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The Logical Trading Journal


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The Logical Trading Journal

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  #101 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
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Balanar View Post
@iNeo you make a great job here.

Maybe I am wrong with my thoughts, but as a reader I see the following "problem".

I think many traders see themselves in your words.

What I see is, that you pulled your stop to breakeven too fast.

I know this problem very well, but it is just the fear that you have.

The fear to get a loss.

Check your last trades where you got stopped out on breakeven and check if it was your fear that told you to pull the stop to breakeven.

Look @mfbreakout, have you ever seen him pulling the stop to breakeven after a couple of minutes? I think he is perfect in what he is doing. Maybe he is so kind and tells us something about his stop loss management.

You are right. It is fear of losing that causes that. If I analyze the trades that worked without me because of this reason and those that would have actually stopped me out for a full loss, I know the winners would make way more ticks than the losers lose. I am going to get away from this, very soon.

MFB does not move his stop. I remember from his posts.

Thanks for your support.

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  #102 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received

I will be making a few changes going forward based on advice from one of the greatest on futures.io (formerly BMT). I am thankful for that.

Changes related to Trade identification and execution:
  • No more live entries of every action, thought, observation etc in the journal. I will only update during lulls in the market.
  • I will not trade the opening few minutes until price settles down.
  • I will identify beforehand if my trade is a trend trade or counter trend (not in the traditional sense but per ACD). I will be aggressive moving my stop to breakeven only if its a counter trend trade (when trading a box) otherwise I will leave it alone
  • If stopped out of a trade, I will not reattempt the setup no matter what the conditions are at that time. Instead, I will observe and learn.
  • I will use orderflow as an entry/exit confirmation only for countertrend trades. For trend trades, I will rely mostly on the 5 minute chart and ACD principles.
  • Regardless of trend or counter trend trade setup, I will wait for price to confirm via consolidation and other factors before taking the trade. I will not be in a rush to enter even if that means the trade will have a wider stop.
  • I will not worry about missing a trade. If it does not fall in these criteria and I miss it, I will say "Next!".
  • I will keep targets reasonable in relation to the following:
    • Time of the Day
    • Current day's range in relation to the ATR
    • Known ACD levels and non-ACD levels

Changes related to preparation:
  • I will practice by trading at least 7-10 days worth of past trading action using either Ninja or TOS EVERY WEEK. This is the single most important focal point going forward.
  • I will keep a journal/video of these practice sessions and identify common patterns for real time application

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  #103 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
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Missed short from 93.65 area. Everything had lined up over there.

8:25: Went long from 93.16 area with a 20 tick stop after enough consolidation. After almost 45 minutes, algo spike took out the stop. In hindsight, I should have taken a time stop. I had many opportunities to scratch but this is day 1 after many changes and I missed this simple filter - the time filter. No big deal. Now waiting for 10:15 until OR forms.

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  #104 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
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iNeo View Post
Missed short from 93.65 area. Everything had lined up over there.

8:25: Went long from 93.16 area with a 20 tick stop after enough consolidation. After almost 45 minutes, algo spike took out the stop. In hindsight, I should have taken a time stop. I had many opportunities to scratch but this is day 1 after many changes and I missed this simple filter - the time filter. No big deal. Now waiting for 10:15 until OR forms.

DOE report is at 11 am.

You need to be aware of relevant times. After late release due to holiday, DOE report comes out 11 am eastern time.

10.15 is O.K unless you meant your time zone.


There is no need to have 45 minutes hold time when ADX is at highs , giving mixed signal etc.

Correct idea but wrong day , time and execution.

Yesterday was the day to hold.

Today hold time may come later.

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  #105 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
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mfbreakout View Post
DOE report is at 11 am.

You need to be aware of relevant times. After late release due to holiday, DOE report comes out 11 am eastern time.

10.15 is O.K unless you meant your time zone.


There is no need to have 45 minutes hold time when ADX is at highs , giving mixed signal etc.

Correct idea wrong day , time and execution.

Yesterday was the day to hold.

Today time may come which remains to be seen.

Thanks MFB. I meant 10:15 central.

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  #106 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received

10:26: Falied A down setup. Could not possibly have traded the 100+ tick run up from 92.51. So waited for pullback. Got long from 93.15 after pullback to 93.10. Took the long based on orderflow and 93.10 was prior support today, but made the mistake of getting too aggressive with the stop again. Got stopped out and market pulled away and I did not want to chase it. Eventually price topped out at around 93.57 and started pulling back.

10:43: Waited for market to pullback some more. Same premise of failed A down. Got orderflow confirmation and went long 93.36. Saw that shorts were trapped and held it till 93.76 for 40 ticks. I was almost certain we would see 93.88 but I am not allowed to think, I had to trade what I saw and 93.76 area was the area to get out.

Entry Chart:


I am done for the day. This was my one good trade of the day. No good will come from staring at charts now. I am off to practice a random day from the past.

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  #107 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
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Got in late today. Not feeling too good.

8:30: Got long from 94.22. 94.20 was previous resistance. Didnt give it time to settle down so wasnt a good entry. Took a 15 tick stop. It is a failed A down after all.
9:00-9:51: Scalped a couple and sitting at breakeven now. Watching paint dry.

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  #108 (permalink)
 Balanar 
Germany
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: NTB / Continuum
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Sometimes it is better not to trade!


I sit on hands.

Much patience is required!

Do not force anything, let the setup come to you.

This box is too tight.

No setups available = no trades!

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  #109 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
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It is hard to realize the power of journaling without experiencing it first hand. I am glad I got motivated by the 70% discount being offered by TST and started a journal here at futures.io (formerly BMT).

All of this week, I have been wondering where I have gone wrong since clearing the TST combine. What happened? Why am I struggling now when I was doing much better before?

The answer was in this journal.

My primary method of trading changed since I started this journal - I switched from being a breakout trader to an ACD trader. This happened midway during my winning TST combine so even though this changed, I still managed to clear the combine.

Ever since then, I have been constantly trying to refine my method and as it has been pointed out countless number of times by many good traders, THIS was what broke it and my confidence in the process. I changed too much.

I realized this when I was reflecting upon my chat with @mfbreakout and when he asked - "How can I help you?". I didnt have a good answer. Its pretty clear that I had no idea what was wrong with my trading. I knew I did not need spoon feeding on the trading method - what I have picked up from his journal works just fine. I feel that I just wasted his time after he was so generous for having spent almost an hour with me on skype.

So after a lot of analysis and reflection and reading my own journal multiple times, I realized that when I cleared the combine, for those few days, the setup that I had was the best so far. The difference between then and now is that I have moved away from the slower charts I was using to much faster charts for my execution and overall. For whatever reason, I am watching the orderflow every time regardless of where price is in relation to the trading levels. Most of my trades have been random - pulled out of thin air - manufactured on the fly - whatever one may want to call it and I always try to look for a reason to justify every such trade.

Being a programmer, I wrote a beautiful piece of code that identifies temporary imbalance in the order flow and 9 out of 10 times, price moves accordingly - as the imbalance suggested. The problem came when I started looking at this imbalance at the micro level and taking trades at random levels. A month ago or so ago, when I first wrote this and used it with slower charts, it worked just fine when used at known levels. It helped me clear the combine.

So, all this reveals that I need to do the following:
  1. Go back to the slower charts - 5 min primarily.
  2. Take only the bread and butter trades - nothing in between. Failed As and retest of the 3 sessions are the ones to look for primarily. In fact, I am going to try my best to take only these. I don't want to etch this in stone because that screws with my mind in a different way.
  3. Do not change anything going forward.

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  #110 (permalink)
 iqgod 
Market Wizard
Mumbai, India
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: ChartNexus
Trading: Stocks, Commodities, Futures
 
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iNeo View Post
It is hard to realize the power of journaling without experiencing it first hand....



The difference between then and now is that I have moved away from the slower charts I was using to much faster charts for my execution and overall. For whatever reason, I am watching the orderflow every time regardless of where price is in relation to the trading levels. Most of my trades have been random - pulled out of thin air - manufactured on the fly - whatever one may want to call it and I always try to look for a reason to justify every such trade.

....A month ago or so ago, when I first wrote this and used it with slower charts, it worked just fine when used at known levels. It helped me clear the combine.

I have gone through this phase and had even come close to clearing a combine using faster charts, more trades (which tended to be random than anything else).

I too realized this because I had been constantly journalling my efforts.

The way I overcame it is the same as your plan:

I kept on doing what worked for me, did it without caring about the outcomes, focusing on the process of
trading well" i.e. taking trades when they set themselves up and taking my ego out of the equation by taking losses once trade premise proved wrong and not playing around with targets once in a trade or trade size when entering.

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  #111 (permalink)
 Raj1 
Toronto
 
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iNeo View Post
It is hard to realize the power of journaling without experiencing it first hand. I am glad I got motivated by the 70% discount being offered by TST and started a journal here at futures.io (formerly BMT).

All of this week, I have been wondering where I have gone wrong since clearing the TST combine. What happened? Why am I struggling now when I was doing much better before?

The answer was in this journal.

My primary method of trading changed since I started this journal - I switched from being a breakout trader to an ACD trader. This happened midway during my winning TST combine so even though this changed, I still managed to clear the combine.

Ever since then, I have been constantly trying to refine my method and as it has been pointed out countless number of times by many good traders, THIS was what broke it and my confidence in the process. I changed too much.

