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The Logical Trading Journal
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The Logical Trading Journal

  #131 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
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Double ACD Power

Starting today, thanks to @mfbreakout for pointing me in this direction, I am working with both Brent and WTI. Not trading Brent but using it for context. All trades are still based on core ACD concepts - nothing changes.

Day 1 of this started with a bang. A down in Brent against Monthly pivot high coincided with failed A down in WTI against daily pivot high, with divergence, took the long and happy with what I see so far.

Its a mixed day when looking at both - BRN below DP, WTI above, A down in BRN, failed A down and failed A up in WTI. I plan to just sit on my hands and observe as much as I can.

Thanks again MFB.

Here's what I was looking at for this trade:

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Note: Brent chart is not optimized. My ACD programming needs to be modified a little bit. It is displaying US session levels where it shouldnt.
Also, chart says entry 96.22 and exit 96.56 but its really 97.22 and 97.56


Last edited by LogicalTrader; December 5th, 2013 at 11:26 AM.
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  #132 (permalink)
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Excellent

Congratulations Logical this is by far the best trading journal I have ever read.


btw how long did you trade ES in simulator using the ACD principles before trading it with real money?



Also would you recommend someone learn the principles from dalton's "mind over matter" first or learn acd from logical trader first? or it doesn't matter?

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  #133 (permalink)
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budfox View Post
Congratulations Logical this is by far the best trading journal I have ever read.


btw how long did you trade ES in simulator using the ACD principles before trading it with real money?



Also would you recommend someone learn the principles from dalton's "mind over matter" first or learn acd from logical trader first? or it doesn't matter?

Thanks. A couple of clarifications:
  • I do not yet trade real money
  • I do not trade ES nowadays, I am fully focused on CL only

For me, trading a simulator does not work so I trade a TST combine which is the closest to trading cash you can get without risking real money. Its not real money but for me, I am able to treat as a live account.

EDIT: I dont mean to discount the value of sim trading. If I had a replay feature like TOS has, I would be practicing past sessions everyday. Unfortunately I dont and my programs cannot be coded for TOS. Maybe they can be for NT but I haven't gotten to it yet.

ACD works better for me. I have studied volume profile concepts more than market profile and ACD works better for me given my current state of mind and current stage in my journey towards a successful trading career. Eventually, I want to be able to look at the market from several different points of view but since I am just about turning a new leaf, adding more will only confuse me so in the interests of keeping things simple, I have kept my trading setups strictly based on ACD concepts modified per mfbreakout's trading ideas. If you are interested in ACD, I would recommending reading the book a couple of times (maybe you will get it all in 1 read, took me a few reads though) and then look up mfbreakout's journal. That is where I learnt all this. Still, it will be up to you, how well you learn this. I believe the saying "you can lead a horse to water, but you cant make it drink" applies very well to learning trading.

Wish you the best.


Last edited by LogicalTrader; December 6th, 2013 at 12:33 PM.
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  #134 (permalink)
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LTP account

I have decided to continue trading the LTP account starting Monday. It is best I dont wait until later on in the month since price action will die down as the holidays approach and I have until Dec 27th to trade the remaining 7 days.

I will be making minor tweaks to the trading plan over the weekend and not change it for the remainder of the LTP session.

Today's trading is not representative of my trading plan since I missed much of the morning session so not logging it. Had a dinner meeting with my customer (I consult part-time to pay the bills) and couldn't prepare for the day until later this morning.

So far, Brent vs WTI analysis is as follows:
  • There is correlation in the price movements between the two, but it is not something to be used for confirmation of entry. Yesterday was an A down in Brent and they cracked through the MP High while WTI had an A up. One could have traded Brent from the short side and WTI from the long side and still made money in both.
  • Brent adheres to ACD concepts the same as WTI if not better. They can be traded individually without considering what the other is doing but when ACD levels coincide between the two, it does help with gaining more conviction of taking a setup like it did yesterday.
  • Interestingly, trading WTI based on its own Euro OR prior to pit open and trading Brent based on its own US OR after WTI pit open also works very well. Based on the UR OR time, Brent made a perfect failed A down trade yesterday and also today although today there wasn't much follow through. I feel combining both Euro and US ORs for both products to get context has merit and should be studied further.

Granted, I have been looking at Brent for just 2 days, but these are the observations so far.

Brent Pivot Dance Today after news spike

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Correction in chart: 111.03 is OR Low and not OR High. It just bounced off of this level after cracking through the DP low but as I mentioned in MFBs thread, you wouldn't develop a short context at the break of the DP because of this:


Mark Fisher
If the market stays within the pivot range for longer than three times the duration of the opening range (meaning 30 minutes if the opening range is 10 minutes), then that pivot is a meaningless concept for that day. Exit the trade and move onto something else. You want to see something happen when the market reaches these reference areas. If not, get out of the trade.

Mark B. Fisher. The Logical Trader: Applying a Method to the Madness (p. 61). Kindle Edition.



