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The Logical Trading Journal
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The Logical Trading Journal

  #191 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
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LTP Status

LTP account took a hit today. Good news is that I was mistaken in thinking that I had only 10 trading days to achieve the target. TST clarified that I can trade for as many days as I want (minimum 10) to achieve the profit target while keeping the winning day percentage at or above 50. So I probably have until the end of this week to hit the profit goal because after that the action will die out because of the holidays. So still in the hunt for funding.

Hoping for some good action tomorrow and Wed.

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  #192 (permalink)
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LogicalTrader View Post
Want to note in my journal the bigger than usual delta divergence today since the open in WTI. Selling is being heavily absorbed today in WTI while Brent price behavior is consistent with delta

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NOTE: Charts have moved over to the Feb contract so 12/09-12/10 prices have been adjusted by todays closing F-G spread

I had posted the above exactly 1 week earlier noticing unusual delta divergence and this is what had happened following the session:

12/09 - 12/10
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One week later, same behavior. But in the opposite direction. Extensive absorption of buying. Do we see a move down overnight, accelerating in the Euro session and going through the WOR?

12/16/2013
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  #193 (permalink)
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No trades today yet


0 trades so far. Just dont feel anything. There were scalps that would have worked for 15-25 ticks in hindsight. Still sitting on the sidelines and unless something compelling shows up, probably done for the day.

The shoulda, coulda, wouldas:
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  #194 (permalink)
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Will have to be better to get funded

Took 2 trades later in the session today. Nothing wrong with them. Just didnt work out.

Just got a call from TST and found out that my LTP account is done. I had to maintain a winning day ratio of 50% or better and this is enforced after 10 trading days.

It does not matter which LTP rule kept me from getting funded this time around. Bottom line is that I either have to be at my game 100% or I cannot play. I cannot be away during peak trading times, miss my bread and butter trades, and expect to see consistent results. All of which changes in Jan so looking forward to it.

On the bright side, my vacation just started earlier than expected

Wish everyone here Happy Holidays!

See you in 2014.

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  #195 (permalink)
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Practicing this week

I cannot practice using a replay feature which is a big disadvantage. But these past days, I spent a lot of time looking at historical charts to further solidify what exactly I should be looking at as the opportunities present themselves. Good to see that I am no longer looking for or programming "new stuff" to add to my trading. Instead, I am cutting out what I dont want to see.

Wanted to quote what @GaryD wrote in another journal that made a lot of sense to me:

GaryD View Post
Relaxing, enjoying life, not caring so much about the trade and focusing more on honing the method. Let the result be feedback, and adjust your approach accordingly.

You don't need to be good at everything in trading. In fact, just being good at one thing, and having the patience and the confidence to only do that one thing over and over, but only when the market says to, not when you say it should happen because you want money or you are bored, can be everything you need to succeed.

Made me think, what is that one thing that I want to be really good at. The answer was quite clear. It has to be a failed A trade. I already am good at this setup so I am going to focus only on this one thing and do it over and over again. I would love to be bored trading only failed A's.

So, I thought I would practice this week before I start the combine next week for another attempt at getting funded.

Day started with everything pointing lower. Below DP, WOR and Euro OR. We had also cracked into the 3DP range and bounced up from its low.

Got short at 99.95 when the failed A up presented itself but got stopped out to the tick at 100.10. In hindsight, should have thought that my stop was exactly at the 3DP high. No big deal. Thats why this is practice week.

Got short again from 99.88. Saw the failed A down setup at 99.70 but didnt get out and held it during the retracement up to 99.90ish because of the strong bearish bias. We have an A down now and if I could I would still be holding but got out at ADR limits at 99.51 for 37 ticks.

That ends todays practice session for me.

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  #196 (permalink)
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A lot to be thankful for in 2013

As it is common for any professional to go through a period of intensive study before he/she can start practicing what they learnt and make a living from it like a 3-4 year undergraduate/graduate course, similarly, over the past 4 years, I believe that I have been studying for proficiency in day trading.

As with any profession, we never stop learning but as 2013 comes to an end, I feel I have graduated to a level where my education has made me competent enough to get me started with earning a living from it.

The curriculum of my 4 year course is outlined below and I am thankful to these educators:

Paid Education:

2009
  • OTA, Houston - learnt candlestick patterns and got introduced to TradeStation.

