I will be adding a hypothesis section going forward entirely based on ACD. I have been programming the entire ACD method since yesterday - all of it - including the macro number line. This is in an attempt to do it right. So far, I dont have everything programmed so I will only include those factors that I can see now.
Yesterday's Daily Pivot range: 94.59 - 94.50. Yesterday settled below the range at 93.72 setting a bearish sentiment coming into today.
Daily Pivot range: 93.98 - 93.80. Currently market has gone through todays range setting a bullish tone.
3 day rolling pivot range is 94.86 - 94.10. Since 10/30, market has remained below the 3 day rolling pivot range and every time it pulled back to the range low, it was rejected and pushed down. Similar behavior occurring right now. Pullback to 94.10 and it has formed a double top so rolling pivot range bias remains down with price wedged between the daily pivot range and the 3 day rolling pivot range
Monthly open range: 96.65 - 94.36. We are below the MOR and the MORL remains resistance. MOR bias for today is also down.
So far thats all I have. Overall the bias is bearish with the exception of today being a possible plus day since it opened below the daily pivot and has broken through it. The current price area between 94.10 - 94.45 should be heavy resistance. Market will have to go through this area and above 94.74 and then 94.86 and close above this mark to see any serious buying interest. On the other hand, the only resistance area is the daily pivot so if we see 93.80 and below, everything is back in full bear mode.
In the near future, all this text will be replaced by 1 image of my chart that shows all of the above. Most likely Monday onward that will be the case.
Will wait until at least 7 AM before putting on the first trade.
7:07: Long 94.03 based on the premise of today being a plus day. Resistance at 94.36 and 94.45 so will look for exit around these. 15 tick stop.
7:20: Next time will do a better job of entry. Could have gotten a much better fill. Anyway, it is what it is. Leaving target at 94.43. Back around pit open.
7:54: That got stopped out. The area and premise is still good for a long but I will wait until slightly past pit open. The whole day is still ahead.
8:01: Another one stopped out - to the exact tick. Now I am gun shy and the trade is actually taking place without me. Used bigger stops today but no good. Will have to refine my entry. This is not going to work otherwise.
8:13: Immediately foreseeable trading range could be 93.68 to 94.36. Feels like a rotational day. I have 1 more bullet left so will fire when everything lines up. 8:15: OR established: 94.08 - 93.68. Possible scenarios: 1) Failed A up followed by A down, this has a good probability since rolling pivot is just above the ORH; 2) A up through the pivot, which would be true above 94.84, remote possibility; 3) A down after bounce from daily pivot high (right here at 93.98). All things considered. The only long that could be taken is out of the question now. So will focus on shorts from a failed A up or an A down.
8:35: Cracked the ORH but no confirmation yet.
8:39: Short 94.01 on premise 1) above. Orderflow confirms now. 8:47: Orderflow still confirms but stop may not be sufficient. The real resistance is 94.10 and stop is 94.16.
8:52: Done for the day. It might just be a plus day today. Will ponder how I could have gotten and stayed long from below. Very disappointing day again. Called it right, just couldnt execute.
8:59: What a difference timing makes. The long would have been good for 40 ticks and now we could see the WORL. They are definitely pushing this.
9:01: WORL and still pushing.
9:34: Still have to keep going and practice. Long 94.32 in the other combine account. Stop to par. Target is WORH 94.74. LTP is close to max daily loss so wont trade it anymore today.
9:43: Raised target to 94.84. Could raise higher depending upon order flow. Also, I forgot that the OR today does not form until 9:35. DUH! That short was totally invalid.
9:45: Got out at 94.72. If this is a plus day, we have a lot more higher to go but cannot push with 1 contract so happy with 40 ticks. Wish things were a little bit different and this trade was in the LTP account. If .74 clears, .86 is next and then who knows.
10:10: Long 94.50 from WORL.
10:11: Stop to par. Target 94.86
10:21: They are still pushing up with heavy volume, really heavy. This either goes up quick or I am out.
10:24: Out at 94.86 for 36 ticks.
10:27: Wow, first hand experience of what a plus day could be like. We are now above the rolling pivot range and that means a bunch of stops are taken out and the downtrend from 10/30 is technically over for ACD traders.
