Hell no!
8:45 AM: Still not trusting my research. Why didnt I short 101.10 area? The stallion said go short.
8:53 AM: ES chart confirmed a short (image attached). Hypothetical trade. Report in a few minutes so protect when possible.
9:12 AM: ES trade stopped out for loss if not protected. Went about 2 points in favor. Technically an A up confirmed now so pullback to OR high was the long. I didnt mark it then so no trade, even hypothetically.
9:25 AM: Just checked mfb's journal. It is encouraging to note that he looked at the 101.80 as a short area, didnt take it. Went long at the same area that I did AND held it. Then shorted the 101.10 area and got out around 100.50. What a difference execution makes.
9:38 AM: Pulled back to 101.10 but I had no confirmation so skipped it. Short was from 101.01 if I had confirmation. Will research later...
9:57 AM: That would have been good for 30+ ticks. Stallion didnt agree... hmmm...
10:00 AM: No inventory numbers today looks like.
10:12 AM: Long from below the 100.60 area based on super stallion confirmation. Would be much better if entry was above 100.60 but lets see. Stopped out before I could finish writing. I am pushing it now after having missed what would have ended my day profitably. Taking a break.
10:23 AM: Good trap at 100.20. Stallion confirmed long. Stop already to par. Want to hold this considering the ATR is already large enough today and this might be the low of day
10:26 AM: Got my stop at entry and rocketed upwards. Running out of adrenaline here.
10:30 AM: I am going to go throw up now. Thats the 3rd missed/got out early trade today that went 30+ ticks!!!
10:35 AM: Meanwhile ES has left the building. As noted before, had I seen the A up earlier, this would be a trade still long from 1711.75. All the pieces are there, I just have to put them together.
11:12 AM: Got long at the break to new lows by a couple of ticks at 100.16, had great confirmation. It came back and took my stop by the tick and is already 20 ticks in favor of my entry. Dont know how to describe this day. Wont think about it now. Need to step aside for a while.
Last edited by LogicalTrader; October 18th, 2013 at 06:41 AM.
7:05 AM: Long from break/pullback from 101.70 area. Looking for WOR high at 102.17.
7:09 AM: And stopped. Will rest now until past 7:30.
7:15 AM: Order flow still suggests long. 101.64-70 area is there. Might go again. Trying 101.71
7:22 AM: Cancelled. Letting it go until pit session time.
8:21 AM: Short on further sell side confirmation below WOR low. Actually I am not sure where the WOR is. Does it adjust or not. Will see. Just realized, this could be a failed A down. Its a mess.
8:28 AM: Got stop to par after 10+ cent move in favor. Not sure about this. WOR low has held so far to the tick. Hoping for downside targets of possibly Euro low, but will take whatever I get based on order flow.
8:37 AM: This ought to qualify as an A down. unsure where to exit so will just hold for a typical failed A up, A down confirmed setup. Currently resisting at Asian high.
8:51 AM: Exited EOR high for 51 cents.
8:55 AM: That was a good confirmation for a long too. Will have to keep these things in mind. Confirmed exit for a trade might also be a confirmed entry for a reverse trade.
10:10 AM: Short from pullback to OR low. Good confirmation, maybe should have waited for OR low to actually get hit. Will see what happens
10:15 AM: Now OR low got tagged. Stop is still good. Lets see if it goes now.
10:30 AM: Stop to par. 101.22 is holding things for some reason. Below that we could see 100.87.
10:45 AM: Got nothing to lose so will sit on it. Its an A down.
11:00 AM: Boy, I should have held it to where I knew it was going to go. It got to 100.87 but I got out at 101.04 for 36 ticks. Good job holding as much as I did (50 minutes) but should have had a bit more patience, like I had said, what did I have to lose? Nothing.
11:04 AM: Entered long at 100.89. Stop already to par. Going for 30ish ticks.
11:17 AM: TST Combine target achieved. Wanted to get out with 30 ticks but also had one eye on the TST target so got out with 26 ticks. Such a difference execution makes. You can have as many ideas as you want but its worthless if not executed correctly. Total 101 ticks today.
2 trades were missed in the morning. The long from WOR low and then the short from the failed A up. Both would have worked and both had decent confirmation.
These types of days are easier to trade instead of very fast moving days where order flow keeps shifting every few minutes. It allows you to stay in trades longer because order flow remains consistent throughout the trade.
Notable things in the last few days are that I have been able to correctly anticipate the probability of where price may go but only today, I got the execution correct, primarily because it was a slow moving day but it wasn't choppy by any means. On other days, I still need to do what I did today. Get into the trades early so that the stop becomes wider automatically. Using the faster chart for confirmation worked well today. So going forward, keep using the faster chart for confirmation at pre-determined areas. Also, just like today, keep in mind that exits of one trade may be entries for the next one like the last trade today which I took but the missed the one after the exit of the first trade.