I realized this when I was reflecting upon my chat with @mfbreakout and when he asked - "How can I help you?". I didnt have a good answer. Its pretty clear that I had no idea what was wrong with my trading. I knew I did not need spoon feeding on the trading method - what I have picked up from his journal works just fine. I feel that I just wasted his time after he was so generous for having spent almost an hour with me on skype.

So after a lot of analysis and reflection and reading my own journal multiple times, I realized that when I cleared the combine, for those few days, the setup that I had was the best so far. The difference between then and now is that I have moved away from the slower charts I was using to much faster charts for my execution and overall. For whatever reason, I am watching the orderflow every time regardless of where price is in relation to the trading levels. Most of my trades have been random - pulled out of thin air - manufactured on the fly - whatever one may want to call it and I always try to look for a reason to justify every such trade.

Being a programmer, I wrote a beautiful piece of code that identifies temporary imbalance in the order flow and 9 out of 10 times, price moves accordingly - as the imbalance suggested. The problem came when I started looking at this imbalance at the micro level and taking trades at random levels. A month ago or so ago, when I first wrote this and used it with slower charts, it worked just fine when used at known levels. It helped me clear the combine.

So, all this reveals that I need to do the following:
  1. Go back to the slower charts - 5 min primarily.
  2. Take only the bread and butter trades - nothing in between. Failed As and retest of the 3 sessions are the ones to look for primarily. In fact, I am going to try my best to take only these. I don't want to etch this in stone because that screws with my mind in a different way.
  3. Do not change anything going forward.

Hi
Can you post one of your chart to show how you confirm a pullback entry using order flow?

Thanks

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  #112 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
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Raj1 View Post
Hi
Can you post one of your chart to show how you confirm a pullback entry using order flow?

Thanks

I have posted this before in response to someone else's question. You can read it here:

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  #113 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received

Someone asked for my cumulative delta code I use in TradeStation so making it available here.

 
Code
Inputs:
	PitOpen(800),
	PitClose(1330),
	ResetAtPitOpen(False),
	ResetAtPitClose(False),
	PlotZeroLine(False),
	UpColor(Green),
	DownColor(Red);
	
Vars:
	BADelta(0),
	UpVolume(0),
	DownVolume(0),
	CumDelta(0),
	MyOpen(0),
	MyClose(0),
	BarColor(0),
	Intrabarpersist MyBarNumber(-1);
	
	If ((Time >= PitOpen And Time[1] < PitOpen And ResetAtPitOpen)
		Or (Time >= PitClose And Time[1] < PitClose And ResetAtPitClose)) then
	Begin
		CumDelta = 0;
	End;

	UpVolume = Upticks;
	DownVolume = Downticks;
	BADelta = Upticks - Downticks;
	
	// Previous bar cumulative delta is current open
	MyOpen = CumDelta;

	// Now add current bar delta to cumulative delta
	CumDelta = CumDelta + BADelta;

	// Current bar close is previous bar cumulative delta + current bar delta
	MyClose = CumDelta;
	
	If (MyOpen > MyClose) then
		BarColor = DownColor
	Else
		BarColor = UpColor;
	
	Plot1( MyOpen, "Open", BarColor ) ;
	Plot2( MyClose, "Close", BarColor ) ;
	If (PlotZeroLine) then
		Plot3( 0, "Zero");

	MyBarNumber = BarNumber[0];

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  #114 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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  #115 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received

In order to be fully committed to ACD methodology, I changed my username and the name of the thread accordingly. Thanks Big Mike.

Going forward this journal is about trading the ACD method modified with a lot of help from @mfbreakout, @BTR411 and @Balanar. I appreciate every bit of help I have received from them. I am also grateful to @TradeFlightPlan for his generosity.

The past 2 and a half weeks were spent solidifying the trading plan. I am amazed at the potential of Mark Fisher's ACD. No need to get into the details but I have enough of ACD programmed to help with day trading CL.

This journal is what it is to hold me accountable for my trades going forward. For that same reason, I am including my trading plan below. The plan is not black and white. It is not an if this.. then that kind of a plan. It is a discretionary plan. Something that I have always been afraid of but I am well prepared this time.

I am going to be fully realistic about my trading plan. I do not expect to start hitting home runs. I do expect to hit singles and doubles with the occasional home run and avoid being struck out as much as possible. This is an evolving plan that will mature as the days go by. It is not my full plan but it is enough to keep me honest in a public forum.

Concise Trading Plan

Guiding Principles
  • I fully embrace the fact that losing is part of trading and that there will be losses no matter what.
  • I fully accept the fact that the market is in control and that I can only control when I get in and get out of a trade.
  • I fully accept my trading to be completely free of ego and completely full of conviction.
  • I will have no bias strong enough to accept that a trade has been proven wrong or even to reverse trade direction

Context
Context or big picture or bias is required before a trade can be put on. This is what defines the why.

Context will be defined based on the following:

Context areas:
  • First day of the month defines the monthly pivot range for the rest of the month
  • First asian session of the week defines the weekly open range for the rest of the week
  • 45 minutes of the Euro session starting 1:30 AM central defines the Euro open range
  • 45 minutes of the US session starting at 7:30 AM central defines the US open range except inventories day
  • Daily 6:30 PM to 1:00 AM central defines the asian session range
  • Daily 2:00 AM to 7:00 AM central defines the Euro session range
  • Daily 8:15 AM to 4:15 PM central defines the US session range
  • 5 PM to 4:15 PM defines the ETH session
  • 7:30 AM to 4:15 PM defines the RTH session
  • RTH Range with exchange close defines the daily pivot range for the next day
  • 3 day ETH range with exchange close defines the 3 day pivot range for the next day
  • ETH session range defines the Previous Day high/low for next day
  • Exchange close defines the Previous day close for the next day

Other factors affecting context are as follows:
  • Average Daily Range
  • Current Daily Range
  • Time of the day
  • Results of current day trading

The lists above cover most of the factors that will be considered for defining context.

My trading day begins at 7 AM at which point in time the following context areas are available:
  • Weekly open range
  • Daily pivot range
  • 3 day pivot range
  • Asian session range
  • Euro open range
  • Euro session range
  • Previous day high, low, close

These areas will be examined with relation to current price and price action so far since ETH start to determine immediate context and potential trade locations.
  • Bullish bias is determined if price is above daily pivot range, 3 day pivot range.
  • Bearish bias is determined if price is below these 2 ranges
  • Price in relation to Euro A' and C' targets determines further bias
  • Price in relation to Weekly OR determines further bias

Most of the days, it is anticipated that there will be a high probability trade setup between 7 AM and pit open.

US OR formation completes at 8:15 AM with the exception of CL inventories day when it is 15 minutes after the report. At this time, in addition to the already established areas, the US OR is available to develop further context. ACD principles governing US OR will be taken into consideration from this point forward along with the already established context.

The following will be continuously monitored throughout the trading session:
  • Average Daily Range
  • Current Daily Range
  • Time of the day
  • Results of current day trading

As the current day range approaches the average daily range, probability of an existing move to continue further diminishes.
The later on it is during the day, the lower the probability of large moves is
There are no set rules based on current days trading results so this is currently left up to discretion

...to be updated further

Entries
Context will help identify 2 categories of trades - scalps and trends. While the major focus will be on trend entries, scalps may be attempted when a trading range (box) is established that is large enough.

Once context is determined, order flow will be used to find an optimal trade entry price.

2 home grown order flow algorithms will be employed for both types of trades:
  • One is based on temporary order flow imbalance when order absorption is evidenced
  • The other on order flow divergence when higher highs/lower lows are made on lesser order flow evidence

The existence of either one of these is enough to confirm trade entry.

Requirements for trend trades
  • Entry will always be taken with a stop market order when the market starts moving in the direction of the trade.
  • Entry will be taken such that the stop is below the most recent swing point by several ticks
  • Entry will be taken such that there is a high probability of the target to be at a location that allows for a minimum of 1:2 risk to reward ratio

These requirements will be slightly relaxed for scalp trades but points 2 and 3 will be adhered to as much as possible

Trade Management
This area is open to a lot of improvement since it is difficult to formalize rules without taking several trades but at least the following will be adhered to:
  • Once minimum R:R has been achieved, order flow will guide the exit as much as possible along with context areas
  • Stop loss order will not be moved at all for trend trades
  • Stop loss order will be moved to protect scalp trades as much as possible without suffocating the trade

... In progress, to be completed during the weekend.

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  #116 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received

... Concise Trading Plan continued...

State of the mind, psychological guidelines:
I intend to read these each day until the time I do not have to. This is like the stress-free me talking to the stressful me.

When not in a trade:
  • There is no rush to get into a trade. "Its not going to run away". There is always a next opportunity. This is not a sprint, its a marathon. Pace yourself.
  • Focus always on initiating a trade when there is context and confirmation. First context, then confirmation. Past habits will crop up but always suppress them, focus only on these 2 things. No context, no trade. No confirmation, no trade.
  • Time of the day is as important as current daily range in relation to average daily range. Later in the day or when current range near or greater than average range, become more passive. If everything lines up, take the trade but keep targets reasonable.

