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The Logical Trading Journal


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The Logical Trading Journal

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  #201 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received

When the US session starts, I cannot tell if it would be a one way trading day like yesterday and today (so far) or it would be a rotational day. One of the things that can hint at a strong one way trading day is the current range in relation to the ADR. MFB has explained this many times.

It was just by coincidence when I programmed the ADR lines for my charts, that I picked 3, 10 and 30 days and decided to plot the min/max running ADR limits on my charts. I had no idea how well they work on days like these. Surely, many traders see price getting to these levels as a way to lighten up their position or get flat. Like MFB got flat - why did he go flat at 94.43? Because the ADR limit was at 94.42 - simple. We both took the same trade. I was out when the ORL was breached for 34 ticks, he held for another 50+ ticks.

I am not there yet, I cannot see past 30-40 ticks but it is important to note for future reference how important the ADR is to determining exits.

If anyone wants, the ADR can be plotted as follows:
Calculate ADR of 3, 10 and 30 days, call these ADRs 1, 2 and 3
Calculate Current Days High - ADRs, you get ADR Low 1, 2 and 3
Calculate Current Days Low + ADRs, you get ADR High 1, 2 and 3
Plot Min and Max of ADRs Highs and Lows calculated above.
As new highs/lows are made, ADR limits get closer to each other.
Price usually stops at the closest ADR limit.

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  #202 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received

3 trades today so far

1. Long from 94.14 thinking failed A down. Based on my back testing, the biggest hurdle of a failed A trade is either the daily pivot or the Euro OR if either one of them falls between the US OR. Today it was the Euro OR and I respect it a lot. I could have gotten out but got to follow the plan. Exits are only either at the stop or target. Took a loss of 15 cents.

2. Now I was leaning towards the short side and wanted to see if price would stay below US OR for a sufficient amount of time but that didnt happen. Took a short anyways from 94.04. Scratched it when WORL held and it was clear that we are going to chop around in this area for some more time. Forgot to take a picture of this entry. I shut it down in my main combine at this point but decided to still take trades in the spare combine.

3. Now, everything says its an A down and I am not interested in longs at all. Been short from 94.02 for more than an hour now. So far, I have a few ticks in hand but will sit on it till we at least see a new low. I have a theory that suggests 93.60 may be in the hunt. We'll see about that.

EDIT: Couldn't take it anymore. Got out at 93.70. Its hard trading 1 contract to see if price will go 6 more ticks when you already are 34-35 ticks in the money.

In hindsight, I would still be in Trade 2 had I not scratched it. Stop was behind the Euro OR which was never breached.

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  #203 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received

Good read today. Failed A down was crisp and clear. I got out way too early but today was a day to hold all the way to ORH and probably higher. I have a theory that suggests 94.45-94.50 may be in the hunt today.

EDIT: Chart says target is Euro OR low, I meant Euro OR high, WORL.



Also had a preemptive failed A which did not work so P&L wise not a great day but confidence wise an awesome day today.

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  #204 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received

What good is a theory or analysis if not executed upon? Went long 93.82 from pullback to daily pivot . Exit 94.12. I would hold if I am trading more than 1 contract but cannot keep giving back profits when trade is 30+ ticks in the money.


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  #205 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
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LogicalTrader View Post
Good read today. Failed A down was crisp and clear. I got out way too early but today was a day to hold all the way to ORH and probably higher. I have a theory that suggests 94.45-94.50 may be in the hunt today.

EDIT: Chart says target is Euro OR low, I meant Euro OR high, WORL.



Also had a preemptive failed A which did not work so P&L wise not a great day but confidence wise an awesome day today.


You and your buddy mfbreakout give these Monday morning quarterback trades and make it look walk in the park.

Are you guys on drugs to make us believe that you are trading against best traders in the WORLD with STUPID OR lines and a bunch of other lines- just a fickle of your imagination. Do you even know what goes on within

hedge fund universe? SWING trade and you may have 1% chance of success. Giving out free advice. There is nothing FREE in the world. What's the agenda? Sooner or later it will come out.

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  #206 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received


mfbreakout View Post
You and your buddy mfbreakout give these Monday morning quarterback trades and make it look walk in the park.

Are you guys on drugs to make us believe that you are trading against best traders in the WORLD with STUPID OR lines and a bunch of other lines- just a fickle of your imagination. Do you even know what goes on within

hedge fund universe? SWING trade and you may have 1% chance of success. Giving out free advice. There is nothing FREE in the world. What's the agenda? Sooner or later it will come out.

