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The Logical Trading Journal


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The Logical Trading Journal

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  #151 (permalink)
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received


jmsUK View Post
I am VERY impressed by your potential targets analysis.
Nice one. Analysis has to be right before you can trade it I guess?
Looks like you are REALLY getting this.
Thanks again for the Gomi stuff. That's helping a lot

Learnt this all from MFB and the gang at his journal.

How would I know to short at 98.50 with conviction? How much time should I wait before deciding it is enough and they havent moved it up so it should go down - which is called the "No standing around allowed" rule per MFB. No book teaches all this. We are just fortunate to have a forum like futures.io (formerly BMT) and to have traders like MFB, Balanar, BTR411 (he doesnt post anymore) and others that share their thoughts. No other way to figure this out.

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  #152 (permalink)
Germany
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: NTB / Continuum
Trading: FDAX and CL
 
Balanar's Avatar
 
Posts: 396 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 510 given, 1,627 received

Great job Logical!

When you have your personal mental strength you will catch almost every good move and take cash home.

Remember, we only trade probabilities. One trade has no value, only the sum of them. Some traders like to look at their results at the end of the day, someone at the end of the week and someone even at the end of the month. It is up to you how you handle this.

Mark this day because it shows how time filter works on almost every setup mfbreakout, you and me traded today.

I keep following this journal and I hope that it will raise another unique successful trader.

Again, great job, keep on working hard and you will reach your goals.


I will follow your journal because I really like it.

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  #153 (permalink)
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received



Balanar View Post
Great job Logical!

When you have your personal mental strength you will catch almost every good move and take cash home.

Remember, we only trade probabilities. One trade has no value, only the sum of them. Some traders like to look at their results at the end of the day, someone at the end of the week and someone even at the end of the month. It is up to you how you handle this.

Mark this day because it shows how time filter works on almost every setup mfbreakout, you and me traded today.

I keep following this journal and I hope that it will raise another unique successful trader.

Again, great job, keep on working hard and you will reach your goals.


I will follow your journal because I really like it.

I value your advice very much. Thank you for your support.

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  #154 (permalink)
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received

Today's Brent context also supported the WTI trades. At and just after pit open, Brent had just made a C down and held below its OR for more than the required time and the context was short so the Failed A down in WTI made sense which I took.

Then, the logical stopping point for the move was around 97.80 which was also where the ADR limits were for WTI. Also, at the same time, Brent had hit its own ADR limits which supported a long context in the WTI.

So far, it seems like Brent is a very good compliment to WTI context.

Note: The green lines show Brent OR 109.98 - 109.64.


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  #155 (permalink)
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received


LogicalTrader View Post
I still do not feel totally comfortable but cannot point out what it is. It feels I am missing something. I have all these levels and ideas in the plan but I am missing that 1 setup that I always look for. I cannot figure out what my bread and butter setup is. Maybe that is what it is and I will let it come to me as time progresses.

Thanks again to MFB, I was able to reflect on things and answer my own dilemma. My bread and butter setups are as follows and I really needed some reassurance which I received today. Seems like a DUH thing but it had gotten overwhelming for me. Now it seems simple.
  • Failed A/C up/down. If I let the context guide me, it is fairly easy to identify this as I was able to yesterday and again today. Time filter is the most important "indicator" when it comes to taking failed A's or C's.
  • Good A/C up/down. Again time filter is important. Once good As or Cs are confirmed, wait for pullback to logical areas before initiating a trade in the direction of the A or C. Other context confirmations need to be there as identified in the trading plan. Like today, it was technically an A down but that does not mean I go short because the context supported shorts right after pit open but not after the A down was confirmed and most of us knew where the down move would most probably die and possibly reverse.
For now, I take comfort in knowing this is what I will look for coming into a day.

Got to remember tomorrow morning about the inventory report and that the OR forms later. Have messed up twice in the past

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  #156 (permalink)
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received

Thought too much and missed the failed A up today. Everything lined up, including Brent but I got stuck on the pivots. Almost entered at 98.33. Target would have been WORH.

EDIT: Just got to WORH at 97.90. Would have been a 43 tick trade. No use crying over it. I will get it next time.


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  #157 (permalink)
Manchester, Greater Manchester, UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader7
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 88 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 363 given, 136 received


LogicalTrader View Post
Thought too much and missed the failed A up today. Everything lined up, including Brent but I got stuck on the pivots. Almost entered at 98.33. Target would have been WORH.

If one had ignored the delayed OR and traded as if OR formed at usual time, the outside bar on 5min was a good trigger, which I didn't do as I was waiting till end of extended OR! Lesson there

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  #158 (permalink)
Manchester, Greater Manchester, UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader7
Trading: YM
 
Posts: 88 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 363 given, 136 received

If you get a second, could you remind me OR times for EIA stox day
TIA

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  #159 (permalink)
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
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jmsUK View Post
If you get a second, could you remind me OR times for EIA stox day
TIA

7:30 to 9:45 AM central. I think you can tell 4-5 minutes after the report what the ORH-ORL could be mostly.

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  #160 (permalink)
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 1,420 given, 757 received


The Failed A up went through the pivot, which is a pretty strong move and establishes a strong short bias. I am short on the pullback from 97.98. Holding for WORL or ADR limits.

Just exited at 97.66 exactly. Done for the day.


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