When in a trade:
  • The initial moments after getting into a trade are the most stressful for the mind. Stay calm. It is out of your hands at this time.
  • Whether trade goes against you or not, always think what next. It does not help looking at the DOM, look at the charts. Plan next steps. Think as if you are not in a trade, is a different trade setting up or are the charts suggesting neutral? Some of the best trades are right at the exit of an existing one. Be one step ahead.
  • If trade stops out, reassess the context and confirmation. No one proved you wrong. You do not have to be right. There is no ego. No one has to prove anything to anyone. Just say, "Next!" and move on.
  • If trade goes in favor, once minimum R:R is achieved, get out at first hint of unfavorable order flow. There are no fixed targets, instead let the order flow tools show the exit.
  • When in a favorable trade, watch the strength of pullbacks using the divergence algo to determine when enough is enough. There are no other rules regarding retraces yet so build them with experience. Use the same rules for scaling into a trade.

Commercial issues:
Currently, 2 accounts are available to trade. I have 7 days to go in the TST LTP account. Current balance is ($1,115). Balance required for funding is $750. I will leave this account alone for another week or so. In the meantime, I will start practicing using a new TST 150K combine which I got at a 70% discount for writing this journal. Thank you TST and futures.io (formerly BMT).

I will stick to an all in all out approach so that it is transferable to a smaller account. The new combine is for 20 days so based on some simple calculations, I will trade a maximum of 5 contracts starting out with 2 until a cushion is built. Will reassess at the end of each week.

...End

Much of this plan will remain the same for the next 4 weeks whichever account I trade. I do not want to make changes every other day. I will make only minor tweaks each week. The idea is to gather sufficient data so that there is sufficient evidence before any major changes are made.

I will have to figure out a way to put this all some place where it can be edited. It looks like past posts can only be edited for some period of time and not after that.

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  #117 (permalink)
 EastCoastTrader 
NoVa, USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL
 
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Masterfully written and thanks for sharing. I will incorporate some of them to mine. I signed up for another combine, Wasn't aware of getting discount on a combine for writing a journal.

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  #118 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
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Today's trades:

We were above the DP and RP

Euro C Up formed at pit open and long bias was further confirmed


Trade 1: Price pulled back to WORH, long from 93.43 got stopped out. In hindsight, there was no confirmation. There were several things wrong with this trade. Neither order flow algo confirmed. Stop was exactly at DP high which was also around the Euro ORH.

Trade 2: Price pulled back to Euro OR. Waited for 2nd pullback (this wasn't necessary, order flow had already confirmed), confirmed divergence and long at 93.26. Once US ORH was cleared, protected trade (trade was 30+ ticks in favor at this time), anticipated pullback to ORH, saw that the downward strength was very low, so held it. Saw orderflow diminish on 2nd leg up and placed order to get out 2 ticks above high at 93.70.

In hindsight, the exit was also good for a short scalp but there was no context so no trade.

Bias is still FULL LONG but ADR approaching and most likely done for the day.





11:00: Not trading anymore but marking observations for benefit of trading plan:

What to look for on a FULL BULL day



11:16: Posted about Friday's setup on MFB's thread. Thought I would record an image of what I was talking about for future reference:

Price made a Euro A' Up around 6:45. Pullback to RPL and EORH can be seen with evidence of diverged orderflow. Strength can be seen in the orderflow as price makes new highs from the bounce.


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LogicalTrader
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Monthly pivot range for Dec has been established:
MP High: 93.65
MP Low: 93.32

ACD methodology describes the monthly pivot range as a significant range for the rest of the month. Once price moves above or below the range, it tends to stay that way for the rest of the month.

After being below the monthly pivot since mid-October, today price is above December's range for the first time. Is it going to stay that way?

Take a look at the chart for 2013. 8 out of 11 months, once price moved away from the range, it did not break the monthly pivot for the rest of the month after moving above or below.



A close above 93.65 or below 93.32 is significant tomorrow and I will be watching this range and how price reacts here. First/Second day of the month has set the tone for the rest of the month on several occasions in 2013

Same thing for 2012. Similar behavior can be seen during 2012


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LogicalTrader
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All of the backtesting, reading the book numerous times, coding it to perfection etc, does not bring in automatic trust. It takes time. It was a picture perfect setup that I had already anticipated last night. Just didnt trust it enough.



Placed the order at 93.78, as it was about to be filled, I cancelled it for reasons I cannot explain.


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 Balanar 
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Placed the order at 93.78, as it was about to be filled, I cancelled it for reasons I cannot explain.

Sry to say that, but I know the reason and to be honest, you know the reason as well.

I call it FEAR and if you do not start to stick to your plan, your fear will grow more and more.

You give a single trade too much value. Who cares about one trade? The sum is much more important.

The only way to learn it is sticking to your plan and trade it!


Happy trading.

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Sry to say that, but I know the reason and to be honest, you know the reason as well.

I call it FEAR and if you do not start to stick to your plan, your fear will grow more and more.

Happy trading.

Thanks. I wont let it grow. I understand what you are saying.

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 jmsUK 
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Placed the order at 93.78, as it was about to be filled, I cancelled it for reasons I cannot explain.

Thanks for this insight into this methodology. It is very illuminating, though my method is different and I need NOT to slip between 2 stools.
I commiserate with you missing that trade. I was eyeing it too but switched attention to NQ and missed them both! Lesson there.
Did you notice the 5 wave move down during the London session of almost equal amounts (it just spilled into US RTH)? Might it have helped? Check out the 15 min. W1 35t, W3 40t and W5 42t and US couldn't take it lower.

Keep going. You are doing great.

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LogicalTrader
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Did you notice the 5 wave move down during the London session of almost equal amounts (it just spilled into US RTH)? Might it have helped?

I wasnt counting the waves but I noticed the pullback to Euro OR low and the formation of a Euro A' down. This actually got me confused because now it was an A down but it was still above the daily pivot. I was unprepared for this so couldnt gather enough conviction to take the trade. Obviously, I know what to do the next time this happens

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LogicalTrader
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Monthly pivot range for Dec has been established:
MP High: 93.65
MP Low: 93.32

A close above 93.65 or below 93.32 is significant tomorrow and I will be watching this range and how price reacts here. First/Second day of the month has set the tone for the rest of the month on several occasions in 2013

I dont think I will ever forget this day. What an experience! I dont care that I missed the trade. Whats more important is that the hypothesis has been correct for several days now although I have only been posting it since yesterday.

And its not just one thing. ACD has so many setups/variables that come into play differently each day. To be able to see them beforehand requires a lot of practice and that is why I coded most of them so I dont have to think too much. Over time, I will know which ones are most common etc. and when to look for which setup. Like today was the second trading day of the month which is the first trading day of the month after the monthly pivot is determined and it did today what it has done in the past 2 years on 75-80% of the occasions. I wouldnt be surprised if 93.67 remains the low of the month for several days now if not for the whole month

I am starting to deviate from the plan now. Took a short for a scalp. It was high probability etc etc but its a deviation from the plan so no more trades today. Got some more programming to do.

Great day for ACD today!

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LogicalTrader
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Another ACD concept for long term traders is to trade long term pivots like the 3 day pivot which I track, weekly pivot or a 2 week pivot and also the Monthly pivot.

If my understanding is correct then based on the chart I posted yesterday, many long term traders who are short since October or even September, should be getting out if we see 96.16 and above which was the November MP High.

If that happens, we could see another surge upwards because that would be uber bullish. Currently, price has stopped 1 tick below the November high.

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 mfbreakout 
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I wasnt counting the waves but I noticed the pullback to Euro OR low and the formation of a Euro A' down. This actually got me confused because now it was an A down but it was still above the daily pivot. I was unprepared for this so couldnt gather enough conviction to take the trade. Obviously, I know what to do the next time this happens


You have to be careful using WTI as a proxy for Euro OR. Mark Fisher clearly emphasized in his book one has to track

an instrument where it is domiciled. For Euro Brent is the precursor of WTI moves if one wants to use that strategy. Nothing wrong in testing both Brent and WTI but i was using that strategy my bet will be on Brent.

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You have to be careful using WTI as a proxy for Euro OR. Mark Fisher clearly emphasized in his book one has to track

an instrument where it is domiciled. For Euro Brent is the precursor of WTI moves if one wants to use that strategy. Nothing wrong in testing both Brent and WTI but i was using that strategy my bet will be on Brent.

Thanks MFB. I am already doing that since you last pointed me in this direction. I have been working with a delayed feed for brent which is not working. I am going to get the realtime feed so that I can analyze this better.

Thanks for the support.

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Another ACD concept for long term traders is to trade long term pivots like the 3 day pivot which I track, weekly pivot or a 2 week pivot and also the Monthly pivot.

If my understanding is correct then based on the chart I posted yesterday, many long term traders who are short since October or even September, should be getting out if we see 96.16 and above which was the November MP High.

If that happens, we could see another surge upwards because that would be uber bullish. Currently, price has stopped 1 tick below the November high.

Well, if today does not make one a believer of ACD, I dont know what does.


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LogicalTrader
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Still have a lot of work to do regarding my psyche. Have noted several points to ponder when tweaking plan this weekend:
  • What to do when minimum R:R has not been achieved and order flow strongly suggests (both algos against trade) getting out? Happened with both losing trades and the BE trade today. More importantly, did not happen with the winning trade and the "would have been" winning trade.
  • Consider not moving stop at all - be it a scalp or a trend trade so that there is no confusion.

I saw the context right today also. I think I am doing a good job with the context. I was short biased in the morning. Then, as ADR and time of day approached and saw the lack of energy in the downward pushes, I obtained a rotational bias and attempted longs. Execution is still killing me but I am very close so got to keep up the effort.

