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The Logical Trading Journal
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The Logical Trading Journal

  #201 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
Houston, TX
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TradeStation
Broker/Data: TradeStation
Favorite Futures: CL
 
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Importance of ADR

When the US session starts, I cannot tell if it would be a one way trading day like yesterday and today (so far) or it would be a rotational day. One of the things that can hint at a strong one way trading day is the current range in relation to the ADR. MFB has explained this many times.

It was just by coincidence when I programmed the ADR lines for my charts, that I picked 3, 10 and 30 days and decided to plot the min/max running ADR limits on my charts. I had no idea how well they work on days like these. Surely, many traders see price getting to these levels as a way to lighten up their position or get flat. Like MFB got flat - why did he go flat at 94.43? Because the ADR limit was at 94.42 - simple. We both took the same trade. I was out when the ORL was breached for 34 ticks, he held for another 50+ ticks.

I am not there yet, I cannot see past 30-40 ticks but it is important to note for future reference how important the ADR is to determining exits.

If anyone wants, the ADR can be plotted as follows:
Calculate ADR of 3, 10 and 30 days, call these ADRs 1, 2 and 3
Calculate Current Days High - ADRs, you get ADR Low 1, 2 and 3
Calculate Current Days Low + ADRs, you get ADR High 1, 2 and 3
Plot Min and Max of ADRs Highs and Lows calculated above.
As new highs/lows are made, ADR limits get closer to each other.
Price usually stops at the closest ADR limit.
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Last edited by LogicalTrader; January 3rd, 2014 at 01:14 PM. Reason: Added calculation method.
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  #202 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
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Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TradeStation
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Choppy day today

3 trades today so far

1. Long from 94.14 thinking failed A down. Based on my back testing, the biggest hurdle of a failed A trade is either the daily pivot or the Euro OR if either one of them falls between the US OR. Today it was the Euro OR and I respect it a lot. I could have gotten out but got to follow the plan. Exits are only either at the stop or target. Took a loss of 15 cents.

2. Now I was leaning towards the short side and wanted to see if price would stay below US OR for a sufficient amount of time but that didnt happen. Took a short anyways from 94.04. Scratched it when WORL held and it was clear that we are going to chop around in this area for some more time. Forgot to take a picture of this entry. I shut it down in my main combine at this point but decided to still take trades in the spare combine.

3. Now, everything says its an A down and I am not interested in longs at all. Been short from 94.02 for more than an hour now. So far, I have a few ticks in hand but will sit on it till we at least see a new low. I have a theory that suggests 93.60 may be in the hunt. We'll see about that.

EDIT: Couldn't take it anymore. Got out at 93.70. Its hard trading 1 contract to see if price will go 6 more ticks when you already are 34-35 ticks in the money.

In hindsight, I would still be in Trade 2 had I not scratched it. Stop was behind the Euro OR which was never breached.

Attached Thumbnails
The Logical Trading Journal-long_failed_a_down.png   The Logical Trading Journal-short_a_down.png  

Last edited by LogicalTrader; January 6th, 2014 at 12:45 PM. Reason: Trade 3 exit.
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  #203 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
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Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TradeStation
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Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
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Failed A down


Good read today. Failed A down was crisp and clear. I got out way too early but today was a day to hold all the way to ORH and probably higher. I have a theory that suggests 94.45-94.50 may be in the hunt today.

EDIT: Chart says target is Euro OR low, I meant Euro OR high, WORL.

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Also had a preemptive failed A which did not work so P&L wise not a great day but confidence wise an awesome day today.


Last edited by LogicalTrader; January 7th, 2014 at 11:54 AM.
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  #204 (permalink)
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Theory and Execution

What good is a theory or analysis if not executed upon? Went long 93.82 from pullback to daily pivot . Exit 94.12. I would hold if I am trading more than 1 contract but cannot keep giving back profits when trade is 30+ ticks in the money.

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  #205 (permalink)
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day trading oil futures without indicators


LogicalTrader View Post
Good read today. Failed A down was crisp and clear. I got out way too early but today was a day to hold all the way to ORH and probably higher. I have a theory that suggests 94.45-94.50 may be in the hunt today.

