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The Logical Trading Journal
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The Logical Trading Journal

  #41 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
Houston, TX
 
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Platform: TradeStation
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Favorite Futures: CL
 
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Day 28

Hesitated today and it cost me.

Price came up to OR high with enough confirmation to short. Took it but got stopped out. Nothing wrong with the trade. Then, instead of maintaining the short bias, I hesitated taking the next short which had even better confirmation and instead went long at the OR high. This cost me my confidence for the day. I stopped trading after this realizing that had I taken the short, I would have been done for the day.

Chart shows confirmed entries.

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ES plan is almost final. I am almost ready to approach it similar to CL using Fisher's ACD. Will finalize it by tomorrow and start trading Thursday onward.

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  #42 (permalink)
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That long you took that stopped you out was a good trade. It was a BOPB, it just didn't work.

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  #43 (permalink)
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Days 29 & 30


Posting for both yesterday and Today.

Still trading only CL and I want it to be CL only until I am trading it consistently well.

I have 2 active combines at this time. I have determined that I am most comfortable trading CL and ES. Good thing is that the current CL combine has 8 more days to go and the newer 50K combine has 17 days to go and is valid until 11/26 and that gives me enough time to trade 1 combine at a time. So I am going to focus on CL for the next 8 trading days and then start trading CL again on the other combine. I will just bring the ES P&L to > 0 in that combine and take it forward on just CL.

Feel a whole lot of confidence boost from seeing the market movements confirm to the new trading plan. So far I have failed on execution, and that is expected when the plan changes so much, but just as before, I will start executing well and UNLIKE before, I believe this plan has a CONSISTENT edge for any given TYPE of trading day.

Wednesday: I waited for the failed A down for 2 hours since it was inventory wednesday. Got the failed A down, got long but couldn't hold it. There was no reason to get out. Entry was 101.28 with target of around 101.80. The trade worked but I wasnt it in. All the trades I made yesterday were around this idea except for the last one which was a WWIT (What was I thinking?) trade. Eventually, these WWIT trades will get purged out of my system.

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Today: Same idea today also. There was much pressure on the sell side at the open to take out yesterday's lows and I wanted a piece of that. Unfortunately, didnt time it right so nearly just broke even over 3 attempts. BUT the idea was right and the timing will fix itself over time.

Then the bread and butter trade setup - the failed A down - and I HESITATED and MISSED it, for no reason other than the ramblings in my head. The long was at 101.26 just as yesterday it was at 101.28.

Now since it was a failed A down, I wanted to see if the OR high would get taken out and it would be an A up. AND it was. I waited for price to pull back to the OR high, confirmed the entry was good and took it from 101.91. The p&l today is what it is due to this trade only. Would have been better if I had A) timed my earlier short better and B) taken the failed A down. ALL in good time...

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  #44 (permalink)
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Day 31

"Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face" - Mike Tyson.

"You can take the little jabs, but you need to avoid the knock-out punches" - Mark Fisher.

Every trader has a plan and my goal is to not get punched in the face and avoid the subsequent knock-out. Since the new plan went into place, I have taken several severe jabs and the primary reason is that I cannot follow the new plan yet. Its simple enough, take only the failed A and failed C trades. On top of that, I misunderstood what a failed A was! I thought that the OR had to be broken for a failed A to setup but then I reread the book and thats not true.


Mark Fisher
A rubber band trade is made when the market approaches or just touches a target and snaps back. In that instance, you would go short just below the A up or go long just above the A down. Your stop on the trade would be the A up/down price point. Or, you'd exit the trade if the market didn't move in the direction you anticipated within your time frame.

Mark B. Fisher. The Logical Trader: Applying a Method to the Madness (p. 28). Kindle Edition.

Both situations mentioned above occurred today but I didnt take any of them because I didnt understand it well enough. Instead, I tried to emulate Vince Virgil and scalp out some ticks - thats not even in the plan!

Obviously disappointed about this whole week with my understanding and execution of the plan. Good thing is that the combine is still good and I have 7 more days to go and then 17 more days in the 50K combine, so I still have about 5 more weeks to get this right.

Patience is indeed a virtue and so is self control.

Meahwhile, been coding my charts to auto-plot levels required for ACD. Not done yet but so far looking good. Been watching both CL and ES and both look really good through the ACD lens. This was ES today - textbook:
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Last edited by LogicalTrader; October 11th, 2013 at 09:20 PM.
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  #45 (permalink)
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New step in the daily routine

I just realized that having a hypothesis or two to start off the day is a really good idea. I have seen some traders do that and at one point even I used to do it. I have seen @runner do it regularly in @mfbreakout's journal so I am going try and put my thoughts down on paper before the day starts and think of the probable movements that price could make during the next few hours.