Todays trades:



Edit: Just realized that I forgot to modify the US OR time today. This totally changes things. 2nd time I have done this.

Edit: US ORL is 96.54. Even if I knew it at the time, there would be double conviction behind the longs later on in the session due to a failed A down with ADR in favor. I would probably not have taken the 2nd short in the morning thinking the US ORL was 96.87. It is what it is. Learn and grow.

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LogicalTrader
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Starting today, thanks to @mfbreakout for pointing me in this direction, I am working with both Brent and WTI. Not trading Brent but using it for context. All trades are still based on core ACD concepts - nothing changes.

Day 1 of this started with a bang. A down in Brent against Monthly pivot high coincided with failed A down in WTI against daily pivot high, with divergence, took the long and happy with what I see so far.

Its a mixed day when looking at both - BRN below DP, WTI above, A down in BRN, failed A down and failed A up in WTI. I plan to just sit on my hands and observe as much as I can.

Thanks again MFB.

Here's what I was looking at for this trade:



Note: Brent chart is not optimized. My ACD programming needs to be modified a little bit. It is displaying US session levels where it shouldnt.
Also, chart says entry 96.22 and exit 96.56 but its really 97.22 and 97.56

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 budfox 
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Congratulations Logical this is by far the best trading journal I have ever read.


btw how long did you trade ES in simulator using the ACD principles before trading it with real money?



Also would you recommend someone learn the principles from dalton's "mind over matter" first or learn acd from logical trader first? or it doesn't matter?

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LogicalTrader
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budfox View Post
Congratulations Logical this is by far the best trading journal I have ever read.


btw how long did you trade ES in simulator using the ACD principles before trading it with real money?



Also would you recommend someone learn the principles from dalton's "mind over matter" first or learn acd from logical trader first? or it doesn't matter?

Thanks. A couple of clarifications:
  • I do not yet trade real money
  • I do not trade ES nowadays, I am fully focused on CL only

For me, trading a simulator does not work so I trade a TST combine which is the closest to trading cash you can get without risking real money. Its not real money but for me, I am able to treat as a live account.

EDIT: I dont mean to discount the value of sim trading. If I had a replay feature like TOS has, I would be practicing past sessions everyday. Unfortunately I dont and my programs cannot be coded for TOS. Maybe they can be for NT but I haven't gotten to it yet.

ACD works better for me. I have studied volume profile concepts more than market profile and ACD works better for me given my current state of mind and current stage in my journey towards a successful trading career. Eventually, I want to be able to look at the market from several different points of view but since I am just about turning a new leaf, adding more will only confuse me so in the interests of keeping things simple, I have kept my trading setups strictly based on ACD concepts modified per mfbreakout's trading ideas. If you are interested in ACD, I would recommending reading the book a couple of times (maybe you will get it all in 1 read, took me a few reads though) and then look up mfbreakout's journal. That is where I learnt all this. Still, it will be up to you, how well you learn this. I believe the saying "you can lead a horse to water, but you cant make it drink" applies very well to learning trading.

Wish you the best.

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LogicalTrader
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I have decided to continue trading the LTP account starting Monday. It is best I dont wait until later on in the month since price action will die down as the holidays approach and I have until Dec 27th to trade the remaining 7 days.

I will be making minor tweaks to the trading plan over the weekend and not change it for the remainder of the LTP session.

Today's trading is not representative of my trading plan since I missed much of the morning session so not logging it. Had a dinner meeting with my customer (I consult part-time to pay the bills) and couldn't prepare for the day until later this morning.

So far, Brent vs WTI analysis is as follows:
  • There is correlation in the price movements between the two, but it is not something to be used for confirmation of entry. Yesterday was an A down in Brent and they cracked through the MP High while WTI had an A up. One could have traded Brent from the short side and WTI from the long side and still made money in both.
  • Brent adheres to ACD concepts the same as WTI if not better. They can be traded individually without considering what the other is doing but when ACD levels coincide between the two, it does help with gaining more conviction of taking a setup like it did yesterday.
  • Interestingly, trading WTI based on its own Euro OR prior to pit open and trading Brent based on its own US OR after WTI pit open also works very well. Based on the UR OR time, Brent made a perfect failed A down trade yesterday and also today although today there wasn't much follow through. I feel combining both Euro and US ORs for both products to get context has merit and should be studied further.

Granted, I have been looking at Brent for just 2 days, but these are the observations so far.

Brent Pivot Dance Today after news spike



Correction in chart: 111.03 is OR Low and not OR High. It just bounced off of this level after cracking through the DP low but as I mentioned in MFBs thread, you wouldn't develop a short context at the break of the DP because of this:


Mark Fisher
If the market stays within the pivot range for longer than three times the duration of the opening range (meaning 30 minutes if the opening range is 10 minutes), then that pivot is a meaningless concept for that day. Exit the trade and move onto something else. You want to see something happen when the market reaches these reference areas. If not, get out of the trade.

Mark B. Fisher. The Logical Trader: Applying a Method to the Madness (p. 61). Kindle Edition.


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LogicalTrader
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Minor tweaks to plan for remainder of the LTP account trading that starts tomorrow.
  • In order to simplify things, I will stick to trend trades only and no scalps. This resolves the question of whether or not to move stops once trade goes in favor or to take premature exits based on unfavorable order flow. Basically, once a trade is taken, the stop will not be moved and only planned exits will be taken.
  • To help with this, I programmed the ADR to plot such that it shows how much room is still available for price to run (obviously, this is not a given), as the trading day's range approaches the ADR, I will look to exit if in a trade or call it a day if not. I am using the 3, 10 and 30 day ADR and plotting the max and min of those in relation to current day's movements. As current day range expands, the ADR high/low move closer to price. Chart below.

This reduces the number of entries I will look for to either 1 or 2. This also means that if I miss a trade or get out too early, I might be done for the day. And that is fine.

As the US session approaches, I will look for price in relation to the Daily Pivot range, 3 Day Pivot range, Euro OR and WOR. Then take into account the current ADR in relation to the max/min of the 3, 10, 30 ADRs. If price near ADR, I will look for failures of ACD levels, Asian and Euro session ranges etc. If price boxed overnight, will keep options open accordingly. Then as the US OR forms, take that also into account and see what the market gives that day. Exits will be also be at these logical levels.

I still do not feel totally comfortable but cannot point out what it is. It feels I am missing something. I have all these levels and ideas in the plan but I am missing that 1 setup that I always look for. I cannot figure out what my bread and butter setup is. Maybe that is what it is and I will let it come to me as time progresses.

5 min chart with ADR (12/02/2013)


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 mfbreakout 
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" Based on the UR OR time, Brent made a perfect failed A down trade yesterday and also today although today there wasn't much follow through. I feel combining both Euro and US ORs for both products to get context has merit and should be studied further."


There is no UR OR time for Brent. A product has to be traded per ACD method where it is domiciled.

Just as someone trading WTI during Euro session can not use OR per his time, one can not trade Brent per US OR.

Since i do not track Brent to trade WTI, sorry can not provide more input. Maybe someone will step up and share

how he/she trades WTI during NY session based on Brent price action during euro session.

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LogicalTrader
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mfbreakout View Post
" Based on the UR OR time, Brent made a perfect failed A down trade yesterday and also today although today there wasn't much follow through. I feel combining both Euro and US ORs for both products to get context has merit and should be studied further."


There is no UR OR time for Brent. A product has to be traded per ACD method where it is domiciled.

Just as someone trading WTI during Euro session can not use OR per his time, one can not trade Brent per US OR.

Since i do not track Brent to trade WTI, sorry can not provide more input. Maybe someone will step up and share

how he/she trades WTI during NY session based on Brent price action during euro session.

Thanks MFB. You are right that the a US OR time cannot be used for an product not traded in the US per Fish. I was just making this observation because the maximum volume in Brent is traded at the US open and more volume is traded during the US session than before it. When I look at the volume comparison between Brent and WTI, it is very similar. This is probably explained by the fact that Brent is traded on the ICE. Attaching chart below. Its similar every day.

So far been only 2 days observing Brent which does not mean much and there isnt enough data to state anything conclusively. What I am talking about is just a theory and as data accumulates, it will either mean something or it wont. I will keep refining my observations as time progresses.

Thanks for your support.


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 Balanar 
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I used to use Brent as indicator as well but in my case it did not make any sense because the volume is as low as in CL before pit open. That does not mean that it does not fit to you but these are my experiences. So I stay focused on CL.

After Pit open volume is higher in CL and as you know i like to use volume.

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 Balanar 
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LogicalTrader View Post

I still do not feel totally comfortable but cannot point out what it is. It feels I am missing something. I have all these levels and ideas in the plan but I am missing that 1 setup that I always look for. I cannot figure out what my bread and butter setup is. Maybe that is what it is and I will let it come to me as time progresses.

Remember, there is no 100% setup. Every setup has its winners and losers.

However, it is very important to feel comfortable.

I believe that the holy grail is in you or rather in your mind (always think positive, stay positive, stop valuing ONE trade, one trade of hundreds is not important, ... ).

There are several good setups out there but due to a bad condition of a trader or mental weakness the execution of a setup is not as good as it should be.

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LogicalTrader
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Failed A up setup today. Short from 97.79, holding for lower targets

EDIT 8:50 AM: Exited position at 97.42. Everything says we see at least 97.23 but I didnt have it in me to hold any longer.