Similar concept is also working well in ES. Faster chart for confirmation and similar levels for location.
TST: The current P&L is greater than the required to be eligible for funding but I was just told that I still have to trade the remaining 2 days. I plan to not trade any differently just to clear the combine. If the opportunity is there, I will take the trades.
Good confidence boost today, reversing the execution debacle from yesterday.
I will have a good weekend. Back bright and early Monday morning. Inventory report Monday and 1st day of new contract month = expect great movement.
Last edited by LogicalTrader; October 18th, 2013 at 05:41 PM.
The CL combine will end this week. Whether I stay above the combine target or not is irrelevant. The goal isn't to achieve the combine target, it is to achieve consistency and I still have work to do in that area.
In hindsight, Friday was one of the most favorable types of days for my trading methodology. Price opened away from Asian/Euro range and bounced around in between making it easier to pick logical trade locations. I yet have to successfully trade all the different types of scenarios where price moves out of the overnight range, including the US open range OR the US open range is really wide and price does not break either ways - basically when the trade locations are not there, I cannot foresee how I will trade it.
The purpose of writing all this down is to make me think what I would do in the absence of the usual trade locations to pick and I think I will just have to sit on my hands until I can determine favorable locations to trade during such sessions.
The PMA isnt helping that much so I am dropping it going forward. Instead, I am just going to focus on the pre open trading scenarios, if there are any.
I will complete the remaining 2 days of the CL combine and then start with my pending 50K combine. For these next 2 days, I will profile hypothetical ES trades as price moves and mark them in the journal. I dont think I can trade 2 markets at the same time but in order for my 50K combine to at least roll over, I have to trade ES to at least get the P&L above 0. Since I am seeing similarities in both ES and CL, I am not sure which one will suit my initial trading more so wouldn't hurt to try and profile ES while trading CL for a few days.
The following user says Thank You to LogicalTrader for this post:
6:45: Missed long from 100.04. Hadn't yet completed analyzing overnight activity and saw the opportunity at 100.04 to go long. Placed the order and then cancelled. The whole day is still ahead.
7:58: This is uncharted territory for me. Wait and watch approach now. After the 2nd push, it does not seem like its over. We could see 1 more push down probably right at the open. All this based on order flow.
8:02: They tried and failed. There was no chance to get into the bounce from 99.79
8:06: The algo lights lit up exactly at 8:05. Went short 100.22 based on previous theory and confirmation is there.
8:11: Stopped out. The idea is still valid. Will wait for confirmation
8:17: Same idea. Trying again from 100.43. Last try short.
8:21: Nope. Got me again. If it has to go, it will go without me now.
9:05: Short with slight confirmation from 100.38
9:20: Hasnt gone anywhere. Inventories in 10 minutes. I might have to cut this short soon.
9:28: Out with small loss. The order flow is still short but cannot trade the report
9:43: Order flow was short. How can a 1 lot trade trade this?
9:52: Short from 100.28 from previous support turned resistance. Order flow confirms. Last trade of the day if stopped.
9:56: Scratched. Got nervous. Will wait for better trade location.
10:13: Kick in the butt for me. This one was a good trade. Probably see new lows now. Patterns suggesting 99.53. If they crack 100 again.
10:18: Staying out until I see price at the OR high/low - 99.79 - 100.70. Definitely difficult price action today. No clear cut direction or intention yet. Dont want to scalp order flow yet. Reserving that for winning days.
10:31: More kicks in the butt
10:50: Algos having a great day today. Frustrating everyone who is thinking. Eventually, we should see some fireworks. I want to be there when they happen. 1 bullet left. Saving it.
10:53: Whole bunch of buying came in just below 100. Not forced but initiated. Note for the future. This might be the incentive shorts wanted.
11:41: All I see is slow drift up and then algos collecting the buy orders. I think <99.80 still in the hunt here. There is no good location to short here.
11:55: This may be it for me today. Got to go. Unless we have fireworks in the last 30 minutes.
12:17: 99.53 to the tick! Question I have to answer is, how could I have gotten short? OR rather, stayed short. Gone short 4 times already. Idea was right, couldnt find a good location and when I found one, it was either the report or me getting nervous blah blah.
14:10: There was some amazing sell side activity - all initiated, not forced at around 99.70 - do we have the LTF entering a position here or calling it quits?
I am afraid of days like these - which is what I meant to address in my post yesterday - to prepare myself to not look for mandatory participation in the markets. I didn't go crazy today so its thats a good thing and I know that on a good day I can make a lot more ticks than I lost today.
The lack of opportunity today got me thinking...