Years ago, my geography teacher used to say something that stuck with me - "a man without a plan is like a soldier without a gun". Of course, we made fun of him then. Who knew?

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  #46 (permalink)
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10/14/2013 PMA

Starting this practice from today onward. Plan is to get better at determining scenarios that could play out during the day.

Todays pre market analysis:

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  #47 (permalink)
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Remember, today is a holiday....could be a slow day too?

Edit: Or is it? thought today was Columbus day???


Last edited by xiaosi; October 14th, 2013 at 09:58 AM.
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  #48 (permalink)
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xiaosi View Post
Remember, today is a holiday....could be a slow day too?

Edit: Or is it? thought today was Columbus day???

I dont think so. Market moving well so far. Volume looks right

Edit: I think you are right. It is columbus day. Duh! But CME trading hours are unaffected.


Last edited by LogicalTrader; October 14th, 2013 at 10:36 AM.
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  #49 (permalink)
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Long 101.17

Edit 8:06: Out flat 101.44 for 27 ticks.

Edit 9:30 AM: OR: 101.06 - 101.84. WOR high, EOR low above OR high so interested at those levels. Nothing since the first trade. Sitting on hands for at least OR to break.

Edit 10:38 AM: Short 101.76 for failed A up setup. Took a 12 cent stop. Will re-enter higher.

Edit 10:45 AM: Re-entered short from 101.82. Will look for OR low or at least TL low if not stopped. Could still go higher to WOR high/EOR low. Last attempt short at OR high.

Edit 10:55 AM: Time filter for short runs out in 10 minutes.

Edit 11:00 AM: I am thankful for stops

Edit 11:20 AM: Short 102.50 on euro high fade. Looking for quick targets since A up confirmed.

Edit 11:40 AM: Everytime I go to scratch, it goes a little. Will just let it go. The big money has already exchanged hands. Either it goes a little in my favor and I take a few ticks or last trade of the day for me.

Edit 11:50 AM: Leaving target at 102 (WOR high). Off to lunch.

Edit 12:30 PM: Still holding. Most probably the last trade of the day. Cant lose now. Lets see if we revisit any of the lower areas 102.10, 101.97 and I am definitely out at 101.84.

Edit 12:48 PM: See some buyers trapped above EOR. Hopefully enough for a bit of a push down.

Edit 12:53 PM: Closed position at 102.08. Now it will go to 101.84 . I am done for the day. Hindsight analysis a bit later on.

Hindsight Analysis:
In hindsight, going short today was tough because there was no proper stop area. I could not have confidently said that "if I am short, I am wrong here" until the Euro high was retested. That was a good short.

The first long was another good trade and I got too antsy to get out. I should have given it more time to see if the OR high is revisited before the OR low. But trading 1 contract doesnt give me much to experiment with. These notes will help later I am sure.

Between the first long and the last short, I got hung up with the notion that price could come back and test the lows again and did not encourage any longs. Not that there was a compelling long that I missed but I should not get tunnel vision. Must keep an eye out for 25-30 tick trades that may be there when the OR is wide. The only one that I would say I "missed" was exactly where I got out of my short at 102.08. This was the EOR low and my trojan horse indicator confirmed the trap for a quick long back to highs but I was too relieved to get out of my short that I didnt focus on anything else.

Will keep doing the PMA until I prove that it does not help me during the day. Today's PMA covered all possible scenarios I could think of and eventually it ended up being closest to scenario 3 but the question I will ask at the end of each day is whether it helps me with my execution during the day since my trading revolves around about 10 lines on my chart and my mind's interpretation of the story that the market is telling.

TST wise today ended close to the peak of the sine wave that the p&l has been riding since this combine started but I wont be surprised if this is where it turns around for me as a trader. The shakes are gone, there is no ambiguity about entries, exits are known with enough probability to make all this consistently profitable.

Attached Thumbnails
The Logical Trading Journal-trade_1.png   The Logical Trading Journal-trade_2.png   The Logical Trading Journal-trade_3.png   The Logical Trading Journal-trade_4.png   The Logical Trading Journal-cl_tst.png  

Last edited by LogicalTrader; October 14th, 2013 at 08:02 PM.
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  #50 (permalink)
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10/15/2013 PMA


Pre-Market Analysis:
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What actually happened:
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Last edited by LogicalTrader; October 15th, 2013 at 06:22 PM.
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