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 jmsUK 
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Failed A up setup today. Short from 97.79, holding for lower targets

EDIT 8:50 AM: Exited position at 97.42. Everything says we see at least 97.23 but I didnt have it in me to hold any longer.

Nice job. great trade

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LogicalTrader
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Brent supported the WTI short in many ways. When the WTI Failed A up short setup
  • We had a good A down
  • MP was broken
  • Price was banging against MP low

Exit was also supported by Brent reaching its ADR targets.

These are still just observations. I really did not take the trade in WTI because of what Brent was doing. WTI trade was because of what WTI was doing.

LTP account still alive


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LogicalTrader
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Want to note in my journal the bigger than usual delta divergence today since the open in WTI. Selling is being heavily absorbed today in WTI while Brent price behavior is consistent with delta



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LogicalTrader
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All analysis and no execution is useless. So based on the analysis so far, long from 97.52. I have ORL, 3D Pivot High support to lean on. Entry was supported by order flow divergence. Anticipating a new high of the day quickly otherwise, it will just be a scratch. Did not take this in the LTP account but the regular combine account.

1:12 PM: 14 minutes into the trade. There is some follow through but stalled at WORL. So protecting it now. Will hold it and either I get 97.98 or it is a scratch.

1:19 PM: Its a scratch. Had to try it. Was good for 20 ticks or so, not good enough for a new high.


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LogicalTrader
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Getting good divergence at around 98.60. Price is at ADR limits. Gave it enough time to test the high once more. Attempting short in anticipation of Failed A up and pullback to WORH area. Short from 98.51.

8:54: 45 minutes in the trade. Finding it difficult to stick to the plan. I have been moving target and stop around. Finally decided to accept whatever the outcome. Target and stop back to what it should be. It is a failed A up and I will just have to stick to the plan and go for min R:R at least. Earliest target I will take is 98.06 area. Worst case, tomorrow is another day.


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 mfbreakout 
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LogicalTrader View Post
Getting good divergence at around 98.60. Price is at ADR limits. Gave it enough time to test the high once more. Attempting short in anticipation of Failed A up and pullback to WORH area. Short from 98.51.

8:54: 45 minutes in the trade. Finding it difficult to stick to the plan. I have been moving target and stop around. Finally decided to accept whatever the outcome. Target and stop back to what it should be. It is a failed A up and I will just have to stick to the plan and go for min R:R at least. Earliest target I will take is 98.06 area. Worst case, tomorrow is another day.



We have failed A up and failed A down- these are ACD levels/set ups.

I am not sure what do you mean by " Not really ACD levels" ?

It's very typical of CL to rotate and your short is right on the MONEY. Whether it gives 40 ticks etc. and how long

it takes- we never know but ORL area is a good target identified by you.

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LogicalTrader
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To remind myself why it is important to stick to the plan, I want to post this. CL will pullback 20-30 ticks but as long as the premise of the trade is not broken, there is no reason to get out or panic. I had 31 ticks and in hindsight, 98.21 was a good exit but that didnt happen so what next? Stay in the trade per plan. The almost 30 tick pullback was really not that strong as is evident by the divergence. So the premise of the trade is still good - its a failed A down until proven wrong. Decent targets are ORL, WORH and possibly EORH which coincides with the low end of the min ADR. Hopefully Brent will cooperate a little. It has so far by having a good A down and hopefully it will go a bit more providing the push in WTI needed to break 98.20.


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LogicalTrader
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mfbreakout View Post
We have failed A up and failed A down- these are ACD levels/set ups.

I am not sure what do you mean by " Not really ACD levels" ?

It's very typical of CL to rotate and your short is right on the MONEY. Whether it gives 40 ticks etc. and how long

it takes- we never know but ORL area is a good target identified by you.

I just meant that the pivots were not nearby. The premise behind the trade was a failed A up, enough time passed and no attempt to take it higher etc. Learnt all this from you and thank you very much for all of your help.

Now, if I could only learn to hold on to the trades. Just got out at 98.20 but logically, I should be holding for ORL. But happy with 31 ticks.

Thanks for your support.

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  #149 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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LogicalTrader View Post
I just meant that the pivots were not nearby. The premise behind the trade was a failed A down, enough time passed and no attempt to take it higher etc. Learnt all this from you and thank you very much for all of your help.

Now, if I could only learn to hold on to the trades. Just got out at 98.20 but logically, I should be holding for ORL. But happy with 31 ticks.

Thanks for your support.


What difference would have it made in your life if instead of getting out at 98.20 , you got out at 98 etc.

Not much. Try not to be too focused on ticks on rotational days. CL can easily bounce to 98.50 again and you will

be not feeling good.

30-40 ticks is good on rotational days.

Do 2 trades per day on 2 cars for 30 ticks. You are looking at $1200 day.

1200x14 days= $16,800. Looks pretty good to me.


Nice short and trade.

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 jmsUK 
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I am VERY impressed by your potential targets analysis.
Nice one. Analysis has to be right before you can trade it I guess?
Looks like you are REALLY getting this.
Thanks again for the Gomi stuff. That's helping a lot

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LogicalTrader
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I am VERY impressed by your potential targets analysis.
Nice one. Analysis has to be right before you can trade it I guess?
Looks like you are REALLY getting this.
Thanks again for the Gomi stuff. That's helping a lot

Learnt this all from MFB and the gang at his journal.

How would I know to short at 98.50 with conviction? How much time should I wait before deciding it is enough and they havent moved it up so it should go down - which is called the "No standing around allowed" rule per MFB. No book teaches all this. We are just fortunate to have a forum like futures.io (formerly BMT) and to have traders like MFB, Balanar, BTR411 (he doesnt post anymore) and others that share their thoughts. No other way to figure this out.

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  #152 (permalink)
 Balanar 
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Great job Logical!

When you have your personal mental strength you will catch almost every good move and take cash home.

Remember, we only trade probabilities. One trade has no value, only the sum of them. Some traders like to look at their results at the end of the day, someone at the end of the week and someone even at the end of the month. It is up to you how you handle this.

Mark this day because it shows how time filter works on almost every setup mfbreakout, you and me traded today.

I keep following this journal and I hope that it will raise another unique successful trader.

Again, great job, keep on working hard and you will reach your goals.


I will follow your journal because I really like it.

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  #153 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
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Balanar View Post
Great job Logical!

When you have your personal mental strength you will catch almost every good move and take cash home.

Remember, we only trade probabilities. One trade has no value, only the sum of them. Some traders like to look at their results at the end of the day, someone at the end of the week and someone even at the end of the month. It is up to you how you handle this.

Mark this day because it shows how time filter works on almost every setup mfbreakout, you and me traded today.

I keep following this journal and I hope that it will raise another unique successful trader.

Again, great job, keep on working hard and you will reach your goals.


I will follow your journal because I really like it.

I value your advice very much. Thank you for your support.

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LogicalTrader
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Today's Brent context also supported the WTI trades. At and just after pit open, Brent had just made a C down and held below its OR for more than the required time and the context was short so the Failed A down in WTI made sense which I took.

Then, the logical stopping point for the move was around 97.80 which was also where the ADR limits were for WTI. Also, at the same time, Brent had hit its own ADR limits which supported a long context in the WTI.

So far, it seems like Brent is a very good compliment to WTI context.

Note: The green lines show Brent OR 109.98 - 109.64.


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LogicalTrader
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LogicalTrader View Post
I still do not feel totally comfortable but cannot point out what it is. It feels I am missing something. I have all these levels and ideas in the plan but I am missing that 1 setup that I always look for. I cannot figure out what my bread and butter setup is. Maybe that is what it is and I will let it come to me as time progresses.

Thanks again to MFB, I was able to reflect on things and answer my own dilemma. My bread and butter setups are as follows and I really needed some reassurance which I received today. Seems like a DUH thing but it had gotten overwhelming for me. Now it seems simple.
  • Failed A/C up/down. If I let the context guide me, it is fairly easy to identify this as I was able to yesterday and again today. Time filter is the most important "indicator" when it comes to taking failed A's or C's.
  • Good A/C up/down. Again time filter is important. Once good As or Cs are confirmed, wait for pullback to logical areas before initiating a trade in the direction of the A or C. Other context confirmations need to be there as identified in the trading plan. Like today, it was technically an A down but that does not mean I go short because the context supported shorts right after pit open but not after the A down was confirmed and most of us knew where the down move would most probably die and possibly reverse.
For now, I take comfort in knowing this is what I will look for coming into a day.

Got to remember tomorrow morning about the inventory report and that the OR forms later. Have messed up twice in the past

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LogicalTrader
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Thought too much and missed the failed A up today. Everything lined up, including Brent but I got stuck on the pivots. Almost entered at 98.33. Target would have been WORH.

EDIT: Just got to WORH at 97.90. Would have been a 43 tick trade. No use crying over it. I will get it next time.


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 jmsUK 
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LogicalTrader View Post
Thought too much and missed the failed A up today. Everything lined up, including Brent but I got stuck on the pivots. Almost entered at 98.33. Target would have been WORH.

If one had ignored the delayed OR and traded as if OR formed at usual time, the outside bar on 5min was a good trigger, which I didn't do as I was waiting till end of extended OR! Lesson there

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 jmsUK 
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If you get a second, could you remind me OR times for EIA stox day
TIA

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LogicalTrader
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If you get a second, could you remind me OR times for EIA stox day
TIA

7:30 to 9:45 AM central. I think you can tell 4-5 minutes after the report what the ORH-ORL could be mostly.