10:41: Calling it quits for the day. Was watching this pullback to 94.86 and it was a valid long but dont want to push it today. 3 losses, 2 wins and nicely green. Good day for a confidence boost after the disastrous start.
First off, if Mark Fisher reads my journal entry today, he will probably get a good laugh out of it. Most of the pre-market analysis was incorrect. The numbers I mean. Some were correct, some were off - not by much but still. The funny part is my commentary based on what I thought the pivot numbers were when they really were not there.
Anyone reading this, beware of my numbers until I get it right.
My LTP account is on life support now. One more day like today and its gone. It doesn't worry me though. I will trade it tomorrow and if it lives, I will trade it for the remaining 6 days too. Somehow, I dont feel as anxious or fearful as yesterday. Mostly because of the pre-market preparation I put in even if it was partly wrong. Now that I know what the correct levels were, I am even more amazed. Need to get my program written so I dont get it wrong like today. 93.68 was actually the daily pivot high - go figure. Didnt know it at the time. What a fantastic day it would have been if I knew that before hand. Instead of trying to go long at 93.98, I would have waited because that where the asian low was too. It all makes sense now.
Very excited about this. Cant wait until tomorrow
Last edited by LogicalTrader; November 6th, 2013 at 10:18 PM.
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I will post ACD market prep Monday onward when all of my programming is complete.
No trading in the LTP account until then. But will trade my other combine account.
Based on Daily and rolling pivot ranges, the bias is bullish. The bounce off of 94.50 overnight set this tone. Resistance upward is 95.51-95.56. I expect and will trade based on an upward rotational day. This is still based on limited analysis of the ACD system. Cant wait until its all programmed.
7:58: 94.09 is the rolling pivot low (I think). Forceful move below that and we are back in full bear territory. Otherwise its still a rotational upward day.
8:02: Long 94.20
8:03: Quick stop out for 15 ticks and long again at 94.11
8:07: Stop to par.
8:09: Out for 27 ticks. This could go more but I have to take quick profits while still trading 1.
8:15: Todays OR: 95.02 - 95.01. 101 ticks
8:27: Orderflow is short now here at WORL. Either there is a huge volume push up or we may see a move down.
8:42: So far pushing up well on decent volume. Have to get past 94.56 and then 94.71 for full bull mode, if they cannot get past 94.56, we are rotating lower.
9:00: Pivot broken on heavy volume. Was that it? Back to the macro downtrend?
9:16: Short 94.06. Premise is pullback to pivot low. Orderflow confirms. 12 tick stop. Hoping my numbers are correct and hoping for an A down now.
9:20: Longs are still trapped. Should at least see a new low or I am analyzing this waaay too much. Stop to par anyway.
9:31: The longer it stays below 94.01 the better it is for the trade. I am hoping for 93.66 as my target. In hindsight, I should have gotten out at a new low around 93.86 but I am sort of stuck now so it will either be a par stop or 93.66 seems logical.
9:41: Definitely an A down now. Lets see how far it will go. So tempted to take 20 ticks
9:46: Shoulda coulda woulda. This is still a short trade right here from 94.10. Now what do I do. Got stopped out at entry, enter again at previous spot?
9:59: That was poorly managed. Clearly saw the short opportunity, had 26 ticks in hand, let that come back to stop at par and now it goes again. Learning experience, thats what it is.
10:03: Thats a very heavy push attempt down at 93.90 area. Some algo is absorbing a whole bunch of orders.
10:09: I am just happy to see I am getting it right. If we get to 93.66 is almost as good as a win because it proves this stuff works - got to just read it right and react on time.
10:23: Got the same level, same setup again. Short again at 94.06. 12 tick stop. Last trade of the day whatever the outcome.
10:29: Stop to par. Either it goes now or too much has been sold already.
10:33: Stopped at par and one more attempt from 94.21 short. Either this is a stop run before the move I am looking for or I am done for the day.
10:53: Raised stop to 15 ticks. Errand to run. Leaving target at 93.66. The big picture is that big money has already exchanged hands today. Will be a breakeven day worst case.
12:40: Some day I will overcome my urge to prove the market wrong.
12:58: Order flow based scalp. Long 94.30. Looking for 94.56
1:01: Stop to par.
1:10: Had 16 ticks, got stuck on a level again.
1:15: Short 94.23, orderflow scalp again.