EDIT: Chart says target is Euro OR low, I meant Euro OR high, WORL.

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Also had a preemptive failed A which did not work so P&L wise not a great day but confidence wise an awesome day today.


You and your buddy mfbreakout give these Monday morning quarterback trades and make it look walk in the park.

Are you guys on drugs to make us believe that you are trading against best traders in the WORLD with STUPID OR lines and a bunch of other lines- just a fickle of your imagination. Do you even know what goes on within

hedge fund universe? SWING trade and you may have 1% chance of success. Giving out free advice. There is nothing FREE in the world. What's the agenda? Sooner or later it will come out.


Last edited by mfbreakout; January 7th, 2014 at 01:40 PM.
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  #206 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
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mfbreakout View Post
You and your buddy mfbreakout give these Monday morning quarterback trades and make it look walk in the park.

Are you guys on drugs to make us believe that you are trading against best traders in the WORLD with STUPID OR lines and a bunch of other lines- just a fickle of your imagination. Do you even know what goes on within

hedge fund universe? SWING trade and you may have 1% chance of success. Giving out free advice. There is nothing FREE in the world. What's the agenda? Sooner or later it will come out.

LOL. Thanks for you help MFB.

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  #207 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
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Platform: TradeStation
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Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
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Difficult day today

CL has been difficult for me today. I attempted (prematurely) a failed A down long which didnt work and that is fine. I recognized it and got out without hesitation. No more CL trades until the OR is set today.

Meanwhile, I have signed up for another combine to trade ACD on ES. I am only testing it today in my spare combine. Took 2 trades today:

1. Short from 1830.50 from MP high stopped me to the tick and went to my target at 1826. No big deal.
2. Failed A setup and went long from 1826.50. Holding it for at least ORH at 1832.50. Currently it is stalled at the MP high resistance again at 31.25. I am 4+ points in the money but will hold for another 2-3 points. I think if I was trading my real combine, I would get out with 4 - 4.5 points since the minimum R:R has been achieved but staying in to gain more screen time with ES moves. Been a while since I traded ES.

EDIT: Now, thats a big confidence boost. Exited for 6 points at 32.50 ORH. ORL to ORH ride. Still interested in seeing 1836 hit.

EDIT2 (End of Session): Could have taken failed A down twice. 1826 area held again towards the end of the session and rallied back to ORH to produce a 0 delta day.

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Last edited by LogicalTrader; January 8th, 2014 at 05:03 PM. Reason: ES Exit
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  #208 (permalink)
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Missed Failed A down

T4 needs to be improved. In order to trade from the DOM, a trader should be able to click on any price to get a long (or short) order sent to the market and the platform should decide whether it is a market order or limit order. I missed it in the process of clicking 2 buttons. It never came back to 92.96-98. This is why I like TradeStation, it doesnt do everything, but whatever it does, does it really well.

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  #209 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
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Platform: TradeStation
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Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
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Meanwhile...

I think I am sitting out the rest of the CL session. Had I taken the last trade, I would be sitting out and previously been burned taking trades after having missed the prime setup.

Meanwhile, long ES again from 1831 from pullback to DP, MP. Targeting minimum 35-36.50 area. Will bring stop to par if price makes it to 33.25.

EDIT: Went to 34.25. Exit at par.

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Last edited by LogicalTrader; January 8th, 2014 at 01:39 PM. Reason: Exit
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  #210 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
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A down all the way


Got a better read today in CL. I almost shorted 92.80 when we popped above the Euro OR high but couldn't figure out where my stop would be so let it go.

Once the OR formed, it was pretty clear that it was going to be a grinding type of a day like yesterday. The only entry per plan was the pullback to ORL after price spent more than 20-25 minutes below it. Got short 92.47. Target was at 92.07 - 1 tick above the low from 11/27/2013. Took about an hour but price did get to the target.

Since the beginning of the year, except for 1 day, we have had all down days. All gains since 11/27 wiped out in 6 days. I am glad I day trade . Imagine holding positions longer term - I would probably die of high blood pressure before I go broke . I am pretty sure that longer term traders say the same thing about day traders

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