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  #160 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
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The Failed A up went through the pivot, which is a pretty strong move and establishes a strong short bias. I am short on the pullback from 97.98. Holding for WORL or ADR limits.

Just exited at 97.66 exactly. Done for the day.


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metobi1
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LogicalTrader View Post
The Failed A up went through the pivot, which is a pretty strong move and establishes a strong short bias. I am short on the pullback from 97.98. Holding for WORL or ADR limits.

Just exited at 97.66 exactly. Done for the day.


Wow what a journey and jornal. Its interesting to see you make the same set of mistakes till after some encouragement you started to adjust. Enjoyed going through your jornal, as it gave me an idea of how to do mine when I start full time trading hopefully by January. Like the visible marked improvements in your trading/psycology, keep it up and hope u keep getting successful

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  #162 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
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6 days in the LTP so far. I was unprepared the first 3 days and seeing how I traded, I took a hard look at what I was doing. Took a break for over a month before resuming. During that month, I back tested until my eyes were red every night and I programmed every thing I knew about ACD that meant something to my trading.

When the preparation was complete, I resumed trading the LTP account this past Monday after a break of 33 days. The first 3 trading days in the LTP account in Nov, I lost $1115. The next 3 days since Monday, I have almost made it all up.

Want to remind myself that as it is with everything in life, just having an opportunity means nothing if you are not prepared.

I have 4 more days to go and about $900 still to make to qualify for funding. But whether or not I get funded in this LTP, I feel confident I can trade live now - no doubts whatsoever.


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LogicalTrader
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It is a failed A up but we are still above pivots so my bias is long. Stopped out on one attempt. Long again from 97.89. This is the last trade of the day if stopped out which would mean I read it wrong and should have gone short with the failed A up.

EDIT: Chart says failed A down but its a failed A up.

EDIT: Done for the day. Got it wrong today. It is never too good to be true. I got to believe in it. 4 consecutive days it was a failed A up and I executed on it right on 3 days. I thought it is too good to be true to have 4 in a row.


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LogicalTrader
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I am done for the day in the LTP account but I have to trade as if I were trading live. So long because of failed A down from 97.70 in the regular combine account.

EDIT: 45 minutes in the trade and I am protecting it now. If it had to go, it would have but keeps failing below WORH and 3D Pivot high. It has to he a heavy push through those levels for this long to work and the more time it just stays here, the less likely it is to work. Stop to entry and that will be it for the day for me.

EDIT: Out at entry. Didnt work out. Now done for the day. No more trades in either account today.


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 mfbreakout 
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LogicalTrader View Post
It is a failed A up but we are still above pivots so my bias is long. Stopped out on one attempt. Long again from 97.89. This is the last trade of the day if stopped out which would mean I read it wrong and should have gone short with the failed A up.

EDIT: Chart says failed A down but its a failed A up.

EDIT: Done for the day. Got it wrong today. It is never too good to be true. I got to believe in it. 4 consecutive days it was a failed A up and I executed on it right on 3 days. I thought it is too good to be true to have 4 in a row.



You taking Mark Fisher words literally when price goes through daily pivot and pivot range. Think it this way-

When something is expected then it needs to follow through. Just going through pivot and just sitting above it

is failed A up through pivot.


What did not happen is more important than what happened- James Dalton.

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LogicalTrader
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mfbreakout View Post
You taking Mark Fisher words literally when price goes through daily pivot and pivot range. Think it this way-

When something is expected then it needs to follow through. Just going through pivot and just sitting above it

is failed A up through pivot.


What did not happen is more important than what happened- James Dalton.

Thanks. You are 100% right on the mark. I have been trying to not take the theory literally. I am now long because of a failed A down of both the OR and the DP now.

Thanks for your support.

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 Balanar 
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Good job on re-entering in long.

One more key difference between successful traders and other traders.

*thumps up*

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  #168 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
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2 losses today in the LTP account. Not what I was hoping for but it is part of the learning process.

There is no use of doing hindsight analysis. The failed A up was the trade of the day and I didnt know it at that time. The decision to go long at the time seemed to be the logical one.

I am in 2 minds about one aspect of my current plan. During the 2nd long, I saw very strong evidence of a short from WORH. Price was about 2-3 ticks above my entry long and I really wanted to reverse because I was well aware of the failed A up even when I took the long. It is very evident in the 1 min chart I posted. 3 consecutive bars had a red dot over them which meant a whole lot of buy orders were being absorbed (this is a time chart which meant that for 3 minutes the buy orders were above average and price didnt budge). But I took my hands off the mouse in order to stay true to the plan when in my heart I knew I was going to get stopped out.

Then during the long from 97.70, price went 19 ticks in favor twice and I could see evidence of a short again from WORH area. This time I moved my stop to entry but didnt go short. Both of those shorts would have worked very well. If this was a one time occurrence, I would be foolish to even consider this but this is not the first time this has happened. I have given up so many 15-20 tick trades in order to stay true to the plan.

I am unsure if I should change anything with only 3 days remaining in the LTP. Part of me says, no changes. If not this LTP, I will get it in the next. The other part of me says that there is still a decent chance of getting funded and maybe I should adjust my plan slightly for the next 3 trading sessions.

Bottom line is that i need to make about 120 ticks in the next 3 sessions trading 1 contract. Should I open up the plan a little bit and take more risk or stay on course with current plan? Will decide on this in the next 6 hours.


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LogicalTrader
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Should I open up the plan a little bit and take more risk or stay on course with current plan? Will decide on this in the next 6 hours.

Took less than 6 minutes to decide. Had I taken the failed A up short, I wouldn't be thinking about this so no changes to the plan. Going to stick with it and do what needs to be done.

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LogicalTrader
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I am liking Brent more each day I look at it. The moves are predictable as WTI and true to ACD/MFB method.

Yesterday


Today

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LogicalTrader
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Old habits cropped up today. Went short on impulse at 96.52. There was no reason to. Very disappointing to not follow the plan after so many days and weeks of study and reinforcement.

If anything, this is a failed A down and I should have been long.

For whatever reasons, didnt exit the position and paid the price.


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  #172 (permalink)
 Sazon 
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LogicalTrader View Post
Old habits cropped up today. Went short on impulse at 96.52. There was no reason to. Very disappointing to not follow the plan after so many days and weeks of study and reinforcement.

If anything, this is a failed A down and I should have been long.

For whatever reasons, didnt exit the position and paid the price.


Take a deep breath and try not to beat yourself up over it too much. Promise yourself that you will stick to your rules and maintain discipline on the next opportunity. I have found that being patient with myself helped me overcome some discipline issues. Eventually, it clicks.

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 mfbreakout 
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LogicalTrader View Post
Old habits cropped up today. Went short on impulse at 96.52. There was no reason to. Very disappointing to not follow the plan after so many days and weeks of study and reinforcement.

If anything, this is a failed A down and I should have been long.

For whatever reasons, didnt exit the position and paid the price.



Context is short because you spent some serious time in writing codes for these red/green dots? I agree with Context and there were all the indication for CL going lower and if it does not goes down not a big deal, either scratch

or stop out.

You can use time filter to get out if no follow through.

If these are your signals and set ups- you have to take the trade. Otherwise it is difficult to believe in ones method

indicators etc.One have to take every set up. If CL had gone to 96- you will feel good.

My short from 96.97 ONLY looks good because i made 45 ticks. I could have easily gotten taken out. Since we never know, have to take every set up.

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LogicalTrader
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For the remainder of the session there are 2 possible trades per plan and I will wait for those to play out. If it just chops for the remainder of the session, then so be it - no more trades.
  • Failure of 96.80 would be a short looking for lower lows for the day
  • Failure of ORL would be a failed A down long looking for ORH or possibly higher


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LogicalTrader
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mfbreakout View Post
Context is short because you spent some serious time in writing codes for these red/green dots? I agree with Context and there were all the indication for CL going lower and if it does not goes down not a big deal, either scratch

or stop out.

You can use time filter to get out if no follow through.

If these are your signals and set ups- you have to take the trade. Otherwise it is difficult to believe in ones method

indicators etc.One have to take every set up. If CL had gone to 96- you will feel good.

My short from 96.97 ONLY looks good because i made 45 ticks. I could have easily gotten taken out. Since we never know, have to take every set up.

Thanks. As always, much appreciated.

The problem with the entry was that I just hit short at the market which is what I used to do before but I have tried very hard to get away from that habit and let the market first start moving in the direction of the trade and enter with a stop market a few ticks above/below. You are right, all indications were for at least 1 more push down but had I stuck to my execution plan, I would never have been filled. The purpose of this way of executing is to avoid such impulse trades when I just hit the market. There was no need to be in such a rush.

Thanks again.

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 Balanar 
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This is part of our job Logical.

Do not worry, everyone makes mistakes.

It is only important to know WHY you made this trade?

I know you did not stick to your plan, but why?

Write down your feelings and reasons before you entered this trade (maybe you still know it).
I know some traders that trade due to boredom, they are good traders, but they sometimes have no patience.

Patience is one of the best attributes a trader needs to have.


Learn from your mistakes and you will be a better trader tomorrow.