Having a trading plan is good - it defines certain parameters under which you always look to operate but NOW I dont think a trading plan should be a set of rules that are set in stone and you MUST adhere to them otherwise you are not doing a good job etc etc. I think a trading plan should be more like guidelines that define the trading ideas with its description and its dos and donts BUT which also leaves enough room for IMPROVISATION.
I am writing down all this to clear a few things I was thinking while the day progressed today. I wanted to start scalping for 15-25 ticks today while waiting for my levels and I let many clear scalp setups go by and saw most of them work for anywhere between 10 and 35 ticks. Some didnt work out but not by more than 7-8 ticks. Overall, I know I would have at least broken even today if not finished up. But, I didnt take them because they are not part of my trading plan and thats what started this thought process.
I dont think I want to keep the practice of adding all the possible setups that I can trade to the plan before I can trade them. I dont even think some of them can be described - for instance, pre-open, CL formed a low of 99.80 and right a 8 AM, it tries to go one more time only to be met with a forceful rejection at 99.79 - so forceful, that it jumped almost 15 ticks in a millisecond. My rules prevented me from taking that long because it was too far away from the low by the time it could be taken by a human. So I think I should be able to take such trades without having to worry if I am deviating from my plan. There are enough hurdles already so why should I add one more by requiring every trade I take to fall within a strict set of rules.
Part of the hesitation and low confidence in entries comes from the fact that I think I am deviating from the plan and if I lose I am going to feel like crap because I didnt follow the plan. Its just adding more stress to an already stressful job.
No decisions/changes today but will keep thinking about this...
1 more day to go in the TST combine and I don't feel any extra pressure to perform any differently tomorrow. Just like today, I will try to get better at gaining consistency and if this combine does not work out in the process, so be it. Will move on to the next.
Last edited by LogicalTrader; October 21st, 2013 at 09:17 PM.
The following user says Thank You to LogicalTrader for this post:
Price has remained within the asian range - 99.25-99.58 mostly briefly spiking the asian high for a tick or so and returning back. Before NY OR is formed, higher probability trade would be a failed break low of the asian session. No bias for me but probabilities of range bound day between the current lows and WOR is higher so will look for that. Break below current lows is uncharted territory for me.
6:30: Algo lights lit up. Could see some action pretty soon.
6:45: They have held 99.30 all thru the london session. Trying to hold once more. Looking for 99.25 failed break.
7:00: Didnt happen yet. They seemed to have held 99.30 once again at least for now.
8:00: I kept waiting for the 99.24 bus while the 99.30 bus came along and said "you want to come, going to 100" and I said, "No, I will wait for the 99.24". What a doofus!
8:10: Order flow suggests more move up, but what will happen at 100? My guess, they blow through it - just a guess, not betting for it. I have missed 3 entries so far. Domestic duties called so no regrets. Will be patient. All good things....
8:37: Long from 99.67. Early entry due to jittery fingers but in about the area I was looking to enter. Order flow suggests long, .75 is a short term resistance area so will watch that.
8:46: Stop to par. Its past .75 level but who knows.
8:55: They will most likely take 100 as previously determined. I got out at 99.99.
8:55: Now what do I do? I am above the TST combine target. If I stop now, I may be eligible for funding. To trade more or not to trade more, that is the question.
9:00: Clearing one TST combine after 6 attempts is a milestone in my trading career. I want to keep it that way. So done for the day but today is a 100+ tick type of day because the peripheries are known. 99.30 is most likely the low now and it wont be surprising if we see 100.97.
9:40: 100 is a buy right now. Super order flow confirmation. Stop can be 99.95. That strong.
10:04: Good thing I am out for the day. Must be some sort of news because ES also dropped about 13 points. Clearly would have had my back side whooped if I was trading this.
10:16: I have 98.40 as the last level from various sources.
10:25: Order flow going long at 98.75-98.68. Wouldn't have taken it but just noting it for future reference.
10:40: Would have been good for 30 ticks or so.
10:57: 99.25-99.30 are is showing good short order flow. Not surprising since this is the area from the morning that held all through the london session. Also OR low. Maybe this is where they say, enough, lets go see 98.40.
11:22: Wow, right again. Good for 30 ticks at least. Some support here at 98.95 area but this might be the final push down.
11:25: This either goes down in the next couple of minutes or so or I would at least exit here. This could become a minor longish area.
11:30: Should go down.. order flow back in favor.
11:40: 226K contracts traded today. Do they have more bullets left for this push? BADA BING! As I was writing this.
12:20: Wasnt wrong about this being a 100+ tick day. 1 more push to 98.40...
12:53: That was fun. Wish I traded it but still it was fun. Now it has my permission to meander its way up
1:07: Since we are having fun, order flow calls long at 98.30
1:13: Trail stops getting hit it seems. If that is the case, this could go on. Otherwise, they really want to close below 98.50.
Last edited by LogicalTrader; October 22nd, 2013 at 02:14 PM.