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The Logical Trading Journal
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The Logical Trading Journal

  #181 (permalink)
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Question

@LogicalTrader - I too took the 9:45 Failed A up short, was up about 15 ticks, wanted the ORL as target, didn't move my stop and got stopped out.

Question: Can we have an "A Up" after a "Failed A up"? In other words, at 10:35 when CL finally traded over 97.39 for required half the time of OR, is today considered an "A up" day?

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  #182 (permalink)
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EastCoastTrader View Post
@LogicalTrader - I too took the 9:45 Failed A up short, was up about 15 ticks, wanted the ORL as target, didn't move my stop and got stopped out.

Question: Can we have an "A Up" after a "Failed A up"? In other words, at 10:35 when CL finally traded over 97.39 for required half the time of OR, is today considered an "A up" day?

It depends how technical we want to be and how literally we want to take Fisher's words. Technically an A up is made when price touches 8 ticks above the OR. Further to that is the definition of what a GOOD A up is or a FAILED A up is. Technically, if price stays above the OR for 22 minutes (1/2 the OR time), its a good A up and your bias should be long and on the other hand if it retraces into the OR (whether it touched the A up target or not) before 1/2 of the OR time is up, then its a failed A up.

So today, technically, the first instance was a failed A up and the 2nd was a good A up.

Also, a day isnt defined as an A up or a down day per Fisher. Price can fail at or before the A value making it a failed A, or price can continue trading at or beyond the A value making it a good A. It does not mean price cannot make a good A after failing once or twice or get back into the OR or even go through it to its C value and beyond after making a good A.

The practical application of all this is best learnt from a practicing trader like @mfbreakout which is what I am currently doing. His journal has numerous examples of trading good and failed A's and C's etc.

The nuts and bolts of it as I have understood from @mfbreakout and my own backtesting it is as follows:
  • By default, assume that it will be a failed A (took me a while to get this into my head) until proven otherwise. Look at where price was just before 8 central today - at WORH, that was a great failed A down which I missed. The biggest change in my trading has come from understanding that the OR does not have to be complete for a failed A to be taken. If there is sufficient distance between the OR high and low, a failed A is in the cards while the OR is still developing.
  • Always look at the volume when price gets to the OR, any good break needs volume to back it up. If a good A is made on decent volume, trade that good A on a pullback, not the breakout.
  • Other factors that Fisher talks about in his book. The ones that I currently use are the daily pivot, the 3 day rolling pivot and the monthly pivot. Where they are in relation to the OR (developing or complete).
Hope this helps.

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  #183 (permalink)
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LogicalTrader View Post
  • Other factors that Fisher talks about in his book. The ones that I currently use are the daily pivot, the 3 day rolling pivot and the monthly pivot. Where they are in relation to the OR (developing or complete).

Forgot to elaborate on this point. The importance of these pivot ranges - DP, 3DP, MP or WOR - are in the way they are utilized. Failures (Failed A's/C's) are best against these (like today's failed A down against WORH) and Good A/Cs are best through these with volume. Having these to lean on gives more confirmation to the trade.

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  #184 (permalink)
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ORH/L


LogicalTrader View Post
Forgot to elaborate on this point. The importance of these pivot ranges - DP, 3DP, MP or WOR - are in the way they are utilized. Failures (Failed A's/C's) are best against these (like today's failed A down against WORH) and Good A/Cs are best through these with volume. Having these to lean on gives more confirmation to the trade.

As you know I am new to this, but am using Gomi's prev 7_Days indicator showing the ORH ORL of previous 7 days. Because I don't know about the Pivots (yet), I am focusing on the ORH & ORL in different time zones and it is fascinating to watch the market accepting/rejecting these levels. Knowing where they are, I mean being aware of them, really helps in understanding the PA.
Thanks again for your help with all this.