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LogicalTrader
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LogicalTrader View Post
For the remainder of the session there are 2 possible trades per plan and I will wait for those to play out. If it just chops for the remainder of the session, then so be it - no more trades.
  • Failure of 96.80 would be a short looking for lower lows for the day
  • Failure of ORL would be a failed A down long looking for ORH or possibly higher

The 2nd scenario per plan did take place and I took the long from 96.37. Held it for over 2 hours for the failed A down to play out in its entirety. Logical target was the ORH at 97.05 and I front ran it a little bit to secure my trade. Just got out at 97 even. I still dont have an orderflow exit on my charts so this could very well run higher towards 97.50. But that would be day dreaming for me trading 1 contract so I had to get out at the planned target

I am going to call it a day with the hopes of funding still very much alive.

Chart at time of entry:

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LogicalTrader
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2 trades today as noted in previous posts. 1 loss, 1 win. Net result 48 ticks on the day. Net positive equity in the LTP account for the first time today after 8 days of trading. It is still achievable.

Will stick to the plan, no more modifications required.


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LogicalTrader
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Having missed the early morning action, took 2 shorts today. Both failed. I was anticipating a rotation down towards WORH or DP but didnt happen. It still might but I took the risk that I could and it didnt work out and I am out of bullets now.

Trades were per plan so no issues there. Done for the day.

Trade 1: Short 97.12 on pullback to 97.20 level (which was previously support). On the way down, they defended 97 very well and I could see orderflow turn against me. I could have broken even on this trade but wanted to stay true to the plan so did not move my stop.


Trade 2: Short failed A up. After my entry, they defended 97.20 extremely well and I could see it all happen which is good. In the future, I will exit such trades when i see order flow like I saw today during both trades.

This trade is still in progress and may still work out for someone else with different risk parameters. They havent been able to take it up and may still break 97.20, who knows. Unfortunately, my stop got taken out to the tick and I am done.

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  #180 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
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Starting January, I will strictly adhere to being at my desk before 6 AM. Until then, I have been marking trades that I miss. Today's early morning action was good enough to fulfill the daily goal and not require any more trades during the day. Its easy to document all this in hindsight but these are trades that met the plan parameters very well and I would most likely have taken.


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  #181 (permalink)
 EastCoastTrader 
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@LogicalTrader - I too took the 9:45 Failed A up short, was up about 15 ticks, wanted the ORL as target, didn't move my stop and got stopped out.

Question: Can we have an "A Up" after a "Failed A up"? In other words, at 10:35 when CL finally traded over 97.39 for required half the time of OR, is today considered an "A up" day?

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  #182 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
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EastCoastTrader View Post
@LogicalTrader - I too took the 9:45 Failed A up short, was up about 15 ticks, wanted the ORL as target, didn't move my stop and got stopped out.

Question: Can we have an "A Up" after a "Failed A up"? In other words, at 10:35 when CL finally traded over 97.39 for required half the time of OR, is today considered an "A up" day?

It depends how technical we want to be and how literally we want to take Fisher's words. Technically an A up is made when price touches 8 ticks above the OR. Further to that is the definition of what a GOOD A up is or a FAILED A up is. Technically, if price stays above the OR for 22 minutes (1/2 the OR time), its a good A up and your bias should be long and on the other hand if it retraces into the OR (whether it touched the A up target or not) before 1/2 of the OR time is up, then its a failed A up.

So today, technically, the first instance was a failed A up and the 2nd was a good A up.

Also, a day isnt defined as an A up or a down day per Fisher. Price can fail at or before the A value making it a failed A, or price can continue trading at or beyond the A value making it a good A. It does not mean price cannot make a good A after failing once or twice or get back into the OR or even go through it to its C value and beyond after making a good A.

The practical application of all this is best learnt from a practicing trader like @mfbreakout which is what I am currently doing. His journal has numerous examples of trading good and failed A's and C's etc.

The nuts and bolts of it as I have understood from @mfbreakout and my own backtesting it is as follows:
  • By default, assume that it will be a failed A (took me a while to get this into my head) until proven otherwise. Look at where price was just before 8 central today - at WORH, that was a great failed A down which I missed. The biggest change in my trading has come from understanding that the OR does not have to be complete for a failed A to be taken. If there is sufficient distance between the OR high and low, a failed A is in the cards while the OR is still developing.
  • Always look at the volume when price gets to the OR, any good break needs volume to back it up. If a good A is made on decent volume, trade that good A on a pullback, not the breakout.
  • Other factors that Fisher talks about in his book. The ones that I currently use are the daily pivot, the 3 day rolling pivot and the monthly pivot. Where they are in relation to the OR (developing or complete).
Hope this helps.

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  #183 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
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LogicalTrader View Post
  • Other factors that Fisher talks about in his book. The ones that I currently use are the daily pivot, the 3 day rolling pivot and the monthly pivot. Where they are in relation to the OR (developing or complete).

Forgot to elaborate on this point. The importance of these pivot ranges - DP, 3DP, MP or WOR - are in the way they are utilized. Failures (Failed A's/C's) are best against these (like today's failed A down against WORH) and Good A/Cs are best through these with volume. Having these to lean on gives more confirmation to the trade.

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  #184 (permalink)
 jmsUK 
Manchester, Greater Manchester, UK
 
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LogicalTrader View Post
Forgot to elaborate on this point. The importance of these pivot ranges - DP, 3DP, MP or WOR - are in the way they are utilized. Failures (Failed A's/C's) are best against these (like today's failed A down against WORH) and Good A/Cs are best through these with volume. Having these to lean on gives more confirmation to the trade.

As you know I am new to this, but am using Gomi's prev 7_Days indicator showing the ORH ORL of previous 7 days. Because I don't know about the Pivots (yet), I am focusing on the ORH & ORL in different time zones and it is fascinating to watch the market accepting/rejecting these levels. Knowing where they are, I mean being aware of them, really helps in understanding the PA.
Thanks again for your help with all this.

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  #185 (permalink)
 EastCoastTrader 
NoVa, USA
 
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[*]By default, assume that it will be a failed A (took me a while to get this into my head) until proven otherwise. Look at where price was just before 8 central today - at WORH, that was a great failed A down which I missed. The biggest change in my trading has come from understanding that the OR does not have to be complete for a failed A to be taken. If there is sufficient distance between the OR high and low, a failed A is in the cards while the OR is still developing.

I agree, right at the pit open, price was not only at WORH but also at a pivot range; so a beautiful long setup indeed. I guess I'll have to hammer that into my head that an OR need not to be completed.

Even on my losing trade, similar to yours on the Failed A up, I was second guessing becuase everything is pointing up; price above daily and 3d pivots, prior month High, above VWAP, major MAs etc.

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  #186 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
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jmsUK View Post
As you know I am new to this, but am using Gomi's prev 7_Days indicator showing the ORH ORL of previous 7 days. Because I don't know about the Pivots (yet), I am focusing on the ORH & ORL in different time zones and it is fascinating to watch the market accepting/rejecting these levels. Knowing where they are, I mean being aware of them, really helps in understanding the PA.
Thanks again for your help with all this.


LogicalTrader View Post
Context will be defined based on the following:

Context areas:
  • First day of the month defines the monthly pivot range for the rest of the month
    ...
  • 5 PM to 4:15 PM defines the ETH session
  • 7:30 AM to 4:15 PM defines the RTH session
  • RTH Range with exchange close defines the daily pivot range for the next day
  • 3 day ETH range with exchange close defines the 3 day pivot range for the next day
    ...

You will be fascinated even more if you have pivots on your charts. You can calculate the pivots fairly easily using the definition I posted in my trading plan above. I used excel before I programmed it into my charts.

Once you have the H, L and Close of any range, calculate the Pivot range using the following:


Mark Fisher
Calculate the daily pivot and daily pivot range using the following formula.

(High + Low + Close) / 3 = Daily Pivot Price
(High + Low) / 2 = Second Number
Difference between Daily Pivot Price and Second Number = Daily Pivot Differential
Daily Pivot Price Plus or Minus Pivot Differential = Daily Pivot Range

Mark B. Fisher. The Logical Trader: Applying a Method to the Madness (pp. 37-38). Kindle Edition.


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  #187 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
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EastCoastTrader View Post
Even on my losing trade, similar to yours on the Failed A up, I was second guessing becuase everything is pointing up; price above daily and 3d pivots, prior month High, above VWAP, major MAs etc.

I too had mixed feelings. It wasn't a 100% go for me either. On one hand, price had already been upto the ADR limits (I use min/max of 3,10,30 ADR) and 3DP high and rejected and on the other hand, it had bounced up from WOR and 3DP low. Also knew that I had missed the morning trades. It is what it is. Will get it tomorrow

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  #188 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
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What a platform TradeStation is. I was able to build my own continuous contract symbol for Brent and all the levels just lined up perfectly. TS adjusted the closing monthly spreads perfectly. I didnt know I could do that. Struggled all day Friday to figure it out and very happy now that I did.

Very active Euro session today for Brent. It rolled over to the Feb contract today (or Friday I think) and very impressed again with price behavior in relation to ACD principles.


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  #189 (permalink)
 jmsUK 
Manchester, Greater Manchester, UK
 
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LogicalTrader View Post
You will be fascinated even more if you have pivots on your charts. You can calculate the pivots fairly easily using the definition I posted in my trading plan above. I used excel before I programmed it into my charts.