2010
  • Rockwell Trading - learnt about range bars and a potential scalping method that can be automated
  • TopDogTrading - Dont actually remember what I learnt.
  • Better indicators by Barry Taylor - learnt how to identify professional vs amateur activity, importance of divergences

2011
  • EMiniAcademy - learnt how to trade moving averages, regression lines
  • Simple Automatic Trading - learnt about automated trading strategies.
  • Puretick - learnt how to use the NYSE tick, moving averages, double tops/bottoms
  • Emini Trading Strategies - learnt about a moving average system, identifying chop zones and staying away from them

2012
  • OrderFlowEdge - learnt about order flow techniques, identifying intraday POCs etc
  • Strategic Day Trading - learnt about trading trendlines, breakouts, fibs etc, automation with NinjaTrader
  • Back To The Future Trading - learnt how past data can be mined to predict future moves, learnt about trading using ATR strategies
  • Futures FX - learnt about reading footprints, scalping techniques
  • CoiledMarkets - learnt how to identify congestion and trade breakouts, learnt importance of fib extensions, using the open range as a roadmap for the day
  • Major subjects (Dissertation)
    • L2ST - - learnt volume profiling techniques, developing probable trading scenarios before putting on a trade, journaling/record keeping techniques, psychological readiness techniques
    • Jigsaw - learnt more about order flow techniques, herd mentality etc
    • NoBSDayTrading, John Grady - learnt even more about order flow techniques

Free Education:

2013 - The year of internship.
  • TopStepTrader - Learnt the value of discipline, patience and the importance of consistency required for day trading
  • MFBREAKOUT - Learnt how to apply Mark Fisher's ACD method, importance of time, ADR and Asian/Euro session ranges.

I am sure I am forgetting to mention some educators in the list above but I am still grateful to them.

As with any undergraduate/graduate course, we learn many many things but we do not necessarily use all of them on the job. Similarly, I consider that all of the above has contributed to my trading but I am not going to use all of it.


Dr. Wayne Dyer
With everything that has happened to you, you can either feel sorry for yourself or treat what has happened as a gift. Everything is either an opportunity to grow or an obstacle to keep you from growing. You get to choose.

I choose to believe these are gifts and I am thankful to have received them.

I am confident I will be a profitable trader in 2014.

Wish everyone at futures.io (formerly BMT) a wonderful new years eve and a peaceful and successful new year ahead!


Last edited by LogicalTrader; December 31st, 2013 at 06:52 PM. Reason: forgot CoiledMarkets
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  #197 (permalink)
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LogicalTrader View Post
Monthly pivot range for Dec has been established:
MP High: 93.65
MP Low: 93.32

ACD methodology describes the monthly pivot range as a significant range for the rest of the month. Once price moves above or below the range, it tends to stay that way for the rest of the month.

After being below the monthly pivot since mid-October, today price is above December's range for the first time. Is it going to stay that way?

Take a look at the chart for 2013. 8 out of 11 months, once price moved away from the range, it did not break the monthly pivot for the rest of the month after moving above or below.

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A close above 93.65 or below 93.32 is significant tomorrow and I will be watching this range and how price reacts here. First/Second day of the month has set the tone for the rest of the month on several occasions in 2013

What happened?

THIS:

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Tomorrow's trading will define the MP range for January and on Jan 10th we will know the pivot range that will be statistically important for the first half of 2014.

NOTE: The price difference in the 2 images is because past data has been backadjusted according to the prompt month.


Last edited by LogicalTrader; January 1st, 2014 at 07:19 PM. Reason: Added note.
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  #198 (permalink)
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First day of Month

First couple of days in the month have statistically been volatile trend changers so today is not a surprise. I was in no mood to counter trade this by looking for a failed A. Instead on an A down confirmed, a pullback to ORL is as textbook as it can be. There was no need to get any sort of order flow confirmation, although there was plenty of that too.

Short 96.83 from pullback to ORL. Exited at mid-December support area of 96.50 for 33 ticks. That was my one good trade for the day.

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  #199 (permalink)
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Long Term Pivots

January Monthly Pivot Range has been established

Pivot high: 97.16
Pivot Low: 96.01

It will be interesting to see tomorrow's action with EIA report being released tomorrow at 10 AM central and how price reacts at these levels.

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  #200 (permalink)
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Failed A up Short


Textbook setup again. Failed A up from pullback to Euro ORL. Short from 95.29, exit 94.95. I am not worried about not holding for bigger targets. I was aware of the probability of the move continuing further but my primary goal is to be consistently profitable and it does not matter how much profit as long as I maintain my minimum risk reward ratio.

This was today's one good trade of the day. Glad I followed the plan.

NOTE: In Today's case, the failed A up determination was a preemptive attempt to speculate what the ORH will be. Usually, it is not necessary to wait until 8:15 or in today's case, 10:15 (today being inventories day) to figure out what the ORH or ORL is. Most failed A's start between 7:45 and 8:15 AM based upon backtesting.

2nd NOTE: How did I determine that this move was probably not over. Other than the obvious ACD context, when the low was broken at 95.05 by 3 ticks, the offer just hung over there at 95.04-95.05 and absorbed a bunch of buy orders. It never went bid at 95.05. They were determined to take it down. Otherwise, it would be a flushout or some people call it a volume climax where we see a bunch of sell orders hit the market - way more than normal and then price snaps back above the break point.

New combine and bid for funding starts Monday. Good to end the week this way.

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Last edited by LogicalTrader; January 3rd, 2014 at 11:50 AM. Reason: Added notes.
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