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The Logical Trading Journal

  #141 (permalink)
Manchester, Greater Manchester, UK
 
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LogicalTrader View Post
Failed A up setup today. Short from 97.79, holding for lower targets

EDIT 8:50 AM: Exited position at 97.42. Everything says we see at least 97.23 but I didnt have it in me to hold any longer.

Nice job. great trade

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  #142 (permalink)
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
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Brent context supporting WTI short

Brent supported the WTI short in many ways. When the WTI Failed A up short setup
  • We had a good A down
  • MP was broken
  • Price was banging against MP low

Exit was also supported by Brent reaching its ADR targets.

These are still just observations. I really did not take the trade in WTI because of what Brent was doing. WTI trade was because of what WTI was doing.

LTP account still alive


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  #143 (permalink)
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
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Delta Divergence today LTF


Want to note in my journal the bigger than usual delta divergence today since the open in WTI. Selling is being heavily absorbed today in WTI while Brent price behavior is consistent with delta



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  #144 (permalink)
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
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Long from ORL, 3D pivot high support

All analysis and no execution is useless. So based on the analysis so far, long from 97.52. I have ORL, 3D Pivot High support to lean on. Entry was supported by order flow divergence. Anticipating a new high of the day quickly otherwise, it will just be a scratch. Did not take this in the LTP account but the regular combine account.

1:12 PM: 14 minutes into the trade. There is some follow through but stalled at WORL. So protecting it now. Will hold it and either I get 97.98 or it is a scratch.

1:19 PM: Its a scratch. Had to try it. Was good for 20 ticks or so, not good enough for a new high.



Last edited by LogicalTrader; December 9th, 2013 at 02:21 PM.
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  #145 (permalink)
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
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Short in anticipation of Failed A up

Getting good divergence at around 98.60. Price is at ADR limits. Gave it enough time to test the high once more. Attempting short in anticipation of Failed A up and pullback to WORH area. Short from 98.51.

8:54: 45 minutes in the trade. Finding it difficult to stick to the plan. I have been moving target and stop around. Finally decided to accept whatever the outcome. Target and stop back to what it should be. It is a failed A up and I will just have to stick to the plan and go for min R:R at least. Earliest target I will take is 98.06 area. Worst case, tomorrow is another day.



Last edited by LogicalTrader; December 10th, 2013 at 09:58 AM. Reason: Edited entry price
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  #146 (permalink)
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LogicalTrader View Post
Getting good divergence at around 98.60. Price is at ADR limits. Gave it enough time to test the high once more. Attempting short in anticipation of Failed A up and pullback to WORH area. Short from 98.51.

8:54: 45 minutes in the trade. Finding it difficult to stick to the plan. I have been moving target and stop around. Finally decided to accept whatever the outcome. Target and stop back to what it should be. It is a failed A up and I will just have to stick to the plan and go for min R:R at least. Earliest target I will take is 98.06 area. Worst case, tomorrow is another day.



We have failed A up and failed A down- these are ACD levels/set ups.

I am not sure what do you mean by " Not really ACD levels" ?

It's very typical of CL to rotate and your short is right on the MONEY. Whether it gives 40 ticks etc. and how long

it takes- we never know but ORL area is a good target identified by you.


Last edited by mfbreakout; December 10th, 2013 at 10:27 AM.
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  #147 (permalink)
Houston, TX
 
 
Posts: 294 since Aug 2013
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Failed A up Short contd

To remind myself why it is important to stick to the plan, I want to post this. CL will pullback 20-30 ticks but as long as the premise of the trade is not broken, there is no reason to get out or panic. I had 31 ticks and in hindsight, 98.21 was a good exit but that didnt happen so what next? Stay in the trade per plan. The almost 30 tick pullback was really not that strong as is evident by the divergence. So the premise of the trade is still good - its a failed A down until proven wrong. Decent targets are ORL, WORH and possibly EORH which coincides with the low end of the min ADR. Hopefully Brent will cooperate a little. It has so far by having a good A down and hopefully it will go a bit more providing the push in WTI needed to break 98.20.


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  #148 (permalink)
Houston, TX
 
 
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mfbreakout View Post
We have failed A up and failed A down- these are ACD levels/set ups.

I am not sure what do you mean by " Not really ACD levels" ?

It's very typical of CL to rotate and your short is right on the MONEY. Whether it gives 40 ticks etc. and how long

it takes- we never know but ORL area is a good target identified by you.

I just meant that the pivots were not nearby. The premise behind the trade was a failed A up, enough time passed and no attempt to take it higher etc. Learnt all this from you and thank you very much for all of your help.

Now, if I could only learn to hold on to the trades. Just got out at 98.20 but logically, I should be holding for ORL. But happy with 31 ticks.

Thanks for your support.


Last edited by LogicalTrader; December 10th, 2013 at 10:52 AM. Reason: Premise was failed A up not down
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  #149 (permalink)
BOSTON, MA
 
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LogicalTrader View Post
I just meant that the pivots were not nearby. The premise behind the trade was a failed A down, enough time passed and no attempt to take it higher etc. Learnt all this from you and thank you very much for all of your help.

Now, if I could only learn to hold on to the trades. Just got out at 98.20 but logically, I should be holding for ORL. But happy with 31 ticks.

Thanks for your support.


What difference would have it made in your life if instead of getting out at 98.20 , you got out at 98 etc.

Not much. Try not to be too focused on ticks on rotational days. CL can easily bounce to 98.50 again and you will

be not feeling good.

30-40 ticks is good on rotational days.

Do 2 trades per day on 2 cars for 30 ticks. You are looking at $1200 day.

1200x14 days= $16,800. Looks pretty good to me.


Nice short and trade.

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  #150 (permalink)
Manchester, Greater Manchester, UK
 
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LogicalTrader View Post


I am VERY impressed by your potential targets analysis.
Nice one. Analysis has to be right before you can trade it I guess?
Looks like you are REALLY getting this.
Thanks again for the Gomi stuff. That's helping a lot

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