Learnt this all from MFB and the gang at his journal.
How would I know to short at 98.50 with conviction? How much time should I wait before deciding it is enough and they havent moved it up so it should go down - which is called the "No standing around allowed" rule per MFB. No book teaches all this. We are just fortunate to have a forum like futures.io (formerly BMT) and to have traders like MFB, Balanar, BTR411 (he doesnt post anymore) and others that share their thoughts. No other way to figure this out.
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When you have your personal mental strength you will catch almost every good move and take cash home.
Remember, we only trade probabilities. One trade has no value, only the sum of them. Some traders like to look at their results at the end of the day, someone at the end of the week and someone even at the end of the month. It is up to you how you handle this.
Mark this day because it shows how time filter works on almost every setup mfbreakout, you and me traded today.
I keep following this journal and I hope that it will raise another unique successful trader.
Again, great job, keep on working hard and you will reach your goals.
I will follow your journal because I really like it.
Last edited by Balanar; December 10th, 2013 at 02:01 PM.
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Today's Brent context also supported the WTI trades. At and just after pit open, Brent had just made a C down and held below its OR for more than the required time and the context was short so the Failed A down in WTI made sense which I took.
Then, the logical stopping point for the move was around 97.80 which was also where the ADR limits were for WTI. Also, at the same time, Brent had hit its own ADR limits which supported a long context in the WTI.
So far, it seems like Brent is a very good compliment to WTI context.
Note: The green lines show Brent OR 109.98 - 109.64.
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Thanks again to MFB, I was able to reflect on things and answer my own dilemma. My bread and butter setups are as follows and I really needed some reassurance which I received today. Seems like a DUH thing but it had gotten overwhelming for me. Now it seems simple.
Failed A/C up/down. If I let the context guide me, it is fairly easy to identify this as I was able to yesterday and again today. Time filter is the most important "indicator" when it comes to taking failed A's or C's.
Good A/C up/down. Again time filter is important. Once good As or Cs are confirmed, wait for pullback to logical areas before initiating a trade in the direction of the A or C. Other context confirmations need to be there as identified in the trading plan. Like today, it was technically an A down but that does not mean I go short because the context supported shorts right after pit open but not after the A down was confirmed and most of us knew where the down move would most probably die and possibly reverse.
For now, I take comfort in knowing this is what I will look for coming into a day.
Got to remember tomorrow morning about the inventory report and that the OR forms later. Have messed up twice in the past
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