1:21: Another scratch. Done for the day. Will have to adjust targets for such scalps to be also based on order flow.
Last edited by LogicalTrader; November 7th, 2013 at 02:21 PM.
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7:16: Late start today. I thought 94.20 would be good support but price traded below it by 30 ticks and now its back so not sure anymore. Getting good short confirmation at WORL but red reports at 7:30 so will stay out. Actually had stop order at 94.41 and then realized about the reports.
8:05: Long 94.17 from developing OR low. Target WORL. 12 tick stop. Needs to clear this area first - go above .25-.27
8:07: Stop to par.
8:10: Out at 94.47 for 30 ticks. This has the makings of a very good long. Too much short inventory still could get taken out. Could easily see a new high but I am sticking to reasonable targets.
8:15: Todays OR: 94.55 - 94.09
8:27: Short 94.56 based on globex high rejection. Need a bit more orderflow in favor
8:29: Scratched. No need to rush into anything. I will go when everything lines up.
8:33: Would have scratched now if not 4 minutes ago. We could see higher now based on orderflow. Will monitor WORH now.
8:49: Twiddling thumbs, watching algos working on minor orderflow imbalances and sucking in 1-2 lot traders. No real edge in the short term. As of electronic session start, cumulative inventory became 0 and is now going down. There was no major imbalance for me to capitalize on so if this goes down, so be it. I can only trade what I can understand. Got my setup from 94.20 area and executed. Now twiddling thumbs and getting real education - screen time.
9:00: Saw this develop and almost went long at 94.43. I can see a new high already. Lets see how it looks at 94.74 WORH.
9:13: Long 94.42
9:18: Stop to par. May not work out unless they really want to see higher - meaning it will need more than expected buying
9:20: No go for this one. Most of these are really just scalps or scratches so its fine. I am (as of now) not interested in anything less than 20 ticks. Maybe this will change if I can see this pattern well enough.
9:32: Long 94.27 ahead of the daily/rolling pivot
9:36: Wasnt a good read. Gave up 12 ticks.
9:39: That was a good volume move through the pivot. Shift of bias now.
9:51: Short 94.16. Someone just threw about 400-500 buy orders into the market I think. Premise for the trade is pullback to pivot in anticipation of an A down through the pivot.
10:00: Battle of the bots going on right here. Caught in between. It is still advantageous to be short from the 94.20 level.
10:03: I should re-read the book . Ended up being a failed A up followed by a failed A down - just didnt get it right.
10:10: Long 94.38. Last trade of the day if stopped. There is more room for upward move so will hold until WORH. It has to get past WORL and then .55 first so will protect as soon as I can.
10:24: Short 94.46 based on WORL resistance and orderflow supports. Last trade if stopped. Looking for 94.20 area at least.
10:35: Stop to par. 2nd huge order into the market, the previous one was buy, this one a sell both greater than 300 contracts. Havent seen something like this so far.
10:38: Another scratch.
10:48: Long 94.46. Target 94.74. Stop already to par. Been sitting on this for over 10 minutes now. It was fun to watch the details.
11:06: 4 scratches today. Thats at least 50+ ticks left on the table.
11:07: Done for the day. Another breakeven day. Good learning experience. Going forward, orderflow trades will have a target equal to the stop, even it it is 10 ticks
1:30: Took 3 longs thinking its a C up but it wasnt because there was no A. 2 stopped out at par and 1 for a full loss. Still breakeven on the day because of a couple of scalps in between. Obviously, I need to learn my material well enough so that it is in the subconscious and be more proactive. These 3 longs were totally reactive, without thinking or any anticipation. Cannot possibly do this live.
1:37: Note: The late day spike went exactly to 94.91 which is the monthly pivot low.
Last edited by LogicalTrader; November 8th, 2013 at 02:38 PM.
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ACD programming is not yet complete. Its tough to get it right. So many details that one would just miss if not studied in detail.
7:12: Long 94.14, 10 tick stop. They have been just sitting here for a while now. Going by what orderflow tells me.
7:15: Stop to par. Volume is expected to be lower today with it being Veterans day.
7:22: Orderflow still strong in favor of long. Target is 94.45 at daily pivot low
7:26: Out at 94.41 for 27 ticks.
7:59: Back. It did go to my target and reversed. Might have shorted 94.45 if I was at my desk but good to see the theory was right.