Once you have the H, L and Close of any range, calculate the Pivot range using the following:

Thanks for that.
I have today ordered the book (hardback version). Hope to have it this week to read over Christmas.

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  #190 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
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jmsUK View Post
Thanks for that.
I have today ordered the book (hardback version). Hope to have it this week to read over Christmas.

Great. Hope it is as useful to you as it is to me.

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  #191 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
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LTP account took a hit today. Good news is that I was mistaken in thinking that I had only 10 trading days to achieve the target. TST clarified that I can trade for as many days as I want (minimum 10) to achieve the profit target while keeping the winning day percentage at or above 50. So I probably have until the end of this week to hit the profit goal because after that the action will die out because of the holidays. So still in the hunt for funding.

Hoping for some good action tomorrow and Wed.


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  #192 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
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Want to note in my journal the bigger than usual delta divergence today since the open in WTI. Selling is being heavily absorbed today in WTI while Brent price behavior is consistent with delta


NOTE: Charts have moved over to the Feb contract so 12/09-12/10 prices have been adjusted by todays closing F-G spread

I had posted the above exactly 1 week earlier noticing unusual delta divergence and this is what had happened following the session:

12/09 - 12/10



One week later, same behavior. But in the opposite direction. Extensive absorption of buying. Do we see a move down overnight, accelerating in the Euro session and going through the WOR?

12/16/2013

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  #193 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
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0 trades so far. Just dont feel anything. There were scalps that would have worked for 15-25 ticks in hindsight. Still sitting on the sidelines and unless something compelling shows up, probably done for the day.

The shoulda, coulda, wouldas:

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  #194 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
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Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
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Took 2 trades later in the session today. Nothing wrong with them. Just didnt work out.

Just got a call from TST and found out that my LTP account is done. I had to maintain a winning day ratio of 50% or better and this is enforced after 10 trading days.

It does not matter which LTP rule kept me from getting funded this time around. Bottom line is that I either have to be at my game 100% or I cannot play. I cannot be away during peak trading times, miss my bread and butter trades, and expect to see consistent results. All of which changes in Jan so looking forward to it.

On the bright side, my vacation just started earlier than expected

Wish everyone here Happy Holidays!

See you in 2014.

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  #195 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
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Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
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I cannot practice using a replay feature which is a big disadvantage. But these past days, I spent a lot of time looking at historical charts to further solidify what exactly I should be looking at as the opportunities present themselves. Good to see that I am no longer looking for or programming "new stuff" to add to my trading. Instead, I am cutting out what I dont want to see.

Wanted to quote what @GaryD wrote in another journal that made a lot of sense to me:

GaryD View Post
Relaxing, enjoying life, not caring so much about the trade and focusing more on honing the method. Let the result be feedback, and adjust your approach accordingly.

You don't need to be good at everything in trading. In fact, just being good at one thing, and having the patience and the confidence to only do that one thing over and over, but only when the market says to, not when you say it should happen because you want money or you are bored, can be everything you need to succeed.

Made me think, what is that one thing that I want to be really good at. The answer was quite clear. It has to be a failed A trade. I already am good at this setup so I am going to focus only on this one thing and do it over and over again. I would love to be bored trading only failed A's.

So, I thought I would practice this week before I start the combine next week for another attempt at getting funded.

Day started with everything pointing lower. Below DP, WOR and Euro OR. We had also cracked into the 3DP range and bounced up from its low.

Got short at 99.95 when the failed A up presented itself but got stopped out to the tick at 100.10. In hindsight, should have thought that my stop was exactly at the 3DP high. No big deal. Thats why this is practice week.

Got short again from 99.88. Saw the failed A down setup at 99.70 but didnt get out and held it during the retracement up to 99.90ish because of the strong bearish bias. We have an A down now and if I could I would still be holding but got out at ADR limits at 99.51 for 37 ticks.

That ends todays practice session for me.


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  #196 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
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As it is common for any professional to go through a period of intensive study before he/she can start practicing what they learnt and make a living from it like a 3-4 year undergraduate/graduate course, similarly, over the past 4 years, I believe that I have been studying for proficiency in day trading.

As with any profession, we never stop learning but as 2013 comes to an end, I feel I have graduated to a level where my education has made me competent enough to get me started with earning a living from it.

The curriculum of my 4 year course is outlined below and I am thankful to these educators:

Paid Education:

2009
  • OTA, Houston - learnt candlestick patterns and got introduced to TradeStation.

2010
  • Rockwell Trading - learnt about range bars and a potential scalping method that can be automated
  • TopDogTrading - Dont actually remember what I learnt.
  • Better indicators by Barry Taylor - learnt how to identify professional vs amateur activity, importance of divergences

2011
  • EMiniAcademy - learnt how to trade moving averages, regression lines
  • Simple Automatic Trading - learnt about automated trading strategies.
  • Puretick - learnt how to use the NYSE tick, moving averages, double tops/bottoms
  • Emini Trading Strategies - learnt about a moving average system, identifying chop zones and staying away from them

2012
  • OrderFlowEdge - learnt about order flow techniques, identifying intraday POCs etc
  • Strategic Day Trading - learnt about trading trendlines, breakouts, fibs etc, automation with NinjaTrader
  • Back To The Future Trading - learnt how past data can be mined to predict future moves, learnt about trading using ATR strategies
  • Futures FX - learnt about reading footprints, scalping techniques
  • CoiledMarkets - learnt how to identify congestion and trade breakouts, learnt importance of fib extensions, using the open range as a roadmap for the day
  • Major subjects (Dissertation)
    • L2ST - - learnt volume profiling techniques, developing probable trading scenarios before putting on a trade, journaling/record keeping techniques, psychological readiness techniques
    • Jigsaw - learnt more about order flow techniques, herd mentality etc
    • NoBSDayTrading, John Grady - learnt even more about order flow techniques

Free Education:

2013 - The year of internship.
  • TopStepTrader - Learnt the value of discipline, patience and the importance of consistency required for day trading
  • MFBREAKOUT - Learnt how to apply Mark Fisher's ACD method, importance of time, ADR and Asian/Euro session ranges.

I am sure I am forgetting to mention some educators in the list above but I am still grateful to them.

As with any undergraduate/graduate course, we learn many many things but we do not necessarily use all of them on the job. Similarly, I consider that all of the above has contributed to my trading but I am not going to use all of it.


Dr. Wayne Dyer
With everything that has happened to you, you can either feel sorry for yourself or treat what has happened as a gift. Everything is either an opportunity to grow or an obstacle to keep you from growing. You get to choose.

I choose to believe these are gifts and I am thankful to have received them.

I am confident I will be a profitable trader in 2014.

Wish everyone at futures.io (formerly BMT) a wonderful new years eve and a peaceful and successful new year ahead!

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  #197 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
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LogicalTrader View Post
Monthly pivot range for Dec has been established:
MP High: 93.65
MP Low: 93.32

ACD methodology describes the monthly pivot range as a significant range for the rest of the month. Once price moves above or below the range, it tends to stay that way for the rest of the month.

After being below the monthly pivot since mid-October, today price is above December's range for the first time. Is it going to stay that way?

Take a look at the chart for 2013. 8 out of 11 months, once price moved away from the range, it did not break the monthly pivot for the rest of the month after moving above or below.



A close above 93.65 or below 93.32 is significant tomorrow and I will be watching this range and how price reacts here. First/Second day of the month has set the tone for the rest of the month on several occasions in 2013

What happened?

THIS:



Tomorrow's trading will define the MP range for January and on Jan 10th we will know the pivot range that will be statistically important for the first half of 2014.

NOTE: The price difference in the 2 images is because past data has been backadjusted according to the prompt month.

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  #198 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
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First couple of days in the month have statistically been volatile trend changers so today is not a surprise. I was in no mood to counter trade this by looking for a failed A. Instead on an A down confirmed, a pullback to ORL is as textbook as it can be. There was no need to get any sort of order flow confirmation, although there was plenty of that too.

Short 96.83 from pullback to ORL. Exited at mid-December support area of 96.50 for 33 ticks. That was my one good trade for the day.


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  #199 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
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January Monthly Pivot Range has been established

Pivot high: 97.16
Pivot Low: 96.01

It will be interesting to see tomorrow's action with EIA report being released tomorrow at 10 AM central and how price reacts at these levels.


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  #200 (permalink)
LogicalTrader
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
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Textbook setup again. Failed A up from pullback to Euro ORL. Short from 95.29, exit 94.95. I am not worried about not holding for bigger targets. I was aware of the probability of the move continuing further but my primary goal is to be consistently profitable and it does not matter how much profit as long as I maintain my minimum risk reward ratio.

This was today's one good trade of the day. Glad I followed the plan.

NOTE: In Today's case, the failed A up determination was a preemptive attempt to speculate what the ORH will be. Usually, it is not necessary to wait until 8:15 or in today's case, 10:15 (today being inventories day) to figure out what the ORH or ORL is. Most failed A's start between 7:45 and 8:15 AM based upon backtesting.

2nd NOTE: How did I determine that this move was probably not over. Other than the obvious ACD context, when the low was broken at 95.05 by 3 ticks, the offer just hung over there at 95.04-95.05 and absorbed a bunch of buy orders. It never went bid at 95.05. They were determined to take it down. Otherwise, it would be a flushout or some people call it a volume climax where we see a bunch of sell orders hit the market - way more than normal and then price snaps back above the break point.

New combine and bid for funding starts Monday. Good to end the week this way.


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