LOL. Thanks for you help MFB.

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  #207 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received

CL has been difficult for me today. I attempted (prematurely) a failed A down long which didnt work and that is fine. I recognized it and got out without hesitation. No more CL trades until the OR is set today.

Meanwhile, I have signed up for another combine to trade ACD on ES. I am only testing it today in my spare combine. Took 2 trades today:

1. Short from 1830.50 from MP high stopped me to the tick and went to my target at 1826. No big deal.
2. Failed A setup and went long from 1826.50. Holding it for at least ORH at 1832.50. Currently it is stalled at the MP high resistance again at 31.25. I am 4+ points in the money but will hold for another 2-3 points. I think if I was trading my real combine, I would get out with 4 - 4.5 points since the minimum R:R has been achieved but staying in to gain more screen time with ES moves. Been a while since I traded ES.

EDIT: Now, thats a big confidence boost. Exited for 6 points at 32.50 ORH. ORL to ORH ride. Still interested in seeing 1836 hit.

EDIT2 (End of Session): Could have taken failed A down twice. 1826 area held again towards the end of the session and rallied back to ORH to produce a 0 delta day.


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  #208 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received

T4 needs to be improved. In order to trade from the DOM, a trader should be able to click on any price to get a long (or short) order sent to the market and the platform should decide whether it is a market order or limit order. I missed it in the process of clicking 2 buttons. It never came back to 92.96-98. This is why I like TradeStation, it doesnt do everything, but whatever it does, does it really well.


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  #209 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received

I think I am sitting out the rest of the CL session. Had I taken the last trade, I would be sitting out and previously been burned taking trades after having missed the prime setup.

Meanwhile, long ES again from 1831 from pullback to DP, MP. Targeting minimum 35-36.50 area. Will bring stop to par if price makes it to 33.25.

EDIT: Went to 34.25. Exit at par.


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  #210 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received

Got a better read today in CL. I almost shorted 92.80 when we popped above the Euro OR high but couldn't figure out where my stop would be so let it go.

Once the OR formed, it was pretty clear that it was going to be a grinding type of a day like yesterday. The only entry per plan was the pullback to ORL after price spent more than 20-25 minutes below it. Got short 92.47. Target was at 92.07 - 1 tick above the low from 11/27/2013. Took about an hour but price did get to the target.

Since the beginning of the year, except for 1 day, we have had all down days. All gains since 11/27 wiped out in 6 days. I am glad I day trade . Imagine holding positions longer term - I would probably die of high blood pressure before I go broke . I am pretty sure that longer term traders say the same thing about day traders


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  #211 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received

Cannot thank the traders at futures.io (formerly BMT) enough - especially MFB and traders that contribute on his thread. All those gold nuggets that are available here are for anyone to pick up.

2K bar on 1 min chart got me short at 93.27 for a failed A up. I was aware that pit open can be unpredictable so got out a bit early at 92.84 than my planned targets at developing OR low at 92.58 (which just got hit) or Euro OR high at 92.73. Regardless, happy with 43 ticks and done for the day.


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  #212 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received

5 days gone and 5 more days to go in the new CL combine that started Monday. A little less than half way from the profit target. I know I have been sandbagging. Next week, I will push the pedal a bit harder - hit my marks a bit better.

For some reason, its different this time. Stress levels are lower. Somehow I know I have made it past the normal hurdles. Going back through the last 5 days, on most days, I have taken profits early - its part of the plan so not complaining. Its just that I know the p&l could have been 20-30% more than what it has been which is what I will go for next week. Put in 2 days in the ES combine and have to tweak the execution a bit but its the same recipe no matter what market it is - they all need the 3 Ps - patience, patience and more patience.


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  #213 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received

Got the failed A down. So many things lined up that it was impossible to miss this one. Couldnt have setup better. I didnt want to push it so got out at the first logical target. I may not be done today. Plan is to keep an opportunistic eye out. There might be more opportunities today.

EDIT: 10:20 AM: Done for the day. GSCI is probably still rolling over today being its last day and there is very little edge now (for me). So back tomorrow.


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  #214 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received

Read it correctly today but failed to execute properly. The read this AM was long. As price pulled back to euro OR high, it was confirmed. Got long at 92.18 and sat in it for 10 minutes watching the back and forth. Then decided to scratch it and not even a few seconds later, it took off. Just one of those days when you deviate from your focus a little bit. Thinking is not allowed and yet we think and make up these scenarios that the market could possibly be looking to do. Stuff happens, got to move on. Will keep an opportunistic eye out but not going to force anything.