8:14: Todays OR: 94.48 - 94.11. High probability failed A against the pivot could setup today. Will wait for that. And 94.20 is shaping up to be a good support point so far. Multiple pushes down, still no go.
8:30: Short 94.40 from daily pivot low resistance. Stop is above daily pivot range high.
8:45: Time stop coming up in 7 minutes or so. If it has to go down, it better do so in the next 6-7 minutes.
8:51: Stopped out at 94.51 and short again at 94.49 which I am starting to regret now. WORL is 94.61 and previous close at 94.60
8:52: Scratched it. It was too impulsive. Will wait for more evidence. There is no rush.
8:57: Short 94.59 from WORL and previous close. We are above daily pivot so will have to see 94.45 quick otherwise will bail again. That was a good decision to scratch earlier.
9:01: Failed to read it right again today. MFB got long at the same place I did and is still holding. Maybe I am reading too much into this. Its safe to say that the pivot broke with definitive force so we could still see a lot higher. Obviously the bias shifts now to the upside.
9:11: Totally blew it today. What's a good A through the pivot? Why is this still hindsight? It was a long at the break of 94.55. Why was I shorting? Back to the classroom. Done for the day.
9:33: Long 95.11 and 95.01 (Average 95.06). Dont approve of this trade since it is a revenge trade and not per plan. I dont trade 2 contracts. But had I not goofed up, this was a legitimate long with 1 contract only. 1 contract off 95.32. Final target is 95.47 ahead of monthly pivot high. Stop is at par. According to some projections, we could see 96 today or at least 95.80
9:40: All shorting is being absorbed. We are yet to see a "buying climax" when a bunch of stops get hit and shorts throw in the towel. Or they keep selling until the buying algos give up but thats unlikely. High probability of seeing another high of the day.
9:47: We did see a new high - by 1 tick. I was expecting more than that. Stop still good at 95.06
10:08: took the stop. Still think we should see a new high. At least test 95.50 area. I am done for the day now. Platform shut down. Back to the classroom. Back to programming.
Took another long from WORL and held it for 32 ticks so ended up nicely green today but what a blunder in the morning hours. It took me a while to realize that my idea was wrong. And again, I set out to prove the market wrong even after I realized I was wrong!
The difference between an experienced trader like @mfbreakout and an inexperienced one like me is that I got out of my long from 94.14 and anticipated a failed A against the pivot and he held on to his long in anticipation of a good A up through the pivot.
Had I held on, my journal would be much shorter today.
Always look on the bright side. So the bright side is that it only gets better from here. Eventually I will see these setups beforehand like mfb.
Last edited by LogicalTrader; November 11th, 2013 at 07:32 PM.
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Late start again today. We are above most levels I care about so I am currently bullish.
8:00: Long 95.03
8:03: Took the stop. Will try once more unless we crack below 94.90
8:09: One more try from 94.91
8:12: Selling is relentless.
8:14: Bias shifts to short below 94.77. They cracked through the daily pivot again today and I got caught on the wrong side.
8:16: Todays OR: 95.15 - 94.67. Possibility of failed A down against WORL. Confusing analysis.
8:25: Short 94.68 from pullback to daily pivot low in anticipation of a good A down through the pivot. The caveat is the WORL at 94.61 so will protect as soon as I can.
8:30: Stop to par. Target globex low.
8:39: Time stop approaching in 6-7 minutes if not get stopped out at entry. So far WORL has held. Hoping to see below 94.50 before the time stop is up. Went about 22 ticks in favor.
8:42: Scratch trade.
8:51: Long 94.67 on the premise of a failed A down. Enough time has passed.
8:57: Stop to par. Cannot read orderflow that well today. Every move is requiring heavier than usual buying or selling.
9:00: They will have to move past 94.77 with more volume for this trade to work. So far that is not the case.
9:06: Took the stop. Another scratch. Cannot figure it out today. Immediate orderflow is slightly down. Maybe we see a minor flushout of buyers and I can get back in. Otherwise, it is what it is. A learning experience.
9:11: In hindsight, should have kept stop below WORL. Thought about it several times but wanted to be consistent with what I do. Note for the future: A failed A down takes a while to play out and got to give it room. Target was a new high of the day so will take some consolation if we see the move play out, even if it is without me.