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  #185 (permalink)
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[*]By default, assume that it will be a failed A (took me a while to get this into my head) until proven otherwise. Look at where price was just before 8 central today - at WORH, that was a great failed A down which I missed. The biggest change in my trading has come from understanding that the OR does not have to be complete for a failed A to be taken. If there is sufficient distance between the OR high and low, a failed A is in the cards while the OR is still developing.

I agree, right at the pit open, price was not only at WORH but also at a pivot range; so a beautiful long setup indeed. I guess I'll have to hammer that into my head that an OR need not to be completed.

Even on my losing trade, similar to yours on the Failed A up, I was second guessing becuase everything is pointing up; price above daily and 3d pivots, prior month High, above VWAP, major MAs etc.

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  #186 (permalink)
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jmsUK View Post
As you know I am new to this, but am using Gomi's prev 7_Days indicator showing the ORH ORL of previous 7 days. Because I don't know about the Pivots (yet), I am focusing on the ORH & ORL in different time zones and it is fascinating to watch the market accepting/rejecting these levels. Knowing where they are, I mean being aware of them, really helps in understanding the PA.
Thanks again for your help with all this.


LogicalTrader View Post
Context will be defined based on the following:

Context areas:
  • First day of the month defines the monthly pivot range for the rest of the month
    ...
  • 5 PM to 4:15 PM defines the ETH session
  • 7:30 AM to 4:15 PM defines the RTH session
  • RTH Range with exchange close defines the daily pivot range for the next day
  • 3 day ETH range with exchange close defines the 3 day pivot range for the next day
    ...

You will be fascinated even more if you have pivots on your charts. You can calculate the pivots fairly easily using the definition I posted in my trading plan above. I used excel before I programmed it into my charts.

Once you have the H, L and Close of any range, calculate the Pivot range using the following:


Mark Fisher
Calculate the daily pivot and daily pivot range using the following formula.

(High + Low + Close) / 3 = Daily Pivot Price
(High + Low) / 2 = Second Number
Difference between Daily Pivot Price and Second Number = Daily Pivot Differential
Daily Pivot Price Plus or Minus Pivot Differential = Daily Pivot Range

Mark B. Fisher. The Logical Trader: Applying a Method to the Madness (pp. 37-38). Kindle Edition.



Last edited by LogicalTrader; December 16th, 2013 at 03:28 PM. Reason: Fixed pivot formula - copy/paste messed it up.
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  #187 (permalink)
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EastCoastTrader View Post
Even on my losing trade, similar to yours on the Failed A up, I was second guessing becuase everything is pointing up; price above daily and 3d pivots, prior month High, above VWAP, major MAs etc.

I too had mixed feelings. It wasn't a 100% go for me either. On one hand, price had already been upto the ADR limits (I use min/max of 3,10,30 ADR) and 3DP high and rejected and on the other hand, it had bounced up from WOR and 3DP low. Also knew that I had missed the morning trades. It is what it is. Will get it tomorrow

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  #188 (permalink)
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Brent/Tradestation

What a platform TradeStation is. I was able to build my own continuous contract symbol for Brent and all the levels just lined up perfectly. TS adjusted the closing monthly spreads perfectly. I didnt know I could do that. Struggled all day Friday to figure it out and very happy now that I did.

Very active Euro session today for Brent. It rolled over to the Feb contract today (or Friday I think) and very impressed again with price behavior in relation to ACD principles.

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  #189 (permalink)
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LogicalTrader View Post
You will be fascinated even more if you have pivots on your charts. You can calculate the pivots fairly easily using the definition I posted in my trading plan above. I used excel before I programmed it into my charts.

Once you have the H, L and Close of any range, calculate the Pivot range using the following:

Thanks for that.
I have today ordered the book (hardback version). Hope to have it this week to read over Christmas.

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  #190 (permalink)
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jmsUK View Post
Thanks for that.
I have today ordered the book (hardback version). Hope to have it this week to read over Christmas.

Great. Hope it is as useful to you as it is to me.

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