Last edited by LogicalTrader; December 6th, 2013 at 01:44 PM.
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  #135 (permalink)
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Minor tweaks to trading plan

Minor tweaks to plan for remainder of the LTP account trading that starts tomorrow.
  • In order to simplify things, I will stick to trend trades only and no scalps. This resolves the question of whether or not to move stops once trade goes in favor or to take premature exits based on unfavorable order flow. Basically, once a trade is taken, the stop will not be moved and only planned exits will be taken.
  • To help with this, I programmed the ADR to plot such that it shows how much room is still available for price to run (obviously, this is not a given), as the trading day's range approaches the ADR, I will look to exit if in a trade or call it a day if not. I am using the 3, 10 and 30 day ADR and plotting the max and min of those in relation to current day's movements. As current day range expands, the ADR high/low move closer to price. Chart below.

This reduces the number of entries I will look for to either 1 or 2. This also means that if I miss a trade or get out too early, I might be done for the day. And that is fine.

As the US session approaches, I will look for price in relation to the Daily Pivot range, 3 Day Pivot range, Euro OR and WOR. Then take into account the current ADR in relation to the max/min of the 3, 10, 30 ADRs. If price near ADR, I will look for failures of ACD levels, Asian and Euro session ranges etc. If price boxed overnight, will keep options open accordingly. Then as the US OR forms, take that also into account and see what the market gives that day. Exits will be also be at these logical levels.

I still do not feel totally comfortable but cannot point out what it is. It feels I am missing something. I have all these levels and ideas in the plan but I am missing that 1 setup that I always look for. I cannot figure out what my bread and butter setup is. Maybe that is what it is and I will let it come to me as time progresses.

5 min chart with ADR (12/02/2013)

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  #136 (permalink)
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trading

" Based on the UR OR time, Brent made a perfect failed A down trade yesterday and also today although today there wasn't much follow through. I feel combining both Euro and US ORs for both products to get context has merit and should be studied further."


There is no UR OR time for Brent. A product has to be traded per ACD method where it is domiciled.

Just as someone trading WTI during Euro session can not use OR per his time, one can not trade Brent per US OR.

Since i do not track Brent to trade WTI, sorry can not provide more input. Maybe someone will step up and share

how he/she trades WTI during NY session based on Brent price action during euro session.

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  #137 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
" Based on the UR OR time, Brent made a perfect failed A down trade yesterday and also today although today there wasn't much follow through. I feel combining both Euro and US ORs for both products to get context has merit and should be studied further."


There is no UR OR time for Brent. A product has to be traded per ACD method where it is domiciled.

Just as someone trading WTI during Euro session can not use OR per his time, one can not trade Brent per US OR.

Since i do not track Brent to trade WTI, sorry can not provide more input. Maybe someone will step up and share

how he/she trades WTI during NY session based on Brent price action during euro session.

Thanks MFB. You are right that the a US OR time cannot be used for an product not traded in the US per Fish. I was just making this observation because the maximum volume in Brent is traded at the US open and more volume is traded during the US session than before it. When I look at the volume comparison between Brent and WTI, it is very similar. This is probably explained by the fact that Brent is traded on the ICE. Attaching chart below. Its similar every day.

So far been only 2 days observing Brent which does not mean much and there isnt enough data to state anything conclusively. What I am talking about is just a theory and as data accumulates, it will either mean something or it wont. I will keep refining my observations as time progresses.

Thanks for your support.

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Last edited by LogicalTrader; December 9th, 2013 at 01:30 AM. Reason: Replaced with better image showing axis labels
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  #138 (permalink)
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I used to use Brent as indicator as well but in my case it did not make any sense because the volume is as low as in CL before pit open. That does not mean that it does not fit to you but these are my experiences. So I stay focused on CL.

After Pit open volume is higher in CL and as you know i like to use volume.


Last edited by Balanar; December 9th, 2013 at 05:19 AM.
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  #139 (permalink)
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LogicalTrader View Post

I still do not feel totally comfortable but cannot point out what it is. It feels I am missing something. I have all these levels and ideas in the plan but I am missing that 1 setup that I always look for. I cannot figure out what my bread and butter setup is. Maybe that is what it is and I will let it come to me as time progresses.

Remember, there is no 100% setup. Every setup has its winners and losers.

However, it is very important to feel comfortable.

I believe that the holy grail is in you or rather in your mind (always think positive, stay positive, stop valuing ONE trade, one trade of hundreds is not important, ... ).

There are several good setups out there but due to a bad condition of a trader or mental weakness the execution of a setup is not as good as it should be.

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  #140 (permalink)
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Failed A up Short


Failed A up setup today. Short from 97.79, holding for lower targets

EDIT 8:50 AM: Exited position at 97.42. Everything says we see at least 97.23 but I didnt have it in me to hold any longer.

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Last edited by LogicalTrader; December 9th, 2013 at 10:52 AM.
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