9:17: Well Neo, you killed this trade. But good call so a pat on the back for you.
9:30: Long 95.13. Anticipating move to continue to previous daily high levels of 95.38 and 95.40. 15 tick stop.
9:33: Done for the day.
9:41: One last try. Long 94.92. Orderflow is extremely imbalanced in favor of longs. Several levels to lean on here so feel really good about this trade.
9:45: Rules are rules. No discipline, no victory. Scratched and will call it a day no matter how much I want to get back at the market.
Instead of looking at what usually happens, I have been trying to find events that do not happen so often. The most common trade in the ACD system is a failed A and I am making this too complicated for my own good.
Today was a day to literally go out there and pick up the money lying around. Failed A down, followed by failed A up, followed by a C down (or good A down). An ACD trader cannot possible ask for more.
I have been rushing into trades, looking for them instead of letting them come to me (as a couple of good traders have already pointed out)
Also getting rid of the smaller time frame charts now. Will focus primarily on the 5 minute chart. I am just all over the place because of these charts looking at orderflow changes every few trades. Thats just not worth it.
All of my focus now has to be on patience - wait, wait and then wait some more and be the last one to get in as MFB says. Thats the plan going forward. The method works, the trader needs to step up now.
Last edited by LogicalTrader; November 12th, 2013 at 11:04 PM.
This is the TradeStation ELD that plots the 3 sessions on any chart.
There are 2 indicators in the ELD:
ACD Generator: Plot this on a 5 min chart, adjust the Sessions and OR begin/end times in the input parameters. Make sure you have at least 7 days worth of data in the chart to be able to see the WOR. This stores all calculated values using ADE.
ACD Plotter: Plot this on any chart. Make sure that the ADEInterval input value is the same as the interval for the generator chart. If the generator is on a 5 min chart, this should be 5. Also have at least 7 days worth of data in this chart to be able to see the WOR.
Please PM questions.
Last edited by LogicalTrader; November 12th, 2013 at 11:08 PM.
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7:12: Price banging against daily and rolling pivot low. If it stays below 93.37-93.40 area, it is bearish. The close yesterday was bearish with respect to the pivot range. Plan is to be patient and wait for trades to show up. 94.04-94.12 is the next area if it breaks through 9350 right here.
8:01: Short 93.53. Fading the move to developing OR high.
8:08: Scratched it.
8:10: Almost got long at 93.50 but will let the OR form and let the market tell me what to do.
8:15: Today's OR: 93.17 - 93.65.
8:35: 20 minutes past OR and we have a confirmed A up. Will look for pullbacks for long as long as we stay above 93.40. A break above 94.12 would be extremely bullish so will look for that as well.
8:57: Long 93.62 from pullback to ORH.
9:01: Going to give it some room so keeping stop at 93.50
9:05: Stop to par now. Too much has hit the offers and been absorbed. Either it continues or longs are trapped short term. So stop to par it is. If they continue buying, good for me. If the algos determine a juicy stop run below, no problem. I will get long after that.
9:14: Stopped at par.
9:45: Didnt get the conviction to get in long again and it did go to my target.
9:58: Done for the day. I anticipated this move - probably would not have held it so long but it was a possible scenario. They broke through the pivot again - this is the 3rd time in the last as many days I think. Eventually I will see this beforehand. Got to be patient until then.
10:07: Amazing seeing this happen everyday. If I shift my thinking slightly, this is a gold mine. Once they moved above 93.40, it was almost as if we would at least see 94.04 (same thing the past few days). There is no looking back now that we are past both 94.04 and 94.12. This is a good A up through the pivot (both of them). Its full bull mode.
Last edited by LogicalTrader; November 13th, 2013 at 11:10 AM.
Maybe I am wrong with my thoughts, but as a reader I see the following "problem".
I think many traders see themselves in your words.
What I see is, that you pulled your stop to breakeven too fast.
I know this problem very well, but it is just the fear that you have.
The fear to get a loss.
Check your last trades where you got stopped out on breakeven and check if it was your fear that told you to pull the stop to breakeven.
Look @mfbreakout, have you ever seen him pulling the stop to breakeven after a couple of minutes? I think he is perfect in what he is doing. Maybe he is so kind and tells us something about his stop loss management.
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