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  #215 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received

The purpose of a trading journal is to log all trades, market conditions, thought process in relation to one's trading plan. If one cannot be true to his journal, the journal loses its meaning.

I have found myself not being honest to my journal over here at futures.io (formerly BMT). There are various reasons but whatever they are, I dont think I can overcome them and maintain a public journal.

Initially I benefited a lot from writing here every day and I am thankful for that. But it is time I end my journal here and maintain it privately where I can be completely honest about every decision I make on a trade by trade basis. So this is the end of The Logical Trading Journal at futures.io (formerly BMT). Going forward, I am maintaining my journal in a private blog.

For anyone interested, I was not able to clear the combine profit target for CL. ES combine still has a few days to go but that also looks to be going the same way. I will most likely roll them both forward and keep trying until I get funded. Its only a matter of time. That much I know.

When I have anything meaningful to contribute, I will post in @mfbreakout's thread. Until then, wish you all good luck and profitable trading.

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  #216 (permalink)
 budfox 
Toronto
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra
Broker: MB
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 313 since Jun 2013

HI Logical Trader,

I was wondering if you use the number line? I find it really useful.

Do you include those small holidays where the market closes at 13h00?

or just the regular trading days?

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  #217 (permalink)
 deltason 
Memphis, Tennessee
 
Experience: None
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, EUR/USD
 
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Posts: 133 since Jul 2009
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I'm sorry I missed following your journal until it was too late. I'm guessing the dots on your charts are indicating a divergence of the histogram (cumulative delta?) at the bottom? Either way I wish you all the best.

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  #218 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received


budfox View Post
HI Logical Trader,

I was wondering if you use the number line? I find it really useful.

Do you include those small holidays where the market closes at 13h00?

or just the regular trading days?

Not yet budfox. The number line is the hardest to program I have found. I am working on it but what I have so far works so the number line is a bit on the back burner. But it is a beautiful concept and keeps you on the right side of the market so if you have found a way, then good for you.

The book does not specifically mention (I dont recall at least) what to do regarding the number line for half trading days but it does take into account any trading day for the plus/minus days concept in the 30 day trading cycle so if I were to consider it in my plan, then I would take into account the number for days like tomorrow.

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  #219 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received


deltason View Post
I'm sorry I missed following your journal until it was too late. I'm guessing the dots on your charts are indicating a divergence of the histogram (cumulative delta?) at the bottom? Either way I wish you all the best.

Thanks deltason.

The dots were just an experiment. I dont even look at them now. You can probably see how they have changed from being a cluster to being single dots to lately being accompanied with smaller dots. But you are right, they were supposed to show divergence in cumulative delta.

I tried to use it as confirmation for my trades but it has hurt more than helped. I have since found volume (plain old volume) to be a better confirmation thanks to MFB and Balanar. I pay attention to any high volume 1 minute bar at ACD levels and what price does immediately after that bar. Sometimes high volume results in a further move (breakout) or it results in a retrace but price action following high volume bars is easier to read. Delta, on the other hand, isnt so helpful because you can never tell how much is enough. See image below for example of PA on 01/17, I paint the bars a different color when higher than usual volume shows up and then see what price does after those bars.

Also, all this is still just theory at this time and means nothing unless used profitably in a consistent manner. When I get funded and am trading consistently well, I will post here what works best as a confirmation tool. Thanks.


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  #220 (permalink)
 budfox 
Toronto
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra
Broker: MB
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 313 since Jun 2013

I found the plus/minus days don't really work out properly (unless I did not, program the Number Line correctly).

Its not hard....I just plot it in excel.

Did you get funded yet?



LogicalTrader View Post
Not yet budfox. The number line is the hardest to program I have found. I am working on it but what I have so far works so the number line is a bit on the back burner. But it is a beautiful concept and keeps you on the right side of the market so if you have found a way, then good for you.

The book does not specifically mention (I dont recall at least) what to do regarding the number line for half trading days but it does take into account any trading day for the plus/minus days concept in the 30 day trading cycle so if I were to consider it in my plan, then I would take into account the number for days like tomorrow.


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  #221 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received


budfox View Post
I found the plus/minus days don't really work out properly (unless I did not, program the Number Line correctly).

Its not hard....I just plot it in excel.

Did you get funded yet?

Not yet. Still trying.

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